The Metro Vancouver Real Estate Thread

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by scryer

If I were to speculate with no evidence to back myself up whatsoever...

Vancouver would probably make most of its money from the port fees. It's not necessarily jobs that Vancouver would capitalize on.

However I predict that a fair amount of jobs would be created in Vancouver if the pipeline does go through. I think that we will be needing to make some upgrades (both large and small) to our ports to handle the increase in ship traffic, maybe more ship pilots would be hired to accommodate the larger traffic, and I also predict that eco-scientists of various practises will be hired to properly monitor and protect the environment.... not to mention additional administrative support for all of the above. But again, these are just a shot-in-the-dark predictions.

Obviously most of the jobs are in Alberta but I think that Vancouver would attract related jobs ontop of the port fees.

Now to house these employees is another story... (back on topic)

For baseless speculation, that's a pretty fair point... but then couldn't we get that revenue and/or job creation by any kind of overseas export, not just crude oil?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by scryer

If I were to speculate with no evidence to back myself up whatsoever...

Vancouver would probably make most of its money from the port fees. It's not necessarily jobs that Vancouver would capitalize on.

However I predict that a fair amount of jobs would be created in Vancouver if the pipeline does go through. I think that we will be needing to make some upgrades (both large and small) to our ports to handle the increase in ship traffic, maybe more ship pilots would be hired to accommodate the larger traffic, and I also predict that eco-scientists of various practises will be hired to properly monitor and protect the environment.... not to mention additional administrative support for all of the above. But again, these are just a shot-in-the-dark predictions.

Obviously most of the jobs are in Alberta but I think that Vancouver would attract related jobs ontop of the port fees.

Now to house these employees is another story... (back on topic)

I believe the port fees all go to the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority, a federally-created body.

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I believe the port fees all go to the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority, a federally-created body.

Ports would be busier, shipping busier, offices for shipping would be needed, all these create jobs. And of course they spend money that creates additional jobs. Then all the cleanup crews on standby would create more jobs. Then maintenance of the pipeline would create more jobs. As Alberta’s oil economy grows those people can afford more goods a large portion of which will come from us creating more jobs.

Maybe direct jobs aren’t high but indirectly a bunch would be created. A ton of money would go to our government and First Nations allowing for more spending and again more jobs. People keep saying that wages aren’t keeping up with housing costs, so this would be a step to help this.

You can’t argue that the pipeline wouldn’t benefit our economy. The reason we’re against it is environmental and social not economic. You can look at all the predicted benefits of the LNG line as an example of the benefits a pipeline brings although the LNG comes from BC so we get even more from it. However just because Alberta is a different province doesn’t mean we shouldn’t encourage their economic development as they are Canadian too and in all honesty they probably all come here for vacations to spend their money in winter which is great for us.

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

..The third myth is that the <Transmountain> project will generate significant economic gains to B.C. The project will create short-term construction jobs and about 313 permanent direct jobs in B.C., which is a positive. But the job gain is small compared with the 72,000 new jobs created in B.C. in 2016 and could be more than offset by the risk of job losses resulting from oil spills. Vancouver, for example, estimates between 3,000 and 13,000 person-years of employment could be lost due to a spill...

https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/op...t-the-trans-mountain-pipeline-1.15051607



You should walk around Kerrisdale sometime, apparently you are clueless about the level of Mainland Chinese investment in Vancouver real estate.

So your arguments for one ethnic group taking over our province is backed by what you saw as you were walking around Kerrisdale? Have you been to Surrey lately? You’ll be stunned ������ Anyway a lot of Chinese are Canadians so I think saying you see Chinese people and assuming their foreign is really shitty of you to say.

Just because someone is a different color shouldn’t make you assume their foreign that’s clear racism. European buyers and investors make up a ton of our foreign buyers. No research backs your racist viewpoint and most opposes it. All you have as evidence is racist speeches with no research behind them. It must really grind your gears that the NDP leader is Brown.

I don’t disagree that there is investment from Mainland China in Vancouver. But there’s investment from everywhere here so why is mainland China’s money worse than say money from India or Britain? And to point out, many of us (and if your union then likely your pension fund is) invest in US stocks and other foreign investments so I don’t think you should be preaching what you practice.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by misher

So your arguments for one ethnic group taking over our province is backed by what you saw as you were walking around Kerrisdale? Have you been to Surrey lately? You’ll be stunned 😂 Anyway a lot of Chinese are Canadians so I think saying you see Chinese people and assuming their foreign is really shitty of you to say.

Just because someone is a different color shouldn’t make you assume their foreign that’s clear racism. European buyers and investors make up a ton of our foreign buyers. No research backs your racist viewpoint and most opposes it. All you have as evidence is racist speeches with no research behind them. It must really grind your gears that the NDP leader is Brown.

Since you didn't quote it, I assume you didn't read the Macleans article? Do so, and get educated.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by misher

Ports would be busier, shipping busier, offices for shipping would be needed, all these create jobs. And of course they spend money that creates additional jobs. Then all the cleanup crews on standby would create more jobs. Then maintenance of the pipeline would create more jobs. As Alberta’s oil economy grows those people can afford more goods a large portion of which will come from us creating more jobs.

I can see the ports and shipping argument, but treating potential oil spill disasters as a benefit of the pipeline is some straight up Weyland-Yutani sh*t. Again, there's plenty of other things to import and export.

Originally Posted by misher

You can’t argue that the pipeline wouldn’t benefit our economy. The reason we’re against it is environmental and social not economic. You can look at all the predicted benefits of the LNG line as an example of the benefits a pipeline brings although the LNG comes from BC so we get even more from it. However just because Alberta is a different province doesn’t mean we shouldn’t encourage their economic development as they are Canadian too...

Though the predicted benefits mostly come from Kinder Morgan themselves, and they have a track record of making numbers up on the spot.

If Alberta wants us to help them develop, by all means, but then they should find a different industry to base their economy around (preferably, one that doesn't spill, or hold the entire country hostage to the Americans or Saudis).

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

I can see the ports and shipping argument, but treating potential oil spill disasters as a benefit of the pipeline is some straight up Weyland-Yutani sh*t.

Yep, misher is getting all excited about a grand total of 50 permanent jobs in BC.

[misher]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

I can see the ports and shipping argument, but treating potential oil spill disasters as a benefit of the pipeline is some straight up Weyland-Yutani sh*t.

This was mentioned because there was an article discussing how cleanup crews that were hired in anticipation were shutdown. I was discussing economic benefits and you'll note that I said the arguments against the pipeline were social and environmental. I'm not saying go pipeline! I'm saying economically yes go pipeline, socially and environmentally -- maybe not. Personally I feel that the ending for the pipeline was in the wrong place. I agree a spill would be devastating in the right area though the ships are double hulled now so the risk is much lower than it was decades ago when spills were happening. A reminder that we are not discussing stopping a pipeline from being built, we're discussing adding another parallel to the current pipeline. We've had a pipeline since 1953. Our biggest oil spill from a ship was the oil spill from the MV Marathassa, a grain transport. The BP oil spill was from an oil drilling platform drilling in the ocean. A lot of people who are anti pipeline don't realize that most spills weren't from tankers.

As for 50 jobs...it would be more than this. A typical bulk tanker employs 20-25. Then there's the people in docks that maintain/repair/service them. Direct employment by Kinder Morgan in BC may be 50-100, but indirect jobs such as jobs created by the industry or job opportunities for BC people created would be much larger.

Anyway whether your for or against the pipeline you must recognize that logically its going to be built once the government finishes the court required work. So we can oppose and delay it but its coming no matter what. I don't want to turn this into a for/against pipeline argument thread so lets turn and go back to discussing real estate.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by misher

As for 50 jobs...it would be a lot more than this. A typical bulk tanker employs 20-25. Then there's the people in docks that maintain/repair/service them. Direct employment in Vancouver may be 50-100, but indirect jobs such as jobs created by the industry or job opportunities for BC people created would be much larger.

That's assuming tanker crews would be hired only from BC, that we'd get enough business to support new drydocks, and that we'd be a major part of the industry rather than just the middleman between Alberta and the buyers.

Also, that OPEC members can't arbitrarily raise or lower oil prices whenever they feel like it (as they have before) and send our dollar plummeting again. Seems best in the long term to be less dependent on the industry, not more.

[whatnext]

The bubble deflation continues:

Vancouver Condo Sales Drop to Lowest Total Since October 2012

Vancouver’s condo market continued its downwards trend in the month of October. This should generally come as no surprise considering Real Estate markets are incredibly slow moving and are highly dependant on the availability of mortgage credit. In other words, this trend is likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future unless we see a shift in either domestic credit, (mortgage credit growth is currently at its weakest pace of growth in 18 years), or we see large capital outflows from China. This seems unlikely given their need to maintain capital reserves in order to fight a trade war and growing economic instability and slowing real estate market.

These two trends help explain why Vancouver condo sales fell 28% year over year to their lowest total since October 2012.

As a result of weaker than usual condo sales, listings are beginning to stagnate. This has allowed inventory to build rather quickly, jumping 74% from the same month last year. While historically condo inventory remains low, this trend should certainly put sellers on notice...

https://vancitycondoguide.com/vancouver-condo-sales-drop-october-2012/

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

The bubble deflation continues:

Vancouver Condo Sales Drop to Lowest Total Since October 2012

Vancouver’s condo market continued its downwards trend in the month of October. This should generally come as no surprise considering Real Estate markets are incredibly slow moving and are highly dependant on the availability of mortgage credit. In other words, this trend is likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future unless we see a shift in either domestic credit, (mortgage credit growth is currently at its weakest pace of growth in 18 years), or we see large capital outflows from China. This seems unlikely given their need to maintain capital reserves in order to fight a trade war and growing economic instability and slowing real estate market.

These two trends help explain why Vancouver condo sales fell 28% year over year to their lowest total since October 2012.

As a result of weaker than usual condo sales, listings are beginning to stagnate. This has allowed inventory to build rather quickly, jumping 74% from the same month last year. While historically condo inventory remains low, this trend should certainly put sellers on notice...

https://vancitycondoguide.com/vancouver-condo-sales-drop-october-2012/

Sales are down from last year but are up quite a bit since September 2018. And 2017 is hard to compare to as people were rushing to buy before the new mortgage rules came into effect so sales were artificially raised. If you look at the 5 year average we’re not doing bad. Condo sales are over 20% which is supposed to raise prices and house sales are over 10% which may lower prices slightly but not a lot. Condo prices are going up right now. The taxes actually pushed a lot of luxury buyers into competing for affordable housing (condos). And surprisingly the higher end commercial market (condo buildings, office, industrial) is insanely strong right now despite the new rental restrictions. Lower end commercial is slower but still going strong as a lot of business owners want to own their own office for the control/freedom rather than lease.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by misher

Sales are down from last year but are up quite a bit since September 2018. And 2017 is hard to compare to as people were rushing to buy before the new mortgage rules came into effect so sales were artificially raised. If you look at the 5 year average we’re not doing bad. Condo sales are over 20% which is supposed to raise prices and house sales are over 10% which may lower prices slightly but not a lot. Condo prices are going up right now. The taxes actually pushed a lot of luxury buyers into competing for affordable housing (condos). And surprisingly the higher end commercial market (condo buildings, office, industrial) is insanely strong right now despite the new rental restrictions. Lower end commercial is slower but still going strong as a lot of business owners want to own their own office for the control/freedom rather than lease.

Condo prices are going down. This is the beginning of the end.

You'd make a great violin player on the Titanic.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Condo prices are going down. This is the beginning of the end.

You'd make a great violin player on the Titanic.

Maybe so, finally.

But whats the "end" mean for Vancouver? 20, 30% off? I'm having a hard time imagining anything over 25-30% without some sort of economic apocalypse and it seems like non RE news around here have been too positive to warrant that.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by misher

Condo prices are going up right now.

Here's last month's REBGV data "The benchmark price of an apartment property is $687,300" [source]

And here's this month "The benchmark price of an apartment property is $683,500." [source]

In case it's too hard to calculate - that's a half percent drop - again. Over the past three months condo prices have dropped 3.1%, and inventory continues to build.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by rofina

Maybe so, finally.

But whats the "end" mean for Vancouver? 20, 30% off? I'm having a hard time imagining anything over 25-30% without some sort of economic apocalypse and it seems like non RE news around here have been too positive to warrant that.

Not sure. Could be 25-30% off the peak, which maybe takes us back 2-3 years? Not world ending, I'd say.

[GenWhy?]

Are the re-sales or new product? I can't believe new product is going down in price (much, at all?) due to increasing costs in other areas. We're making units smaller and more flexible to compete with a market that cannot / will not buy units past a certain point and with same land costs as we started with, but higher trades and buildings costs.

We're selling some - and seeing it more - 1-beds sell for higher because of them practically being a 2-bed, as well as smaller units which bring the price down. It's all numbers play.

[misher]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Here's last month's REBGV data "The benchmark price of an apartment property is $687,300" [source]

And here's this month "The benchmark price of an apartment property is $683,500." [source]

In case it's too hard to calculate - that's a half percent drop - again. Over the past three months condo prices have dropped 3.1%, and inventory continues to build.

I was looking at over the past 12 months but yes totally agree too hard to calculate. In the end with real estate all being worth a different price a simple average by price/sales is not a very accurate estimate.

Detached looks like it’s way down but it may just be a lot of cheaper housing is selling while high up houses are staying off the market, being subdivided, or aren’t selling. I doubt prices are down 20% as some estimates suggest.

Rather than say prices are down/up I rather say there’s downward pressure on house prices and upward pressure on condo prices. Right now detached is almost 2% below even at 10% so there’s some pressure down. And condos are slightly over 20% so there’s tiny amounts of upward pressure. People keep comparing sales numbers to last year and yes there way down but that just means prices rise slower. The economy would have to collapse before there’s dramatic price decreases as we saw in America during America’s mortgage crisis and once this crises ended prices went back to before and rose higher because the economy strongly dictates prices.

Investment seems to have focused on commercial and condos for now.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by misher

I was looking at over the past 12 months but yes totally agree too hard to calculate. In the end with real estate all being worth a different price a simple average by price/sales is not a very accurate estimate.

Detached looks like it’s way down but it may just be a lot of cheaper housing is selling while high up houses are staying off the market, being subdivided, or aren’t selling. I doubt prices are down 20% as some estimates suggest.

If REBGV quoted an average price, you might be right. They don't though, precisely because the mix varies, they create a benchmark price, which takes into account the mix of units sold.

So condo prices are falling, and have fallen consistently for five or six months, and house prices have fallen much more than that. As there was another interest rate hike last week, and there are more anticipated (indications are maybe four or five more) the situation isn't likely to change - for the resale market, prices will continue to fall, sales probably won't pick up in a hurry, and inventory will increase, unless potential sellers just withdraw from trying to sell.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by misher

I was looking at over the past 12 months but yes totally agree too hard to calculate. In the end with real estate all being worth a different price a simple average by price/sales is not a very accurate estimate.

Detached looks like it’s way down but it may just be a lot of cheaper housing is selling while high up houses are staying off the market, being subdivided, or aren’t selling. I doubt prices are down 20% as some estimates suggest.

Rather than say prices are down/up I rather say there’s downward pressure on house prices and upward pressure on condo prices. Right now detached is almost 2% below even at 10% so there’s some pressure down. And condos are slightly over 20% so there’s tiny amounts of upward pressure. People keep comparing sales numbers to last year and yes there way down but that just means prices rise slower. The economy would have to collapse before there’s dramatic price decreases as we saw in America during America’s mortgage crisis and once this crises ended prices went back to before and rose higher because the economy strongly dictates prices.

Investment seems to have focused on commercial and condos for now.

I've seen prices fall 15-30% for properties, lots of them SF homes in prime rezoning areas. These were "artificially high" to begin with, just riding with "the market". Shit is hot with commercial / office and industrial.

I think the market is balancing out... where people found the market has real limits. "You want X$$ for your property? It doesn't make financial sense... next!" And so on.

[misher]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

I've seen prices fall 15-30% for properties, lots of them SF homes in prime rezoning areas. These were "artificially high" to begin with, just riding with "the market". Shit is hot with commercial / office and industrial.

I think the market is balancing out... where people found the market has real limits. "You want X$$ for your property? It doesn't make financial sense... next!" And so on.

Agreed, more of a balance than price falling per say. I think a lot of the prices last year were just throwing it out there to see if anyone would bite. Saw some crazy strata Owners insisting on a mil+ a unit in a 50+ unit building as if there building would sell. New condos are still going strong it seems, prices can't go down much as they'd make a loss so instead there offering incentives.

Rezoning is going to rely heavily on city hall's new plans. I am hopeful with their promises to push to improve permit processing times, reduce or at least examine CAC's and open up density. Thank god the NDP didn't try to apply Speculation tax on developments in progress I know the speculation was scaring developers off.