Amazon HQ2 thread

[dtc]

Originally Posted by UrbanImpact

Miami has a brand new high speed train station, a downtown people mover, an elevated heavy rail line, a commuter train line and one of the fastest densifying downtowns in the country.

I would love to say that Miami has a high speed train, but certainly that's not the case, and certainly Brightline isn't one, which speed is really disappointing. But it's fair to say that the railway system's state is a national/federal issue and not a municipality one.

Also Miami is certainly not the only US city dealing with a shameful transit system. Almost only NYC has a big subway system and even there the subway is almost falling apart.

That being said, I would be surprise if Amazons chooses Miami because Miami will be really affected by climate change and the sea-level rise. (obviously NYC too, but Miami geographically seems more expose).

• Video Link

[ssiguy]

I was listening to a program a few weeks ago on CBC about the Amazon decision and they brought up the point that as this is dragging out, the better the chance for Toronto. The reasoning behind it actually makes some good sense. As they noted the decision has probably already been made. So the point was, why the delay in the announcing the winner? They stated that Amazon & Bezos maybe deliberately delaying the announcement till after the US midterms due to political repercussions............in other words it have an effect on the election and no winning city in the US would come remotely close to the political repercussions of putting the 2nd headquarters in Toronto.


Such a decision would play into Trump`s and most Republicans view that Canada is stealing our jobs and are unfair trade partners. Trump would milk such a decision for all it`s worth as it plays into his `America First` rallying cry. Bezos hatred of Trump is well known and he would never do anything that would help him politically which such a decision would. Hence the delay until after the midterms knowing by the next election the whole issue will have faded away.


Obviously Toronto has a lot going for it...........lower labour rates, the dollar discount, a high quality of life, national healthcare which would save Amazon US$600 million/year, inviting to foreign workers, excellent transit, very good schools, the fastest growing hi-tech workforce in NA, a world financial centre, and a huge swath of developable land near downtown soon to be served by commuter rail, RER, and a subway.

Whether you agree with it going to Toronto or not, he certainly raised some good points and answers the question that everyone has been asking..........why the delay?

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by dubu

that wall will have to be real high around every big city by the ocean, that sounds crazier then what elon musk would do.

Such dams (primarily to keep storm surge out) already exist. They are common in the Netherlands and even exist in places like Stamford and Providence. St. Petersburg in Russia recently completed something one: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Petersburg_Dam

Here's what's proposed for NYC: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Harbor_Storm-Surge_Barrier

[The North One]

People citing the Netherlands are delusional, that's a totally different country with a completely different situation, system, history, and culture. It's not comparable or applicable to the US and they aren't exactly in a good position either.

Surge barriers are bare minimum stuff with a plethora of problems and not long-term solutions, even if that infrastructure gets built.

[skyscraperpage17]

One other theory to explain some of the repeat visits is that individuals who are critical to the HQ2 decision weren't in attendance the first time around.

This happens all of the time in huge corporations like Amazon. Thus, they may mean nothing.

[Zapatan]

Originally Posted by chris08876

The cost would also be 4-5 billion to finish the tower which I believe they say it'll cost 5 billion (HQ2). Now that would be the dream wouldn't it. And with the Foster design.

But thats a hell of a dream.

They would also be leasing the space. I think they want to own the building(s)... where ever it winds up in, so that would eliminate WTC2 as an option. Plus IDK if the BIG or Foster design would cater to their type of work. Does Amazon really need trading floors?

Yea true. Although I would love to see DC get it since they seem to be in need of some major urban development.

[jd3189]

DC getting it would be nice too. If New York gets it, it should be part of a plan to finally build 2 WTC or should go to Newark. Other than that, Amazon would just be another drop in a big pond. It’s like trying to establish HQ2 in Silicon Valley, they would be competing with other big companies like themselves. That’s why Miami and Atlanta are still good options despite lack of deep urban bones.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

With all the hoopla over outsourcing US jobs overseas, the most visible company in America after Apple is not placing its HQ2 in Canada.

I'd have to agree. Toronto might check off every single box and then some but the backlash in the US would be insane. It's just a little odd that outsourcing to Canada has never been an issue yet it's the country that will suffer the most.

[dc_denizen]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I was listening to a program a few weeks ago on CBC about the Amazon decision and they brought up the point that as this is dragging out, the better the chance for Toronto. The reasoning behind it actually makes some good sense. As they noted the decision has probably already been made. So the point was, why the delay in the announcing the winner? They stated that Amazon & Bezos maybe deliberately delaying the announcement till after the US midterms due to political repercussions............in other words it have an effect on the election and no winning city in the US would come remotely close to the political repercussions of putting the 2nd headquarters in Toronto.


Such a decision would play into Trump`s and most Republicans view that Canada is stealing our jobs and are unfair trade partners. Trump would milk such a decision for all it`s worth as it plays into his `America First` rallying cry. Bezos hatred of Trump is well known and he would never do anything that would help him politically which such a decision would. Hence the delay until after the midterms knowing by the next election the whole issue will have faded away.


Obviously Toronto has a lot going for it...........lower labour rates, the dollar discount, a high quality of life, national healthcare which would save Amazon US$600 million/year, inviting to foreign workers, excellent transit, very good schools, the fastest growing hi-tech workforce in NA, a world financial centre, and a huge swath of developable land near downtown soon to be served by commuter rail, RER, and a subway.

Whether you agree with it going to Toronto or not, he certainly raised some good points and answers the question that everyone has been asking..........why the delay?

no major research universities to compare with MIT or Stanford
R&D spending per capita in Canada is much lower than the US
financial center that is focused on resource extraction and banks, not tech innovation
conservative corporate and risk-taking culture
quality of life advantage vs major US cities is debatable
too expensive real estate already
corporate tax advantage vs US is gone now

[Sun Belt]

Bezos is going to need New Jersey's $5 billion give away.

He has personally lost [on paper] about $31 billion since THE PEAK.
--Amazon stock has dropped 397 points since September approx 20% decline.

Don't feel too bad for him, he's still up over $40 billion ytd.

[pip]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

no major research universities to compare with MIT or Stanford
R&D spending per capita in Canada is much lower than the US
financial center that is focused on resource extraction and banks, not tech innovation
conservative corporate and risk-taking culture
quality of life advantage vs major US cities is debatable
too expensive real estate already
corporate tax advantage vs US is gone now

Get back to me when America has anywhere near other developed country's cities with crime - especially crime, poverty, abandonment, access to healthcare, life expectancy and education. Food deserts in a developed country, just wow. Of course there are some high performing American cities but they are few.

[LouisVanDerWright]

Bezos doesn't give a shit about a few billion of paper value, he with be worth a trillion before he dies at this rate.

Originally Posted by The North One

People citing the Netherlands are delusional, that's a totally different country with a completely different situation, system, history, and culture. It's not comparable or applicable to the US and they aren't exactly in a good position either.

Surge barriers are bare minimum stuff with a plethora of problems and not long-term solutions, even if that infrastructure gets built.

Yeah and the Netherlands also isn't built on a giant block of limestone Swiss cheese. A wall around Miami sounds great until you realize the entire state is built on rock that's literally a giant series of underground rivers. Sea levels rise there and the water will just come up through the ground. Miami is the Venice of the next few centuries....

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

no major research universities to compare with MIT or Stanford

University of Toronto is pretty solid. It isn't MIT or Stanford (or even Michigan or UCLA, for that matter), but it's a globally renowned university.

And Canada has one huge advantage: they can get the workers, from anywhere on the planet.

[pip]

^and they don't have an administration actively trying to impede it

[10023]

Canada doesn’t have the innovation ecosystem that the US has. It just doesn’t. Canadian start ups tend to move the the US when they reach ‘scale up’ phase for this reason. Obviously Amazon is well beyond this point but they still want to be where innovation is happening, which isn’t Canada.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by 10023

Canada doesn’t have the innovation ecosystem that the US has. It just doesn’t. Canadian start ups tend to move the the US when they reach ‘scale up’ phase for this reason. Obviously Amazon is well beyond this point but they still want to be where innovation is happening, which isn’t Canada.

Even 2-3 years ago that was true but that last area of weakness, scaling up, isn't the Achilles' heel it used to be. The US is still the 'go to place' for global tech but there's definitely something happening in Canadian tech atm. Recent data suggests that the Toronto - Waterloo tech eco-system has reached a tipping point. In 2016, the Toronto - Waterloo Corridor added more tech jobs than any other metro/region in north America. In 2017 it did it again adding more than The Bay Area, Seattle, and Washington combined. If this trend line continues through 2018 The Corridor will jump 2 spots and represent the largest concentration of tech jobs in north America after the Bay Area.

As far as innovation is concerned, Canada has always churned out lots of innovation/innovative companies. You're correct that historically the bulk of this has headed to the US or been gobbled up by US tech. Canadian innovation has largely gone to build US tech. Is that still true? Once again, recent data suggests that brain drain is slowing significantly. Talent is staying in Canada, Canada is seeing large investment in tech, and all the global tech heavyweights are pouring in. The big global tech firms know about the quality and quantity of talent; that's why they're all bulking up and piling in. Amazon would be one of the last to do so.



Whether all this will translate into the HQ2 is doubtful because of the political atmosphere in the US not deficiencies in the eco-system. Landing the HQ2 would be a feather in Toronto's cap but largely irrelevant for Toronto at this point. Toronto tech will continue to boom with or without Amazon. Talent that would have gone to Amazon will simply head to other firms in The Corridor.

Then there's Vancouver and Montreal. They're both a couple years behind the Toronto - Waterloo Corridor imo but look like they'll get there as well. All 3 of these Canadian clusters are seeing major investment and very rapid growth. As far as employment goes, Canada is already more tech heavy than the US but the gap looks set to widen. There are ~5 million tech workers in the US vs. 830,000 tech workers in Canada. (Based on population you'd expect about 550,000 in Canada.)


https://betakit.com/toronto-added-most-n...n-2017-with-wages-lower-than-any-us-hub/

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Crawford

University of Toronto is pretty solid. It isn't MIT or Stanford (or even Michigan or UCLA, for that matter), but it's a globally renowned university.

And Canada has one huge advantage: they can get the workers, from anywhere on the planet.

I'd also include the University of Waterloo in that conversation. In a 2005 visit to campus, Gates said that some years the company has hired more people from Waterloo than any other university in the world. Other Silicon Valley firms recruit heavily from UW. Waterloo is also home to the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics which includes the Stephen Hawking Centre.

Btw, the Times Higher Education World University Rankings 2018 had UCLA in 15th, Michigan in 21st, and Toronto in 22nd. U of T is behind according to this ranking but it's splitting hairs to say they aren't comparable.


https://uwaterloo.ca/science-and-busines...-hiring-waterloo-co-op-students-30-years
https://uwaterloo.ca/stories/waterloo-top-three-san-francisco-bay-area-tech-talent
https://www.timeshighereducation.com/world-university-rankings/2018/world-ranking#survey-answer

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I was listening to a program a few weeks ago on CBC about the Amazon decision and they brought up the point that as this is dragging out, the better the chance for Toronto. The reasoning behind it actually makes some good sense. As they noted the decision has probably already been made. So the point was, why the delay in the announcing the winner? They stated that Amazon & Bezos maybe deliberately delaying the announcement till after the US midterms due to political repercussions............in other words it have an effect on the election and no winning city in the US would come remotely close to the political repercussions of putting the 2nd headquarters in Toronto.

I think they're delaying it until after the midterms, too. But I assumed they were doing that because they didn't want the HQ2 announcement to compete with the election in the news cycle. If they are worried about competing in the news cycle then it's going to Newark. Or maybe Philadelphia.

Hundreds of pages ago, some were speculating in this thread that Amazon knew all along where they wanted HQ2 to go, and that this was a ploy to get a good deal. I think if Amazon did know all along where they wanted to go, then it's going to Toronto.

And it's possible that they still haven't made a decision yet.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by jd3189

DC getting it would be nice too. If New York gets it, it should be part of a plan to finally build 2 WTC or should go to Newark. Other than that, Amazon would just be another drop in a big pond. It’s like trying to establish HQ2 in Silicon Valley, they would be competing with other big companies like themselves. That’s why Miami and Atlanta are still good options despite lack of deep urban bones.

It's not going to Manhattan. Maybe Brooklyn or Queens, but they'd have to really not care as much about cost as they claimed. Newark seems the most likely candidate in the tri-state, since it is relatively cheap, access to transit, and gives access to the NY labor pool.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Btw, the Times Higher Education World University Rankings 2018 had UCLA in 15th, Michigan in 21st, and Toronto in 22nd. U of T is behind according to this ranking but it's splitting hairs to say they aren't comparable.

OK, but no one follows that ranking. Michigan and UCLA aren't even ranked that high within the US, so wouldn't be ranked that high globally.

US News ranking is the standard, at least within US. And globally, in most disciplines, Michigan would be generally considered more prestigious than Toronto, both in terms of academics and social prestige.