Quote:
Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut
Bearing in mind that we're already near the halfway mark after 33 years; Chicken Little rhetoric notwithstanding, even with 5-car trains every 75 seconds, the Expo probably is going to start running into problems in the '40s and '50s. Better to start thinking about relief lines now than later.
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It should actually last much longer than that. It started with about 25% capacity in the 80s, so realistically, I'd say it'll reach capacity sometimes between 2070 and 2120.
Back in 2010, the Expo line upgrade strategy predict a demand of 25,700 pphpd (86%) by 2041 for high-growth scenario, or about 23,000 pphpd (77%) for low-growth. However, right now we're far below even the low-growth case due to a period of no growth or even decline in the 2010s. Both scenario assume a peak of 17,500 pphpd by 2018, but in 2017, the peak was only 14,100 pphpd.
And don't forget, once the Broadway extension opens, it's expected to take some load off the busiest segment, as people no longer have to go through downtown to connect between Canada Line and Expo/Millennium Line.