Vancouver Civic Election 2018

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

What’s wrong with that?

5 story buildings across the city would be amazing and make the whole place more livable. Condos look pretty but are pretty inward facing. There’s a need for diversity. More of the same same boring green glass point towers is suffocating.

Emphasis on "across the city." I agree for the most part, a Vancouver-wide rezoning for duplexes and walkup apartments would be great, buuuut that's not what the Council-elects have been saying. COPE/Green and their elected members are committed to "retaining character homes," "adding secondary suites," and "preserving neighbourhoods," and that's it; Pete Fry's repeatedly expressed concerns over the Kettle-Boffo's height and density (just twelve storeys - not exactly an Amazing Brentwood).

Seems like we've just elected three NPAs, only that two like bike lanes and the other doesn't.

[GMD]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Not necessarily. But you will probably see the stupid citywide duplex zoning Vision rushed in get the axe. Likewise you may well see the end of rampant demolition of older rental buildings for luxury condos, even if they contain a token, overpriced "affordable" component.

Seems unlikely, CBC asked the Greens, NPA and Kennedy Stewart about it back in September and they all basically said they would leave it in place and go from there. Big difference between opposing something and reversing it.

If we're not knocking down older rental buildings, and sfd is untouchable, that basically means no construction in Vancouver period (aside from duplexes, I guess). It's hard to imagine a worse policy for the environment, so naturally the 'Green' party will be in favour.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by GMD

Yes, that's a good point, but still, they'll be looking over their shoulders a bit more.

I think they'll also be salivating at being the next mayor than learning lessons from the election.

[misher]

I think Ken Sim's going to lodge a complaint about Stewart's use of union paid workers to circumvent donation rules if the recount doesn't work. It looks like he hasn't given up?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c...date-aren-t-breaking-any-rules-1.4854323

https://globalnews.ca/news/4579532/vancouver-election-possible-recount/

Speaking to people in Vancouver I know Stewart's team was relentless in their canvassing with a lot of spam calls and door knocking. I think if this didn't happen Stewart would have lost.

Personally Stewart's election probably benefited me financially more than Sim's election, so not like I'm against him being elected. But I do feel the union employee 🞵🞵🞵🞵 was underhanded.

I love how Stewart says "

he is still the only mayoral candidate who has disclosed his donors and he fully supports a review of campaign rules after this election.

in response to the below actions by unions:

Complaints were made to Elections BC after it was discovered that four members of affiliate unions of the Vancouver and District Labour Council were being paid by their unions to canvass.

Municipal elections are governed by the Local Elections Campaign Financing Act, which caps third-party donations at $1,200.

Municipal election campaigns officially kick off under new rules
Nola Western, deputy chief electoral officer with Elections BC, said the office received specific complaints, but according to election regulations, the canvassers are operating above board.

"Third parties are permitted to canvass and knock on doors. They are permitted to pay people to do that. What they can not do is conduct those activities on behalf of a candidate or an elector organization," said Western.

Using a fictional candidate to explain, Western said as long as people campaign independently and have not spoken with the candidate, they are free to do what these union staffers are doing.

"They happen to like Joe, so they have people knocking on doors saying we think you should vote for Joe, but they are not doing it with Joe," she said.

[a very long weekend]

This is a depressing "empire strikes back" election in a lot of ways if you're pro-growth and pro-affordable housing.

That said, if this is the council, Kennedy Stewart is probably the right man for this council, in my opinion. He's for sure open to facts and he has no party to guide him. People worry about the unions' influence on him, but they're actually quite pro-growth. Also, Stewart quit what looked like possibly a lifetime gig in Ottawa to run, so Vancouver mayor looks like the end of the line for him, politically. Also good.

Obviously, he's not a Hector Bremnor. For the life of me, I can't understand how that guy thought he could muscle his way into the NPA mayoral nomination - I'm guessing it was Marissen the whole time. People need to realize this Marissen guy's modus operandi, which is to find someone he can sell, sell him (to people with money), take the money, and then win or lose to walk away better off.

Bremnor would have won a council seat, possibly at the expense of another councilor, but Sim would have taken mayor but for Bremnor's move.

The mayor may be able to get bunch of good policy out of this council, but I bet the NPA will never break ranks, so it'll be limited to tax increases rather than real fixes. Probably they'll force Stewart to side with the progressives. You may not believe me, but just watch. The NPA has had a lot of turnover and do bring in outsiders, but they're a fairly tight crew. I was at a dinner a few months ago and I recognized many of the attendees from a similar dinner in 2005. Marissen thought he could do it again, but the old liners smelled blood and went with one of their own. No councilor will go rogue, it means too much long term to be cut out of the crew that has once again showed they can turn a shoe salesman (or whatever irrelevant job Sim has) into a near miss mayoral candidate.

Imo further, since the housing crisis is going to get worse under the NIMBYs, the provincial government should be under ever greater pressure to step in. The NIMBYs won big regionwide at the expense of the NDP, so there's nobody for the NDP to protect at the city level. The government should unilaterally create growth zones where cities cannot zone, except to restrict parking, aesthetics, and maybe some small amenity contribution/inclusionary housing component. Removing zoning on the westside would cause too much blow back, but you could do something close.

Finally, the NDP should stay away from reforming the electoral process on the at large system, but show introduce a mayoral instant runoff. District elections will create permanent interests against growth and dynamism in favor of stagnation and property values. But no mayor imo should be elected with 28% of the vote, just makes a mockery of the process.

My sense of things, if you've read, I'm sorry if it's tedious. I'll return to my normal anti-Planning Dept. posts forthwith.

[misher]

Originally Posted by a very long weekend

This is a depressing "empire strikes back" election in a lot of ways if you're pro-growth and pro-affordable housing.

That said, if this is the council, Kennedy Stewart is probably the right man for this council, in my opinion. He's for sure open to facts and he has no party to guide him. People worry about the unions' influence on him, but they're actually quite pro-growth. Also, Stewart quit what looked like possibly a lifetime gig in Ottawa to run, so Vancouver mayor looks like the end of the line for him, politically. Also good.

Obviously, he's not a Hector Bremnor. For the life of me, I can't understand how that guy thought he could muscle his way into the NPA mayoral nomination - I'm guessing it was Marissen the whole time. People need to realize this Marissen guy's modus operandi, which is to find someone he can sell, sell him (to people with money), take the money, and then win or lose to walk away better off.

Bremnor would have won a council seat, possibly at the expense of another councilor, but Sim would have taken mayor but for Bremnor's move.

The mayor may be able to get bunch of good policy out of this council, but I bet the NPA will never break ranks, so it'll be limited to tax increases rather than real fixes. Probably they'll force Stewart to side with the progressives. You may not believe me, but just watch. The NPA has had a lot of turnover and do bring in outsiders, but they're a fairly tight crew. I was at a dinner a few months ago and I recognized many of the attendees from a similar dinner in 2005. Marissen thought he could do it again, but the old liners smelled blood and went with one of their own. No councilor will go rogue, it means too much long term to be cut out of the crew that has once again showed they can turn a shoe salesman (or whatever irrelevant job Sim has) into a near miss mayoral candidate.

Imo further, since the housing crisis is going to get worse under the NIMBYs, the provincial government should be under ever greater pressure to step in. The NIMBYs won big regionwide at the expense of the NDP, so there's nobody for the NDP to protect at the city level. The government should unilaterally create growth zones where cities cannot zone, except to restrict parking, aesthetics, and maybe some small amenity contribution/inclusionary housing component. Removing zoning on the westside would cause too much blow back, but you could do something close.

Finally, the NDP should stay away from reforming the electoral process on the at large system, but show introduce a mayoral instant runoff. District elections will create permanent interests against growth and dynamism in favor of stagnation and property values. But no mayor imo should be elected with 28% of the vote, just makes a mockery of the process.

My sense of things, if you've read, I'm sorry if it's tedious. I'll return to my normal anti-Planning Dept. posts forthwith.

Well NPA and Stewart both said they’d shake up the planning department so you got your wish.

[a very long weekend]

^ My "wish" is to abolish discretionary review on non-historical buildings in favor of 'as of right', to eliminate the UDP review unless it's an egregious case or prominent site, to ban parking minimums (and setbacks, and minimum lot coverage requirements, and all sorts of other restrictions like shadowing, sightlines, etc.) and to completely torpedo the value of the built in favor of a land value, so as to encourage higher use.

Stewart and the NPA won't do this. Stewart is cautious and captured, the NPA is a presiding party, they won't actually govern in any real way. It was surprising that a Bremnor even got the NPA council nod, since he clearly is pretty well informed on the economics of housing.

[ssiguy]

If the city had any balls and wanted to put their density money where their political mouths are, they would ban ALL SFH destruction unless it was up zoned to duplex/rowhomes/townhomes/ or apt/condo...……….no SFH homes destruction just to be replaced with another SFH. It's this kind of development that has led to the destruction of thousands of perfectly good homes, neighbourhoods, and the commodification of the city where the house has no value but just the land it sits on. If these flippers had to buy properties and actually had to live in them as is then real estate would be half the price. Brampton did this specifically to avoid the Vancouver model while allowing renovations to increase the size of the house by 25%.

The Mayor may have to make some compromises on issues but I don't think on housing and I'm sure the empty house 3X increase will go ahead. The electorate is truly fed up and want BOLD action as does the business community who are finding it impossible to get even basic labour little alone highly skilled because they simply can't afford to live there even with good wages. Even the developer backed NPA would have a hard time explaining why the empty home tax shouldn't triple as they are effectively coming to the rescue of empty home owners who probably don't even live in the country and to justify their actions to businesses that can't find employees because their potential employees can't find housing.

Not only has the real estate pyramid caused huge social upheaval but has also become Vancouver's biggest economic challenge.

[whatnext]

I don’t think it is the end of affordable housing, certainly not that built with government help (what the market is building isn’t affordable). Swanson is a vocal proponent of truly affordable and if she plays her hand right she can horsetrade with the NPA or the Stewart/Green block to get it done.

[misher]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

If the city had any balls and wanted to put their density money where their political mouths are, they would ban ALL SFH destruction unless it was up zoned to duplex/rowhomes/townhomes/ or apt/condo...……….no SFH homes destruction just to be replaced with another SFH. It's this kind of development that has led to the destruction of thousands of perfectly good homes, neighbourhoods, and the commodification of the city where the house has no value but just the land it sits on. If these flippers had to buy properties and actually had to live in them as is then real estate would be half the price. Brampton did this specifically to avoid the Vancouver model while allowing renovations to increase the size of the house by 25%.

The Mayor may have to make some compromises on issues but I don't think on housing and I'm sure the empty house 3X increase will go ahead. The electorate is truly fed up and want BOLD action as does the business community who are finding it impossible to get even basic labour little alone highly skilled because they simply can't afford to live there even with good wages. Even the developer backed NPA would have a hard time explaining why the empty home tax shouldn't triple as they are effectively coming to the rescue of empty home owners who probably don't even live in the country and to justify their actions to businesses that can't find employees because their potential employees can't find housing.

Not only has the real estate pyramid caused huge social upheaval but has also become Vancouver's biggest economic challenge.

You realize that flippers have to live in the home to get the capital gains tax exemption for personal residences? The current empty home tax is mostly hitting developers there’s very few empty homes registered. I’ve spoken to a few people and most of them who did pay the tax it’s because they inherited a place and there’s a lot of memories, because they travel a lot, or because they have a condo in the city they were slowly moving out of into a house in the suburbs. The empty homes tax is going to increase supply so little that no one will notice it.

When there’s less than 1% vacancy the problem is clearly that we need to build more supply.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by a very long weekend

Obviously, he's not a Hector Bremnor. For the life of me, I can't understand how that guy thought he could muscle his way into the NPA mayoral nomination - I'm guessing it was Marissen the whole time. People need to realize this Marissen guy's modus operandi, which is to find someone he can sell, sell him (to people with money), take the money, and then win or lose to walk away better off.

Bremnor would have won a council seat, possibly at the expense of another councilor, but Sim would have taken mayor but for Bremnor's move.

That's an interesting view of history. Bremner was a sitting councilor for the NPA who brought a TON of new members into the party, a good injection of youth and new policy that those dinosaurs needed. Instead they took a shotgun to their own foot, disqualifying him for a BS reason, causing him and his new members to leave for a new party, run as independents, or quit their brief run at politics. For a group that labels itself as "non-partisan", and membership-run, they are a joke.

Instead they ran lame-duck Ken Sim, whom I have respect for as a business person, but the vote totals show he wasn't very strong, garnering far less votes than Kirk LaPointe did last time around, when there was a real incumbent mayor who was also moderately popular at the time, though divisive.

Personally I would have been happier seeing Sylvester, Sim, or Bremner as mayor. Instead we get another career politician...

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I don’t think it is the end of affordable housing, certainly not that built with government help (what the market is building isn’t affordable). Swanson is a vocal proponent of truly affordable and if she plays her hand right she can horsetrade with the NPA or the Stewart/Green block to get it done.

She is a left-wing nut, and one vote on council. I don't see her and the NPA agreeing to anything, except provincial government paid housing in the poorest neighbourhoods.

The West side will remain pristine for another 4 years with the NPA and Carr holding a majority of votes.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by whatnext

I don’t think it is the end of affordable housing, certainly not that built with government help (what the market is building isn’t affordable). Swanson is a vocal proponent of truly affordable and if she plays her hand right she can horsetrade with the NPA or the Stewart/Green block to get it done.

COPE/Swanson's platform: 2,000+ modular homes, free transit and citywide Wi-fi, mansion tax, rent freeze. I'm not very optimistic about either her or her party - these commies are probably going to reject anything but low-rise co-ops.

[misher]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

She is a left-wing nut, and one vote on council. I don't see her and the NPA agreeing to anything, except provincial government paid housing in the poorest neighbourhoods.

The West side will remain pristine for another 4 years with the NPA and Carr holding a majority of votes.

What people don't understand is that even if we open up zoning everywhere we don't have the construction capacity to utilize it. We're currently maxed construction-wise with little to no usable workers unemployed, just drug addicts and the mentally ill.

So the push to urbanize the West side is more of a PR stunt than a requirement. We likely could leave the West side alone and keep densifying everywhere else for 20+ years at full capacity. If we really needed the space we'd be building towers instead of low-rise and townhouses everywhere. We still have tons of room around arterials like Hastings, Kingsway, Broadway, 12th, etc. to build. We also have a lot of space in Marpole, along East Marine Drive, and Boundary.

It honestly doesn't make sense from a transportation and infrastructure perspective to density neighborhoods that lack nearby skytrain stations, nearby major arterial rods, and are a distant drive from urban centers. We still have a ton of lowrise/deatached around skytrain stations in East Van+Broadway+Marpole+Cambie+Hastings+Kingsway to upgrade that's going to occupy us for the next 20-30 years minimum. We also have a ton of room around UBC we're converting to condos for students and campus workers.

The saying is "if you build it they will come" but the question is who is available to build it and once it's built how are we going to get people from there to where they need to be?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

That's an interesting view of history. Bremner was a sitting councilor for the NPA who brought a TON of new members into the party, a good injection of youth and new policy that those dinosaurs needed. Instead they took a shotgun to their own foot, disqualifying him for a BS reason, causing him and his new members to leave for a new party, run as independents, or quit their brief run at politics. For a group that labels itself as "non-partisan", and membership-run, they are a joke.

To be fair, Bremner kind of oozes. But yeah, it's upsetting to see them rejecting any kind of new blood... even though it's entirely in-character for them.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

That's an interesting view of history. Bremner was a sitting councilor for the NPA who brought a TON of new members into the party, a good injection of youth and new policy that those dinosaurs needed. Instead they took a shotgun to their own foot, disqualifying him for a BS reason, causing him and his new members to leave for a new party, run as independents, or quit their brief run at politics. For a group that labels itself as "non-partisan", and membership-run, they are a joke.

Instead they ran lame-duck Ken Sim, whom I have respect for as a business person, but the vote totals show he wasn't very strong, garnering far less votes than Kirk LaPointe did last time around, when there was a real incumbent mayor who was also moderately popular at the time, though divisive.

Personally I would have been happier seeing Sylvester, Sim, or Bremner as mayor. Instead we get another career politician...

It's interesting how you say Hector Bremner isn't a career politician having been immersed in Christy Clark's leadership campaign in 2011, run (and lost) in New West as a BC Liberal in 2013 which he parlayed into an executive assistant gig with Rich Coleman, then jumping to the NPA in 2017. I guess at least seven years of being in thick with politicians does not a career politician make, but let's not pretend that he was just some upstart guy when he ran for the NPA in 2017.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by misher

What people don't understand is that even if we open up zoning everywhere we don't have the construction capacity to utilize it. We're currently maxed construction-wise with little to no usable unemployment.

Any sources, aside from the NPA platform? I'm actually curious on this one.

Originally Posted by misher

So the push to urbanize the West side is more of a PR stunt than a requirement. We likely could leave the West side alone and keep densifying everywhere else for 20+ years at full capacity. If we really needed the space we'd be building towers instead of low-rise and townhouses everywhere. We still have tons of room around arterials like Hastings, Kingsway, Broadway, 12th, etc. to build. We also have a lot of space in Marpole, along East Marine Drive, and Boundary.

It honestly doesn't make sense from a transportation and infrastructure perspective to density neighborhoods that lack nearby skytrain stations, nearby major arterial rods, and are a distant drive from urban centers. We still have a ton of lowrise/deatached around skytrain stations in East Van+Broadway+Marpole+Cambie+Hastings+Kingsway to upgrade that's going to occupy us for the next 20-30 years minimum.

The saying is "if you build it they will come" but the question is who is available to build it and once it's built how are we going to get people from there to where they need to be?

Kitsilano and Fairview are both part of the West Side and set to get a SkyTrain line. I know I've said supertalls are a bad fit for Broadway, but each station should at least have Joyce-Collingwood levels of redevelopment; it'll be a real shame if the NIMBYs win and we get nothing over 6 floors.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

It's interesting how you say Hector Bremner isn't a career politician having been immersed in Christy Clark's leadership campaign in 2011, run (and lost) in New West as a BC Liberal in 2013 which he parlayed into an executive assistant gig with Rich Coleman, then jumping to the NPA in 2017. I guess at least seven years of being in thick with politicians does not a career politician make, but let's not pretend that he was just some upstart guy when he ran for the NPA in 2017.

Ok that's fair but he's had other jobs. Sylvester has been loosely involved in politics as well. We just ended up picking the uber-politician. It showed in his campaign, vague promises, not a lot of detail.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

To be fair, Bremner kind of oozes. But yeah, it's upsetting to see them rejecting any kind of new blood... even though it's entirely in-character for them.

They let Glen Chernan run for their mayoral candidate. This was clearly about Hector and/or the people he brought into the party.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by misher

What people don't understand is that even if we open up zoning everywhere we don't have the construction capacity to utilize it. We're currently maxed construction-wise with little to no usable unemployment.

So the push to urbanize the West side is more of a PR stunt than a requirement. We likely could leave the West side alone and keep densifying everywhere else for 20+ years at full capacity. If we really needed the space we'd be building towers instead of low-rise and townhouses everywhere. We still have tons of room around arterials like Hastings, Kingsway, Broadway, 12th, etc. to build. We also have a lot of space in Marpole, along East Marine Drive, and Boundary.

It honestly doesn't make sense from a transportation and infrastructure perspective to density neighborhoods that lack nearby skytrain stations, nearby major arterial rods, and are a distant drive from urban centers. We still have a ton of lowrise/deatached around skytrain stations in East Van+Broadway+Marpole+Cambie+Hastings+Kingsway to upgrade that's going to occupy us for the next 20-30 years minimum.

The saying is "if you build it they will come" but the question is who is available to build it and once it's built how are we going to get people from there to where they need to be?

"Lack of capacity" - a tired old argument. Do we have enough capacity to build KM2 and LNG? Magically it will show up I'm sure. Maybe locally we should ban SFH replacement in the COV. We'll have a lot more capacity then.

Space - Yes, we have "tons of space" outside the west side, you know where we have even more space? In the west side itself. Why not blanket re-zone and let the market sort itself out?

Nobody is saying we should put an Oakridge level redevelopment at Dunbar and West 37th Ave. But we're going to have another Skytrain line that will be within spitting distance of SFHs. It's a joke at Nanaimo station, and it should be a joke along the Broadway line. The difference with Broadway is that it's also a vibrant commercial area, which should mean a better case for density.

Kits, Point Grey, and areas along the water should have West End/English Bay level density.