YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Spent a bit of time looking at AC’s longhaul schedule for next summer and came to the conclusion YVR’s not done yet.

The days rouge doesn’t operate YVR-DUB means there are three frequencies available to possibly have a new route. Whether this stays rouge or moves to mainline is a mystery.

Why I think YVR-DUB is sticking around? When they reduced the flight from 5 weekly to 4 weekly in the system. If they were going to chop this route they wouldn’t have reduced it by one day per week they would have just chopped it altogether like NGO. KIX, CDG and ZRH will rotate through two 788s.
So what happens? Start another route (or 2)? Base one aircraft in YVR? Don’t want a plane sitting on the ground for over 24 hours!

And then there’s YVR-MEL.... is there slack in the schedule? Don’t want planes sitting on the ground all day do we now!

Exactly what I've observed. And notice DUB and CDG now run on the exact same day and almost the same time... they could swap the 788 to DUB and move CDG to something else?

The extra plane needed for MEL would allow a new 3x weekly ULH (plus 7x weekly transcon)... or, they could run flight 6x weekly flight to Europe or Asia (plus 3x weekly transcon).

I feel like we're going to get an answer this week.... but this week's schedule update seems to be late.... normally the new schedule should start to show up 2.5 hr ago...

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Exactly what I've observed. And notice DUB and CDG now run on the exact same day and almost the same time... they could swap the 788 to DUB and move CDG to something else?

The extra plane needed for MEL would allow a new 3x weekly ULH (plus 7x weekly transcon)... or, they could run flight 6x weekly flight to Europe or Asia (plus 3x weekly transcon).

I feel like we're going to get an answer this week.... but this week's schedule update seems to be late.... normally the new schedule should start to show up 2.5 hr ago...

CDG departs at 1245 and DUB departs at 1520.

CDG, ZRH and KIX all depart around 1300 (1245, 1300 or 1330) perfectly aligned for a 2 plane rotation.

Air Canada has never released all their next year summer schedules all at once. They break it up over a month or two.

[LeftCoaster]

Couldn't they run DUB with an A333 from Montreal?

YUL-YVR-DUB-YVR-YUL?

I'd much prefer they pull one of the 787s out of the east and replace it with one of the new 330s, but that seems unlikely at this point doesn't it?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

YVR has a fantastic array of different aircraft flying to Europe.

Next summer will have 388, 744, 346, 343, 332, 789, 788, 75W, 772, 763

At this time there will be 103 flights per week to Europe to 10 airports on 11 carriers.

Who's flying the A343?

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Who's flying the A343?

I think it's Lufthansa. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[canlynx]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Who's flying the A343?

Edelweiss to Zurich

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

CDG departs at 1245 and DUB departs at 1520.

CDG, ZRH and KIX all depart around 1300 (1245, 1300 or 1330) perfectly aligned for a 2 plane rotation.

Air Canada has never released all their next year summer schedules all at once. They break it up over a month or two.

DUB have a later departure, but the arrival back to YVR is in line with CDG ZRH and KIX simply because the route is slightly shorter.

And yes, nothing was changed from last night's schedule update.

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Couldn't they run DUB with an A333 from Montreal?

YUL-YVR-DUB-YVR-YUL?

I'd much prefer they pull one of the 787s out of the east and replace it with one of the new 330s, but that seems unlikely at this point doesn't it?

The issue with that is... the route will need to be run daily to rotate with domestic route to YUL? Otherwise what will the plane do at YVR for the other 3 days?

I feel like it would be easier to use the 788 for DUB and convert the CDG to 333 (it would need to increase to daily though). AC already run a 333 to CDG from YUL, so instead of wasting a widebody just to do a daily YUL-YVR-YUL run (it was the case 2 years ago, not sure what the plane do for the rest of the day now), they could move it to YUL-CDG-YVR-CDG-YUL and replace the YVR-YUL with 2 7M8s? But that's just my opinion though...

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by canlynx

Edelweiss to Zurich

Yep. Lufthansa is flying the 346 to Munich.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by nname

The issue with that is... the route will need to be run daily to rotate with domestic route to YUL? Otherwise what will the plane do at YVR for the other 3 days?

I feel like it would be easier to use the 788 for DUB and convert the CDG to 333 (it would need to increase to daily though). AC already run a 333 to CDG from YUL, so instead of wasting a widebody just to do a daily YUL-YVR-YUL run (it was the case 2 years ago, not sure what the plane do for the rest of the day now), they could move it to YUL-CDG-YVR-CDG-YUL and replace the YVR-YUL with 2 7M8s? But that's just my opinion though...

Well they could run the other 3 days as a YUL destination. Not preferred of course but they could.

I much prefer your option, would be a great answer to Westjet's recently announced Calgary 787 ops too.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Spent a bit of time looking at AC’s longhaul schedule for next summer and came to the conclusion YVR’s not done yet.

The days rouge doesn’t operate YVR-DUB means there are three frequencies available to possibly have a new route. Whether this stays rouge or moves to mainline is a mystery.

Why I think YVR-DUB is sticking around? When they reduced the flight from 5 weekly to 4 weekly in the system. If they were going to chop this route they wouldn’t have reduced it by one day per week they would have just chopped it altogether like NGO. KIX, CDG and ZRH will rotate through two 788s.
So what happens? Start another route (or 2)? Base one aircraft in YVR? Don’t want a plane sitting on the ground for over 24 hours!

And then there’s YVR-MEL.... is there slack in the schedule? Don’t want planes sitting on the ground all day do we now!

According to this, YVR-DUB was operating 4 weekly last summer from May 25 to June 25.

The reason why YVR-DUB is still showing a Rouge 763 at 4x weekly in the schedules is because it's probably a carbon copy of last year's schedule when the route resumed in May.

It's a simple placeholder. This way, people can still book the flights, but changes remain highly likely. I still believe YVR-DUB will go A333, most likely rotated through a flight from YUL or YYZ.

As for new routes or two, seems to me if these were gonna happen, AC would have announced it by now, to go along with the presser about all the frequency increases on current routes out of YVR. I think it's highly unlikely that AC has new long haul routes coming to YVR for summer 2019. There simply aren't enough frames to make that happen, no matter how much down time the dreamliners seem to have in YVR. Don't forget, there has to be some slack in the schedules to allow for some routine maintenance of these birds as well.

AC hasn't showed us the whole story yet, most likely due to the fact that those 4 A333s haven't arrived yet. They still have a few months before they finalize the equipment/rotations, and they are most likely being prudent, making sure those frames will arrive on time before committing them to the schedule.

As for YVR-MEL, a simple domestic rotation solves that problem. YUL/YYZ-YVR-MEL-YVR-YYZ/YUL. Similar to what is done with YYZ-YVR SYD.

[nname]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

According to this, YVR-DUB was operating 4 weekly last summer from May 25 to June 25.

The reason why YVR-DUB is still showing a Rouge 763 at 4x weekly in the schedules is because it's probably a carbon copy of last year's schedule when the route resumed in May.

It's a simple placeholder. This way, people can still book the flights, but changes remain highly likely. I still believe YVR-DUB will go A333, most likely rotated through a flight from YUL or YYZ.

As for new routes or two, seems to me if these were gonna happen, AC would have announced it by now, to go along with the presser about all the frequency increases on current routes out of YVR. I think it's highly unlikely that AC has new long haul routes coming to YVR for summer 2019. There simply aren't enough frames to make that happen, no matter how much down time the dreamliners seem to have in YVR. Don't forget, there has to be some slack in the schedules to allow for some routine maintenance of these birds as well.

AC hasn't showed us the whole story yet, most likely due to the fact that those 4 A333s haven't arrived yet. They still have a few months before they finalize the equipment/rotations, and they are most likely being prudent, making sure those frames will arrive on time before committing them to the schedule.

As for YVR-MEL, a simple domestic rotation solves that problem. YUL/YYZ-YVR-MEL-YVR-YYZ/YUL. Similar to what is done with YYZ-YVR SYD.

YVR-DUB was 5x weekly in July-August until 2 weeks ago. I was checking the schedule every Tuesday

And adding domestic rotation will NOT solve the issue with MEL. Currently the route need one extra frame for only about 10 hours every week, and there is no spare 789 lying around to run those 10 hours because all other 789s based in YVR are doing daily runs and they are all in the sky at that time. So either one of the weekly to MEL will need to be shifted by 12 hours (which is something AC haven't done for any of their routes I believe?), or one of the 789 route need to be reduced to 6x weekly. If all MEL flight are based at YUL or YYZ, then it will use up 12 more hours, but there are still 2 planes with 3x weekly spare time left or 1 plane with 6x weekly spare time (which goes back to the first issue). So far there aren't any mainline 789 changes at YUL and YYZ that's not daily...

Also, AC don't run domestic widebody flights that are less than daily? What are they going to do for the other 3 days then?

So, either way, AC schedule change is not done yet, that's for sure.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by nname

YVR-DUB was 5x weekly in July-August until 2 weeks ago. I was checking the schedule every Tuesday

I know it was. You missed my point.

[nname]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

I know it was. You missed my point.

Last summer it was x124 at the beginning, next summer it currently scheduled for x246.

Either way, it's not a carbon copy. They already went ahead to made some changes to it.

I agree it's just a placeholder now, as it would be impossible to run the route with Rouge based on all the changes so far (unless AC Rouge 767 can teleport). But still, if they bother to remove a day, they probably not going to cancel it. And it just looks fishy to me that they remove the day to match the operating days for CDG.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Last summer it was x124 at the beginning, next summer it currently scheduled for x246.

Either way, it's not a carbon copy. They already went ahead to made some changes to it.

I agree it's just a placeholder now, as it would be impossible to run the route with Rouge based on all the changes so far (unless AC Rouge 767 can teleport). But still, if they bother to remove a day, they probably not going to cancel it. And it just looks fishy to me that they remove the day to match the operating days for CDG.

That was the clincher for me. The fact that they reduced the schedule by one day per week and they adjusted the days. If AC had no intention of flying YVR-DUB next summer they wouldn’t have adjusted the schedule they would have removed it altogether.

Air Canada’s pattern of press releases isn’t cut and dry either. If there is a significant route announcement they dont tend to lump those in with frequency increase press releases. They like to keep the fanfare at a maximum.

Summer 2019 is definitely not finalised yet.

[thenoflyzone]

It's not finalized, but I think new routes are. All that's left are frequency/equipment adjustments, which we are going to see a lot of in the next 2 months I think.

According to this (page 42), between now and December 2019, AC mainline long haul will grow by 1 frame. (+2 B789, -5 B763, +4 A333) YYZ-VIE eats up 19 hours of that frame. Not much else they can add. Yet they still found a way to increase YVR-DEL by 3 weekly for next summer compared to last, and +2 weekly on YVR-ZRH. Where else do you see room for a new route? I dont.

The A333s cant be used for expansion as AC is retiring 5 mainline B767s next year. We already know YYZ-WAW is going back to Rouge. What we don't know is the timeline by which the 767s will leave the fleet. Will it be progressively, one at a time, or all 5 will go once the A333s are here? Will they still be here next summer, or will they be gone come May.

YYC-NRT, YYZ-MXP, YOW-FRA/LHR are all 767 routes. You can "Max" YOW-LHR (not ideal for such an important route, but you can), but not much else.

Too many question marks on these routes for there to be a new route from anywhere at the moment. The only way a new route gets announced is if it's on a narrowbody, or they cancel a widebody from somewhere else.

[nname]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

It's not finalized, but I think new routes are. All that's left are frequency/equipment adjustments, which we are going to see a lot of in the next 2 months I think.

According to this (page 42), between now and December 2019, AC mainline long haul will grow by 1 frame. YYZ-VIE eats up 19 hours of that frame. Not much else they can add. Yet they still found a way to increase YVR-DEL by 3 weekly for next summer compared to last, and +2 weekly on YVR-ZRH. Where else do you see room for a new route? I dont.

The A333s cant be used for expansion as AC is retiring 5 mainline B767s next year. We already know YYZ-WAW is going back to Rouge. What we don't know is the timeline by which the 767s will leave the fleet. Will it be progressively, one at a time, or all 5 will go once the A333s are here? Will they still be here next summer, or will they be gone come May.

YYC-NRT, YYZ-MXP, YOW-FRA/LHR are all 767s routes. You can "Max" YOW-LHR (not ideal for such an important route, but you can), but not much else.

Too many question marks on these routes for there to be a new route from anywhere at the moment.

YYZ-WAW switched from Mainline to Rouge, that's another extra mainline frame.

And the timing... I believe the 763 is only going to retire by the end of the summer peak? So if they got any 333 before that, then there's room for expansion.

What are they going to do for S20, then I'm not sure...

[agamemnon]

Longtime lurker here.

In support of YVR-DUB sharing an aircraft (a 333?) with YUL-DUB:

YVR-DUB and DUB-YVR are both currently scheduled on 1357 (albeit with Rouge 763);
YUL-DUB and DUB-YUL are both currently scheduled on 246 (albeit with 7M8).

The DUB arrival and departure times for YVR and YUL are also identical: 08:30/10:15.

So maybe the schedules have been updated, and it's just the aircraft type that's lagging behind.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by nname

YYZ-WAW switched from Mainline to Rouge, that's another extra mainline frame.

And the timing... I believe the 763 is only going to retire by the end of the summer peak? So if they got any 333 before that, then there's room for expansion.

What are they going to do for S20, then I'm not sure...

Kind of an important question there at the end !

"so we're going to try YVR-FCO. But past 2019, we have no more frames left to operate that route"

"Limited time only folks.....come and get it...."

AC isn't in the business of selling pumpkin spice chai lattes !

So, what are we left with: We are October 17, 2018, a date by which, historically, AC has already announced all their new long haul routes for the next summer. And also, fleet limitations.

If I were a betting man, I'd say there's not much else - long haul wise- left to come.

Speaking of Oct 17, 2018, stop stressing and go out there and smoke some, legally for a change. All will sort itself out in the next few weeks/months.

[nname]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

If I were a betting man, I'd say there's not much else - long haul wise- left to come.

And so I modify my script to get all flight time and arrange them for aircraft utilization on all widebody mainline routes (including domestic and transcon), and this is what I got:

450 seater 777-300ER
Current schedule needs 8, but AC only have 7... Can't managed to squeeze them down to 7 though, but one of them barely doing any work other than YVR-YYZ-YVR

400 seater 777-300ER
Current schedule needs 10, and AC have 12... quite a bit of spare time at YYZ to swap thing around, but not enough for any long-haul. One of the plane would probably replace a 450-seater route, what about the other one??

Mainline 763
Current schedule only need 4... so 2 will get retired?

A330
Current schedule need 9, AC only have 8 with 4 on order. One plane is free on day 13, while another is indeed only doing YUL-YVR-YUL.

777-200LR
Current schedule need 6, and AC indeed have 6. Almost 3/4 day of spare time at YYZ

787-8
Current schedule need 8, and AC indeed have 8. About half of day of spare time at both YVR and YYZ each.

787-9
Current schedule need 29, and AC will have 29 after all order arrives, but then:

The widebody from EWR connects nicely to the DEL flight at YVR

AC 44	789 (247)	D	YVR - DEL	01:30 - 04:00	14	...2
AC 45	789 (247)	D	DEL - YVR	06:10 - 07:30	13.8
AC 548	789 (247)	D	YVR - EWR	08:45 - 16:50	5.1
AC 549	789 (247)	D	EWR - YVR	18:20 - 21:10	5.8

The long hual from YUL does require 4 planes, but one of them will be sitting at YUL almost all day

AC 5	789 (247)	D	YUL - NRT	14:05 - 15:50	12.8	...2
AC 6	789 (247)	D	NRT - YUL	17:30 - 16:30	12
AC 874	789 (247)	D	YUL - FRA	19:15 - 08:20	7.1
AC 875	789 (247)	D	FRA - YUL	10:00 - 11:40	7.7

AC 11	789 (247)	D	YUL - PVG	13:30 - 15:25	13.9	...2 (!)
AC 12	789 (247)	D	PVG - YUL	16:50 - 18:15	13.4

The trans-con YUL-YVR flight, now a 789, does not fit within the time at YUL, but does fit nicely for YVR when it connects to the MEL flight

AC 37	789 (247)	1357	YVR - MEL	22:50 - 08:00	16.2	...2 (!)
AC 38	789 (247)	2357	MEL - YVR	09:40 - 07:35	14.9
AC 314	789 (247)	D	YVR - YUL	09:10 - 16:48	4.6
AC 309	789 (247)	D	YUL - YVR	18:35 - 20:48	5.2

There is currently only one 789 run scheduled between YVR and YYZ, but it also does not fit within that schedule. It does connect nicely with the 3 night time ULH from YYZ though. So I put it this way

AC 46	789 (247)	1357	YYZ - BOM	21:15 - 21:30	14.8	...2
AC 47	789 (247)	1246	BOM - YYZ	23:30 - 05:15	15.3
AC 56	789 (247)	246	YYZ - DXB	23:00 - 19:50	12.8
AC 57	789 (247)	357	DXB - YYZ	23:30 - 05:10	13.7
AC 183	789 (247)	D	YYZ - YVR	07:30 - 09:13	4.7
AC 112	789 (247)	D	YVR - YYZ	11:00 - 18:21	4.4

AC 42	789 (247)	D	YYZ - DEL	22:15 - 21:35	13.8	...2
AC 43	789 (247)	D	DEL - YYZ	00:10 - 05:05	14.4
AC 791	789 (247)	D	YYZ - LAX	08:00 - 10:11	5.2
AC 792	789 (247)	D	LAX - YYZ	11:45 - 19:19	4.6

AC 90	789 (247)	D	YYZ - GRU	23:15 - 10:05	9.8	...2
AC 91	789 (247)	D	GRU - YYZ	20:00 - 05:00	10
AC 737	789 (247)	D	YYZ - SFO	08:00 - 10:35	5.6
AC 738	789 (247)	D	SFO - YYZ	12:05 - 20:05	5

One plane with a whole lot (23hr!) of spare time at YVR also does not fit nicely with any of these

AC 854	789 (247)	D	YVR - LHR	17:50 - 11:05	9.3	...3 (!)
AC 851	789 (247)	D	LHR - YYC	13:05 - 14:55	8.8
AC 850	789 (247)	D	YYC - LHR	18:25 - 10:00	8.6
AC 897	789 (247)	D	LHR - YVR	16:15 - 17:40	9.4

(note, LHR is the only 789 route from YYC, and AC does not run 789 to LHR from YYZ and YUL, so that's the only way to arrange this)

So that's it, unless some plane are going out of service, AC would have a minimum of a 77W, a 333 at YUL for day 13, and a 789 at YVR for day 246 to create new route and/or add frequency. Unless, they are going to make the plane spending lots of time on the ground?

On a side note, I think AC saved a plane by reducing the time sitting at LHR?

[Johnny Aussie]

I think Agamemnon has just solved part of the mystery. That schedule rotation with YUL is spot on. Looks like a 4/3 split with YUL on DUB.

So does YUL-DUB get rouged or does YVR - DUB and YUL - DUB get upgauged mainline.

Since the 7M8 is not an option on YVR-DUB perhaps it goes mainline 333.

That would mean YVR long haul goes 100% mainline and au revoir rouge! That would be a great outcome for service levels and solidify YVR as the second largest AC longhaul mainline hub.

And nnname... I admire your perseverance in solving the remaining long haul mysteries. Can I hire you? Love your initiative!