Amazon HQ2

[drummer]

And the news is:

"We've decided to simply add a few offices and a new break room with a foosball table to our Seattle location and call it a day. Dogs can come, too, of course."

[hookem]

Originally Posted by StoOgE

I expect a flurry of news shortly. Before the end of the month most likely.

Unlikely any announcement would be made before the November election, IMO.

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by hookem

Unlikely any announcement would be made before the November election, IMO.

curious why Amazon would care about local campaigns. You thinking that if they chose DC, Donnie will take credit for it? Can't imagine they care too much for local politics. Unless decision has not been made (doubtful) and they want to see a more favorable local/state incentive package.....I don't get it.

[Azul]

Originally Posted by Dcbrickley

curious why Amazon would care about local campaigns. You thinking that if they chose DC, Donnie will take credit for it? Can't imagine they care too much for local politics. Unless decision has not been made (doubtful) and they want to see a more favorable local/state incentive package.....I don't get it.

Economics, more favorable councils/governments, and funding are one thing but I believe some of the development-based propositions in these key cities are potential factors as well.

Austin voting Yes on Prop J would likely deincentivize someone like Amazon to come and provide massive development knowing that a pro-development code overhaul will not come soon enough to provide all the infrastructure they seem to desire in their new HQ2 location. You could also make the case that allowing public vote on code overhauls allows potential special interest money in both directions to flow in and advertise their stances more effectively/harmfully to the public.

Though I don't see any ballot measures in DC, Atlanta, Seattle, or Dallas that Amazon would care about so maybe we aren't on the right track. Who really knows anymore? I'm starting to think they aren't going through with anything at all and are just stalling out.

[StoOgE]

Originally Posted by hookem

Unlikely any announcement would be made before the November election, IMO.

Official announcement is one thing. But no way is that much real estate changing hands without noise breaking.

New York is the only potential location where regular business could hide that much real estate moving. And they'll have locked up options before announcing anything.

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by StoOgE

And they'll have locked up options before announcing anything.

yep.

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by Azul

Austin voting Yes on Prop J would likely deincentivize someone like Amazon to come and provide massive development knowing that a pro-development code overhaul will not come soon enough to provide all the infrastructure they seem to desire in their new HQ2 location. You could also make the case that allowing public vote on code overhauls allows potential special interest money in both directions to flow in and advertise their stances more effectively/harmfully to the public.

What property besides "the Catalyst" would they need massive new entitlements? They could fill new buildings downtown (granted they may/may not be contiguous), or take South Shore, or Broadmore, or that ranch in N Austin.......and not need the council to say/do squat.

I agree that Amazon would never step into a situation with their hat in their hand asking for anything. They want to stay in a power position, which I believe they can do in Austin as well as elsewhere.

I've revised my odds to:
DC 75% (Bezos is remodeling a home in the same neighborhood as Obama and close to WaPo, and most CEO's move their companies to places where they already live)
Austin 15%
Boston/Atlanta 10%

but honestly, I won't be surprised by any decision they make, they will make the best decision for themselves, which may not make sense to anyone else.

Prop J will be a disaster, but I think if it passes, the State will find a way to overturn it.

[austin242]

Is it possible that Amazon is waiting till after the 2018 midterms to decide? If Texas goes blue (or a democrat senator) we get Amazon and if not it goes to DC or somewhere more Liberal. If I was in charge of a company I could see me doing something like that.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Dcbrickley

What property besides "the Catalyst" would they need massive new entitlements? They could fill new buildings downtown (granted they may/may not be contiguous), or take South Shore, or Broadmore, or that ranch in N Austin.......and not need the council to say/do squat.

It's not just entitlements for their offices, it's what kind of place they want to be located.

They want places for their employees to live. They want a good (not just adequate) transit system. And then want the former to connect to the later.

Austin needs comprehensive fixes to really get there.

It gets back to Adler's pitch to them. We know there are things in Austin that need fixing, and Amazon could really be the catalyst to do that. But if J passes, that probably wouldn't happen.

[urbancore]

Odds Shark has Austin 3rd at 4:1....with N Virginia first and DC second.


"WHICH CITY WILL WIN THE BID TO HOST AMAZON HQ2?
Odds as of August 24 at Bovada

Northern Virginia, Virginia +240
Washington, D.C. +350
Austin, Texas +400
Boston, Massachusetts +450
Toronto, Ontario +500
Atlanta, Georgia +900
Montgomery County, Maryland +1200
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania +2000
Raleigh, North Carolina +2500
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania +3000
Chicago, Illinois +4000
Nashville, Tennessee +4000
New York City, New York +4500
Denver, Colorado +5000
Dallas, Texas +5000
Indianapolis, Indiana +5000
Columbus, Ohio +5000
Newark, New Jersey +5000
Los Angeles, California +6000
Miami, Florida +7500"


Oraclelp....where you at? chime in bruh..... or bruhette!

[drummer]

I've seen an "end of year" announcement timeline. Any hard date for said announcement?

[paul78701]

Originally Posted by drummer

I've seen an "end of year" announcement timeline. Any hard date for said announcement?

Nope. None.

[masonh2479]

Originally Posted by paul78701

Nope. None.

Odds are by the end of the year we will have slightly reduced finalists. Then in the year 2030 Amazon will announce a completely different city from the finalists as their pick.

[Jdawgboy]

This whole ordeal is ridiculous IMO, I think masonh2479 has the right idea in that they will just string everyone along for as long as they feel like it. I do think that they will choose a city on their list though, but they aren't concerned about a timeline.

[Azul]

I think some of the political and economic fire Amazon has been under along with their stagnant growth the past 6 months has been pushing this off a bit. Additionally I don't think they'll choose just one city, I'm almost certain they'll announce splitting between two. I could see them coming to Austin for just AI and securities to aide the Army Futures branch then officially have HQ2 in DC Metro for lobbying power.

[AusTxDevelopment]

The Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon has made follow-up visits to 3 finalists and made follow-up inquires to a few additional finalists, none in Texas. The Austin Biz Journal reported that the Chamber confirmed Amazon had not made a follow-up visit to Austin. The WSJ article is behind a paywall but here's a quote from USA Today:

The online retailing giant, which narrowed down its list to 20 locations in January, has made fresh visits in recent months to New York, Newark, New Jersey, and Chicago, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter who could not speak publicly. The report also noted that Amazon has followed up with other potential fits, such as Miami and locations in the Washington, D.C. area.

Some cities, such as Raleigh, North Carolina, haven't been contacted by Amazon in months, according to the Journal report

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/201...e-finalists-new-headquarters/1693897002/


And here's the ABJ article. https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/...ber-mum-on-whether-amazons-hq2-team.html

Its all still speculation until Amazon decides to announce.

[AusTxDevelopment]

Originally Posted by Azul

I think some of the political and economic fire Amazon has been under along with their stagnant growth the past 6 months has been pushing this off a bit. Additionally I don't think they'll choose just one city, I'm almost certain they'll announce splitting between two. I could see them coming to Austin for just AI and securities to aide the Army Futures branch then officially have HQ2 in DC Metro for lobbying power.

They already have over 200,000 square feet of office space in Austin and were searching for an additional 250,000 square feet before the HQ2 announcement put that on hold. If they don't pick Austin for HQ2, they will still be expanding their presence here.

[We vs us]

Dime’s about to drop on Northern Virginia. Amazon in advanced talks with Crystal City/Arlington.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/ama...6-d7c0-11e8-aeb7-ddcad4a0a54e_story.html

They leave the door open to the possibility that Amazon is negotiating in the same manner with other candidates ..... buuuuut I’m not sure even the article itself believes that.

[paul78701]

Originally Posted by We vs us

Dime’s about to drop on Northern Virginia. Amazon in advanced talks with Crystal City/Arlington.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/ama...6-d7c0-11e8-aeb7-ddcad4a0a54e_story.html

They leave the door open to the possibility that Amazon is negotiating in the same manner with other candidates ..... buuuuut I’m not sure even the article itself believes that.

Seeing as they are weeks from announcing a decision, it's not a surprise that there are advanced talks going on. It's hard to say whether or not they would be doing that with multiple cities. If the decision is close between multiple cities, the advanced talks stage could be the make or break for whichever city they ultimately choose.

[Dale]

Originally Posted by We vs us

Dime’s about to drop on Northern Virginia. Amazon in advanced talks with Crystal City/Arlington.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/ama...6-d7c0-11e8-aeb7-ddcad4a0a54e_story.html

They leave the door open to the possibility that Amazon is negotiating in the same manner with other candidates ..... buuuuut I’m not sure even the article itself believes that.

Surprised that everyone's missing this. Surprised to see an Austinite missing it.

From the same article ...

"Could come down to Crystal City or Austin"