Expo Line - Surrey Langley Extension: Planning & Pre-Construction

[scryer]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

I'm not sure if anybody actually understood my question.

Suppose Surrey "cancels" the LRT project. What happens next? Justin Trudeau and John Horgan said that the money that's budgeted for LRT won't transfer to some other project, so forget about that idea.

What happens next?

Sure, Surrey can try to "re-marry" with the Mayors' Council, but to carry the marriage analogy, that requires two willing participants. Why would Metro Vancouver mayors want to get hitched to Surrey again? And even if they do, there would need to be a lot more planning that needs doing, including negotiating with the feds and province for funding. Getting "re-married" wouldn't be for another 10-20 years, and in the meantime the North Shore needs some kind of rapid transit solution sooner than that.

You can be all "the LRT is going to kill Surrey's traffic", that's fine. But LRT has been funded, SkyTrain hasn't, and if you don't get LRT you don't get anything for 10-20 years at least. Is that the goal here?

First of all, shovels aren't in the ground, trains haven't been ordered, and the streets haven't been dug up yet (and I'll be there with popcorn IF that happens). The way I understand it, is that they have a huge cheque that hasn't been cashed or atleast completely cashed (and someone can correct me if I'm wrong).

It ain't over until the fat lady sings lol!

Now I see a bit of your point, I imagine that there will be some significant red-tape to re-allocate those funds to other projects and that will take time.

However money doesn't tend to completely disappear in this country if construction plans fall through. Someone always has their eyes on the money. So it's not like we need to re-secure funds, we need to re-allocate them elsewhere.

With that said telling us to pussy out on this fight because you think it's pointless and a done deal, is getting old. You repeated your point, I hear you; but I don't think that a lot of the forumers on here are going to jump-ship and board the "poor-us-let's-accept-it-anyways" train .

I'm not keen on wielding "what if" scare tactics but what if LRT balloons in costs for whatever reason? Remember, we are extremely familiar with the logistics behind extending the Skytrain; with LRT we are purchasing new technology to the region so I am sure that there will be costs unbeknownst to us yet.

[Migrant_Coconut]

I doubt CanSpice is trying to "scare" anybody out of protesting this, he's just saying that LRT to SkyTrain isn't a simple cut-n-paste procedure.

[BCPhil]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

I'm not sure if anybody actually understood my question.

Suppose Surrey "cancels" the LRT project. What happens next? Justin Trudeau and John Horgan said that the money that's budgeted for LRT won't transfer to some other project, so forget about that idea.

What happens next?

Sure, Surrey can try to "re-marry" with the Mayors' Council, but to carry the marriage analogy, that requires two willing participants. Why would Metro Vancouver mayors want to get hitched to Surrey again? And even if they do, there would need to be a lot more planning that needs doing, including negotiating with the feds and province for funding. Getting "re-married" wouldn't be for another 10-20 years, and in the meantime the North Shore needs some kind of rapid transit solution sooner than that.

You can be all "the LRT is going to kill Surrey's traffic", that's fine. But LRT has been funded, SkyTrain hasn't, and if you don't get LRT you don't get anything for 10-20 years at least. Is that the goal here?

It's not like the money is sitting as some pile of hard cash in a warehouse somewhere and if LRT doesn't get built, the pile is vaporized.

"Non transferable" just means they want the earmarked amount spent on what it was earmarked for. They don't want local governments to just get cash for transit infrastructure, then instead spend it on an overpass, or put it in GR and give out pay bonuses to staff.

Governments like spending money. The money would go back into the investment fund the feds have set up. An investment fund desperate for candidates.

The cost for this kind of LRT is skyrocketing around the country (where ROW weren't reserved and are being created in existing roadways). And many planned systems are now being cutback or stalled by local authorities that can't come up with their portion.

Translink and the feds would just renegotiate, find more money that needs to be spent, and pledge it to Skytrain.

As it is, the opening of LRT to Langley wouldn't be until 2030+. Cancelling LRT and going back to the negotiating table securing fresh money would still get rapid transit to Langley sooner than the current pace.

The problem has never been getting cash from the federal government.

The problem has always been getting the money from the region. And we have the money from the region because the 2 phase LRT would cost more than just Skytrain to Langley. So we have the hardest part taken care of.

[flipper316]

https://www.surreynowleader.com/news/cit...-after-lrt-signs-reportedly-coming-down/

[Trainguy]

Originally Posted by BCPhil

It's not like the money is sitting as some pile of hard cash in a warehouse somewhere and if LRT doesn't get built, the pile is vaporized.

"Non transferable" just means they want the earmarked amount spent on what it was earmarked for. They don't want local governments to just get cash for transit infrastructure, then instead spend it on an overpass, or put it in GR and give out pay bonuses to staff.

Governments like spending money. The money would go back into the investment fund the feds have set up. An investment fund desperate for candidates.

The cost for this kind of LRT is skyrocketing around the country (where ROW weren't reserved and are being created in existing roadways). And many planned systems are now being cutback or stalled by local authorities that can't come up with their portion.

Translink and the feds would just renegotiate, find more money that needs to be spent, and pledge it to Skytrain.

As it is, the opening of LRT to Langley wouldn't be until 2030+. Cancelling LRT and going back to the negotiating table securing fresh money would still get rapid transit to Langley sooner than the current pace.

The problem has never been getting cash from the federal government.

The problem has always been getting the money from the region. And we have the money from the region because the 2 phase LRT would cost more than just Skytrain to Langley. So we have the hardest part taken care of.

The argument from the Pro LRT side is that they want to build a community where people travel within Surrey and spur growth and density. The problem is that they are anticipating that all of a sudden tons of people are going to commute along 104th and KG all day long. The trains are most likely going to be near empty except for peak times. Every 5 minutes?? Seriously? Buses right now do the job just fine. The LRT group don't care about inconveniencing drivers because they want people to ditch their cars and get on the train. Not going to happen!! This is an expensive way to move a small section of the population at the expense of the majority. Continuing the Expo line along FH is the smartest money to spend. "Smart" and Surrey council at this moment don't go together.

[officedweller]

The problem that the pro-LRT people don't see is that the downtown part of the system will be the most heavily used part
- even for a Surrey-centric South-of-Fraser system bringing people to Surrey City Centre.

It's the part that should be grade-separated.

The comparison with Calgary and Edmonton is apt - but also show pitfalls.
Calgary has capacity issues with street-running downtown.
Edmonton was cash poor after splurging on a downtown tunnel.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by officedweller

Calgary has capacity issues with street-running downtown.

To be fair, Calgary has over double the population of Surrey and two different lines share the same downtown track. Having said that, I don't think Surrey is planning on building a system similar to Calgary.

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by roger1818

To be fair, Calgary has over double the population of Surrey and two different lines share the same downtown track. Having said that, I don't think Surrey is planning on building a system similar to Calgary.

I mean longer term when Surrey's population grows and grows.
Not sure if they would interline the Fraser Highway and Newton-Guildford lines.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by officedweller

I mean longer term when Surrey's population grows and grows.
Not sure if they would interline the Fraser Highway and Newton-Guildford lines.

True, but according to https://www.surrey.ca/business-economic-development/1418.aspx, Surrey's population is projected to be about 820k by 2046, which is still well below Calgary's current population. How far in advance are you wanting to plan for? No matter what system you build, it will have a capacity limit that one day will need to be addressed.

[Metro-One]

Originally Posted by roger1818

True, but according to https://www.surrey.ca/business-economic-development/1418.aspx, Surrey's population is projected to be about 820k by 2046, which is still well below Calgary's current population. How far in advance are you wanting to plan for? No matter what system you build, it will have a capacity limit that one day will need to be addressed.

The biggest difference is unlike Calgary, Surrey is not alone. It is a suburb of a much larger metro region.

Burnaby only has just over 200 000 people, so why does it have 2 grade separated lines?

Coquitlam and Richmond are both only around 150 000... yet grade separated lines...

Vancouver itself is only around 700 000 (you see where I am going).

The thing is all these communities are just pieces of a larger whole. So this is where direct population comparisons between Calgary and Surrey become pointless.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

The biggest difference is unlike Calgary, Surrey is not alone. It is a suburb of a much larger metro region.

Burnaby only has just over 200 000 people, so why does it have 2 grade separated lines?

Coquitlam and Richmond are both only around 150 000... yet grade separated lines...

Vancouver itself is only around 700 000 (you see where I am going).

The thing is all these communities are just pieces of a larger whole. So this is where direct population comparisons between Calgary and Surrey become pointless.

I see where you are getting at, but from a line capacity perspective, I don't see it making a huge difference. If anything, it will mean the demand through central Surrey will be lower as it is more of a suburb than a downtown compared to Calgary. Having Skytrain already there will also help offload some of the demand on the new lines proposed.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by roger1818

No matter what system you build, it will have a capacity limit that one day will need to be addressed.

With a higher limit though, the oversaturation point is thirty years into the future instead of thirteen.

Originally Posted by roger1818

I see where you are getting at, but from a line capacity perspective, I don't see it making a huge difference. If anything, it will mean the demand through central Surrey will be lower as it is more of a suburb than a downtown compared to Calgary. Having Skytrain already there will also help offload some of the demand on the new lines proposed.

Except the Light Rail Cheerleaders (TM) are expecting their trams to turn Whalley (Central Surrey) into its own downtown. The SkyTrain would be permanently stopped where it is, meaning its capacity would only be useful for people heading across the Fraser to/from Whalley - less than a tenth of SoF commuters - and the trams would handle the rest.... somehow.

If the plan called for just townhomes/lowrises and partially tunneled streetcars, not much problem. If it called for megatowers accompanied by SkyTrain and partially tunneled streetcars, also not much problem.

What Surrey First wants is megatowers, streetcars, and no tunnels. That's the problem.

[GMasterAres]

Originally Posted by roger1818

True, but according to https://www.surrey.ca/business-economic-development/1418.aspx, Surrey's population is projected to be about 820k by 2046, which is still well below Calgary's current population. How far in advance are you wanting to plan for? No matter what system you build, it will have a capacity limit that one day will need to be addressed.

You can't compare Surrey to Calgary, that's just absurd. You have to compare Calgary to Metro Vancouver.

Calgary = 1,501 sq/km.
Surrey = 316 sq/km.

As Metro-One pointed out, it is part of a greater cog. Also remember that Surrey is designated by Metro-Vancouver as the next central core catering primarily to South of Fraser and the Fraser Valley.

That means there will be increasing demand, as commercial space is developed in Surrey's core, to have commuters travel from east to west into Surrey Central. That will also increase demand from west to east (New West, Burnaby, etc.) as Metro-Vancouver continued the trend of migrating commercial and industry away from Vancouver itself and out to the rest of the region.

I've said it a million times now on these forums that 20 years ago 80% of jobs in the region were centered IN Vancouver. Today that number is 40% and continuing to drop. For every Telus Gardens development in downtown Vancouver, there is 5 times the commercial development outside Vancouver.

It is just taking different forms as Vancouver centre is specializing more on finance, consultancy, and technology. Surrey and other regional centres are catering more to other industries including their industrial base, services, medical, etc.

Honestly, SkyTrain extension through to Langley in Surrey would create a gold-rush to Surrey Central and I think establish it once and for all as the second regional downtown in-development.

SkyTrain from Newton to Guildford I still don't buy just like I don't buy LRT for that line. I think BRT is totally fine and they should honestly stop talking about that L line. 4 years on and I am still firm in my opinion that priorities in the region for rapid transit should simply be in order (or overlapping), (1) Broadway Subway, (2) Expo-line SkyTrain extension to Langley.

That's it, that's all. The rest of the transit expansion should be BRT or enhanced bus routes especially on the North Shore and in Langley. I think some of the politicians are finally starting to realize this and come around to the real-world.

[Firebrand]

Originally Posted by jhausner

The rest of the transit expansion should be BRT or enhanced bus routes especially on the North Shore and in Langley. I think some of the politicians are finally starting to realize this and come around to the real-world.

Tom Gill, Surrey First and the voters who drank the LRT Kool-Aid will say otherwise. There's also the good old NIMBYs who think SkyTrain is noisier than their "cute" trams like this troll who keeps posting on SkyTrain for Surrey Facebook group:

you another outsider trying to tell Surrey what to do, you live DT? Where all the Skytrains are underground! yes I've been to a few cities and I never said they were queit, but if you can read, I'm talking about how far the sound travel, ground vs 45ft in the air, I've seen this page come up with about 6 incidences from around the world collect from the last 10 years. Also if you can read, technologies exist now to prevent vehicle collisions and are starting to be installed in vehicles. As for pedestrians and cyclists, stay off the tracks and look both ways before you cross and obey crossing lights.

Link

Canada line is mostly underground, except in Richmond where #3 Road is shopping malls and sound proof concrete buildings and would be hard to hear over the jumbo jets taking off and landing 24/7. Surrey is slightly different. Mostly DSFR or low rise wooden townhouses with relatively quiet surroundings, I live a kilometer away and can clearly hear the Skytrains, was walking in Hawthorne park (over a kilometer away and no problem hearing the Skytrains) The new line would be within 1/2 a block from this tranquil park and tower above it. Also tower above Bear Creek Park. You can have your Skytrain, Strip malls, Jumbo Jets and crazy drivers, Leave Surrey out of your deafening stress trap. Stopping LRT now will take 15 to 20 years to get a Skytrain designed, approved, land appropriated, built and running. By that time autonomous will make elevated trains unnecessary. Get out of the past and into the future buddy!!!

Link

Don't forget that Bruce Hayne was the one who wanted LRT for Surrey in the first place when he was with Surrey First. Do not take his word for what he says.

[Changing City]

@ jhausner - You're correct that Calgary can only be compared with Metro Vancouver, not with individual Municipalities, because Calgary is effectively both a city and a region. You're pushing it a bit with the proportions of commercial space achieved outside the City of Vancouver. Current commercial office space data from Avison Young shows over 60% of commercial office space is in the City of Vancouver, and under 6% is in Surrey.

Right now those proportions aren't really changing; there's 5.3 million square feet of commercial space under construction for delivery by 2022 in the City of Vancouver, and 596,000 square feet in Surrey. In future maybe further Surrey projects will help accelerate the growth of employment space, but it's not really apparent from the data right now.

[edit - that's just office commercial space - the story on industrial space is obviously different]

[red-paladin]

Get out of the past and into the future buddy!!!

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by roger1818

True, but according to https://www.surrey.ca/business-economic-development/1418.aspx, Surrey's population is projected to be about 820k by 2046, which is still well below Calgary's current population. How far in advance are you wanting to plan for? No matter what system you build, it will have a capacity limit that one day will need to be addressed.

I think that the comments about Surrey's Population are still relevant if it is building a system primarily feeding into
a downtown Surrey that will be a major secondary core for the region.

Wiki says that C-Train was first built in 1981.
Google search shows that in 1981 Calgary's population was 592,743.

Edmonton's LRT line (tunnel) started operating in 1978.
Edmonton's population in 1978 was 478,066.

I just think that the downtown Surrey section should be grade separated
(or at very least along a route that does not criss-cross intersections)
Even Bellevue,WA will have Link LRT in a short tunnel through its downtown.

[M00dy]

Originally Posted by jsbertram

funny how nobody has mentioned that the 'ideal' renderings of this LRT never seem to include the overhead wiring usually needed to make it work

No no, Surrey LRT will be powered by hopes & dreams!

[swimmer_spe]

If the LRT was canceled, here is what could happen, they just make Skytrain lines in the area.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1RuRfK5O50ayec5Zp5nF1k-5MSUo&usp=sharing

My quick sketch of how it could be.

[s211]

Originally Posted by M00dy

No no, Surrey LRT will be powered by hopes & dreams!

Correction: unicorn farts and elf tears. C'mon, get with the Vancouver lexicon already!