Sunshine Coast Fixed Link

[waves]

Originally Posted by Mininari

“Instead of going around Jervis Inlet at its head, we could cross it,” said Fribance. “The route would start near Brackendale, but ascend the Ashlu Forest Service Road, cross a short 1,311-metre summit and descend the Vancouver River, cross Jervis and follow the west side of Hotham Sound and St Vincent Bay to Highway 101 near Saltery Bay.”
...

I like this route. I am curious to the final distance, but it seems much more direct than going over the Jervis Reach. There also might be potential to connect to Earls Cove somehow. I still like the Anvil Island Crossing better though

[Cypherus]

It does not seem feasible going through the Coastal Mountain range which includes sensitive grizzly bear habitat. It also is not a direct route to Powell River geographically speaking. That highway would likely be closed in the Winters due to inordinate amount of snow like the Duffey Lake Road between Pemberton and Lilloet. Lastly, we have a NDP government that would not even consider this a viable option but for valid reasons.

[Conrad Yablonski]

The plan includes building a bridge over Jervis Inlet and constructing a deep-sea port near St. Vincent Bay near Hotham Sound

[waves]

Originally Posted by Cypherus

It does not seem feasible going through the Coastal Mountain range which includes sensitive grizzly bear habitat. It also is not a direct route to Powell River geographically speaking. That highway would likely be closed in the Winters due to inordinate amount of snow like the Duffey Lake Road between Pemberton and Lilloet. Lastly, we have a NDP government that would not even consider this a viable option but for valid reasons.

It wouldn't be anymore closed than if they did the more northly option. Also, if it ends up part of the major highway network they'll make sure it stays open, just like they do the duffy.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Cypherus

That highway would likely be closed in the Winters due to inordinate amount of snow like the Duffey Lake Road between Pemberton and Lilloet.

There was a time when the Duffey Lake Road was closed over the winter months, but since it's been officially designated as part of Highway 99 they've been keeping it open year round.

[WestCoastEcho]

Also note that the pressure for a fixed link should subside a bit once BC Ferries is able to allocate a second ferry to the Sunshine Coast; the current Queen of Surrey is to be joined by the Queen of Oak Bay year round in the spring of 2023.

[LeftCoaster]

Roughly 20,000 people live in Powell River. And I don't think it's growing. In what sane world does this many any sense?

Even a fixed link to the Sunshine Coast, with piles of developable non-ALR land doesn't pencil out.

[s211]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Roughly 20,000 people live in Powell River. And I don't think it's growing. In what sane world does this many any sense?

Even a fixed link to the Sunshine Coast, with piles of developable non-ALR land doesn't pencil out.

Word is that Massey funding is being redirected to the Sunshine Coast project.

(j/k)

[Mininari]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Roughly 20,000 people live in Powell River. And I don't think it's growing. In what sane world does this many any sense?

Even a fixed link to the Sunshine Coast, with piles of developable non-ALR land doesn't pencil out.

These are both very valid points for the present day, but I think the Third Crossing Society is looking at the growth potential that could be opened up by a fixed link to Powell River. Tourism, retirement, recreation, etc. Powell River is not growing right now, but it would over time with a fixed link. Same can be said for the Sunshine Coast.

The new route has a summit above 1300M, which would definitely be a winter maintenance challenge. Habitat and environmental impacts would be enormous from such a project. The inevitable development of recreation along the route would introduce hikers, ATVs, etc. More drawbacks.

I am curious at how the 'piles' of developable non-ALR land would not pan out? Wasn't the whole fixed link scheme to the Sunshine Coast really all about land speculation and development (and playing with voters emotions, leading up to the last election)? The net taxation from development could certainly make up for most of the cost of construction over time (along with bridge tolls). Land sales, wage taxation associated with planning, construction, property transfer taxes, new business taxes, etc. etc. I have no numbers in front of me -- maybe I'm totally wrong.

Also keep in mind that the GVRD is running out of serviced industrial land -- an opportunity to bring employment to the Sunshine Coast, reducing the need the for the new residents to commute to the GVRD. Otherwise, the potential for this to become a sprawl-nightmare, flooding even more traffic onto the North Shore would be an obvious drawback.

The Third Crossing Society's port idea is a bit out there, and is a reach to justify the whole scheme with a port facility. Might as well propose an LNG plant while you're at it. I spent a number of nights on our family boat in the Harmony Islands as a kid, and I could not imagine such a facility appearing in that tranquil, isolated place.

[ssiguy]

I think if you were to ask people on the Sunshine Coast what they think, the support would be pretty low. Yes the ferry is a pain in the ass but it a true buffer between Vancouver and the SC and they like it that way. They don't want to become another Vancouver sprawling suburb. The people who live there sure aren't there for the job opportunities, high wages, or government services but rather because they don't want to live in Vancouver and many are Vancouver escapees.

Certainly there are many who want more convinient access to the city but a regular passenger-only ferry from Gibsons and possibly Sechelt to Vancouver Waterfront a la Seabus would be far more convinient, cheaper, and probably more welcomely embrassed by Sunshine Coasters themxselves.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by Mininari

These are both very valid points for the present day, but I think the Third Crossing Society is looking at the growth potential that could be opened up by a fixed link to Powell River. Tourism, retirement, recreation, etc. Powell River is not growing right now, but it would over time with a fixed link. Same can be said for the Sunshine Coast.

The new route has a summit above 1300M, which would definitely be a winter maintenance challenge. Habitat and environmental impacts would be enormous from such a project. The inevitable development of recreation along the route would introduce hikers, ATVs, etc. More drawbacks.

I am curious at how the 'piles' of developable non-ALR land would not pan out? Wasn't the whole fixed link scheme to the Sunshine Coast really all about land speculation and development (and playing with voters emotions, leading up to the last election)? The net taxation from development could certainly make up for most of the cost of construction over time (along with bridge tolls). Land sales, wage taxation associated with planning, construction, property transfer taxes, new business taxes, etc. etc. I have no numbers in front of me -- maybe I'm totally wrong.

Also keep in mind that the GVRD is running out of serviced industrial land -- an opportunity to bring employment to the Sunshine Coast, reducing the need the for the new residents to commute to the GVRD. Otherwise, the potential for this to become a sprawl-nightmare, flooding even more traffic onto the North Shore would be an obvious drawback.

The Third Crossing Society's port idea is a bit out there, and is a reach to justify the whole scheme with a port facility. Might as well propose an LNG plant while you're at it. I spent a number of nights on our family boat in the Harmony Islands as a kid, and I could not imagine such a facility appearing in that tranquil, isolated place.

Well like I said the sunshine coast link makes more sense to me because of the development opportunity (even if I don't really support encouraging sprawl, there is at least a point to the link). It's close to Vancouver and if it were not for Howe Sound would be part of suburban Vancouver.

Powell River on the other hand is hours away even with the fixed link, so it's not feasible as a spillover for Metro Van, not any more than Merrit, Comox or Duncan, which brings the question, why would be spend many billions to develop a remote area of the south coast when so many more could be developed for much less.

[Migrant_Coconut]

I can see the "increased traffic" argument, but not the "sprawl" one. Gibsons-Langdale would probably grow to match Squamish, yes, but for the rest, even Aldergrove is easier to get to; I don't see Sechelt getting shadow-flipped anytime soon.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Roughly 20,000 people live in Powell River. And I don't think it's growing. In what sane world does this many any sense?

Even a fixed link to the Sunshine Coast, with piles of developable non-ALR land doesn't pencil out.

I think there are big LNG plans for Powell River

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I think if you were to ask people on the Sunshine Coast what they think, the support would be pretty low. Yes the ferry is a pain in the ass but it a true buffer between Vancouver and the SC and they like it that way. They don't want to become another Vancouver sprawling suburb.

The sunshine coast is no more likely to become a "Vancouver suburb" than Pemberton, closer compared to the proposed route, already is. Which is to say, "NOT".

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Mininari

The Third Crossing Society's port idea is a bit out there, and is a reach to justify the whole scheme with a port facility.

I tend to agree. With Vancouver Island in the way, how do they propose ships get to this new port? The northern route through Johnstone Strait would be narrower and through more sensitive waters. The southern route would have ships go past Vancouver only to have goods trucked back to Vancouver. It doesn't make any sense.

What's next? A canal from Port Alberni to Qualicum Bay for the ships and a rail line from this new port to Squamish?

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by djmk

I think there are big LNG plans for Powell River

LNG in Powell River? None that I can think of. Maybe you're thinking of the other PR, Prince Rupert, which has a few proposals.

[WestCoastEcho]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

LNG in Powell River? None that I can think of. Maybe you're thinking of the other PR, Prince Rupert, which has a few proposals.

Probably the proposed Kwispaa LNG project that will have a pipeline running southwest of Powell River, across the Strait of Georgia, and onto Vancouver Island.

[GMasterAres]

Originally Posted by djmk

I think there are big LNG plans for Powell River

Not sure about that but if they did, that just needs a pipeline. Not a fixed road link.

[GMasterAres]

Originally Posted by WestCoastEcho

Probably the proposed Kwispaa LNG project that will have a pipeline running southwest of Powell River, across the Strait of Georgia, and onto Vancouver Island.

Yah. So my point above, pipeline. Not a road link.

[GMasterAres]

Also on the topic of a deep port at Powell River... why? I don't see the use case honestly.

Ships coming in will come through the south of Vancouver Island around Victoria. Powell River is a lot further and more fuel burn to get to than anywhere in Metro Vancouver today. They are working on expanding Roberts Bank in Tsawwassen and I don't believe demand is growing fast enough that Port Metro Vancouver would need to expand up to Powell River.

Just don't really see a business case honestly. I also don't think the growth potential is that great. Could you imagine the towns on the Sunshine Coast ballooning in population?

Let's just say all the cities on the Sunshine Coast tripled in size. Tripled.

The whole Sunshine Coast = 26,000 --> 78,000 (tripled)
Powell River = 13,000 --> 39,000 (tripled)

So assuming both the entire Sunshine Coast + Powell River TRIPLED in population over say 30 years with a fixed link (which is completely unrealistic you have to admit), the final population of the entire area is basically the population of Delta spread along a distance that is West Vancouver to Chilliwack.

117,000 people spread along 131 km.

Again that is with the population existing today tripling.

There's just no business case I can see it's a pipe dream at best, and anyone wanting to "get out of Metro Vancouver" will just move to Squamish or Chilliwack like they do today. If the Sunshine Coast was opened up to a fix link anyway it would drive up prices because they would just become another West Vancouver only with more developable land = big mansions. It's just silly. I'd rather see all that money to go infrastructure that is needed in BC.