Confederation Line (Stage 1) | In Service 1.0

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

How does line length tell you that?

I would argue per km spending tells you more about those things. What requires more will? The subways that cost $1.5-2-5 billion per mile or an LRT in an existing corridor that would cost tens of million per km to upgrade (Trillium Line is at $34M per km).

True, but it tells you more about that than ridership alone

I doubt you need LIMs or something like that. Lines carrying that many passengers are simply regular heavy rail metros. That's what the Confederation Line would need to be to handle that kind of load.

LIMs would only be needed to further increase frequency. As I said the cost/benefit to retrofit it doesn’t make sense though. I’m not sure if switching to heavy metro vehicles is overly cost effective either but time will tell.

Assuming the same rolling stock and same configuration....

No, assuming they go to 5 car trains. I don’t think the ultimate capacity estimate has them doing anything else, but I do admit that’s an assumption on my part.

Getting to 18 000 from 10 700 projected at launch is 68% growth in 13 years. I do think they are sandbagging a bit and we'll probably see > 11 000 at launch and probably closer to 20 000 by 2031. But a lot of that I believe is because transit demand has been held back by the horrible experience of crawling buses through downtown. We may get back to 20 000 pphpd and then see much slower growth from there as feeder service starts driving growth more and more.

Only time will tell. There are many variables and my crystal ball is a little foggy.

[J.OT13]

It's important to note that the 24,000 phpd capacity isn't just limited to train size (and by extension platform length) and frequency. The layout of downtown station are also limited. They were built to handle a certain volume of people coming in and out. Upgrading Line 1 to heavy rail in order to accommodate 30 to 40 thousand would also require heavy modifications to Lyon, Parliament and Rideau and possibly a few others.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

It's important to note that the 24,000 phpd capacity isn't just limited to train size (and by extension platform length) and frequency. The layout of downtown station are also limited. They were built to handle a certain volume of people coming in and out. Upgrading Line 1 to heavy rail in order to accommodate 30 to 40 thousand would also require heavy modifications to Lyon, Parliament and Rideau and possibly a few others.

True, although that assumes downtown remains the same size. I suspect downtown will extend further west to include LeBreton Flats, causing an increase in local demand at Pimisi and Bayview stations.

[kmcamp]

Originally Posted by roger1818

True, although that assumes downtown remains the same size. I suspect downtown will extend further west to include LeBreton Flats, causing an increase in local demand at Pimisi and Bayview stations.

I agree Lebreton will be "new" downtown. Besides having lots of relatively cheap land, it's not bound by the restrictive view planes the current CBD has and it will have two LRT lines instead of one. Gravity will shift west, and it's obvious from developments like Trinity station that Ottawa's tallest buildings will be there as well.

I mean there is still some room to grow in the existing CBD, but it will be much cheaper and easier for developers to plop new towers in the Flats, and it'll be easier to get them approved.

[lrt's friend]

I am not convince that the CBD will truly extend westward. We have put up a lot of towers west of Bank, but still it is a dead zone. This is partly because of poor design but actually the centre of our city has moved eastward in recent years as Sparks Street and the north end of Bank Street has declined in importance. Perhaps, we will create a new 'Elgin' Street out on Lebreton but when have we actually seen this work with modern building and community design? There may be a lot of condos go up in that area in the next 25 years, but condos alone do not make a CBD. You need office buildings, retail, hotels, attractions and lots of pedestrians to make it part of the CBD. Today, there are no pedestrians out there. The trend has been that offices have been moving to the suburbs for the last 50 years where property is much cheaper and I don't see this changing. It is going to be a challenge to have a cohesive CBD with Lebreton being so distant from Parliament, Rideau Centre and the Byward Market. We are even having difficulty getting retail to return to Sparks Street despite its long history and short distance to other dowtown retail areas.


Rapid transit stations and a rapid transit junction will help but this also depends on what we put in there. Putting up condo towers is not enough. Have we seen any proposals for a major retail development out there that will bring people in from broader sections of the city? Nope.

[kmcamp]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I am not convince that the CBD will truly extend westward. We have put up a lot of towers west of Bank, but still it is a dead zone. This is partly because of poor design but actually the centre of our city has moved eastward in recent years as Sparks Street and the north end of Bank Street has declined in importance. Perhaps, we will create a new 'Elgin' Street out on Lebreton but when have we actually seen this work with modern building and community design? There may be a lot of condos go up in that area in the next 25 years, but condos alone do not make a CBD. You need office buildings, retail, hotels, attractions and lots of pedestrians to make it part of the CBD. Today, there are no pedestrians out there. The trend has been that offices have been moving to the suburbs for the last 50 years where property is much cheaper and I don't see this changing. It is going to be a challenge to have a cohesive CBD with Lebreton being so distant from Parliament, Rideau Centre and the Byward Market. We are even having difficulty getting retail to return to Sparks Street despite its long history and short distance to other dowtown retail areas.


Rapid transit stations and a rapid transit junction will help but this also depends on what we put in there. Putting up condo towers is not enough. Have we seen any proposals for a major retail development out there that will bring people in from broader sections of the city? Nope.

Lansdowne is a current example of a newly created space that is attracting pedestrians and offices. And the outward trend is reversing. My own industry (software) is an example, I now work downtown instead of a buisness park, and it's because of talent acquisition, young talent doesn't want the office parks and cubicles we had when i was young developer.

Lebreton won't be the extended CBD overnight, but i can see it long term.

Sparks street is an odd beast, it doesn't lack in pedestrian traffic, i think it's just mismanaged (not the BIA, but the government which is the primary landlord)

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I am not convince that the CBD will truly extend westward. We have put up a lot of towers west of Bank, but still it is a dead zone. This is partly because of poor design but actually the centre of our city has moved eastward in recent years as Sparks Street and the north end of Bank Street has declined in importance. Perhaps, we will create a new 'Elgin' Street out on Lebreton but when have we actually seen this work with modern building and community design? There may be a lot of condos go up in that area in the next 25 years, but condos alone do not make a CBD. You need office buildings, retail, hotels, attractions and lots of pedestrians to make it part of the CBD. Today, there are no pedestrians out there. The trend has been that offices have been moving to the suburbs for the last 50 years where property is much cheaper and I don't see this changing. It is going to be a challenge to have a cohesive CBD with Lebreton being so distant from Parliament, Rideau Centre and the Byward Market.


Rapid transit stations and a rapid transit junction will help but this also depends on what we put in there. Putting up condo towers is not enough.

I agree that it depends on the implementation and condos don't make a downtown. The arena will draw retail, especially restaurants and bars but other forms of retail may be drawn in. That will make it into an entertainment hub. Hotels will also likely be drawn in as it will likely be a popular area for visitors. The key is if office buildings will be built. I believe it would complete the area, providing a daytime market for the restaurants and bars.

As for your comment that the trend for offices moving to the suburbs, we are starting to see a reversal of that trend, though it depends on the industry. Low density industries like hardware design and manufacturing (yes there is still manufacturing in Ottawa) need more space for labs and assembly lines, so the suburbs make more sense. For higher density industries, like software design and financial institutions, which are mostly just cubical farms, they are finding that having offices downtown is more attractive to employees as it is a better atmosphere with lots of amenities nearby, which makes up for the higher cost. It also looks better to invite your customers to a downtown office and then take them to a clique restaurant nearby for lunch.

I have said this before, but I can see the current CBD remaining a government and financial centre (basically anyone who needs to be close to Parliament Hill) and LeBreton becoming a software design centre.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I am not convince that the CBD will truly extend westward. We have put up a lot of towers west of Bank, but still it is a dead zone. This is partly because of poor design but actually the centre of our city has moved eastward in recent years as Sparks Street and the north end of Bank Street has declined in importance.

Exactly. A downtown is not just buildings; it's the spaces between them. Without strong street presences, tall buildings at Lebreton and Bayview are just tall buildings. There's some downtown-tall buildings at Tunney's, too, and it's about as sterile as it gets.

Downtown streets still have the advantage (though not for long if we keep building ground-level spaces that only Shoppers can inhabit) of lots of small retail and office space for those ancillary and niche services and goods that make downtowns feel like downtowns to human beings, not just tall-building fetishists.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by kmcamp

Sparks street is an odd beast, it doesn't lack in pedestrian traffic, i think it's just mismanaged (not the BIA, but the government which is the primary landlord)

The other issue with Sparks Street is that given that it is a single street, it is long and narrow, which maximizes the distance you need to walk between businesses.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Uhuniau

Exactly. A downtown is not just buildings; it's the spaces between them. Without strong street presences, tall buildings at Lebreton and Bayview are just tall buildings. There's some downtown-tall buildings at Tunney's, too, and it's about as sterile as it gets.

Downtown streets still have the advantage (though not for long if we keep building ground-level spaces that only Shoppers can inhabit) of lots of small retail and office space for those ancillary and niche services and goods that make downtowns feel like downtowns to human beings, not just tall-building fetishists.

This doesn't look like a collection of sterile tall buildings to me, but we will have to see what we actually get:


Rendering from RendezVous LeBreton via The Ottawa Citizen.

[McC]

Originally Posted by roger1818

The other issue with Sparks Street is that given that it is a single street, it is long and narrow, which maximizes the distance you need to walk between businesses.

which is no different different from the successful streets like Elgin, Bank in the Gleebe+OOS, and Somerset-West-Welli-Richmond.

[lrt's friend]

I realize that there are some exceptions to the rule. Some businesses desire to be downtown for the reasons given, but there are a limited number of businesses willing and able to pay higher downtown rents. We will see, but I am still doubtful.

I also don't see the arena being an enormous draw for retailers, but maybe a few restaurants, but even then. Lansdowne has pedestrian traffic problems other than on game days and this gets worse in the winter when patios have to close. And Lansdowne has an advantage because it fills in a gap between the Glebe and old Ottawa South.


Pedestrians will not walk more than a block or two before they give up. Also, a Lebreton arena cannot support many restaurants because of the limited number of events. Out in Kanata, more restaurants can exist because people can drive in. This will not be the case at Lebreton. Survival of restaurants will be mostly dependant on local walk-ins and those arriving by transit. For people to come by transit, it will need to become a destination. A cool place. This will depend on the success of the Confederation Line. For people to come from the suburbs to 'cool Lebreton', the Confederation Line needs Park n Ride lots, of which there are none in Phase 1 and not enough for Phase 2.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by McC

which is no different different from the successful streets like Elgin, Bank in the Gleebe+OOS, and Somerset-West-Welli-Richmond.

I agree that a strip of businesses is very typical and is very workable. It allows a lot of walk-ins from side streets, where people live or can park. The important thing is to have a continuous strip of businesses, so that people can stroll along, and visit multiple businesses, window shop or just people watch. Squares are nice as long as they are surrounded by businesses, otherwise they can become a barrier to pedestrians as is the case with Confederation Square. This is one of the reasons why Sparks Street failed especially after the streetcar connection between Rideau and Sparks was eliminated in 1959. Now we are even hesitant to allow centretown buses to serve Rideau, Sparks and Bank. A big mistake in my opinion. For short trips, the subway will be far from ideal. I don't understand how the planners don't get this.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I realize that there are some exceptions to the rule. Some businesses desire to be downtown for the reasons given, but there are a limited number of businesses willing and able to pay higher downtown rents. We will see, but I am still doubtful.

I also don't see the arena being an enormous draw for retailers, but maybe a few restaurants, but even then. Lansdowne has pedestrian traffic problems other than on game days and this gets worse in the winter when patios have to close. And Lansdowne has an advantage because it fills in a gap between the Glebe and old Ottawa South.


Pedestrians will not walk more than a block or two before they give up. Also, a Lebreton arena cannot support many restaurants because of the limited number of events. Out in Kanata, more restaurants can exist because people can drive in. This will not be the case at Lebreton. Survival of restaurants will be mostly dependant on local walk-ins and those arriving by transit. For people to come by transit, it will need to become a destination. A cool place. This will depend on the success of the Confederation Line. For people to come from the suburbs to 'cool Lebreton', the Confederation Line needs Park n Ride lots, of which there are none in Phase 1 and not enough for Phase 2.

If we're going to compare LeBreton to Lansdowne, we have to take into account the number of events.

Not counting playoff games, Lansdowne has 9 football games (attracting close to the 24,000 capacity), the 67's have 34 games (short of 4,000 spectators per game) and the Fury hosts another 9 games (average attendance around 5,000). Add the bar hoppers during game days, a few concerts (mostly in the Civic Centre), a few festivals and community events.

The NHL arena at LeBreton will host around 180 events (hockey, concerts and others) over the course of a year by its own. Most will probably be sold out (18,000). NHL also draws many more people to bars and restaurants on any given day than any of the Lansdowne sports franchises. Throw in Bluesfest and any other events that will be hosted at LeBreton and the critical mass is way higher than Lansdowne. NHL also draws many more people to bars and restaurants on any given day than any of the Lansdowne sports franchises.

LeBreton is also much more accessible of course, it being served by two O-Train lines and stations. Anyone who works downtown could easily take the subway after work to catch a game and then go back home using the subway or pick up their car parked in the CBD. That covers most walk-ins. Add to that the hotels, condos and offices at LeBreton and Zibi.

As for park-and-rides and the O-Train, Stage 2 will probably be completed, or mostly complete by the time the arena opens.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

LeBreton is also much more accessible of course, it being served by two O-Train lines and stations. Anyone who works downtown could easily take the subway after work to catch a game and then go back home using the subway or pick up their car parked in the CBD. That covers most walk-ins. Add to that the hotels, condos and offices at LeBreton and Zibi.

True. Only big events get Park&Shuttle service. The remainder require you use local service, which isn't very convenient form most parts of town.

As for park-and-rides and the O-Train, Stage 2 will probably be completed, or mostly complete by the time the arena opens.

The point is, only Park-and-Ride lots east of the Rideau will have direct service by LRT as Baseline will lose its lot and the other lots will require a transfer to a bus. Hopefully the connection will be efficient, but it will still be a connection. I wouldn't be surprised if Melnyk pushes the city to complete Stage 3 sooner than later, especially to Kanata which has a large percentage of current attendees.

[kmcamp]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I agree that a strip of businesses is very typical and is very workable. It allows a lot of walk-ins from side streets, where people live or can park. The important thing is to have a continuous strip of businesses, so that people can stroll along, and visit multiple businesses, window shop or just people watch. Squares are nice as long as they are surrounded by businesses, otherwise they can become a barrier to pedestrians as is the case with Confederation Square. This is one of the reasons why Sparks Street failed especially after the streetcar connection between Rideau and Sparks was eliminated in 1959. Now we are even hesitant to allow centretown buses to serve Rideau, Sparks and Bank. A big mistake in my opinion. For short trips, the subway will be far from ideal. I don't understand how the planners don't get this.

The main problem with Sparks east of Bank is that its all souless 1970's shopping arcades, the most successful part is east of Bank, but the mix could use more bars and restaurants, things like the Hallmark store closed but why would anyone go to Sparks to buy cards. There's nothing unique or experience related

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

If we're going to compare LeBreton to Lansdowne, we have to take into account the number of events.

Not counting playoff games, Lansdowne has 9 football games (attracting close to the 24,000 capacity), the 67's have 34 games (short of 4,000 spectators per game) and the Fury hosts another 9 games (average attendance around 5,000). Add the bar hoppers during game days, a few concerts (mostly in the Civic Centre), a few festivals and community events.

The NHL arena at LeBreton will host around 180 events (hockey, concerts and others) over the course of a year by its own. Most will probably be sold out (18,000). NHL also draws many more people to bars and restaurants on any given day than any of the Lansdowne sports franchises. Throw in Bluesfest and any other events that will be hosted at LeBreton and the critical mass is way higher than Lansdowne. NHL also draws many more people to bars and restaurants on any given day than any of the Lansdowne sports franchises.

LeBreton is also much more accessible of course, it being served by two O-Train lines and stations. Anyone who works downtown could easily take the subway after work to catch a game and then go back home using the subway or pick up their car parked in the CBD. That covers most walk-ins. Add to that the hotels, condos and offices at LeBreton and Zibi.

As for park-and-rides and the O-Train, Stage 2 will probably be completed, or mostly complete by the time the arena opens.

As I said, the number of Park n Ride lots is still inadequate after Phase 2, none serving the west half of the city. I have said it before, that every train should have a connecting bus to Eagleson and Fallowfield until Phase 3 is completed. Likewise from Hurdman to South Keys. I just get the feeling that the city will cheap out on this and make connections between train and bus less than optimal.

For those wanting to watch an out-of-town game, there are plenty of locations across the city to do that. Unless Lebreton becomes the 'go to' location, I think people will be perfectly happy to go to their neighbourhood bar to watch a game.

I very much want Lebreton to succeed, but I don't see it becoming totally part of the CBD unless we really work hard and make it a place for large numbers to live, work and play.


When we talk about employers moving downtown again, one has to think of the Cathedral hill project where an office tower was replaced with a condo because of the lack of demand for more office space downtown.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by kmcamp

The main problem with Sparks east of Bank is that its all souless 1970's shopping arcades, the most successful part is east of Bank, but the mix could use more bars and restaurants, things like the Hallmark store closed but why would anyone go to Sparks to buy cards. There's nothing unique or experience related

You comment about Hallmark, but this is a symptom of the problem. Maybe this is a generational change too. People don't send or give out cards like in the past. But also, the retail mix on Sparks has been deteriorating for decades. Restaurants and bars are not the only answer. We need a broad retail mix. Also, too many former retail stores have been converted into offices with no street front presence.


Sparks needs some retailers that are unique to downtown if not to the whole city. I am not sure how this gets jump started. We have let things deteriorate for too long.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by McC

which is no different different from the successful streets like Elgin, Bank in the Gleebe+OOS, and Somerset-West-Welli-Richmond.

None of those are exclusive to pedestrians. What percentage of the patrons on those streets walk up and down the street from one end to the other and how many take a bus or car close to where they want to go?

[kmcamp]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

You comment about Hallmark, but this is a symptom of the problem. Maybe this is a generational change too. People don't send or give out cards like in the past. But also, the retail mix on Sparks has been deteriorating for decades. Restaurants and bars are not the only answer. We need a broad retail mix. Also, too many former retail stores have been converted into offices with no street front presence.


Sparks needs some retailers that are unique to downtown if not to the whole city. I am not sure how this gets jump started. We have let things deteriorate for too long.

I meant Hallmark is a store you can find anywhere, it's not a destination that somebody would be compelled to go to Sparks for. For Sparks Street to work, it needs destination stores, restauraants and traffic, and it's in Spark's good fortune that the tunnel shifted to next door on Queen St, giving it direct access to the LRT.