Amazon HQ2

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by Geckos_Rule

Speaking rather anecdotally as a 25 year old attorney, I never once thought about the fact that Texas has at-will employment (when it came to the decision of wanting to work in Austin), and I would wager a large amount that none of my law school classmates thought about it either. Many of them are indeed the "best and the brightest" and I don't think labor laws played even 1% into the choice of what firm to work for or what city to move to. Whereas a lack of state income tax, as well as pure salary amount amounted for about 75% of the "which city to I want to work in" decision. The other 25% is a mix of "how cool is this city" and availability of specific work in a specific area of law.

Just my 2 cents, but I wouldn't be surprised if this mindset is that of a number of other young people outside of the legal field as well. Many/most of my peers have never really thought about how their employer could fire them.

It really matters more to the employers. I've been a small business owner for more than 25 years. I have had to fire a few, not too many, but it was a pretty easy process. I said, that's it, your fired and off they went. Twice they filed a TWC file on me to collect unemployment due to wrongful termination, each time I won, when I showed evidence of theft, threatening other employees, no show for 2 days, that type of stuff.

It really puts your mind at ease to know it won't be too big of a hassle to get rid of a poison pill in your company.

I agree with you 100% about the 75% coming to A for money and 25% cool factor. As a real estate broker for nearly 20 years, I've heard that same line time and time again from people relocating here. If they are from the either coasts, they are astonished at what they can afford to rent/buy.

If they are from Topeka, they are astonished at what they can't afford to rent/buy.....as my father always said....everything is relative son. Ole Bean was right.

[the Genral]

Originally Posted by Geckos_Rule

Speaking rather anecdotally as a 25 year old attorney,

Have you been an attorney for 25 years or are you actually a 25 year old attorney? Just curious. I can't tell from your avatar pick how old you are.
Impressive either way.

[Geckos_Rule]

Originally Posted by the Genral

Have you been an attorney for 25 years or are you actually a 25 year old attorney? Just curious. I can't tell from your avatar pick how old you are.
Impressive either way.

The latter.

[Austin1971]

Originally Posted by Dcbrickley

Nimby power is in the ability to say "no" when a developer/employer wants something. They can employ new city regs etc to slow progress, but that can backfire when affects the locals too. They have not tried to stop Google from adding 100's of jobs, or Facebook, or Oracle, etc....because they know they can't stop them, or even slow them. Those companies didn't ask them for anything-that I'm aware of.

Amazon probably always knew where they wanted to go, and ginned up their search for publicity and possibly increase the incentives offered by their favorite city. Austin won't have to offer much. Texas will offer plenty, and Austin's cost of living will take care of the rest. (paying 50,000 employees $50k+ less per year than Boston,DC area adds up quickly) Austin is a town that has plenty of room in the urban core now, and room for them to grow....and they can make a difference with their weight/money. Amazon can almost mold Austin into the urban city they desire.

Amazon would not choose a town and hope that they could convince a small cadre of people to allow them to relocate. I think we are giving the nimby's too much credit in this particular case.

They will complain, piss and moan, but in the end......I doubt Bezos will lose any sleep over Poole (or her equivalent in some other city).

I've raise my prediction from 33-50% to 50-67% that we got this.

I'll go 70-80%.....The Republic adding multiple floors has me wondering why? Something big is in the works.

[Austinite101]

I'm still not convinced that we're close to getting it. I'd say you're being a bit generous if those are the odds you're thinking of. Don't forget, Austin has very serious competition. Many of these cities are ones we wouldn't have dreamed of competing seriously against just 10 years ago.

That said, I do think Austin has a decent chance. The talent pool/universities in addition to the prospect of Amazon being able to draw not just from Austin, but also from the rest of the Texas Triangle is definite plus that I think is being overlooked in favor of other factors (transportation, airport size, etc). Although you could say the same thing in favor of Dallas, Austin is better able to make that argument due to Austin's central location in the state and, again, its universities.

[The ATX]

Originally Posted by Austin1971

I'll go 70-80%.....The Republic adding multiple floors has me wondering why? Something big is in the works.

A spokesman for Lincoln said today that the added floors were not for a specific tenant. He indicated that Lincoln was just bullish on Austin's office market. There's an ABJ article from earlier today with the info. I don't have time to post it at the moment.

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by Austinite101

I'm still not convinced that we're close to getting it. I'd say you're being a bit generous if those are the odds you're thinking of. Don't forget, Austin has very serious competition. Many of these cities are ones we wouldn't have dreamed of competing seriously against just 10 years ago.

That said, I do think Austin has a decent chance. The talent pool/universities in addition to the prospect of Amazon being able to draw not just from Austin, but also from the rest of the Texas Triangle is definite plus that I think is being overlooked in favor of other factors (transportation, airport size, etc). Although you could say the same thing in favor of Dallas, Austin is better able to make that argument due to Austin's central location in the state and, again, its universities.

You sell Austin short. I think our record is strong against other cities. From Sematech to Schwab. There are plenty of companies that have relocated to Austin over the years.

I ageee with you about the Texas Triangle aspect. Plus Bezos has roots in Texas.

[the Genral]

My prediction comes down to Atlanta, DC, Dallas, in that order of finish. Austin gets an honorable mention, comes in 4th. I used mathematics, logic, science and economic mapping to arrive to that conclusion that's so complicated that it would take years to explain it or in my case, understand it. In other words, my guess is as good as anybody else. We'll just have to wait and see. And btw, I was pretty good at betting trifectas at the dog track. I just didn't win that many, so there's still hope for Austin.

[hookem]

I don't know what to think about the HQ2 chances for Austin anymore. When this thing started, I had a high degree of skepticism that there was really a "competition" anyway... thus they had already essentially picked a site. In that scenario, I would give Austin a good chance. But other cities might also have a good chance in a pre-selected scenario.

But if that were the case, I'm not sure why the extra delay. Perhaps they feel there could be a big backlash from a strong competitor (say Atlanta or NJ), who may have been ranked higher in all "public" criteria, and even in incentives? Do they think the extra time might mitigate that, as people lose interest? Or looking to mitigate backlash/maximize incentives by selecting multiple sites?

Or is it a political thing? Now that it is so close to elections, do they want to wait so it doesn't become a election issue for state and local politicians? Perhaps they think their incentive negotiations will be smoother with politicians who aren't in the middle of an election cycle?

[Austin1971]

In a report analyzing the 20 HQ2 finalists to determine which is the most construction-friendly, PlanGrid found the 10 U.S. metro areas that are the most equipped to handle the inevitable construction boom that will come with HQ2, ranking them in the following order:

Austin, Texas
Northern Virginia
Denver
Raleigh, North Carolina
Dallas
Atlanta
Boston
Nashville, Tennessee
Montgomery County, Maryland
Columbus, Ohio

https://www.bisnow.com/national/news...inalists-92284

[paul78701]

Originally Posted by Dcbrickley

You sell Austin short. I think our record is strong against other cities. From Sematech to Schwab. There are plenty of companies that have relocated to Austin over the years.

I ageee with you about the Texas Triangle aspect. Plus Bezos has roots in Texas.

Plus, we just landed the Army Futures Command. Austin has already beat out many of those other cities on the HQ2 finalists list. I realize that it's not the same as HQ2 exactly, but I'm sure Amazon is looking at much of the same, current data and criteria the Army was.

[We vs us]

Really excellent longer read about Seattle and HQ1.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...llowed-seattle

[GoldenBoot]

Something I have been thinking about...is there a correlation between Amazon's HQ2 and Delta Airlines?

At roughly the same time as Amazon was designing and subsequently developing their HQ1 in downtown Seattle, Delta was in the process of creating a hub at SEA.

And when you look at it, the serious finalist for HQ2 are mostly cities whose airport is already a DL hub or focus city (i.e., Atlanta, Boston, Raleigh/Durham, etc.).

So, is there smoke with the rumor Austin might be awarded focus city status from Delta? I think the two may be hand-in-hand.

Just thinking...

[ATXboom]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

Something I have been thinking about...is there a correlation between Amazon's HQ2 and Delta Airlines?

At roughly the same time as Amazon was designing and subsequently developing their HQ1 in downtown Seattle, Delta was in the process of creating a hub at SEA.

And when you look at it, the serious finalist for HQ2 are mostly cities whose airport is already a DL hub or focus city (i.e., Atlanta, Boston, Raleigh/Durham, etc.).

So, is there smoke with the rumor Austin might be awarded focus city status from Delta? I think the two may be hand-in-hand.

Just thinking...

I would hope city leaders who are responding to the HQ2 opportunity would broker conversations with Delta and other companies to ensure the city could meet their needs. I am sure there is some conversation and informal alignment (e.g. "If Austin gets HQ2 we will work together (Austin & Delta) to rapidly expand capacity to meet demand"). Gotta imagine all contenders are doing something similar to present the best case possible to AMZ.

Scaled & sped up downtown office development and the open position for Delta focus city leadership in Austin provide some converging evidence of significant anticipated growth. The timing with HQ2 is intriguing. If it happens, you have a massive "I told you so... the evidence was there".

[We vs us]

This seems on-point:

Elon Poll on Amazon HQ2: What residents in 19 U.S. finalist cities think about the $5B project


Within the 19 locations in 16 U.S. metros competing to land the second headquarters for retail and technology giant Amazon, there are varying degrees of enthusiasm and support, according to a new survey by the Elon University Poll conducted in partnership with The Business Journals.

The Elon Poll/The Business Journals survey gauged public opinion in these metro areas — many of the country’s largest — about landing the project, which promises to be home to 50,000 workers and an investment of $5 billion. The Elon Poll found enthusiasm for the project strongest among Atlanta and Pittsburgh, with more than half the populations in those cities saying they “strongly support” Amazon creating a second headquarters there.

Support for landing Amazon HQ2 was lowest in Austin, Texas, and in Denver, Colorado. In both cities, only about one in three said they strongly supported the project and outright opposition to the project was the highest among the metros surveyed. In Denver, 16 percent oppose the project and in Austin, 13 percent are against it, while among the other cities the level of opposition ranged from 2 to 7 percent.




https://www.elon.edu/E-Net/Article/161105

[freerover]

I think local support would go up quite a bit if Amazon committed to funding parts of Project Connect.

[StoOgE]

Originally Posted by freerover

I think local support would go up quite a bit if Amazon committed to funding parts of Project Connect.

No it won't. This city is filled with anti-business low-information citizens who would merely bemoan "traffic" and "tech bros" and big business. I have friends who call Mayor Adler "controversial" but can't name a policy reason why. They do things like complain about traffic but also complain about density. And complain about lack of public transit but won't take the bus and voted against light rail.

Urban areas and the left are filled with just as many low information voters as the right. Just, the lefts aren't also white supremacists.. so win?

I mean, it's not new to tech companies. Most cities with large tech companies (inclusive of Seattle) bite the hand that feeds them by blaming the company for the cities problems.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by We vs us

This seems on-point:

Elon Poll on Amazon HQ2: What residents in 19 U.S. finalist cities think about the $5B project


Within the 19 locations in 16 U.S. metros competing to land the second headquarters for retail and technology giant Amazon, there are varying degrees of enthusiasm and support, according to a new survey by the Elon University Poll conducted in partnership with The Business Journals.

The Elon Poll/The Business Journals survey gauged public opinion in these metro areas — many of the country’s largest — about landing the project, which promises to be home to 50,000 workers and an investment of $5 billion. The Elon Poll found enthusiasm for the project strongest among Atlanta and Pittsburgh, with more than half the populations in those cities saying they “strongly support” Amazon creating a second headquarters there.

Support for landing Amazon HQ2 was lowest in Austin, Texas, and in Denver, Colorado. In both cities, only about one in three said they strongly supported the project and outright opposition to the project was the highest among the metros surveyed. In Denver, 16 percent oppose the project and in Austin, 13 percent are against it, while among the other cities the level of opposition ranged from 2 to 7 percent.

https://www.elon.edu/E-Net/Article/161105

I question what the margin of error is for this (online, opt-in) poll, and if a meaningful distinction can be drawn between "13 percent are against it" and 7 percent.

[We vs us]

I don't necessarily think you're wrong, but at least for me it tracks my personal sentiment barometer. Not just how I feel, but how people I talk to -- in both Austin and DC -- feel.

Hell, even the Mayor himself won't publicly stump for it. His first (and only) major statement about it immediately went to how Amazon will help fix our problems, rather than some of the basic political tentpoles like "quality job creation!" etc.

[AusTxDevelopment]

I'm pretty sure they are going to DC...

Amazon joins DC Chamber of Commerce
https://www.businessinsider.com/amaz...cussion-2018-9

Amazon joins Economic Club of Washington DC, Bezos surprise guest speaker at 9/13 Milestone Celebration Dinner
https://www.economicclub.org/