Confederation Line (Stage 1) | In Service 1.0

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by roger1818

If (and that is a big if) the Trillium Line trains (at the projected 12 min frequency) are full when they arrive at Bayview, and if it takes 4 Confederation Line trains (at a 3 minute frequency) to clear the platform, statistically it might be meeting the demand, but it would be a very frustrating experience for the the people who have to watch 3 trains go by.

Again though. This assumes that there's exactly zero change in service in 2021 after 3 years of data and experience. Why would that be the case? Do you think that if Confederation Line ridership is vastly greater than predicted, that OC Transpo wouldn't respond with longer trains and higher frequency?

I also think we won't see max ridership at Bayview either. As long as it's quick to get from Barrhaven to the Confederation Line at Baseline and most of the south gets bus routes that take them to Hurdman, the catchment for the Trillium Line remains limited. Carelton will be the driver on there.

Originally Posted by roger1818

Now this is not to say that there will be no value in building a second downtown tunnel 30 years from now (sometime around 2050) as that will provide many other benifits, but it is a bit early to be planning that, as the city will have changed a lot by then and most of the current politicians will be long gone.

I really don't get such definitive predictions. So much could change. In 30 years, we don't know what work and residential patterns will look like. Will most people still be commuting for 9-5 jobs? Will there be more people living in the core? Inside the Greenbelt? Where would those new residents be distributed?

[OtrainUser]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Again though. This assumes that there's exactly zero change in service in 2021 after 3 years of data and experience. Why would that be the case? Do you think that if Confederation Line ridership is vastly greater than predicted, that OC Transpo wouldn't respond with longer trains and higher frequency?

I also think we won't see max ridership at Bayview either. As long as it's quick to get from Barrhaven to the Confederation Line at Baseline and most of the south gets bus routes that take them to Hurdman, the catchment for the Trillium Line remains limited. Carelton will be the driver on there.




I really don't get such definitive predictions. So much could change. In 30 years, we don't know what work and residential patterns will look like. Will most people still be commuting for 9-5 jobs? Will there be more people living in the core? Inside the Greenbelt? Where would those new residents be distributed?

You are forgetting that ridership might drop because of the forced transfers. You cant expect everyone that has been using an express bus for a long period of time to start using the train. A lot will simply go back to driving their cars and transit ridership will drop. I expect the ridership problems to be solved after stage 2 is completed as well as stage 3.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by OtrainUser

You are forgetting that ridership might drop because of the forced transfers. You cant expect everyone that has been using an express bus for a long period of time to start using the train. A lot will simply go back to driving their cars and transit ridership will drop. I expect the ridership problems to be solved after stage 2 is completed as well as stage 3.

During construction? Maybe. After Stage 2? Transit may well be faster than driving for most commuters. And a lot cheaper. Parking isn't getting any cheaper in ottawa.

[OtrainUser]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

During construction? Maybe. After Stage 2? Transit may well be faster than driving for most commuters. And a lot cheaper. Parking isn't getting any cheaper in ottawa.

Construction of phase 2 will have to factor in as well but in my opinion phase one is just a starting point not a solution like the city of ottawa is trying to make it out to be. Id rather look at ridership numbers after phase 2 is complete then we would have a better idea on what should be done with bus service after that. Phase 1 is about cost control not providing better service otherwise they wouldn't be laying off 350 bus drivers December 1.

Im very sure people will find alternatives to public transit is bus service continues to degrade no matter how much parking will cost. People always look for the easiest and most convenient solutions. Luckily for OC Transpo Im already used to transferring 2, 3 or 4 times to get to my workplace so i don't really care that much about transfers like most people would.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Again though. This assumes that there's exactly zero change in service in 2021 after 3 years of data and experience. Why would that be the case? Do you think that if Confederation Line ridership is vastly greater than predicted, that OC Transpo wouldn't respond with longer trains and higher frequency?

Not at all. The potential problem isn't an issue with average capacity, but peak capacity. Since you don't seem to get it, I will give you another example:

Imagine you are working at McDonalds and you are able to serve 10 customers every 3 minutes. That means you can serve 200 customers in an hour(10 x 20). The problem is this McDonalds is in a train station and trains arrive every 12 minutes and on each train you get 40 customers, which works out to 200 customers an hour (40 x 5). That's perfect, right? Well the problem is people get upset if they have to wait more than 6 minutes for service. Since half of your customers are waiting more than 6 minutes, they are unhappy. To make them happy you propose that they double the staff so that you can serve everyone within 6 minutes. But your manager doesn't want to do that, since if he does the staff are all busy for 6 minutes and then twiddling their thumbs for 6 minutes, so they are inefficient.

It isn't a perfect analogy, but it gives you a picture that increasing the capacity of the line to meat the peak needs of 1 train in 4 means that 3/4 of the trains will be below capacity.

I really don't get such definitive predictions. So much could change. In 30 years, we don't know what work and residential patterns will look like. Will most people still be commuting for 9-5 jobs? Will there be more people living in the core? Inside the Greenbelt? Where would those new residents be distributed?

What definitive prediction did I make? All I said was that there could be value in building a second tunnel in about 30 years and thus it shouldn't be ruled out "but it is a bit early to be planning that."

[Vixx]

Originally Posted by Reecemartin

Ottawas growth has been weak yes, however, I would imagine a bunch of TODs and redevelopments happening as a result of the Confederation Line can lead to that ending. If you look at Vancouvers growth on Cambie Post-Canada Line you can get a sense for the type of growth thats possible in less than ten years.

I pretty strongly believe Ottawa will be the last independent CMA outside of Qb to get a serious rapid transit system for the next 20+ years. That combined with trends we are already starting to see (young people want to live closer to downtown, and are willing to move to mid-sized cities to make that happen). It wouldn't surprise me if we see a decent migration of young people from the GTA to Ottawa as part of that trend. Meanwhile, with all the demand in Toronto and Vancouver it seems like we can sustain more significant development and investment and Montreal still appears to be struggling to attract it, perhaps Ottawa will see some

I think that trend has already begun. Anecdotally, I know a number of ex- Torontonians who have moved to Ottawa for work and to have a reasonable cost of living. Both of my former roommates were from Toronto who moved for that exact reason.

Ottawa has experienced modest growth but I think thats a good thing. If we were to experience a mass influx of people moving here like what has been experienced in Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton for example, we'd see the same knee jerk urban planning decisions be made that would bite us in the 🞵🞵🞵 hard down the line. Considering the city has already made some questionable decisions over the years, we can only imagine what would happen if the population began to skyrocket. Ottawa's already a desired place to live, but our industries require a relatively well educated workforce that dictate who will be able to succeed here long term.

All this to say, phase 1 of LRT is the beginning of a solution as mentioned. It won't be until phase 2 until we see the real effects of peoples transpiration habits and whether they have changed or not. I have a positive outlook on the whole.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Not at all. The potential problem isn't an issue with average capacity, but peak capacity.

I do understand you. What I am saying is that the assumption that you will see 3 trains go by before you can transfer is based entirely on the assumption that they will invest the better part of a billion dramatically increasing capacity and ridership on the Trillium Line with exactly zero change to service on the Confederation. Could that happen? Sure. Is that likely to happen? Probably not.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Vixx

I think that trend has already begun. Anecdotally, I know a number of ex- Torontonians who have moved to Ottawa for work and to have a reasonable cost of living. Both of my former roommates were from Toronto who moved for that exact reason.

What I find odd is the assumption that Torontonians who move to Ottawa are all looking to live that dense urban lifestyle. It blows my mind to read on here the happy assumption that all these Torontonians are going to densify Ottawa. I'm a Toronto transplant. Brought here because of government work. And in my circle of Toronto transplants, I'm the only one that chose a home close to transit. And the more kids my friends have, the further they move from the core and the larger their homes and more car-dependent their lifestyles.

In my experience, there are two kinds of people moving to Ottawa. The first group is brought to Ottawa by their career (usually public or military service). Their living preferences tend to be diverse. Usually more in line with age. The second group comes here by choice, actively seeking out opportunities in Ottawa.

And in my experience, a major driver for that second group to move is quality of life, which they often define as home ownership. They are far more likely to buy a gigantic McMansion in Stittsville than they are to get a condo at Bayview. And as the private sector in Ottawa grows, it's more the second group that is dominating than the first.

If Ottawa wants to build a truly compact, urban city that is less car-dependent, it's going to have to build that. Can't assume at all that new residents are going to push for that.

Will add, it's not just suburban growth that's a problem. I'm starting to see the shrinking condo syndrome in Ottawa. Whereas two bedrooms used to be ~1000 sqft a decade ago, new condos now have two bedrooms in ~800 sqft. This is the Toronto and Vancouver trend where they fit 2-3 bedrooms in < 800 sqft. Nobody is really talking about this in Ottawa. But this trend drives away a lot of families from urban living.

Originally Posted by Vixx

All this to say, phase 1 of LRT is the beginning of a solution as mentioned. It won't be until phase 2 until we see the real effects of peoples transpiration habits and whether they have changed or not. I have a positive outlook on the whole.

Not sure about the public's habit of releasing water from their bodies.... But I doubt transportation habits will change dramatically. We'll see ridership grow a bit. That's just natural after the end of construction. People that were inconvenienced by construction will return to taking transit. To truly reducing car dependence is going to take a reformulation of bus service. As others have noted here, feeder service are terrible in Ottawa. Modal share (especially outside peak) is not going to grow until that is fixed. But I also understand the city's dilemma. Hard to expand feeder service until they really improve system efficiency. And that requires LRT.

[H>T&T>P]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

We are going to see something change. Riverside South will be the first community outside the Greenbelt to receive rail service despite the 10 year delay. The city is already on record wanting development out there to finance the Limebank extension. We are going to see an explosion of development both in Riverside South and Findlay Creek. And since it will precede a Barrhaven extension by a decade, people are going to flood across the Vimy bridge by bus and car to use it. There will be a sudden change in the user base with the opening of Phase 2. It will change fairly quickly from a student majority unless we screw up local transit service, which is very possible. The down side of this; it will become very difficult to have a one or two year shutdown for double tracking. This is why I express a degree of pessimism. The only way to double track at that point is to create a three transfer situation via the southeast transitway or a very slow bus on the current replacement route, which will not satisfy downtown commuters. Think about the 3 transfer situation. Transfer bus to rail in RS, back to bus at South Keys and back to rail at Hurdman. It is scary to think about it.

I am going to agree with you about a significant number of people crossing the Vimy bridge once the south extension is complete. I live in Barrhaven and it will be 5 mins closer than Fallowfield. In the end though it will be the length of trip that will make my decision. When the Baseline extension is complete I would probably switch back. Time will tell.

[OTownandDown]

On the issue of future planning, I have the following story:

Last year, I was standing at Lyon and Queen, looking down at the huge hole which had exposed the side of the main tunnel. A construction worker saw me, came up to me, offered for me to come closer to the edge to look down. There was a 2nd 'access' tunnel extending due south, perpendicular to the main line.. I asked 'what is that for?' and he said 'for the future rail line which will run under Albert or Slater... so you see, the futureproofing is happening

[phil235]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

What I find odd is the assumption that Torontonians who move to Ottawa are all looking to live that dense urban lifestyle. It blows my mind to read on here the happy assumption that all these Torontonians are going to densify Ottawa. I'm a Toronto transplant. Brought here because of government work. And in my circle of Toronto transplants, I'm the only one that chose a home close to transit. And the more kids my friends have, the further they move from the core and the larger their homes and more car-dependent their lifestyles.

In my experience, there are two kinds of people moving to Ottawa. The first group is brought to Ottawa by their career (usually public or military service). Their living preferences tend to be diverse. Usually more in line with age. The second group comes here by choice, actively seeking out opportunities in Ottawa.

And in my experience, a major driver for that second group to move is quality of life, which they often define as home ownership. They are far more likely to buy a gigantic McMansion in Stittsville than they are to get a condo at Bayview. And as the private sector in Ottawa grows, it's more the second group that is dominating than the first.

I'm not sure about this. Obviously all anecdotal, but I'm a Toronto transplant as well. I probably know of 15-20 people in my age group that moved here in the same timeframe (10-15 years ago, all with kids now), and with one exception they all chose more urban neighbourhoods. At least for me, the appeal of Ottawa is that it allows you to live in a walkable, urban neighbourhood without spending a couple of million.

As much as I hear that the Ottawa suburbs are nice, they are really equally as nice as suburbs anywhere. I don't see them as having any great pull on Torontonians who want that lifestyle and are willing to commute. Where Ottawa really shines is in its nice, relatively affordable core neighbourhoods that can offer an actual urban environment. I do think that the city can really capitalize on that if it plays its cards right.

[OCCheetos]

The Confederation Line won't open until early 2019.

https://twitter.com/KatePorterCBC/status/1039150714797211653

[RomanR27]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

The Confederation Line won't open until early 2019.

https://twitter.com/KatePorterCBC/status/1039150714797211653

Great! I'm sure they're keeping all the bus drivers for longer than Dec. 1 now. Right? RIGHT!?

[OCCheetos]

Apparently some of the parts for LRV34 were lost which I guess would explain why it's taken so long to be built.

33 vehicles assembled on time is still impressive considering...

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by RomanR27

Great! I'm sure they're keeping all the bus drivers for longer than Dec. 1 now. Right? RIGHT!?

Manconi just said that they would be changing the layoff date into the new year.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I do understand you. What I am saying is that the assumption that you will see 3 trains go by before you can transfer is based entirely on the assumption that they will invest the better part of a billion dramatically increasing capacity and ridership on the Trillium Line with exactly zero change to service on the Confederation. Could that happen? Sure. Is that likely to happen? Probably not.

I am not suggesting there would be "zero change to service" on the Confederation line, but boosting service on it to a level that be able to rapidly absorb transfers from a popular Trillium Line (within 1 or 2 trains) would cost more money than to a service at a level that will just barely absorb transfers before the next Trillium Line train comes (3 or 4 trains). Given the cost cutting nature of OC Transpo, I suspect they would go for the latter option.

Of course it remains to be seen how popular the Trillium Line will be for people travelling downtown. Will it drop off 50 people per train or 500 people per train? I tend to think it will be on the smaller end (which would be easier to handle), but I could be proven wrong.

[H>T&T>P]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

The Confederation Line won't open until early 2019.

https://twitter.com/KatePorterCBC/status/1039150714797211653

so 27 days ago they were confident

https://www.ottawamatters.com/local-news...t-it-will-meet-november-deadline-1014379

and now the contract is pushed back 28 days?

Maybe they should try being honest!

[PHrenetic]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

The Confederation Line won't open until early 2019.

https://twitter.com/KatePorterCBC/status/1039150714797211653

Good Day.

Good Twitter feed. Here's the CBC article....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/lrt-delivery-late-november-2-1.4817010

Quote:

LRT won't be ready to roll until 2019.....RTG asks city for more time to meet key contract requirements

Joanne Chianello · CBC News

Despite repeated promises that Ottawa's new LRT system would be up and running by Nov. 2, OC Transpo boss John Manconi told city councillors Monday the Confederation Line won't be ready for passengers until early 2019.
The new launch target comes days after the the consortium building the $2.1-billion LRT system informed the city it needed to "carve out" a number of contract requirements in order to meet its Nov. 2 deadline to deliver the light rail system to the city — a request Manconi is recommending councillors reject.

Specifically, Rideau Transit Group (RTG) wants to be excused from a requirement to have all 34 vehicles in operation, and have all stations "substantially" completed by the deadline.
RTG handed over the new schedule on Friday night, OC Transpo boss John Manconi told the city's finance and economic development committee Monday morning.
RTG has asked to push the deadline back to Nov. 30, but Manconi expressed skepticism the consortium can meet that deadline, either.
Once the original deadline passes, RTG will owe a 1-million penalty. The consortium missed its original May 24 deadline for completion.
Councillors on the finance committee are currently discussing the issue.

UnQuote.

NoJoy!

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by H>T&T>P

I am going to agree with you about a significant number of people crossing the Vimy bridge once the south extension is complete. I live in Barrhaven and it will be 5 mins closer than Fallowfield. In the end though it will be the length of trip that will make my decision. When the Baseline extension is complete I would probably switch back. Time will tell.

Hard to say. The schedules on both will be fairly close. But the Confederation Line is one less transfer.

It really depends on how bus routes work. A lot of bus routes will be continuing up the Transitway to Baseline. You won't have to get off the bus at Fallowfield.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by H>T&T>P

I am going to agree with you about a significant number of people crossing the Vimy bridge once the south extension is complete. I live in Barrhaven and it will be 5 mins closer than Fallowfield. In the end though it will be the length of trip that will make my decision. When the Baseline extension is complete I would probably switch back. Time will tell.

Interesting. I am not sure where in Barrhaven you live, but I would guess that it is somewhere close to the Vimy Bridge. For fun I did a quick check using Google Maps and using the corner of Strandherd and Prince of Wales as a starting point (the west edge of the bridge and the most optimal place in Barrhaven for using the Trillium Line):

• it currently takes 7 minutes to drive to the Fallowfield Park & Ride and at 8:00am it ranges from 6 to 12 min.
• it currently takes 3 minutes to drive to the Earl Armstrong and Limebank and at 8:00am it ranges from 3 to 6 min.

These bears out you your claim. However, if you move the starting point even 1.3 KM west to Woodroffe and Strandherd, the results change as follows:

• it currently takes 6 minutes to drive to the Fallowfield Park & Ride and at 8:00am it ranges from 4 to 9 min.
• it currently takes 6 minutes to drive to the Earl Armstrong and Limebank and at 8:00am it ranges from 4 to 10 min.

Which makes either route almost the same. This doesn't prove much more than the best route will depend on where you live in Barrhaven. I would speculate that since far more people in Barrahven live west of Woodrow than east, that Fallowfiled would be a better option for most.

This also doesn't take into account travel time once you get to the station, which we can speculate at all day (and depends on your final destination), but we won't really know until the service starts.