Confederation Line (Stage 1) | In Service 1.0

[zzptichka]

https://twitter.com/MathieuFleury/status/1035568218927259648

[PHrenetic]

Good Day.

Thx, waterloowarrior, but as I cannot use Scribd (for my own reasons),
here is a brief summary of the O-Train Confederation Line Quarterly Update (Q2 - 2018) of 13 August 2018.

** Stage 1 LRT Project Update.

Construction: Stations
<overall, the same motherhood and all-is-well statements per station as in the Q1 update>
<the updates from the RTG website are essentially repeated, as before>

Guideway
<basically complete, with isolation testing, restraining rail installation, ballast profiling>

MUPs, Cycle Lanes and Roadway RE-instatements
Work has begin on Booth Street Bridge cycling improvements.
MUP paving and lighting installations from Hurdman to uOttawa is underway.
Waller St. south of Laurier is scheduled for Q3.

Systems, Vehicle, Testing, Commissioning
OCS rigid rail hangers have been installed on eastbound tunnel track (westbound was noted in Q1 update).
TPSS 3 has been installed at Rideau station (per Q1 update) and awaits Hydro connection.
Train Control System integration testing continues east of uOttawa, and has begun between Tunney's and Pimisi.
P25 radio systems continue installation.
<other items are as per the Q1 update>

Preparation for Operations
<as per Q1 update>

November 2 RSA
RTG is Committed and Confident
Key Activities to monitor:
Rideau station , Vehicle testing in tunnel , End-to-End tests from Blair to Tunney's ,
Multiple train operations in full CBTC mode along the eastern alignment, Pre-Trial running and Trial running.
Critical is the Trail Running period wherein RTG demonstrates full capability including capacity, headways, etc.

Budget June 30, 2018
Project Description ...... Authority ...... Actual Expend .... Obligations/Draws .... Balance
Confederation Line ..... 130,000,000 ... 1,544,716,608 ....... 575,462,518 ...... 9,820,874
C-Line Contingency .... 100,000,000 ........ 41,217,315 ........ 55,673,800 ...... 3,108,885
LRT 417 Widening ....... 224,500,000 .......223,880,602 ............. 238,391 ........ 381,007
<notations as per Q1 description>

Negotiations with RTG on Delay
Using the Project agreement as the basis for negotiations the City and RTG are
working through delays, disputes and recovery of incremental costs.

Funding Partner Events
<fluff>

Ready for Rail
In July, video footage was captured At Blair and Cyrville for the next phase, featuring transit customers
using the bus and LRT system to increase customer familiarity with the line before revenue service launch.

Public Safety Message Regarding OCS
<as per Q1 update>

Stakeholder Relations and Communications
<as per Q1 update, and fluff>

** Stage 2 LRT Project Update

Transfer Agreements with the NCC
..... completed this past June as the City executed the Trillium and Confederation Line Transfer Agreements with the NCC.
..... establish terms for the transfer to the City of property interests and licenses wrt NCC property and required for
constructing, operating and maintaining the Stage 2 project. It also includes detailed provisions regarding the
construction of infrastructure on NCC lands, including parkland improvement works, the payment of parkland improvement
funs by the City to the NCC and the completion of legacy obligations such as the removal of infrastructure forming part
of the City's BRT system.

Procurement Update

The final version of the Project Agreement and Project Specific Output Specifications are complete, a result of a
collaborative effort between the O-Train Planning Office, Owner's Engineer Team, City departments, and critical
stakeholders such as NCC, MTO, OMCIAA.

For both the Trillium and Confederation line procurement, final submissions are anticipated from proponents this fall.
One the final submissions are received, an evaluation team will reviewthe bids for compliance, and then score the bids
to decide a preferred proponentfor both lines. A report to Council is scheduled for December,
which will recommend the preferred proponent.

Environmental Update

The City has approved EAs for both projects. As there have been additions and changes since their 2016 EAs,
amendments have been required.

The Maitland Bridge Municipal Class EA is now complete. The project includes bridge widening to accommodate cycle tracks
and wider sidewalks, modifications to the south and north ramps, and provision of transitions.

The Federal Envirnmental Effects Evaluation for the Trillium and Confederation Lines are nearing completion.

Byron Corridor Tree Relocation Project and Tree Canada Grant

.... Trees were moved to several locations, including Redwood, Sherbourne, Westwood, Woodroffe, New Orchard, McEwan parks,
along the SJAM Parkway, and on a small number of private lots,
working with ward councillors to area residents who could accommodate them.
To help, the City received a $25K grant from Tree Canada, part of the CN EcoConnexions,
one of 27 communities to receive a grant from 140 applications.

This constitutes a brief summary of the O-Train Confederation Line Quarterly Update (Q2 - 2018) of 13 August 2018.

If there are questions......do ask , no problem! :-)
EnJoy!

[Reecemartin]

[Deleted]

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Reecemartin

As I am finally back in TO from Vancouver for the year I was back riding the subway yesterday. I must admit every time I ride the Yonge Line it astounds me. It is absolutely incredible how busy it is even late into the night (the ridership is one of the highest in the world for a single line/service). If Ottawa can concentrate on some great TOD and densification along the Line 1 Route I think the downtown and the corridor could pretty quickly become nearly as manhattanized as the Downtown Yonge Corridor. There's just something fantastic about how much Yonge changed from when I left TO in May until now with several major towers topping out I'd love to see Ottawa focusing on densifying the Confederation Line corridor in a similar way.

Ideally, Ottawa doesn't make the mistake of waiting so long to create a relief line as well. I wouldn't be surprised if one is needed within 20 years of Line 1 opening given all the extensions etc that are planned.

Why do people project their Toronto experience on to Ottawa when there are major differences in context?

Ottawa is not Toronto. And won't be. Ever. Ottawa is a medium sized metro of 1.3 million. Toronto is on the small end of large metro, by global standards. The 416 alone is 2.5 million. With the GTA at 6.5 million.

Next, development patterns don't and won't match. Height restrictions in the core mean much more distribution of tall buildings throughout downtown and along the line than a concentration of 40 storey buildings near stations. As you see in Toronto.

Lastly, in Ottawa's case, the Confederation Line is the relief line. The massive bus congestion on Albert and Slater was the problem. It limited throughput to something like 8000 - 10 000 pphpd. The Confederation Line is supposed to have capacity in excess of 25 000 pphpd at launch. This is about 80% of the capacity of Yonge's capacity south of Bloor (~31 000 pphpd). And yet initial peak ridership for the Confederation Line is only projected at 11 000 pphpd. The suburban extensions don't mean much. It's not new ridership. Most of these riders are already going through the core in buses today.

It would take 20 years of 5% growth on just the Confederation Line to max out. A highly optimistic scenario with ridership growth on the Confederation Line considerably outpacing the city's population growth for a decade and a half. And even then, some modifications to the the line and conversion to heavy rail could easily take the line to 40 000 pphpd. In all likelihood, Ottawa won't need another East-West subway through the core for a generation.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The Confederation Line is supposed to have capacity in excess of 25 000 pphpd at launch.

Not true. The initial capacity will be 10,700 pphpd. It can grow to over 18,000 pphpd by 2031 The ultimate capacity is 24,000 pphpd.

http://www.octranspo.com/ready4rail/o_train_confederation_line_system_faqs

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Not true. The initial capacity will be 10,700 pphpd. It can grow to over 18,000 pphpd by 2031 The ultimate capacity is 24,000 pphpd.

http://www.octranspo.com/ready4rail/o_train_confederation_line_system_faqs

That ultimate capacity is what I was referring to. That's just a function of platform length and signaling which determines how many cars are put through in how many intervals. The 10 700 capacity figure is based on 17 trains of two cars with each car carrying a little over 300 pax. That capacity can easily be dialed up with longer train lengths and higher frequencies.

Run 4 car trains every 3 minutes and you have 24 000 pphpd. And even that can be stretched with 2 min headways and longer trains. The idea that we'll need a relief line for the Confederation Line in the next two decades is pretty far-fetched.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Why do people project their Toronto experience on to Ottawa when there are major differences in context?

Ottawa is not Toronto. And won't be. Ever. Ottawa is a medium sized metro of 1.3 million. Toronto is on the small end of large metro, by global standards. The 416 alone is 2.5 million. With the GTA at 6.5 million.

Next, development patterns don't and won't match. Height restrictions in the core mean much more distribution of tall buildings throughout downtown and along the line than a concentration of 40 storey buildings near stations. As you see in Toronto.

Lastly, in Ottawa's case, the Confederation Line is the relief line. The massive bus congestion on Albert and Slater was the problem. It limited throughput to something like 8000 - 10 000 pphpd. The Confederation Line is supposed to have capacity in excess of 25 000 pphpd at launch. This is about 80% of the capacity of Yonge's capacity south of Bloor (~31 000 pphpd). And yet initial peak ridership for the Confederation Line is only projected at 11 000 pphpd. The suburban extensions don't mean much. It's not new ridership. Most of these riders are already going through the core in buses today.

It would take 20 years of 5% growth on just the Confederation Line to max out. A highly optimistic scenario with ridership growth on the Confederation Line considerably outpacing the city's population growth for a decade and a half. And even then, some modifications to the the line and conversion to heavy rail could easily take the line to 40 000 pphpd. In all likelihood, Ottawa won't need another East-West subway through the core for a generation.

I think it is foolish to follow the Toronto example that has been struggling with capacity issues for many years.

Yes, traditional Toronto has a population of 2.5 million and has two main subway lines. Ottawa has a population that is a little over half that today and the Confederation Line will serve most of that population in some way fairly quickly. That is comparable for a single line that has not even opened yet and needs extension. What we are opening in November is about the same as the original Yonge subway from 1954. If anything we need to catch up.


Yes, we are not going to see massive Toronto style towers downtown, but there will be a building boom, and there will be big towers built away from downtown. In a way, this will put even more pressure on the Confederation Line in the long term.


We need to be proactive and think about the future. Our plans for the south end of the city are not adequate to be transformative. We need better coverage that our peer cities are building today and the near future. Maybe we won't build a second subway tomorrow, but if start planning today, it will take 10 years. So, if we have 25 years to get our act together, we should be starting to think about that second line in the not too distant future.


The city will be better for it.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

That ultimate capacity is what I was referring to. That's just a function of platform length and signaling which determines how many cars are put through in how many intervals. The 10 700 capacity figure is based on 17 trains of two cars with each car carrying a little over 300 pax. That capacity can easily be dialed up with longer train lengths and higher frequencies.

Run 4 car trains every 3 minutes and you have 24 000 pphpd. And even that can be stretched with 2 min headways and longer trains. The idea that we'll need a relief line for the Confederation Line in the next two decades is pretty far-fetched.

I agree capacity can be increased by buying more (and longer) trains and lengthening the platforms. My point is we won't "have capacity in excess of 25 000 pphpd at launch." We won't own enough trains to provide that on day 1.

[daud]

I guess we are now 2 months away from handover.

Is there anyone here really up on the construction progress that might want to comment on the likelihood of trains being fully operational this year?

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Why do people project their Toronto experience on to Ottawa when there are major differences in context?

Probably because Toronto has a subway and Ottawa is effectively building a subway right now.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Ottawa is not Toronto. And won't be. Ever. Ottawa is a medium sized metro of 1.3 million. Toronto is on the small end of large metro, by global standards. The 416 alone is 2.5 million. With the GTA at 6.5 million.

I don't think the comments about TOD and the potential developments along the LRT corridor are necessarily out of place. TOD and LRT having an affect on densification can occur in any city that increases their transit base and infrastructure; Ottawa is no different from any other city that prioritizes LRT/subways through its core.

Ottawa is currently seeing an increase in developments along the LRT route (Trinity Station/Lebreton, Tunney's, Blair...) and it can be said to be similar, relatively speaking to scale, to the developments happening along the Yonge Line (too long to list).

Ottawa's going to see a big bump in densification in the coming years as the LRT provides some reliability and frequency of movement for transit users. This is no different than the TOD happening in most large Canadian cities right now.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Ottawa's going to see a big bump in densification in the coming years as the LRT provides some reliability and frequency of movement for transit users. This is no different than the TOD happening in most large Canadian cities right now.

The "bump" in densification is dependent entirely on what Ottawa developers are able to economically propose, and what Ottawa city hall is willing to approve.

On both counts, the track record is awful.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Probably because Toronto has a subway and Ottawa is effectively building a subway right now.

And in 1951 (3 years before Toronto's subway opened), they had a CMA population of 1,262,000, which is close to Ottawa-Gatineau's 2016 CMA population of 1,323,783 (and not far from the Ontario only portion of 991,726).

Interestingly, Vancouver had a CMA population of 1,266,152 in 1986, the year after SkyTrain began operation, which is also similar.

Montreal was late in the game with their Metro though.

On the other end, both Edmonton and Calgary were early, though both built surface LRT systems, which is more comparable to Ottawa's BRT system than a fully grade separated metro type system. I suspect withing the next decade or two, Calgary and Edmonton will start looking at tunnelling through their downtown core as their systems start to approach their capacity.

[McC]

Originally Posted by roger1818

On the other end, both Edmonton and Calgary were early, though both built surface LRT systems, which is more comparable to Ottawa's BRT system than a fully grade separated metro type system. I suspect withing the next decade or two, Calgary and Edmonton will start looking at tunnelling through their downtown core as their systems start to approach their capacity.

???
Edmonton already has a tunnel through downtown, and Calgary will with their Green Line.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I think it is foolish to follow the Toronto example that has been struggling with capacity issues for many years.

....

Yes, we are not going to see massive Toronto style towers downtown, but there will be a building boom, and there will be big towers built away from downtown. In a way, this will put even more pressure on the Confederation Line in the long term.


We need to be proactive and think about the future. Our plans for the south end of the city are not adequate to be transformative. We need better coverage that our peer cities are building today and the near future. Maybe we won't build a second subway tomorrow, but if start planning today, it will take 10 years. So, if we have 25 years to get our act together, we should be starting to think about that second line in the not too distant future.


The city will be better for it.

These are platitudes that don't mean much to actual transit planning. Network planning needs to account for ridership, where population growth will be, and a whole sundry of other city building considerations. Simply arguing that we should have another line through the core ignores all those other considerations.

And the argument for a second line also ignores opportunity costs of those funds. It's at least a billion to build another line that will traverse the downtown core. What's the justification to spend that billion on such a line vs. Stage 3 and double tracking and station reconstruction of the Trillium Line?

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Yes, traditional Toronto has a population of 2.5 million and has two main subway lines. Ottawa has a population that is a little over half that today and the Confederation Line will serve most of that population in some way fairly quickly. That is comparable for a single line that has not even opened yet and needs extension. What we are opening in November is about the same as the original Yonge subway from 1954. If anything we need to catch up.

Ottawa's projected population in 2041 is 1.334 million, according to the government's projections:

https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/table12.html

Assuming a generous 2% growth for Gatineau (double the growth rate for the last few years...as per wikipedia), that's 545 000 in Gatineau. So in the most agressive growth scenario, Ottawa and Gatineau together aren't exceeding 1.9 million in 2041. And will have 3-4 LRT lines servicing the region, between the Trillium and Confederation Lines and whatever is built on the Gatineau side. I fail to see where we are falling behind on higher order transit. Ottawa and Gatineau will probably still have higher transit modal share than the GTA in 2041.

By 2041, hopefully, the Trillium Line will be twin tracked, and Stage 3 extensions to Kanata and Barrhaven will be complete. Downtown won't be lacking for capacity either. The Confederation Line, with 120m platforms could be expanded past 40 000 pphpd with 5 car trains running on 2 min headways. So there's no real need for another line through the core. What's really needed are improvements on corridors like Rideau-Montreal, Carling, etc. That's far more pressing than more expansion of what is effectively the light metro network.

Originally Posted by roger1818

I agree capacity can be increased by buying more (and longer) trains and lengthening the platforms. My point is we won't "have capacity in excess of 25 000 pphpd at launch." We won't own enough trains to provide that on day 1.

Sorry, I should have said the Confederation Line is built to provide capacity beyond 25 000 pphpd.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Probably because Toronto has a subway and Ottawa is effectively building a subway right now.

Having a subway line doesn't automatically make Toronto and Ottawa peer cities. The GTA is 3x the population of the NCR. And in the coming years, the province actually expects the GTA's share of the province's population to increase, while Eastern Ontario sees its share drop:

See Table A: https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/

If it's subways alone that make cities peers, than I guess we can now compare Tokyo and Ottawa?

Originally Posted by JHikka

I don't think the comments about TOD and the potential developments along the LRT corridor are necessarily out of place. TOD and LRT having an affect on densification can occur in any city that increases their transit base and infrastructure; Ottawa is no different from any other city that prioritizes LRT/subways through its core.

Ottawa is currently seeing an increase in developments along the LRT route (Trinity Station/Lebreton, Tunney's, Blair...) and it can be said to be similar, relatively speaking to scale, to the developments happening along the Yonge Line (too long to list).

Ottawa's going to see a big bump in densification in the coming years as the LRT provides some reliability and frequency of movement for transit users. This is no different than the TOD happening in most large Canadian cities right now.

The comments on TOD are absolutely fair and spot on. What is baseless is the suggestion that TOD will outstrip the capacity of the Confederation Line in short order, necessitating another East-West line through the core. There's no evidence for that.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by roger1818

And in 1951 (3 years before Toronto's subway opened), they had a CMA population of 1,262,000, which is close to Ottawa-Gatineau's 2016 CMA population of 1,323,783 (and not far from the Ontario only portion of 991,726).

Interestingly, Vancouver had a CMA population of 1,266,152 in 1986, the year after SkyTrain began operation, which is also similar.

Montreal was late in the game with their Metro though.

On the other end, both Edmonton and Calgary were early, though both built surface LRT systems, which is more comparable to Ottawa's BRT system than a fully grade separated metro type system. I suspect withing the next decade or two, Calgary and Edmonton will start looking at tunnelling through their downtown core as their systems start to approach their capacity.

It's not total population that drives the number of transit lines you have. It's population distribution and travel patterns. There's cities in the US with similar population where LRT would be useless. And there's cities in Europe with the same population with full suburban rail and metro systems.

Another thing to keep in mind is that LRT and BRT was not really an option in the 1950s. It's why any city that built higher order transit back then basically built subway and/or suburban rail. Cities today have substantially more options in how to plan and implement higher order transit.

[lrt's friend]

When we talk about opportunity costs, what about the Trim Road extension and Airport spur that are of dubious value? Of course, the only reasons why we are building them at all is because 100% funding is coming from the higher levels of government. The money being used on those projects could have been redirected to other transit projects that would have benefited more people.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

When we talk about opportunity costs, what about the Trim Road extension and Airport spur that are of dubious value? Of course, the only reasons why we are building them at all is because 100% funding is coming from the higher levels of government. The money being used on those projects could have been redirected to other transit projects that would have benefited more people.

As you point out, money is coming from outside sources. So the opportunity cost for what Ottawa is providing is rather low. The alternative is not some other project. It's simply not building these.

Added benefit for Ottawa is that these extensions will reduce bus usage. Let's not forget that the east end is higher on transit usage than the rest of Ottawa. So the Trim extension will free up buses.

[1overcosc]

Trim and Airport have a combined cost of around $350M. IMO, it would have been smart to pull out that money and redirect it to further double tracking of the Trillium trunk.

[PHrenetic]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Trim and Airport have a combined cost of around $350M. IMO, it would have been smart to pull out that money and redirect it to further double tracking of the Trillium trunk.

Good Day.

... but it does not have the cachet and value of the big PR photo-op announcing ".... extended service to ..... ".
The 'mere' basic infrastructure value is not as glossy.

EnJoy!