I haven't seen many people on this forum mention it, but there's a high risk that NIMBY-type council members might have a majority coalition after this November.
1. Troxclair's Open Seat---------------------------------
With Troxclair not running again, the two most serious candidates for her seat seem to be Bobby Levinski and Rich DePalma. (Although recently Troxclair endorsed a new entrant into the District 8 race with a similar "I'll be a conservative voice on the council" profile, it remains to be seen if he'll run a competitive campaign less than 100 days from the election)
Bobby Levinski is joined at the hip with ANC allies and has been endorsed by Laura Morrison. He recently retweeted an article attacking urbanists as faux progressives who are misguided supply-siders who've hijacked municiple policy circles. Needless to say, Levinski would easily be the most anti-density council member on the dais (short of an Almanza victory against Renteria).
Rich DePalma is running a more center-left pragmatist's campaign. The campaign website is somewhat broad on the issues ("I'll support small business and fight for District 8" type language), but it seems like DePalma would not be too far from the median council member on most issues, in my opinion.
2. "Pio" Renteria--------------------------------
James Valadez and sister Susana Almanza are running against him in District 3.
James Valadez will be an anti-density voice on the council given statements he's made to the Austin-American (decrying the "excess density" going up in East Austin). I can't even find a campaign page or website, yet he came $300 short of out raising Renteria outright.
Susana Almanza is hoping to unseat her brother on the council. As we all know, Renteria is pragmatic and has often found himself at odds with the Alter/Pool coalition during more divisive council votes. I don't think I need to explain what it means if Almanza wins. She's a bit of a nut, nuff said.
The danger is that the local and national environments are enough to push Almanza across the finish line. The rapid pace of change in this district is giving many people anxiety, and affordability is likely to be the key issue. That, paired with the national political environment (Democrats are angry, and women have won democratic primaries around the country 2-to-1 against men), means that Renteria better not be complacent - he
probably has a decent chance of losing if he plays this wrong.
3. Mayor Adler vs. Laura Morrison--------------------------------
Laura Morrison just won't go away. There's real reason to think Adler will have a tougher time getting re-elected this time around. Affordability and traffic the big issues and no one in Austin is happy about them. Adler also has the baggage that comes with defending a sometimes controversial voting record, and Adler is the face of the city after all. It wouldn't be surprising if voters go to the polls looking for change.
I'll also say it again, women have been flexing their muscles in elections vs male candidates all over the country. She could get a boost from this trend.
*Possible silver-lining*
4. Kathy Tovo vs Danielle Skidmore---------------------------------------
Danielle Skidmore is running a surprisingly competitive campaign against Tovo for someone new to city politics. Skidmore outraised Tovo $47,000 to $41,000 and is proudly brandishing the urbanist mantle. If she wins, she'd be the new Chris Riley on the council dais.
5. Ora Houston Retiring
Former TCDP Chair
Vincent Harding seems to be the most serious contender for this district - he's well known in the community and has raised the most money in a much shorter period of time. He states support for improving transit on his website, and the usual anti-people moving here/anti-development dog whistles are not present.
All in all, I've not too optimistic about what the city council might look like post-election
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but who likes fish and aquariums?
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