ATLANTA | Development Thread VI

[Martinman]

Originally Posted by montydawg

This the same SimCity rendering we got with Summerville, which will turn out completely different. This is just giving the stakeholders a look at what is possible and I really think the end result will look far from this rendering. We need to wait for more detailed renderings, which will show a more realistic vision for the property.

This is obviously a conceptual rendering but it is also entirely realistic. There are 3 or 4 buildings between 15-25 stories and one building around 30 stories. The rest are midrise buildings and unlike Summerhill, the density is entirely appropriate for downtown.

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by Martinman

This is obviously a conceptual rendering but it is also entirely realistic. There are 3 or 4 buildings between 15-25 stories and one building around 30 stories. The rest are midrise buildings and unlike Summerhill, the density is entirely appropriate for downtown.

How is yesterdays rendering realistic when the accompanying article in the ABC said CIM Group projects the development would support 37,000 jobs, not to mention 1,500 hotel rooms, 2,100 apartments and 1 Million sqft of retail?

Do you really believe the rendering accurately depicted these statistics?

[THWg]

It's not a given that HQ2 is coming to Atlanta. Would you rather CIM reveal an overly ambitious plan that would never get built since there's a 1/20 chance that HQ2 comes to Atlanta? The current plan is most likely to get built even if Amazon doesn't choose Atlanta.

It also clearly doesn't fit Amazon's needs. They'll force them to add density if they choose us.

[Dale]

Originally Posted by THWg

It's not a given that HQ2 is coming to Atlanta. Would you rather CIM reveal an overly ambitious plan that would never get built since there's a 1/20 chance that HQ2 comes to Atlanta? The current plan is most likely to get built even if Amazon doesn't choose Atlanta.

It also clearly doesn't fit Amazon's needs. They'll force them to add density if they choose us.

No, Amazon ain't a given. But Atlanta's odds are CONSIDERABLY higher than 1 in 20, unless you really believe it's a tossup between Atlanta and Indy.

[Verge]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

This "LA developer" is the brother of someone who owns the Atlanta Hawks and will be collaborating with the owner of the Atlanta Falcons who's been intimately involved in Atlanta's business community since the 1970s. So I'm pretty sure they know enough about the city to make informed investment decisions.

People seem to forget, a typical developer only pursues projects they know for sure willl maximize their profit, not projects to appease others.

The problem is, and I see it starting to reveal itself, is that people have their expectations set so high for Amazon HQ2 selecting this site that they're going to be sorely disappointed when, if Amazon selects other city, the project is invitably scaled down significantly (after all, it's crazy to think the developer would build so much commercial space based purely on speculation)

Please look at the fine print (see jsvh post), there at 4M, 8M and 12M sf versions-- the agreement is that the 4M sf version is the minimum that can/ will be built-- Amazon would likely push the development to 8M+. And right-- nobody builds high-rises or supertalls to make themselves feel important or satisfy some childhood fantasy of building an 80 story building-- there has to be a market in place-- Atlanta is now a very big city, but we are not LA or NY, we could not build Hudson Yards here.

[Dale]

Originally Posted by Verge

Please look at the fine print (see jsvh post), there at 4M, 8M and 12M sf versions-- the agreement is that the 4M sf version is the minimum that can/ will be built-- Amazon would likely push the development to 8M+. And right-- nobody builds high-rises or supertalls to make themselves feel important or satisfy some childhood fantasy of building an 80 story building-- there has to be a market in place-- Atlanta is now a very big city, but we are not LA or NY, we could not build Hudson Yards here.

And frankly, neither could LA.

[skyscraperpage17]

Probably due to a combination of factors unforseen before (rapidly rising interest rates, Trump's tariffs, labor crisia because of his tough line on illegal immigration, etc.), cost overruns are already becoming an issue for a project that's probably still struggling to get more key LOIs in place.

College Park, Ga., seeks 10Msf, $3.5B in development at Airport City project (Photos)

https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news...-seeks-10msf-3-5b-in-development-at.html

"Estimated infrastructure costs for the site have risen, Jones said. They were originally estimated at between $12 million and $15 million but are now $35 million to $40 million. Mass grading will be required, according to city engineers, he said. The old infrastructure including the former residential street grid and existing water and sewer pipes will have to be removed and replaced to allow for denser commercial development. "

[Street Advocate]

Originally Posted by Dale

And frankly, neither could LA.

IMO, Atlanta should take a look at Chicago's Lincoln Yards at how they are engaging with the community. It's a 70 acre redevelopment project that is looking to include new public park, trail, light rail, and METRA (commuter rail) stations. It's a model of why community input models and how we could be getting more of what we want out of these major developments, compared to just taking w/e the developer proposes and elected officials *think* is best for Atlanta.

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by Verge

And right-- nobody builds high-rises or supertalls to make themselves feel important or satisfy some childhood fantasy of building an 80 story building--.

Actually, they did at two times in history:

1. The roaring 1920s.

2. The late 90s / 2000s real estate bubble.

But yes, none of that was normal/sustainable and those days are long gone. It's not happening in today's economic environment.

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by Verge

Please look at the fine print, there at 4M, 8M and 12M sf versions-- the agreement is that the 4M sf version is the minimum that can/ will be built-- Amazon would likely push the development to 8M+. And right-- nobody builds high-rises or supertalls to make themselves feel important or satisfy some childhood fantasy of building an 80 story building-- there has to be a market in place-- Atlanta is now a very big city, but we are not LA or NY, we could not build Hudson Yards here.

With all do respect Verge, the fine print didn't make it clear if the rendering was the 4M, 8M or 12M version. So at minimum, if I was the developer I would presented renderings yesterday for all three versions.

Keep in mind since 2016 Kasim Reed and the Hawk's owner had promised an "Entertainment District" to rival LA Live. So cut us some slack to those of us who feel yesterdays rendering are either (a) a letdown or (b) BS.

Additionally, didn't the CoA say late last week they are teeing up a minimum of $900 Million in incentives and it could scale to $1.75 Billion if CIM Group builds a campus suitable for HQ2? Look - I am the first person here to tattoo YIMBY across my ass, but if the CoA or CIM Group think they should be entitled to receive $900 Million (at minimum) in tax incentives for what was depicted in the rendering yesterday, they are full of (rhymes with hit)!

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

Probably due to a combination of factors unforseen before (rapidly rising interest rates, Trump's tariffs, labor crisia because of his tough line on illegal immigration, etc.), cost overruns are already becoming an issue for a project that's probably still struggling to get more key LOIs in place.

College Park, Ga., seeks 10Msf, $3.5B in development at Airport City project (Photos)

https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news...-seeks-10msf-3-5b-in-development-at.html

"Estimated infrastructure costs for the site have risen, Jones said. They were originally estimated at between $12 million and $15 million but are now $35 million to $40 million. Mass grading will be required, according to city engineers, he said. The old infrastructure including the former residential street grid and existing water and sewer pipes will have to be removed and replaced to allow for denser commercial development. "

This has nothing to do with HQ2 or does it?

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

This has nothing to do with HQ2 or does it?

The only thing I recall being officially reported is that the project in College Park wasn't ready in time for the deadline to make the list of sites submitted to Amazon HQ2, and that Amazon stated they wouldn't consider sites not submitted by the deadline.

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

With all do respect Verge, the fine print didn't make it clear if the rendering was the 4M, 8M or 12M version. So at minimum, if I was the developer I would presented renderings yesterday for all three versions.

Keep in mind since 2016 Kasim Reed and the Hawk's owner had promised an "Entertainment District" to rival LA Live. So cut us some slack to those of us who feel yesterdays rendering are either (a) a letdown or (b) BS.

Additionally, didn't the CoA say late last week they are teeing up a minimum of $900 Million in incentives and it could scale to $1.75 Billion if CIM Group builds a campus suitable for HQ2? Look - I am the first person here to tattoo YIMBY across my ass, but if the CoA or CIM Group think they should be entitled to receive $900 Million (at minimum) in tax incentives for what was depicted in the rendering yesterday, they are full of (rhymes with hit)!

If taxpayers have to pony up $900 million for a football stadium, I certainly have far less of an issue with ponying up the same amount of money for 4 million sq. ft in office space (which is still a ton and would still have a transformative impact on downtown) to replace a derelict and underused parking lot.

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

The only thing I recall being officially reported is that the project in College Park wasn't ready in time for the deadline to make the list of sites submitted to Amazon HQ2, and that Amazon stated they wouldn't consider sites not submitted by the deadline.

Think a little broader S-17,

Didn't we just hear about a roughly $3.5 Billion development(s) that could produce over 10K jobs...

Think Hope Scholarship...

Think Amazon's focus of education...

Connect the dots.

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

Think a little broader S-17,

Didn't we just hear about a roughly $3.5 Billion development(s) that could produce over 10K jobs...

Think Hope Scholarship...

Think Amazon's focus of education...

Connect the dots.

I'm just sharing what's officially been reported.

If anything going on behind the scenes, I can't confirm nor deny it.

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

If taxpayers have to pony up $900 million for a football stadium, I certainly have far less of an issue with ponying up the same amount of money for 4 million sq. ft in office space (which is still a ton and would still have a transformative impact on downtown) to replace a derelict and underused parking lot.

Not to spank a dead donkey, but the taxpayers are not paying for Mercedes Benz stadium incentives. That money is coming from a tax on hotels and I think rental cars.

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

Not to spank a dead donkey, but the taxpayers are not paying for Mercedes Benz stadium incentives. That money is coming from a tax on hotels and I think rental cars.

Businesses are taxpayers too, but that's besides the point.

(BTW, the hotels don't pay that tax, rather it's passed on to guests such as you and I when we pay our invoices)

Speaking for myself, I have no problem with subsidies if it's going towards high-quality developments (which is what I consider 4+ million sq. ft. of office space in one part of town to be), especially if the same amount in subsidies have already gone to a low-quality development with far less of a multiplier effect and set a precedent.

[THWg]

Originally Posted by Dale

No, Amazon ain't a given. But Atlanta's odds are CONSIDERABLY higher than 1 in 20, unless you really believe it's a tossup between Atlanta and Indy.

And Montgomery County, NoVA, and DC each have a higher chance than Atlanta. Unless you want to make up some random statistics for each city, use what we're given. We have a 1/20 shot.

[Street Advocate]

Cannot wait for Amazon to announce so we can talk about actual buildings/developments again.

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by THWg

And Montgomery County, NoVA, and DC each have a higher chance than Atlanta. Unless you want to make up some random statistics for each city, use what we're given. We have a 1/20 shot.

Yeah Dale - Bezos, CEO of Amazon - the richest man on earth, owns a house in DC so that has to mean Amazon has committed to build their $5 Billion HQ2 somewhere in the DC Metro. Connect the dots...moron.

/sarcasm