Amazon HQ2 bid

[Atlanta3000]

Prediction
Between now and the week of September 10th Amazon will announce the location of HQ2. Based on the NY Times article last week, it doesn't appear they are going to announce a short list. So if I had to guess, next Monday/Tuesday would make the most sense.

Just my $0.02 and a little insider tip!

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

Prediction
Between now and the week of September 10th Amazon will announce the location of HQ2. Based on the NY Times article last week, it doesn't appear they are going to announce a short list. So if I had to guess, next Monday/Tuesday would make the most sense.

Just my $0.02 and a little insider tip!

I waa thinking this week, but I'd also be surprised if this goes beyond Labor Day without a formal update, given how big corporations work (or rather, don't work) following holiday breaks.

BTW, can you please provide a link to that NY Times article? I think I missed it.

[908kiddo]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

Today's hearing on the incentives for The Gulch has gotten the attention of the Chicago Tribune...

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-amazon-atlanta-20180821-story.html

Not going to get too technical or wordy, but to me it's pretty clear as day that Amazon is coming here, and this was even before A3000 all but solidified it


I think for most people it's going to be one of those "well duh, can't believe I worked myself up to try convince myself otherwise" things when it's all said and done

Also, call me a conspiracist but I think the Super Bowl is another clue just hiding in plain sight

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

Mark my words - you will need to buy stock in Costco in T minus 60 days and counting...that's all I can say.

Without saying where, something triggered me to post this July 11th.

Again, I think next Monday or Tuesday is the most logical time frame, but it could be September 10th. Without a doubt it will be Atlanta.

Link to original post:
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showpost.php?p=8248056&postcount=8854

[Mentallect]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

I waa thinking this week, but I'd also be surprised if this goes beyond Labor Day without a formal update, given how big corporations work (or rather, don't work) following holiday breaks.

BTW, can you please provide a link to that NY Times article? I think I missed it.

NOVA is the foregone conclusion.

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

NOVA is the foregone conclusion.

Care to make a bet?

Read this and you will see why Amazon has no business locating there HQ or HQ2 to the DC Metro:

https://247wallst.com/aerospace-defense/...pentagons-10-billion-war-cloud-contract/

[Mentallect]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

Although the below article mainly discusses how small town-like suburbs on the edge of big cities are seeing the biggest influx of Millennials, they also go into how far-reaching the effects of HQ2 could be and how those same small town-like suburbs could be the biggest benefactors from Amazon HQ2.

I say bring it! Let's do it! I'm ready!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alyyale/201...re-moving-and-where-hq2-might-send-them/

"In the event HQ2 lands in Atlanta, nearby Carrollton might see Millennial-spurred growth. The city has an average home price of just $139,000. It might be 45 minutes away, but Chen calls it “a refuge for young city dwellers.”

“With prices high and competition fierce, Millennials are willing to compromise and commute a little bit further for the quality of life they’re looking for: the high priority items being proximity to friends, family, and important hobbies and passions,” he said."

Not true for millennials earning more than $100K a year which AMZN will pay. I could have saved $300K on my house moving 3 miles further, and so could some of my friends and neighbors, but location, location, location is preferable. Millennials want close in urban locations, public transportation, amenities, etc. Suburbs have seen population declines for 20 years in a row for a reason.

[Mentallect]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

Care to make a bet?

Read this and you will see why Amazon has no business locating there HQ or HQ2 to the DC Metro:

https://247wallst.com/aerospace-defense/...pentagons-10-billion-war-cloud-contract/

Amazon wants Pentagon contracts. The primary reason NOVA was chose already is the most educated population is in Washington DC along with its proximity to power, and absence of private sector IT competition for tech talent. The article you linked is par for the course in contracting. As a COR, I see bid protests continually. AMZN is strategic: Scrutiny by the gov't is its poison pill, and regulating AMZN is picking up steam on the Hill. AMZN wants to ingratiate itself in the capital region for contracts and as a hedge against political tampering. You think Amazon has no business in DC? Amazon's only smart move is to come to NOVA, which is less than 0.6 miles from DC proper.

[908kiddo]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

Not true for millennials earning more than $100K a year which AMZN will pay. I could have saved $300K on my house moving 3 miles further, and so could some of my friends and neighbors, but location, location, location is preferable. Millennials want close in urban locations, public transportation, amenities, etc. Suburbs have seen population declines for 20 years in a row for a reason.

Don't you think this works against the argument for NoVa/DC? Where it can be hard to find anything under 350k-400k as is?

[Mentallect]

Originally Posted by 908kiddo

Don't you think this works against the argument for NoVa/DC? Where it can be hard to find anything under 300k as is?

Alexandria, Arlington, and Washington DC consistently ranks in the TOP 10 best cities for millennials. With a $100K + income, expensive housing is not out of reach. Millennials value experiences more than McMansions. Expensive city populations have grown whereas suburb populations have not because jobs are in the cities. Younger people desire shorter commutes, and willingly pay for it.

[908kiddo]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

Alexandria, Arlington, and Washington DC consistently ranks in the TOP 10 best cities for millennials. With a $100K + income, expensive housing is not out of reach. Millennials value experiences more than McMansions. Expensive city populations have grown whereas suburb populations have not because jobs are in the cities. Younger people desire shorter commutes, and willingly pay for it.

I think you're glossing over something extremely fundamental to Amazon's decision, and not even factoring in the even bigger shortage of inventory + rise in housing costs/COL if Amazon were to announce that they were choosing NoVa. Just way too much that can go wrong.

Just think of the disaster that will occur if over 30% of the employees couldn't find housing in the area, regardless of their wages (and let's not forget that 100k is the average, not the minimum)

Or the headaches/red tape that will be present if you're forced to build on already scarce land (if even possible)

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

Alexandria, Arlington, and Washington DC consistently ranks in the TOP 10 best cities for millennials. With a $100K + income, expensive housing is not out of reach. Millennials value experiences more than McMansions. Expensive city populations have grown whereas suburb populations have not because jobs are in the cities. Younger people desire shorter commutes, and willingly pay for it.

Both 908kiddo and I lived in NOVA and DC, so we are not talking out our asses. The DC metro is not fundamentally architected (if that is even a word) for density. You cannot build up there, you have to build out. The DC Metro is also full of NIMBY's against the type of growth HQ2 would require. If Amazon selected DC metro for HQ2, they would already find themselves in the same situation they are in Seattle today. Seriously do you not see the error in your logic?

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

Not true for millennials earning more than $100K a year which AMZN will pay. I could have saved $300K on my house moving 3 miles further, and so could some of my friends and neighbors, but location, location, location is preferable. Millennials want close in urban locations, public transportation, amenities, etc. Suburbs have seen population declines for 20 years in a row for a reason.

What you are saying is true for single Millennials. However, what S17 said with respect to Mellennials fleeing to the far burbs is true for the married with children Millennials.

[Mentallect]

Originally Posted by 908kiddo

I think you're glossing over something extremely fundamental to Amazon's decision, and not even factoring in the even bigger shortage of inventory + rise in housing costs/COL if Amazon were to announce that they were choosing NoVa. Just way too much that can go wrong.

Just think of the disaster that will occur if over 30% of the employees couldn't find housing in the area, regardless of their wages (and let's not forget that 100k is the average, not the minimum)

Or the headaches/red tape that will be present if you're forced to build on already scarce land (if even possible)

All the employees Amazon needs already live in and around NOVA. The most educated population in US history. Most of the people have Bachelors, and mostly in STEM fields, Business, and/other professional fields. The DC region is not ATL or Raleigh. As a percent, only Boston comes close. No import of tech talent is warranted which Bezos knows well which is why 3 areas were chosen within a few miles of each other. Washington DC itself has an oversupply of housing, expensive yes, but abundant.

[Triptychtwo]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

All the employees Amazon needs already live in and around NOVA. The most educated population in US history. Most of the people have Bachelors, and mostly in STEM fields, Business, and/other professional fields. The DC region is not ATL or Raleigh. As a percent, only Boston comes close. No import of tech talent is warranted which Bezos knows well which is why 3 areas were chosen within a few miles of each other. Washington DC itself has an oversupply of housing, expensive yes, but abundant.

You think Amazon is just going to cherrypick 50,000 employees from other companies and nobody is going to move in from out of state/region? Brilliant.

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

All the employees Amazon needs already live in and around NOVA. The most educated population in US history. Most of the people have Bachelors, and mostly in STEM fields, Business, and/other professional fields. The DC region is not ATL or Raleigh. As a percent, only Boston comes close. No import of tech talent is warranted which Bezos knows well which is why 3 areas were chosen within a few miles of each other. Washington DC itself has an oversupply of housing, expensive yes, but abundant.

I posted this back in March. Note SF has the highest concentration of tech workers in the US. That is not to take away from DC's tech population. With that said, there is a vast difference in the tech population in SF, Seattle and Austin - compared to DC. In the first three cities you have the tech talent creating the software, in DC you have tech for back office/support roles primarily. Not many large IT companies are based in the DC Metro.

Very Interesting Data Points

Chart I - Tech Talent by Markets (2011 - 2016) by CBRE

Note Atlanta is only bested by SF for having the fastest growth in the percent of tech jobs over this period (Top 10 Markets). Over this five year period, Atlanta added 43K tech jobs - almost equivalent to the number of jobs HQ2 will add over a decade. I also found it interesting Seattle only has just over 3K more tech jobs. Although the chart doesn't go into detail on COL, I think it is reasonable to assume a market's economy that has a higher concentration of high tech jobs is directly proportional to COL. Atlanta's concentration is 5.2% vs. Seattle's 8.2%. I think the diversity of Atlanta's economy will be a major advantage for us.




Chart II - Tech Talent Gain or Drain by Markets (2011 - 2016) by CBRE

This is probably the most important chart because it illustrates which cities are best able to grow tech talent, retain their tech talent and most importantly attract tech talent. I must say I am completely shocked at the Brain Drain occurring at some of the most favored HQ2 cities: Philly, Los Angles, Washington DC and Boston.



Chart III - Cost to Operate a 500 Person Tech Company by CBRE

No surprise here. New York, Boston, Washington DC, Newark and Denver are the most expensive.

[Mentallect]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

I posted this back in March. Note SF has the highest concentration of tech workers in the US. That is not to take away from DC's tech population. With that said, there is a vast difference in the tech population in SF, Seattle and Austin - compared to DC. In the first three cities you have the tech talent creating the software, in DC you have tech for back office/support roles primarily. Not many large IT companies are based in the DC Metro.

Very Interesting Data Points

Chart I - Tech Talent by Markets (2011 - 2016) by CBRE

Note Atlanta is only bested by SF for having the fastest growth in the percent of tech jobs over this period (Top 10 Markets). Over this five year period, Atlanta added 43K tech jobs - almost equivalent to the number of jobs HQ2 will add over a decade. I also found it interesting Seattle only has just over 3K more tech jobs. Although the chart doesn't go into detail on COL, I think it is reasonable to assume a market's economy that has a higher concentration of high tech jobs is directly proportional to COL. Atlanta's concentration is 5.2% vs. Seattle's 8.2%. I think the diversity of Atlanta's economy will be a major advantage for us.




Chart II - Tech Talent Gain or Drain by Markets (2011 - 2016) by CBRE

This is probably the most important chart because it illustrates which cities are best able to grow tech talent, retain their tech talent and most importantly attract tech talent. I must say I am completely shocked at the Brain Drain occurring at some of the most favored HQ2 cities: Philly, Los Angles, Washington DC and Boston.



Chart III - Cost to Operate a 500 Person Tech Company by CBRE

No surprise here. New York, Boston, Washington DC, Newark and Denver are the most expensive.

Baltimore MD was not added to DC but could be since it is 38 miles away, but about 44 miles from where AMZN will end up in NOVA. If cost of labor was a deciding factor, no company would set up in SF Bay area or New York, etc, but tech companies are which indicates labor costs is not a priority, never has been. ATL is a great city. Earlier this year, I had ATL leading the pack, but new information made it clear ATL was a diversion from the winning locale. A sad fact is ATL has too many blacks, and its an open secret tech companies want white males and Asians who are generally racists, and prefer to live and work around others like them exclusively. We all know this.

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

Baltimore MD was not added to DC but could be since it is 38 miles away, but about 44 miles from where AMZN will end up in NOVA. If cost of labor was a deciding factor, no company would set up in SF Bay area or New York, etc, but tech companies are which indicates labor costs is not a priority, never has been. ATL is a great city. Earlier this year, I had ATL leading the pack, but new information made it clear ATL was a diversion from the winning locale. A sad fact is ATL has too many blacks, and its an open secret tech companies want white males and Asians who are generally racists, and prefer to live and work around others like them exclusively. We all know this.

First, you may want to edit out the pics in your reply or people may get their fur up. Second, whether what you said is true doesn't mean you can't be a little more sensitive in the way you write it. I would change your wording to African Americans and nix "blacks'' from your vocabulary especially when the tone and context of your statement is negative. That is not being just being Politically Correct, but racially sensitive.

I will erase my response when you change yours.

[908kiddo]

Originally Posted by Mentallect

Baltimore MD was not added to DC but could be since it is 38 miles away, but about 44 miles from where AMZN will end up in NOVA. If cost of labor was a deciding factor, no company would set up in SF Bay area or New York, etc, but tech companies are which indicates labor costs is not a priority, never has been. ATL is a great city. Earlier this year, I had ATL leading the pack, but new information made it clear ATL was a diversion from the winning locale. A sad fact is ATL has too many blacks, and its an open secret tech companies want white males and Asians who are generally racists, and prefer to live and work around others like them exclusively. We all know this.

I think it's safe to say your scope is fairly limited

I think you're likely to be more upset that Atlanta wins it because of the point you made more than anything else

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

First, you may want to edit out the pics in your reply or people may get their fur up. Second, whether what you said is true doesn't mean you can't be a little more sensitive in the way you write it. I would change your wording to African Americans and nix "blacks'' from your vocabulary especially when the tone and context of your statement is negative. That is not being just being Politically Correct, but racially sensitive.

I will erase my response when you change yours.

Too late, already reported.

I guess it didn't occur to them that they could also be interacting with black people (including young black professionals such as myself) in these discussions.

In all fairness, they're not the first ones. Several of the regulars on here, meaning the SSP forum in general (I won't name names) have shown their ass and I just don't bother engaging with them.