Halifax Stadium Discussion

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by elly63

So aside from showcasing your soccer bias and hatred for CFL football, exactly what is your point?

We're not Toronto, thank God, neither is Regina, (nor Ottawa nor Hamilton in Ontario) and they don't seem to be doing too bad.

Soccer good, football bad, we get it, problem is your auld country sentiments don't apply here.

The people will decide whether we want or don't want a stadium and we don't have any information yet on how that might or might not come about despite your obvious bias in not wanting it to happen because of your fear any football success will diminish your beloved soccer.

Not my words....the words of the journalist in the Toronto Sun.
A ' Remedial reading and comprehension' course may be helpful for you.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by Colin May

Not my words....the words of the journalist in the Toronto Sun.
A ' Remedial reading and comprehension' course may be helpful for you.

Sorry pal, I was posting about your reason for posting that article. Your agenda is very clear, if that was a soccer stadium you'd be all over it.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Colin May

Not my words....the words of the journalist in the Toronto Sun.

Sorry for nitpicking but there aren't any journalists at the Toronto Sun.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by elly63

The CFL "sweet spot" is now 24k seats with about 1.5k of those being standing party deck areas. 30k is way too much (in this area) to create ticket scarcity and subsequently demand.

With the present TSN TV contract 18k is seen as the break even point.

What I would like to see and what will likely happen are two different things. Pound for pound, Regina has the best stadium in Canada, 33.5k seats at originally 280 million cost. With some additions I believe it came in sub 300 million. I would love to see what you could get with 10k less seats and missing the quirky roof.

That Regina stadium is something else. I'd rate it the best stadium in the country. Maybe one day Halifax will have something like that but for now they should aim for a stadium on par with what the RedBlacks have in Ottawa.

[EpicPonyTime]

Originally Posted by elly63

In my opinion Saputo is aiming our sights a little low but if that's what it will have to take then so be it but my question remains how does tiny Regina build a palace like that and keep the people happy and able to fund the place. Surely Halifax could do as well on a much smaller scale, hell even Moncton was able to do better than Halifax has so far without going into financial ruin.

It's because the province was a partner in funding the stadium.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by isaidso

That Regina stadium is something else. I'd rate it the best stadium in the country. Maybe one day Halifax will have something like that but for now they should aim for a stadium on par with what the RedBlacks have in Ottawa.

Ottawa might not be the best comparison because the thing was nearly half built already and the POG keeps mentioning THF.

I still think the best solution would be to build a full community use fieldhouse. It would cost probably 250 million but it could serve a lot of purposes and it would be something the city could get behind as the use would be primarily for the community. I wish some enterprising councilor would at least raise the subject.

In Calgary a fieldhouse is near the top of the list of wanted/needed infrastructure. Edmonton has that great fieldhouse integrated with Commonwealth Stadium.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by elly63

With the present TSN TV contract 18k is seen as the break even point.

This entirely depends on revenue per ticket. 18K at $40/ticket is different than 20K at $30/ticket. Even with $4M/annum from TSN some teams are still losing money due to varying reasons.

Attendance in the CFL is a discussion that we can have ad nauseam but I can't imagine Halifax draws 24K longterm when Canada's big 3 cities are dropping below 20K and a place like Ottawa is beginning to slip from its usual 24K capacity. I'm of the belief that a 20K modular stadium with potential for further expansion would be wiser than a larger stadium that lacks an ability to be at capacity on a weekly basis. Too small is a better problem to have than too big.

Gate receipts makes up roughly 40% of total revenue for teams like Saskatchewan, Edmonton, and Winnipeg. These teams draw well above the 18K break even that you've cited and still occasionally lose money in a fiscal year. A team like Winnipeg can make a profit in operation but still owe millions a year for its stadium. Edmonton, which doesn't have to pay such loans, can be slightly above break even despite attendances higher than 30K.

Originally Posted by elly63

What the ownership seems to be looking at is a version of Tim Hortons Field in Hamilton (24k seats, 1.5k of which are standing party decks) at a cost of 145 million of which 25 million of that was intended for contingency costs.

Originally Posted by elly63

Ottawa might not be the best comparison because the thing was nearly half built already and the POG keeps mentioning THF.

The potential ownership group seems to want something that blurs the line between TD Place and Tim Hortons Field. Essentially they want a Lansdowne-style development with a Tim Hortons Field buildout. It's an interesting idea but i'm not completely positive on the potential outcomes if this development is in a suburban power centre mold. Lansdowne works because you can bike and transit there relatively easily, and its central location makes it ideal for community events. If it's simply a power centre development then you'll end up with something more akin to the Canadian Tire Centre in Kanata which is something that absolutely should be avoided.

Originally Posted by elly63

In my opinion Saputo is aiming our sights a little low but if that's what it will have to take then so be it but my question remains how does tiny Regina build a palace like that and keep the people happy and able to fund the place.

Regina was able to build Mosaic because:

1. The Riders have a history of being a well-supported team;
2. Regina funded $73M;
3. The province funded $80M with a $100M loan paid off through ticket surcharges;
4. Riders provided rest of funding.

If the City/Province do want to provide funding for a potential stadium in Halifax they should be cognizant of the fact that the stadium, and the surrounding retail attachment, will likely make a loss. Lansdowne typically runs at a loss as does Mosaic Stadium. Of course, if one is smart in building stadiums that are incorporated into urban areas, nearby economic generation and stimulation is enough to offset those losses for the City. There's a difference between a stadium that loses money and does nothing for nearby development and a stadium that loses money and generates economic activity as a spinoff. Rarely is a stadium itself going to generate a profit but it can be used as an economic generator if done well.

Originally Posted by elly63

Surely Halifax could do as well on a much smaller scale, hell even Moncton was able to do better than Halifax has so far without going into financial ruin.

The Moncton Stadium ($17M) and Stade Saputo ($17M+$23M expansion) are two examples of what Halifax should be aiming for. Moncton's is multipurpose and Saputo is bare-bones with revenue generating potential. Low startup cost, low operating cost.

I don't think any of the financials make sense for a Halifax Stadium to be costing upwards of $200M. If the expansion fee for a potential Halifax franchise is around $10M (REDBLACKS had an expansion fee of $7M) it would seem a bit ambitious to put in twenty times that figure into a stadium for them to use, IMO, particularly if there is no guarantee that neither the team, nor the stadium, nor the retail arm will be profitable. The ROI on such a potentially large-scale package of funds has yet to be proven.

A $50M buildout, similar to Saputo, and a $50M mixed-use development attached to the stadium would make more sense than a $200M stadium too large for the target market. Have the ownership group take out loans on the stadium and have the City fund the mixed-use development.

[elly63]

Being profitable is a multivaried issue as you have stated. According to Forbes, Toronto FC is still losing $9 million a year, according to Forbes’ operating income estimates for 2015.

Soccernomics co-author Stefan Szymanski breaks down MLS accounting and predicts a collapse
Premier League football clubs suffer £110m losses despite soaring revenues as players wages balloon

The Canadian Football League has a much more sustainable business model but everything revolves around the stadium. It's never been the tradition of the CFL for rich owners to come in and fund a stadium, it is a shared effort, with most of that from the community. Which is why it always riles me when morons post about a stadium being used only ten times per year, there has to be community involvement. And that is why I would like to see the idea of a fieldhouse explored, even though that ship has sailed and nobody saw the ship leave.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Attendance in the CFL is a discussion that we can have ad nauseam but I can't imagine Halifax draws 24K longterm when Canada's big 3 cities are dropping below 20K

I don't know how that is even relevant when this franchise is more likely to mimic Regina than the three big cities. Similar to Regina attitude wise moreso than the phenomena of averaging 30k attendance.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by JHikka

The potential ownership group seems to want something that blurs the line between TD Place and Tim Hortons Field. Essentially they want a Lansdowne-style development with a Tim Hortons Field buildout. It's an interesting idea but i'm not completely positive on the potential outcomes if this development is in a suburban power centre mold. Lansdowne works because you can bike and transit there relatively easily, and its central location makes it ideal for community events. If it's simply a power centre development then you'll end up with something more akin to the Canadian Tire Centre in Kanata which is something that absolutely should be avoided.

I concur with that

[elly63]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Gate receipts makes up roughly 40% of total revenue for teams like Saskatchewan, Edmonton, and Winnipeg. These teams draw well above the 18K break even that you've cited and still occasionally lose money in a fiscal year. A team like Winnipeg can make a profit in operation but still owe millions a year for its stadium. Edmonton, which doesn't have to pay such loans, can be slightly above break even despite attendances higher than 30K.

Bombers Post Operating Profit of $5.1 million in 2017
Eskimos 2017 Report to Shareholders

[SkahHigh]

Originally Posted by elly63

I don't know how that is even relevant when this franchise is more likely to mimic Regina than the three big cities. Similar to Regina attitude wise moreso than the phenomena of averaging 30k attendance.

The lack of an important professional sports team is exactly what can make the CFL popular in mid-sized cities like Regina, Hamilton and Halifax.

People don't care about the Als in Montreal because a) They — and b) The Habs take up 75% of media space (the remaining 25% is shared between the Impact and the Als)

[elly63]

Originally Posted by SkahHigh

People don't care about the Als in Montreal because a) They —

After watching last night they might not — for much longer.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by elly63

Being profitable is a multivaried issue as you have stated. According to Forbes, Toronto FC is still losing $9 million a year, according to Forbes’ operating income estimates for 2015.

TFC could transfer Giovinco for millions and save that $9M on his salary ($7M/year) alone. Given their franchise valuation they're not particularly worried about $9M/season red ink. Comparatively, CFL teams don't have the ability to sell their players for millions of dollars, or to shave off millions in salary by transferring said players for cash.

Originally Posted by elly63

Soccernomics co-author Stefan Szymanski breaks down MLS accounting and predicts a collapse

For the record on this Szymanski is notoriously anti-MLS for a number of reasons, some of which I do agree with. He's been hoping for the MLS to fail since its inception.

Originally Posted by elly63

I don't know how that is even relevant when this franchise is more likely to mimic Regina than the three big cities. Similar to Regina attitude wise moreso than the phenomena of averaging 30k attendance.

It's relevant because cities three times the size of Halifax are drawing below CFL average and Halifax is being expected by some to be an above-average CFL attendance team from the get-go. I find it difficult to imagine is all. Calgary is beginning to dip down to the mid-20K range and they're not only the best team but in a very traditional CFL market. Expecting Halifax to draw above league average is a lot to ask of an expansion team in a brand new market for the league, at least IMO.

Originally Posted by elly63

Bombers Post Operating Profit of $5.1 million in 2017
Eskimos 2017 Report to Shareholders

The $5.1M "operating profit" from the Blue Bombers is fun accounting language they use to look more profitable than they actually are. The $5.1M is before the team pays their yearly $3.5M loan on their stadium, so in reality their profit for the season was $1.6M. The year before they lost $1.6M after the loan repayment.

Edmonton's net profit of $400K, when they draw over 30K to games, is contrary to the 18K breakeven attendance point that you posted earlier. Edmonton at times draws double that 18K figure and seemingly come closer to breakeven than other teams that draw fewer to their games. Lately, Edmonton's total attendance has remained at a relatively stable level as their gate receipt revenue has gone up, essentially meaning that they're charging more per ticket (and concessions, I suppose). Most of Edmonton's revenue streams are up as are their expense streams. In a normal year the Eskimos might post a $1.5M profit as they probably should as one of the most stable teams in the league.

The financial sustainability of the CFL franchises is probably a bit more secure now that the league is sharing profits from the Grey Cup as well as instituting a football operations salary cap for next season, which has essentially been the reason why non-player team expenses have been running so high for most teams. I suppose doing this would be limiting the Western teams and making things a bit more equal for the Eastern teams, although I could be wrong.

Originally Posted by SkahHigh

People don't care about the Als in Montreal

What's the old saying? Montreal isn't a hockey town it's a Habs town?

I feel like people's sport opinions in Montreal change with the weather. Probably the most finicky sports market in Canada.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by JHikka

TFC could transfer Giovinco for millions and save that $9M on his salary ($7M/year) alone.

Regardless of the excuse they are still losing money.

Originally Posted by JHikka

For the record on this Szymanski is notoriously anti-MLS for a number of reasons, some of which I do agree with. He's been hoping for the MLS to fail since its inception.

Kind of like a large number of TFC fans hoping and calling for the Argos to fail and posting that on CFL sites often posing as supposed "fans". Deliciously ironic.

Originally Posted by JHikka

It's relevant because cities three times the size of Halifax are drawing below CFL average and Halifax is being expected by some to be an above-average CFL attendance team from the get-go. Expecting Halifax to draw above league average is a lot to ask of an expansion team in a brand new market for the league, at least IMO.

Exacly who is expecting the new team to be above average in attendance? Is there more than one example of someone relevant having said that? I certainly don't think there is any groundswell of people suggesting it, otherwise this whole stadium debate would be a non issue.

Precedent has been set been set by your own MLS team, Seattle Sounders, leading the league as a new franchise. Do I expect Halifax to outdraw Regina, of course not. But I still don't see the relationship you're making between the new team and the three present poorest markets. Also, to make an excuse, Calgary is playing in one of the league's worst venues as evidenced by many who post in the CFL thread, true or not, I don't know.

Originally Posted by JHikka

The $5.1M "operating profit" from the Blue Bombers is fun accounting language they use to look more profitable than they actually are.

So the publicly owned teams are using fun accounting language, are you sure it isn't your funny interpretation, a 9 million TFC loss isn't a loss but a CFL profit isn't a profit.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by elly63

Regardless of the excuse they are still losing money.

Mostly down to the fact that they have a fairly high player payroll compared to other MLS clubs. TFC spends roughly $26MUSD on its players, $9MUSD more than any other team. They're not exactly bleeding money from pure operation or anything along those lines. TFC can be in the black if they so choose which is less of an option for some CFL franchises.

I'm not exactly sure what your goal is in trying to compare the two. The CFL is not the MLS, particularly when it comes to financials.

I'd recommend reading this article highlighting how 14 of the 30 NBA teams are losing money and why that does and doesn't matter. CFL team valuations are nowhere near those of the NBA, NHL, or even the MLS, so a yearly loss against total franchise value in the CFL is a bit more stark.

Originally Posted by elly63

Exacly who is expecting the new team to be above average in attendance? Is there more than one example of someone relevant having said that? I certainly don't think there is any groundswell of people suggesting it, otherwise this whole stadium debate would be a non issue.

Leblanc:

“We think it’s in the 24,000 fixed range but expandable so we can go after events such as a Grey Cup and other international events…”
[Source]

This to me says he expects 24K/game, unless you're assuming he wants to build a stadium too large for an expansion CFL franchise.

This forum, along with others online, seems to have a pretty common perception that Halifax should be able to attract 24K/game which is currently above league average. I'm more of the opinion that a 20K max stadium would be a wiser choice given the supply/demand of gate revenue in other CFL markets.

Originally Posted by elly63

Precedent has been set been set by your own MLS team, Seattle Sounders, leading the league as a new franchise. Do I expect Halifax to outdraw Regina, of course not. But I still don't see the relationship you're making between the new team and the three present poorest markets. Also, to make an excuse, Calgary is playing in one of the league's worst venues as evidenced by many who post in the CFL thread, true or not, I don't know.

Your insistence on me being a fan of the MLS is amusing but doesn't exactly lend any credence to your argument.

Nobody is expecting Halifax to be outdrawing Saskatchewan but it seems like many are assuming they will be outdrawing BC/TOR/MTL in their first season. In an expansion season? Probably, but further down the road it seems unlikely longterm. Ottawa is proving to be a good example right now and Ottawa's market area is three times Halifax's. It may be awkward if Halifax builds a hundred million dollar stadium and there are empty seats in Year 2, or Year 3, or Year 4.

I'm not saying it will happen, I'm warning against the possibility. A smaller stadium (18K/20K) makes the likelihood of empty seats less likely and creates a good news story if the popular support is there for Halifax to have to expand their stadium after a year or so. Otherwise, you're left with a larger stadium and added pressure to make sure it's full for optics sake. A smaller 18K/20K stadium also makes markets like London a bit more feasible, IMO.

Originally Posted by elly63

So the publicly owned teams are using fun accounting language, are you sure it isn't your funny interpretation, a 9 million TFC loss isn't a loss but a CFL profit isn't a profit.

Your insistent concern with TFC/MLS is fascinating but, again, doesn't lend anything to your argument.

My opinion on the Blue Bombers accounting language is similar to that used by the Winnipeg Sun:

"After the club’s loan payment of $3.5 million to Triple B Stadium – which owns the facility – the Bombers posted a profit of $1.57 million, according to its audited financial statement. That’s an improvement over the $1.65 million loss the previous year. (The Bombers don’t call it a loss, they call it a $2.8 million profit, but that’s before the 2016 payment to Triple B Stadium)."[Source]

Operating income is notably different from operating profit/loss, as outlined in the Eskimos Annual Report:

"EXCESS OF REVENUE OVER EXPENSES (NET INCOME)
Net Operating Income for 2017 was $591,704 (vs. $2,138,450 in 2016). Excess of revenues over expenses (Net Income) for the Edmonton Eskimo Football Club in 2017 was $431,638."

[someone123]

There is uncertainty for sure but Halifax (really Atlantic Canada) could turn out to be a bigger CFL market than a city like Ottawa. Ottawa is 3x larger but it has a similar hinterland with a lot more competition for sports entertainment dollars. They have an NHL team and they are 2 hours from Montreal.

I think most people underestimate the draw Halifax has for regionally unique special events. Halifax Pride for example gets about 50% more people than Ottawa. A naive prediction based on metropolitan populations would suggest that Halifax's Pride should be about 1/5 the size that it is.

Likewise for conventions the Nova Centre is about the same scale as the Ottawa convention centre. They both cost in the $150M range. The Nova Centre is now packed with bookings. It is the only place of its kind in the region.

It does seem like a good idea to start with a cheaper but flexible/expandable stadium.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Your insistent concern with TFC/MLS is fascinating

Well, you know I wouldn't have that if you and your buddies wouldn't do what you do. I see one website has finally cottoned on to them.

I find it fascinating that a guy can only post great exaltations and positivity in the MLS forum and only negativity in the CFL forum and have control in the latter forum to boot. Now that is fascinating!

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by elly63

Well, you know I wouldn't have that if you and your buddies wouldn't do what you do. I see one website has finally cottoned on to them.

I find it fascinating that a guy can only post great exaltations and positivity in the MLS forum and only negativity in the CFL forum and have control in the latter forum to boot. Now that is fascinating!

You're the one that continually brings up the MLS in non-MLS threads.

As you've been reminded repeatedly throughout this forum if you can't keep posts on topic they'll be removed. The same goes for accusing and berating other users for opinions that may or may not differ from yours.

--

Since we're going to actually keep this thread on topic, LeBlanc gave an interview in Arizona this week where he states that they're down to three locations for a Halifax stadium:

http://arizonasports.com/story/1622022/f...anc-talks-cfl-cannabis-coyotes-memories/

"The other thing we have to do – and this is when I start getting cold sweats thinking about the arena stuff with the Coyotes – we’re down to three stadium sites for the team. We’ve got to finalize the site and this will happen sometime this month."

[c-way-dude]

http://www.3downnation.com/2018/08/22/af...r-putting-together-cfl-stadium-proposal/