Quote:
Originally Posted by wonshirim
Exactly my point. It's almost impossible to keep secret the HQ2 winner without giving it away before the big announcement. Here are 3 possible announcement scenarios:
1. Amazon does a press conference in Seattle -> BORING! Not going to happen
2. Amazon has planned a huge media event planned in [ Insert Name of City ], which will be attended by Jeff Bezos and politicians. Stay tuned! -> They gave it away anyway before the announcement...
3. Jeff Bezos gets invited to a regularly televised event attended by local/national political and business leaders for a speech. People are unsuspecting. Then--voila!
Doesn't Jeff Bezos' Economic Club of Washington DC speech fit scenario 3 perfectly? Considering how highly publicized the HQ2 search is, HOW they announce seems just as important as WHEN they will announce.
|
1. Jeff Bezos speaking at the Economic Club in Washington on Sept 13th was announced last May. So did Amazon's HQ2 team know in May this would be the time frame they would want to make an announcement and scheduled Jeff's attendance at that the Economic Club accordingly?
2. In October of 2016, Jeff Bezos spoke at the New York Economic Club - so his attendance at Economic Club of DC is not a one off.
3. The DC Economic Club only has 700 club members and only limited media. If Jeff Bezos was going to make the HQ2 announcement at this event:
* The whole event would be centered around the HQ2 announcement and Bezos would not be pontificating his thoughts on current economic events which is the intended purpose of this Economic Club. Make sense?
* If you were the Governor of the State and the Mayor of the City selected for HQ2, wouldn't you be pissed if Amazon chose to make the announcement at a venue you were not invited? Therefore I do not believe the Economic Club event is a proper venue. Given this is the the biggest economic event in a generation and the biggest business news story globally, I would expect the announcement to be a televised press conference with Amazon's Executive Team and the selected city's Mayor and team and State's Governor and Team. PR-101
The more likely scenario if DC metro is selected would be for Jeff Bezos and Amazon to plan the HQ2 announcement the day before or after.
Quote:
Originally Posted by scania
I have to ask, how is that when it come to DC and NoVa, it’s never about Amazon, no matter how big the news. But when it comes to Atlanta, no matter how small it is, it’s all about Amazon??? There’s a point where at least on paper, you can’t be so bias...unless you already know. But even with Apple, there would be a ton of leaks. Teach me, persuade me, I’m on your side. I want Atlanta to get Amazon. Unless Amazon is going to rape the city. That’s one thing I’m afraid of happening here.
|
If you see wonshirim logic (See Post #969) concerning Bezos attendance at the Economic Club of DC, we are polar opposite. That is not to say one is right and one is wrong. Truthfully I just assume most everyone has the same rational/logic as I do. So note to self - never assume. My MO is not to be anti-DC/HQ2, I am just applying my logic (not bias) every time I see a post(s)/articles(s) concering HQ2/DC Metro/event and author states this confirms DC is a finalist. Truthfully I have not seen one solid data point demonstrating DC is in the lead
If you have read my posts here, I have posted countless data points that when connected together paint Atlanta as the city that will be selected for HQ2. I also sent the most important research I had to CRE Reporters to validate critical information I have not posted here.
Back to the DC Metro being the city Amazon selects for HQ2, there are only a few data points any reasonable person could cobble together to back this theis:
1. AWS, Amazon's most profitable business unit, East Coast HQ is in Herndon, VA. Herndon is the equivalent to Alpharetta, except for it is next to Dulles Airport. One common mistake the media makes is Northern Va is not the HQ for AWS. Herndon/Northern VA is the East Coast HQ for AWS (see link below). I attached a link to Google Maps showing AWS' Northern VA campus. Ask yourself if this looks like an Advanced Urban Campus the HQ2 selection team has said is the desired setting?
https://liftrnews.com/aws-chooses-northern-virginia-new-hq/
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Amazon...f79a0ec48!8m2!3d38.9557916!4d-77.3963883
2. Jeff Bezos owns the largest house in Washington DC. OK - and he also own a home in Seattle, a massive ranch in Van Horn, TX, a very modest $7 Million condo in Manhattan and two estates in Beverly Hills. Help me understand why this data point would mean HQ2 will be in DC metro?
https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bez...tates-2017-10#beverly-hills-california-3
3. Northern VA is the backbone of the internet and Amazon has several massive data centers in Northern VA. OK - Northern VA has 75 data centers. With that said, whoever believes this particular data point is a good indicator Amazon will select the DC Metro - help me understand why? If you look at the companies currently based in the DC Metro, they are predominately Government Contractors, Consultants/Professional Services and Non-Profits and I would argue none of them were attracted to the DC Metro because the approximately to a cluster of data centers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_headquartered_in_Northern_Virginia
4. Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post (purchased in 2013). This reason alone is why believe Amazon will not pick DC. As long a Donald Trump or the Republicans Party are in the majority in DC, then Bezos and Amazon have a target on their backs. Trump and the Republicans believe the Washington Post has Liberal bias/fake news. Albeit Trump and the GOP never will debate the WP with hard facts, just Fake News rhetoric. Just last week I was watching CNBC after Amazon's earnings release and a couple analysts were questioning how long Bezos could own the WP before shareholders forced him to sell it because it could impact their shareholder value in Amazon stock with Trump/GOP targeting Amazon in the media/social networks. See links below to validate my #4 statement.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/31/analyst-owning-washington-post-makes-bezos-target-of-trump.html
https://wwd.com/business-news/media/tweet-trumps-war-with-amazon-and-jeff-bezos-1202763344/
A. Montgomery County MD has offered the largest announced incentive package to attract HQ2 - $8.5 Billion. Honestly this is a disgusting amount to offer a company as profitable as Amazon. With that said, I believe Amazon signed confidentiality agreements with all finalist cities and asked each City/State to keep all details about their State's RFP response/incentives private - so why the hell would MD publicly announce their incentive package unless it is a Hail Mary. Note the CoA and State of GA have not publicly announced our incentive package. Montgomery County is proposing the now closed White Flint Mall for the their state's HQ2 site. Attached below is a Google Map view of the site. To give Atlanta locals some perspective White Flint Mall is equivalent to North Point Mall in Alpharetta. Again, does this look like an advanced urban campus?
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-amazon-package-passed-20180404-story.html
https://www.wbaltv.com/article/gov-larry-hogan-announces-amazon-hq2-incentive-legislation/15838759
https://www.google.com/maps/place/White+...9df47c08ab2!8m2!3d39.041815!4d-77.108056
B. I grew up in Williamsburg, VA and lived in Arlington, VA 10 years after college so I know the DC area. The whole DC region is a very anti-growth, NIMBY region. Most importantly DC proper and MD and VA cities close to the capital have height restrictions. People usually point to this height restriction governing building height cannot exceed the height of the Washington Monument. That is true to some extent, but the main reason is Ronald Reagan Airport is sandwiched between DC and Arlington, VA. Therefore the core urban areas in DC, MD and VA have to expand out, where most cities can add density by going up (skyscrapers). This makes the DC Metro unable to add growth with the "ease" other metros can. This is also why the DC Metro is so damn expensive.
https://dc.curbed.com/2015/7/14/9940814/height-act-washington-dc-matthew-yglesias
C. When I lived in Arlington/VA there were countless projects citizens and governments rejected or significantly scaled back because of building height, population growth, traffic, QoL and Col. The most notable was when NOVA rejected a Disney Theme park.
https://www.nytimes.com/1994/09/29/us/disney-drops-plan-for-history-theme-park-in-virginia.html
D. If Amazon selects a city in the DC Metro, only one city/state will benefit and the rest of the region will carry the burden/cost due to increased population growth, need for more schools, roads and mass transit expansion. For example, if Amazon chooses Arlington, VA, Arlington County VA and the State of VA will reap the financial rewards of having the HQ domiciled in their region. Given there is absolutely no way Amazon's 50K employees could possibly live in Arlington, VA, most employees could/will chose to live in DC and MD. The negative financial impact on DC and MD in my scenario would be significant with a limited positive upside. This is the main reason the DC Metro has been challenged to attract HQ relocations from non-government related businesses. Additionally DC, MD and VA do limited regional planning because each state is competing for the same businesses and each desire to pay less of the region's infrastructure cost. DC lost the bid to host the Olympics recently because of this issue.
Net, net - DC has a great education system, immense talent and expansive mass transit system, albeit old and with limited service in the suburbs. In conclusion I believe the negative points I outlined above vastly outweigh the region's strengths. Hopefully this lengthy post dispels anyone's belief I have a bias against the DC Metro solely because I am pro-Atlanta and see that my posts are fact based - unless stated otherwise.
Prev
Linear Mode
