YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[mezzanine]

I know IAD is officially on the list already, but it's a few weekly flights in the summer for cruise ship passengers IIRC. Regular year-round flights to IAD would really be a boost to YVR for transit hub aspirations and as a regular, important connection. based on the statscan report, 2016 O+D is larger than AUS and in the realm of SAN.

Originally Posted by nname

If AC wants to build a hub in YVR like they did in YYZ, then those short-hual flights like Spokane, or maybe even Oakland, Ontario, Santa Ana, Eugene, Boise would make sense (similar to Harrisburg, Savanna, Rochester, etc from YYZ). But the thing is... The TPAC offering at YVR is much much less than the wide range TATL flights in YYZ.

also consider places that already have service from other carriers, but would enhance/strengthen the AC hub. For instance, SLC has DL/WS service to YVR, but AC service would really synergize with their AC's TPAC hub. (skyteam transfers may be comparable, but can't say for sure.)

How is AC's YVR/DFW service doing?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

I know IAD is officially on the list already, but it's a few weekly flights in the summer for cruise ship passengers IIRC. Regular year-round flights to IAD would really be a boost to YVR for transit hub aspirations and as a regular, important connection. based on the statscan report, 2016 O+D is larger than AUS and in the realm of SAN.

also consider places that already have service from other carriers, but would enhance/strengthen the AC hub. For instance, SLC has DL/WS service to YVR, but AC service would really synergize with their AC's TPAC hub. (skyteam transfers may be comparable, but can't say for sure.)

How is AC's YVR/DFW service doing?

Just remember for new transborder routes a large enough O&D with decent yields and/or the ability to feed onward connections (on either end or both ends) are vital to making a new route viable. Washington/Baltimore is miles ahead in O&D than AUS or SLC. There is adequate O&D to SLC but not high enough as a stand-alone. SLC is served by DL because DL has a decently sized hub there.
AUS still a long shot. Give it a few more years maybe. Also having the right aircraft with the right economics is also a factor.
MIA/FLL certainly on the cusp of making the route work and possibly PHL.

Don’t forget people, Toronto is just that much larger of a market with much larger business activity than Vancouver.

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

There is adequate O&D to SLC but not high enough as a stand-alone. SLC is served by DL because DL has a decently sized hub there.

I suspect there are a lot of economics and incentives that i'm unaware of that makes this so, but those statements conflict. Why is the same O+D suitable for DL's 2 flights from YVR to SLC and not for AC?

that being said, AC had to drop their YYZ/SLC flight a while ago.

[nname]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

How is AC's YVR/DFW service doing?

LF for the last 12 months... and since I got the data loaded, I throw in a few other routes for comparison

	DFW	BOS	MCO	DEN	SAN	SJC
17/02	58.9%				93.0%	77.3%
17/03	71.9%				95.4%	73.9%
17/04	55.5%				91.3%	89.8%
17/05	65.8%			63.2%	87.2%	72.0%
17/06	85.1%			75.1%	88.6%	84.7%
17/07	83.7%	80.7%		79.6%	90.8%	87.0%
17/08	79.8%	78.9%		82.3%	91.2%	85.9%
17/09	75.8%	88.9%		76.2%	88.9%	74.8%
17/10	65.0%	84.2%		68.5%	83.7%	71.1%
17/11	80.7%			76.3%	87.8%	76.8%
17/12	79.7%		77.6%	73.7%	84.3%	73.4%
18/01	78.0%		62.7%	78.0%	86.6%	69.8%

And since YYZ-SLC was mentioned, there's the LF before it was cancelled

17/02	60.0%
17/03	74.5%
17/04	62.2%
17/05	66.3%
17/06	83.6%
17/07	85.7%
17/08	86.4%
17/09	79.7%
17/10	72.6%

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

I suspect there are a lot of economics and incentives that i'm unaware of that makes this so, but those statements conflict. Why is the same O+D suitable for DL's 2 flights from YVR to SLC and not for AC?

that being said, AC had to drop their YYZ/SLC flight a while ago.

DL’s hub in SLC has a vast array of destinations that the YVR flights can feed on to. From SLC to YVR there are far fewer options for SLC originating passengers.
So, again, the YVR-SLC flights are there only because of DL’s hub. If DL didn’t have a hub there there wouldn’t be any direct flights to SLC. The O&D wouldn’t be enough to sustain probably even a single daily CR9.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Gordon

China Canada Bi-lateral

How much space is there for Canadian airlines to add flights to china?

Plenty, but AC is on record as saying they want more slots at PEK and PVG. They are not interested in serving secondary Chinese cities.

Originally Posted by nname

Hmm... Tofino Long Beach and Tofino Harbour is counted as different destination?

All airports do this. LGW, LHR are counted as different destinations. Same with CDG or ORY. Although I admit, Splitting Tofino is pretty silly.....

Airport authorities use silly marketing tactics. That's just the way it is. And it's not just limited to YVR.

Originally Posted by nname

And since YYZ-SLC was mentioned, there's the LF before it was cancelled

17/02	60.0%
17/03	74.5%
17/04	62.2%
17/05	66.3%
17/06	83.6%
17/07	85.7%
17/08	86.4%
17/09	79.7%
17/10	72.6%

This proves two things. Anyone can fill a plane to pretty much anywhere in peak summer out of Canada. The shoulder seasons and winter is where the challenge is at. Mind you, those are still decent load factors even during the shoulder season.
Second, and probably more importantly, decent load factors dont mean the airline is making money on the route. It's been said numerous times.

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

DL’s hub in SLC has a vast array of destinations that the YVR flights can feed on to. From SLC to YVR there are far fewer options for SLC originating passengers.
So, again, the YVR-SLC flights are there only because of DL’s hub. If DL didn’t have a hub there there wouldn’t be any direct flights to SLC. The O&D wouldn’t be enough to sustain probably even a single daily CR9.

I think there's more nuance though, and more potential for YVR. SLC is more of a hub for USA/transborder and really limited with intl. a dedicated AC feed to itl flights IMO may be profitable.

I wonder how AC's flight to DFW will do in the long-term, as much it would be interesting to see what WS does with its 787 service wrt YVR versus YYC.

So is SLC destined to be another Cincinnati, continually cut and reduced to a shadow of its former self? Probably not. But is it destined to grow in Delta’s network? Also a probable no.

Over the past decade, the traffic has fluctuated in a rather narrow band and that is likely to continue—with a gradual upward slope. There are a number of factors that lead to this conclusion.

•SLC has an excellent location and serves well as a collection and distribution point for communities in the intermountain West, providing an alternative to Denver, which is larger and a battleground between United, Southwest and Frontier.

•Unlike Cincinnati (or Memphis), SLC is far from any alternative connecting hub in the Delta network, again making the location an advantage.

•Southwest has a very strong presence at both Las Vegas and Phoenix (with US Airways), making those points dubious hubs for any other legacy carrier. But WN does not have the local service, small-aircraft capabilities that are required for small cities like Billings, MT or Fargo, ND. The feed traffic that Delta enjoys at SLC is probably dependable and may even grow—with little or no competition.

•Delta’s major hubs are built around a complex domestic/international cross-feed. The absence of that at SLC will continue to limit the hub’s expansion. While individual international flights may work, there is neither the synergy nor the customer base to support an extensive international network.

•With a 75% share, most frequent travelers are probably Delta/SkyTeam devotees, and when traveling over long distances most will likely opt for a Delta connection over one of its other, frequently-linked, hubs. Another international hub is unnecessary.

https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/salt-lake-city-a-vulnerable-hub-57213

[stiffdeadman]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

I think there's more nuance though, and more potential for YVR. SLC is more of a hub for USA/transborder and really limited with intl. a dedicated AC feed to itl flights IMO may be profitable.

I wonder how AC's flight to DFW will do in the long-term, as much it would be interesting to see what WS does with its 787 service wrt YVR versus YYC.



https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/salt-lake-city-a-vulnerable-hub-57213

salt lake city is rebuilding the whole airport into a new state of the art facility. the existing airport buildings (terminal, parking, etc.) will all be gone by 2024, replaced with a massive new terminal and satellite concourse. i'm sure delta was heavily involved and won't be going anywhere.

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by stiffdeadman

salt lake city is rebuilding the whole airport into a new state of the art facility. the existing airport buildings (terminal, parking, etc.) will all be gone by 2024, replaced with a massive new terminal and satellite concourse. i'm sure delta was heavily involved and won't be going anywhere.

my CAPA link is from 2011, but I still think AC to SLC has viability. DEN is a similarly located airport but the only TPAC service IIRC is to Tokyo. And this is a with a large, efficient and mature airport with a *A hub to boot.

My point is TPAC from SLC even with Midwest feed may have difficulty that YVR can serve especially while SLC is catching up.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

DL’s hub in SLC has a vast array of destinations that the YVR flights can feed on to. From SLC to YVR there are far fewer options for SLC originating passengers.
So, again, the YVR-SLC flights are there only because of DL’s hub. If DL didn’t have a hub there there wouldn’t be any direct flights to SLC. The O&D wouldn’t be enough to sustain probably even a single daily CR9.

I can definitely see SLC possible with a daily CR9, as it seems like AC have a much lower performance target for Express route than mainline or Rouge. However, based on the LF data, if there is an extra plane lying around, AC would probably better off adding a summer 4th daily to SAN or even SJC, rather than use it on SLC...

Maybe that could happen in 2020, as it seems like the SJC and SAN are good candidate for conversion to mainline CS3 A220 route.

Also, it's not surprising to the huge increase in Hawaii service... as AC's flight currently have high-80 to low-90% LF to HNL and OGG year-round.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

my CAPA link is from 2011, but I still think AC to SLC has viability. DEN is a similarly located airport but the only TPAC service IIRC is to Tokyo. And this is a with a large, efficient and mature airport with a *A hub to boot.

My point is TPAC from SLC even with Midwest feed may have difficulty that YVR can serve especially while SLC is catching up.

DEN is a much larger city and a much larger O&D Market from YVR and both are Star Alliance hubs.

Do you know how large the SLC - Asia market is?

DL would easily feed the SLC traffic through its SEA hub (both DL hubs). DL is using SEA as its trans pac hub plus DL has plenty of Asian flights from its other hubs in LAX, MSP, DTW and ATL. DL’s hub at SLC is primarily a domestic transfer hub with very limited Canadian flights.

Also YYZ-SLC also a larger O&D Market

In any event I disagree. I don’t think YVR-SLC would be on AC’s to do list for the many reasons stated above.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

DEN is a much larger city and a much larger O&D Market from YVR and both are Star Alliance hubs.

Do you know how large the SLC - Asia market is?

SLC is the primary entry and exit port for the Yellowstone tour.

The other options are LAS, LAX, and to much a lesser degree, SFO, DEN, SEA, YVR, and YYC, but theses will require a long long bus ride.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

SLC is the primary entry and exit port for the Yellowstone tour.

The other options are LAS, LAX, and to much a lesser degree, SFO, DEN, SEA, YVR, and YYC, but theses will require a long long bus ride.

Yes and like most tourist destinations these would be incorporated into other tours and destinations. I suppose some would travel half way around the world just to see Yellowstone. Probably a reason why DL dropped SLC-NRT.

One can also easily connect to Jackson or West Yellowstone from SFO or SEA.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Yes and like most tourist destinations these would be incorporated into other tours and destinations. I suppose some would travel half way around the world just to see Yellowstone. Probably a reason why DL dropped SLC-NRT.

One can also easily connect to Jackson or West Yellowstone from SFO or SEA.

Except, none of those tour starts in those smaller airport. It's just not cost effective to have a base there. The nearest major city is SLC.

You know those Chinese or Korean tour package... trying to cram as many destinations into as few days and as cheap as possible. Connection? That's just a waste of time. SLC is just too hard to get to if you're a Star Alliance frequent flyer, and if you want to do Canadian Rockies and Yellowstone in a single trip, there's no better choice than a 4-days bus ride through pretty much nothing...

Maybe DL should've run SLC-ICN and SLC-PEK instead

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Except, none of those tour starts in those smaller airport. It's just not cost effective to have a base there. The nearest major city is SLC.

You know those Chinese or Korean tour package... trying to cram as many destinations into as few days and as cheap as possible. Connection? That's just a waste of time. SLC is just too hard to get to if you're a Star Alliance frequent flyer, and if you want to do Canadian Rockies and Yellowstone in a single trip, there's no better choice than a 4-days bus ride through pretty much nothing...

Maybe DL should've run SLC-ICN and SLC-PEK instead

Without beating this to death... again, probably why there aren’t any direct flights from SLC to anywhere in Asia.. not even seasonal.

We will have to agree to disagree... I don’t see a viable market for AC to add YVR-SLC, you do and that’s cool.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Without beating this to death... again, probably why there aren’t any direct flights from SLC to anywhere in Asia.. not even seasonal.

We will have to agree to disagree... I don’t see a viable market for AC to add YVR-SLC, you do and that’s cool.

I guess we all agree on AC not going to start it in the near future. Just that I feel it's on AC's list, but it's nowhere near the top, and there's a chance of AC would start it after some of the existing CR9 routes such as SAN, SJC, ORD, PHX got converted to mainline A220... and you feel there are better place to put those CR9 on

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

DEN is a much larger city and a much larger O&D Market from YVR and both are Star Alliance hubs.

Do you know how large the SLC - Asia market is?

DL would easily feed the SLC traffic through its SEA hub (both DL hubs). DL is using SEA as its trans pac hub plus DL has plenty of Asian flights from its other hubs in LAX, MSP, DTW and ATL. DL’s hub at SLC is primarily a domestic transfer hub with very limited Canadian flights.

Also YYZ-SLC also a larger O&D Market

In any event I disagree. I don’t think YVR-SLC would be on AC’s to do list for the many reasons stated above.

That's the funny thing about route development - there is a lot at play to make a route sustainable.

YVR-ANC is a third less of the O+D of SLC according to the statscan 2016 report with no further AC connections at ANC AFAIK, but AC has a nonstop route, year round IIRC.

[nname]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

That's the funny thing about route development - there is a lot at play to make a route sustainable.

YVR-ANC is a third less of the O+D of SLC according to the statscan 2016 report with no further AC connections at ANC AFAIK, but AC has a nonstop route, year round IIRC.

Summer seasonal. That route is great for those 1-way Alaska cruise

LF for the route:

17/05	71.6%
17/06	85.0%
17/07	87.6%
17/08	88.5%
17/09	80.4%

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by nname

Summer seasonal. That route is great for those 1-way Alaska cruise

[facepalm]

regardless, IMO AC SLC/YVR has more viability, but time will tell..

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by nname

Summer seasonal. That route is great for those 1-way Alaska cruise

LF for the route:

17/05	71.6%
17/06	85.0%
17/07	87.6%
17/08	88.5%
17/09	80.4%

That’s a great example of route catering to a very specific market - the one way cruise market. These flights would be EMPTY without the one-way Alaska cruises. Good to see the high LFs too.
Even without DL on SLC-YVR I doubt it’s on AC’s radar. AC would also be competing against a strong DL frequent flyer base. And the fact that DL reduces both YVR and YYC to only once daily CR9/E75 over winter is another indication of its very limited year round viability. Load factors would most likely be well under 50% if AC attempted the route.