ATLANTA | Development Thread VI

[3yonce]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

Allen Plaza is Back Baby!!!

With much astonishment I noticed 50 Allen Plaza showed up yesterday on Loopnet. I monitor this site weekly and I have not seen this project in years. Loopnet is showing the project was updated 7/11/2018, will have 34 Floors, 871K sqft and will be built by 2020.

As a rule, Loopnet is a good source to see new projects being marketed, but is not necessarily the best source to verify the validity if a project is real or is starting in the near term. So bear with me because I did some research and this one definitely has some teeth.

http://www.loopnet.com/Listing/50-Ivan-Allen-Blvd-NE-Atlanta-GA/4104623/

As many of you remember, Barry Real Estate Companies first proposed 50 Allen Plaza back in 2004 and as we know the economy shit the bed and in 2012 the site was auctioned off and Regent Partners purchased it for $4.5 million. Regent Partners is a very prolific Atlanta developer whose experience includes The Sovereign building in Buckhead.

The ABC reported in May Drapac Capital Partners had put the site under contract and the deal closed last month which is why we are now seeing 50 Allen Plaza back on Loopent. It gets better...much better

Link to ABC article on Drapac purchase of Allen Plaza:
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/s...1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-b-1



So who is Drapac Capital Partners? (from their website):
http://www.drapaccapital.com/

At Drapac, we identify opportunities through unorthodox means and focus on the crucial balance between risk management and performance. We have consistently outperformed the broader market and achieved a premium track record of returns across multiple asset classes. With a proven growth trajectory, including expansion into the U.S. in 2011, our current portfolio includes over 12,000 acres of land across multiple markets, with a gross development pipeline of over U.S. $8 billion.

How is Drapac Capital Partners different than every other Developer?

Awwwwwwww.....these mofo's have money! Not Kim Kardashian money, we are talking Kylie Jenner MONEY. As of today Drapac Capital Partners has amassed the following properties in Atlanta:

• Around 4,166 acres across 28 projects in mostly the Southeastern suburbs of Atlanta (Covington,GA)

In town Drapac Capital Partners has acquired the following properties:

• 129 North Ave.
• 50 Ivan Allen Blvd.
• 323 Spring St.
• 245 Auburn Ave.
• 505 Courtland St

Drapac Capital Partners parcels owned - Allen Plaza area

So is 50 Allen Plaza resurrected from the dead? It sure as hell looks like it and judging from Drapac Capital Partners purchases of properties in the area, these folks are not messing around!

This was one of my favorite projects from the last cycle, so I'm excited to see it possibly coming back. Those other sites Drapac picked up are all ripe for infill, so I'm excited to see what they'll bring over the next few years.

[Atlanta3000]

50 Allen Plaza

I have already had 4 journalists reach out to me on Twitter and 1 confirmed something is definitely in play, but could not elaborate.

[Jacobguy]

Compared to the original, is it the same, less, or more square footage than the original plans?

[jayden]

Thanks for those renderings above guys.
I assumed it probably changed a bit since it's been like 12 years since it was first introduced. So long as we can get something with the same height, it'll be a great addition to the downtown skyline.


Any news on the 14th and spring project? The one where it's several buildings are 14 stories or something. Sorry, forgot the specifics.

[bryantm3]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

That 2020 date has me concerned.

Hopefully, there won't be a recession by then that kills the project (again).

i don't mean to be debbie downer but at this point in the cycle i wouldn't bet on anything that isn't breaking ground before next year. the yield curve is about to invert and those in charge of the government seem to be doing everything in their power to ensure that the next crash is the *last* crash. idk. i have felt like this for a while. our city is going to continue to exist, but i don't think i am confident about what (or whose) country we are going to find ourselves a part of 10 years from now. to me, trying to use the growth formulas and so on to predict future growth seems futile. all of that depends on everything staying on the same trajectory as it is now.

does anyone else on here feel like things are about to change big time? or am i being overly paranoid?

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by bryantm3

i don't mean to be debbie downer but at this point in the cycle i wouldn't bet on anything that isn't breaking ground before next year. the yield curve is about to invert and those in charge of the government seem to be doing everything in their power to ensure that the next crash is the *last* crash. idk. i have felt like this for a while. our city is going to continue to exist, but i don't think i am confident about what (or whose) country we are going to find ourselves a part of 10 years from now. to me, trying to use the growth formulas and so on to predict future growth seems futile. all of that depends on everything staying on the same trajectory as it is now.

does anyone else on here feel like things are about to change big time? or am i being overly paranoid?

Absent a major geopolitical disaster, the US is at least 18 -24 months out before we need to be concerned about a downturn. The last Great Recession was some scary shit, but keep in mind the US has generally gone into a recession every 7 - 10 years. In a normal recession, companies still hire employees and developers still build offices and housing.

Chin up bryantm3, Atlanta will be alright!

[Atlanta3000]

MARTA North Ave Station Transit Oriented Development

MARTA's North Ave Station is adjacent to the Midtown AT&T Midtown building (rumored HQ2 site). Interestingly MARTA released these details last November for a TOD at this station. Does anyone have any details if any developers made any offers?

https://www.itsmarta.com/uploadedFiles/M...%20Rev%202017-11-03%20North%20Avenue.pdf

[Atlanta3000]

North & Line and The Mill Marketplace

North & Line



The Mill Marketplace

The Mill will be a retail asset developed in partnership with Southeast Capital Companies and Coro Realty Advisors, LLC. The development will consist of renovating and re-purposing an existing historic building – The Excelsior Mill – immediately adjacent to the new North & Line apartments. This historically-designated structure of approximately 30,000 sf is also conveniently situated in the Old Fourth Ward district, just across the street from the city’s recently dedicated and new urban gem – the Old Fourth Ward Park. Originally built in 1901 as the Dupre Excelsior Mill, the structure has housed many enterprising uses though-out its history, with the most recent being a music venue. The original structure was designated as a Landmark Building or Site (LBS) in 2006.

[tdawg]

^^^ The Mill looks amazing! Great adaptive reuse.

[briantech]

Originally Posted by bryantm3

i don't mean to be debbie downer but at this point in the cycle i wouldn't bet on anything that isn't breaking ground before next year. the yield curve is about to invert and those in charge of the government seem to be doing everything in their power to ensure that the next crash is the *last* crash. idk. i have felt like this for a while. our city is going to continue to exist, but i don't think i am confident about what (or whose) country we are going to find ourselves a part of 10 years from now. to me, trying to use the growth formulas and so on to predict future growth seems futile. all of that depends on everything staying on the same trajectory as it is now.

does anyone else on here feel like things are about to change big time? or am i being overly paranoid?

I think you're being paranoid, yes. Unemployment is at an all time low. Consumer spending is up. Atlanta continues to be an attractive moving destination with low cost of living, few natural disasters, and lots of space. Our tech industry here is booming. Maybe we'll get Amazon HQ2, probably we won't, but being in consideration this late in the game says volumes about the desirability of the city to support big companies bringing lots of jobs.

The biggest worry I have is that wage growth isn't keeping up with inflation, but with unemployment so low that seems like it has to give at some point. That and healthcare costs and student loan debt are slow drags on the economy, but again neither are a "bubble" that can burst like 2007.

Obviously a correction is coming - it can't all go up forever - but IMO the 24 month outlook still looks very solid.

[NickH]

Originally Posted by briantech

I think you're being paranoid, yes. Unemployment is at an all time low. Consumer spending is up. Atlanta continues to be an attractive moving destination with low cost of living, few natural disasters, and lots of space. Our tech industry here is booming. Maybe we'll get Amazon HQ2, probably we won't, but being in consideration this late in the game says volumes about the desirability of the city to support big companies bringing lots of jobs.

The biggest worry I have is that wage growth isn't keeping up with inflation, but with unemployment so low that seems like it has to give at some point. That and healthcare costs and student loan debt are slow drags on the economy, but again neither are a "bubble" that can burst like 2007.

Obviously a correction is coming - it can't all go up forever - but IMO the 24 month outlook still looks very solid.

Smart insight. I don't know if wage growth will every trend like it has in the past based on technology disrupters and the global economy ever growing. I see two to three more years of slow controlled growth.

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by bryantm3

i don't mean to be debbie downer but at this point in the cycle i wouldn't bet on anything that isn't breaking ground before next year. the yield curve is about to invert and those in charge of the government seem to be doing everything in their power to ensure that the next crash is the *last* crash. idk. i have felt like this for a while. our city is going to continue to exist, but i don't think i am confident about what (or whose) country we are going to find ourselves a part of 10 years from now. to me, trying to use the growth formulas and so on to predict future growth seems futile. all of that depends on everything staying on the same trajectory as it is now.

does anyone else on here feel like things are about to change big time? or am i being overly paranoid?

I completely agree.

One good sign of a recession is when you start to see completely speculative projects that seem way too massive pop out of nowhere. That's what happened before the Great Recession and before the Great Depression.

And that's on top of construction costs being at historic highs and financing costs rapidly rising (thanks to the FED normalizing interest rates and Trump's hardlie on trade/immigration), putting more pressure on developers who are trying to make a profit on their projects.

I know of a major project in Nashville (two 40-story towers) that, just a year ago, was projected to cost $320 million. It was originally going to be two 40-story towers. Now, the project has not only been downgraded to one 40-story tower, but the costs have increased by $75+ million.

[sbrptree]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

I completely agree.

One good sign of a recession is when you start to see completely speculative projects that seem way too massive pop out of nowhere. That's what happened before the Great Recession and before the Great Depression.

And that's on top of constructiom costs being at historic highs and financing costs rapidly rising (thanks to the FED normalizing interest rates and Trump's hardlime on trade/immigration), putting more pressure on developers who are trying to make a profit on their projects.

I know of a major project in Nashville (two 40-story towers) that, just a year ago, was projected to cost $320 million. It was originally going to be two 40-story towers. Now, the project has not only been downgraded to one 40-story tower, but the costs have increased by $75+ million.

Construction costs are very high. Labor is tight everywhere. Folks in banking (who lend commercially) have been slowing for a while. To me...the downturn may be closer to 12 months if not sooner. The tariff BS is not helping.

On a semi-related note...seems like apartment leasing has definitely leveled (i.e. Midtown) where there are many a large sign stating "leasing now"....unheard of just one or two years ago. With CODA and Anthem coming (i.e. they are under construction) some of that will be absorbed...but I am not as confident as some on here that all of these other proposals will happen (unless an Amazon, Google etc) lands.

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

I completely agree.

One good sign of a recession is when you start to see completely speculative projects that seem way too massive pop out of nowhere. That's what happened before the Great Recession and before the Great Depression.

And that's on top of constructiom costs being at historic highs and financing costs rapidly rising (thanks to the FED normalizing interest rates and Trump's hardlime on trade/immigration), putting more pressure on developers who are trying to make a profit on their projects.

I know of a major project in Nashville (two 40-story towers) that, just a year ago, was projected to cost $320 million. It was originally going to be two 40-story towers. Now, the project has not only been downgraded to one 40-story tower, but the costs have increased by $75+ million.

Actually the best signal of a Recession is a drop in consumer spending. In 2017, U.S. GDP was 70 percent personal consumption, 17 percent business investment, 17 percent government spending, and negative 4 percent net exports.

One area that could quicken a potential downtown is a spike in commodity prices (oil, metal, food - etc.) which would directly impact consumer spending. Additionally Trump's tariffs could very well be the impetuous to a Recession. The next election can not come quick enough......!

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by sbrptree

Construction costs are very high. Labor is tight everywhere. Folks in banking (who lend commercially) have been slowing for a while. To me...the downturn may be closer to 12 months if not sooner. The tariff BS is not helping.

On a semi-related note...seems like apartment leasing has definitely leveled (i.e. Midtown) where there are many a large sign stating "leasing now"....unheard of just one or two years ago. With CODA and Anthem coming (i.e. they are under construction) some of that will be absorbed...but I am not as confident as some on here that all of these other proposals will happen (unless an Amazon, Google etc) lands.

Indeed, an economic shot in the arm equivalent to Amazon HQ2, one that generates enough real demand for these speculative projects, would definitely make a difference.

It's how Seattle weathered the last recession better than many places.

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by sbrptree

Construction costs are very high. Labor is tight everywhere. Folks in banking (who lend commercially) have been slowing for a while. To me...the downturn may be closer to 12 months if not sooner. The tariff BS is not helping.

On a semi-related note...seems like apartment leasing has definitely leveled (i.e. Midtown) where there are many a large sign stating "leasing now"....unheard of just one or two years ago. With CODA and Anthem coming (i.e. they are under construction) some of that will be absorbed...but I am not as confident as some on here that all of these other proposals will happen (unless an Amazon, Google etc) lands.

Totally agree on the tariffs.

Concerning Midtown apartments, I think the market is balanced. On average it takes 12+ months from the time an apartment starts leasing until full lease up. Currently the market is seeing apartments offering 1 - 2 months free rent on 13 to 14 month leases. Once you see apartment complexes actually cutting monthly rent, you will then know the market is saturated.

BTW - from 2015 to early 2017 Midtown added 12,000+ jobs.

https://www.midtownatl.com/about/news-ce...announced-for-midtown-atlanta-since-2015

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by Atlanta3000

Whitehall Mixed-Use - Downtown

I told you this was real!

Read the story at Bisnow:
https://www.bisnow.com/atlanta/news/affo...housing-development-in-generations-90754

[Ric 0_0]

Hmm... The design is meh. I am confused how there are planned to be 600+ parking spots and only 512 apartments.

[Atlanta3000]

Originally Posted by Ric 0_0

Hmm... The design is meh. I am confused how there are planned to be 600+ parking spots and only 512 apartments.

The developer is from CA and so is it's design - I dig it. I am sure the parking jihadist on here will be happy with 512 spaces.

[arctk2014]

Originally Posted by Ric 0_0

Hmm... The design is meh. I am confused how there are planned to be 600+ parking spots and only 512 apartments.

https://www.farrington.com/work-in-progress-whitehall/

Let's hope this "work in progress" gets a lot more thoughtful design put into it. Otherwise, it's pretty banal.