The Metro Vancouver Real Estate Thread

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

she's got a good case

No she doesnt. And someone should be investigating why a charity registered in Canada hired someone who not only isn’t a Canadian but isn’t a permanent resident.

[whatnext]

Vancouver June home sale slump to worst performance since 2012:

....Total residential sales volume last month fell to 2,425 transactions, down 37.7 per cent from 3,893 sales in June, 2017. Last month’s sales, the lowest for June since 2012, were 28.7 per cent under the 10-year average for the month, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

“Before prices fall, you tend to see sales activity fall first,” Mr. Davidoff said.

The benchmark price for all housing types in Greater Vancouver has flattened, slipping to $1,093,600 − down $400 from the previous month but up 9.5 per cent since June, 2017.

The benchmark price is an industry representation of the typical home sold in an area.

“Buyers are less active today. This is allowing the supply of homes for sale to accumulate to levels we haven’t seen in the last few years,” board president Phil Moore said in a statement.

The total number of listings soared to 11,947 last month, up 40.3 per cent from 8,515 in June, 2017...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-vancouver-housing-sales-drop-as-prices-flatline/

[whatnext]

Disgusting.

For six years, Richmond resident Laura Gillanders has helped her neighbour pick up letters scattered on their property and pushed their green bin off the sidewalk.

But she’s never been given a word of thanks. In fact, Gillanders has never even met the neighbour.

Half a block away from Alfred Dixon elementary, the house never has its lights on or windows open. Someone broke a window, and it took weeks until it was fixed, recalled Gillanders.

She assumes no one lives there, and the green bin Gillanders and her children have to step around on their way to school, constantly reminds her of that fact.

“The bin is always there on the gravel. The gardeners left it out on Wednesday for the city to pick up on Monday, and it was left there afterwards,” said Gillanders.

“I push it back every single time, because it’s in our way. There is no sidewalk. You have to either walk around on the wet grass in the morning or on the road, where a lot of cars are driving to and from the school.”..
http://www.vancourier.com/richmond-neighbour-fed-up-with-helping-out-ghost-house-1.23358924

[rofina]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Disgusting.

For six years, Richmond resident Laura Gillanders has helped her neighbour pick up letters scattered on their property and pushed their green bin off the sidewalk.

But she’s never been given a word of thanks. In fact, Gillanders has never even met the neighbour.

Half a block away from Alfred Dixon elementary, the house never has its lights on or windows open. Someone broke a window, and it took weeks until it was fixed, recalled Gillanders.

She assumes no one lives there, and the green bin Gillanders and her children have to step around on their way to school, constantly reminds her of that fact.

“The bin is always there on the gravel. The gardeners left it out on Wednesday for the city to pick up on Monday, and it was left there afterwards,” said Gillanders.

“I push it back every single time, because it’s in our way. There is no sidewalk. You have to either walk around on the wet grass in the morning or on the road, where a lot of cars are driving to and from the school.”..
http://www.vancourier.com/richmond-neighbour-fed-up-with-helping-out-ghost-house-1.23358924

Its staggering to think about how profoundly wasteful an empty home actually is. It comes with a lot of implications, far beyond the obvious of being an empty housing unit.

Beyond that, it also means a speculative buyer that's less price sensitive driving up cost of land.This in turn drives up rezoning costs.

Not to mention blight, school enrolment issues, transit.

It really is insanity.

[retro_orange]

Originally Posted by rofina

Its staggering to think about how profoundly wasteful an empty home actually is. It comes with a lot of implications, far beyond the obvious of being an empty housing unit.

Beyond that, it also means a speculative buyer that's less price sensitive driving up cost of land.This in turn drives up rezoning costs.

Not to mention blight, school enrolment issues, transit.

It really is insanity.

You could probably fit at least 8 1 bed suites in that house or 4 generous 2 bed suites being near the school, it's the size of a small apartment building. What a waste of space. Some of these monster houses going up in the suburbs should just be converted to apartment buildings.

[SpongeG]

‘Dirty money’ is destroying Vancouver’s civic fabric—and causing lasting damage

Opinion: Illicit funds, a useless city council and dysfunction ignored by the feds. Vancouver’s damage will take years to mend, writes Terry Glavin.
by Terry Glavin Jul 6, 2018

It’s the opposite of an American rust-belt wasteland of shuttered factories, and it’s nothing like one of those seething immigrant banlieues of Paris. But Metro Vancouver, in its way, with its Ferraris and Lamborghinis and its glorious backdrop of the mountains and the sea, is just as much a case study in the dark, broken and ugly side of globalization.

At least 20,000 Vancouver homes are empty, and nobody’s really sure who owns them. The rental vacancy rate is less than one per cent. Another 25,000 residences are occupied by homeowners whose declared taxable household incomes are mysteriously lower than the amount they’re shelling out in property taxes, utilities and mortgage payments. The Canada Revenue Agency estimates that about $170 million in taxes went uncollected from British Columbia real estate over the past three years.

Non-residents own roughly $45 billion worth of Metro Vancouver’s residential properties, and non-residents picked up one in five condominiums sold in Metro Vancouver over the past three years. That much is known. But Transparency International reckons about half of Vancouver’s west-side residences are owned by mystery trusts or shell companies.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation considers housing “affordable,” whether in rent or in a mortgage and related costs, if the outlay amounts to less than 30 per cent of household income. In Metro Vancouver, homeownership costs amount to 87.8 per cent of a typical household’s income, according to RBC economists Craig Wright and Robert Hogue. That’s the worst level ever recorded anywhere in Canada.

Vancouver has also become a major global hub for organized crime networks based in China. They are the primary source of the opioids that killed nearly 4,000 Canadians in overdoses last year. Vancouver is ground zero in the fentanyl crisis. Opioid overdose is now the top cause of death of Canadian men in their 30s.

“These are the wrenching human consequences, the growing pains if you will, of the great transformative forces of the past 40 years,” Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland said during a recent speech in Washington, D.C. In enumerating those human consequences, Freeland could have been describing Vancouver: “Median wages have been stagnating, jobs are becoming more precarious, pensions uncertain, housing, child care and education harder to afford.”


Part of Metro Vancouver’s problem, as Britain’s Tax Justice Network noted in its most recent Financial Secrecy Index, is that Canada’s financial system is even more opaque than Russia’s or China’s, and the federal government has largely ignored Vancouver’s dysfunctions. But B.C.’s provincial government has been worse.

...

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/dirty-mo...civic-fabric-and-causing-lasting-damage/

[rofina]

Originally Posted by retro_orange

You could probably fit at least 8 1 bed suites in that house or 4 generous 2 bed suites being near the school, it's the size of a small apartment building. What a waste of space. Some of these monster houses going up in the suburbs should just be converted to apartment buildings.

Great potential that these empty homes end up one day converted into multi-units, just the same way as many great homes on the West Side have been converted into apartment buildings.

In the meanwhile though you have an increasingly dense region with vacant houses on giant properties that are under utilised beyond belief.

[ssiguy]

Vancouver is heading into a major housing collapse as a near perfect storm has brewed. Interest rates are rising, CHMC is making it tougher to qualify for loans, the NDP are going after the money launderers, the 20% non-resident tax, Vancouver`s empty home tax, the special education tariff on ultra expensive homes, a change in elections funding so developers can no `determine` who they wish to run the city or province, Revenue Canada which is finally cracking down on tax evasion, a concerted effort to find out which INDIVIDUALS own which houses to make sure they are paying income tax, a regime in Beijing that is making it much more difficult {and dangerous} to funnel money out of the country, a slowing economy, a Metro that is now one of the slowest growing in population in the country, and a citizenry {including many home owners who have made a lot of money from their real estate} who are sick of the corruption, watching young people and their family or friends leaving, social division, empty neighbourhoods, and the unbridled destruction of heritage buildings.


BC`s addiction to a real estate addicted economy is about to get some very painful withdrawl symptons which will lead to much higher unemployment, insolvency, and thousands living in homes where their mortgages are higher than the value of the house. The job shedding has already started and BC`s unemployment is rising despite a shrinking participation rate and BC now has the largest net LOSS of jobs over the last 12 months than any other province including NFLD and most of this has taken place over the last 4 months as the real estate frenzy has come to a screeching halt.


Like all addiction, the withdrawl pains are going to be harsh and long but over the long-term it will be the best thing for the province, socially and economically.

[osirisboy]

Wow doom and gloom. Reminds me of the people saying those things during the Great Recession and look what happened. Nothing. I hope there is a cooling off of the market though

[rofina]

Originally Posted by osirisboy

Wow doom and gloom. Reminds me of the people saying those things during the Great Recession and look what happened. Nothing. I hope there is a cooling off of the market though

I think the Great Recession is partially responsible for the crisis were in.

It gave people the idea that this is a typical RE bubble - the reality is the problem is much more complicated and access to credit is only a portion of the problem.

I agree that there will be an unwinding in prices to some degree. This is already very obvious in the high end SFH market, big discounts.

The issue is prices have run away so far that it doesn't do much for anyone when a $3 million house sells for $2.1.

Likewise for condos, the construction code is so ridiculous, and construction costs are so high that even just building costs, assuming land is free, make it totally unaffordable to build decent size unit.

We are in a long term nightmare, no doubt.

[GMD]

Originally Posted by osirisboy

Wow doom and gloom. Reminds me of the people saying those things during the Great Recession and look what happened. Nothing. I hope there is a cooling off of the market though

The central bank dropped it's overnight rate from over 4.5% in Sept 07 to 0.24% in June 09 in response to the great recession. As of today, it is at 1.5%, so the potential to reduce rates is not what it once was.

Also, private debt was around 200% of GDP at the start of the great recession, now it is around 270% of GDP (U.S. peaked at about 210% before their great recession).

The only hope is that the central bank backs off further rate increases before they really blow everything up. Ironically, Trump's trade antics may help on this front.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by GMD

The only hope is that the central bank backs off further rate increases before they really blow everything up. Ironically, Trump's trade antics may help on this front.

Yes, I've felt like they've already acted too fast with rapid increases just recently. I don't think we've had time for those to work themselves through the economy. And with the loose cannon running the US, caution would be advised. The Liberals better hope we aren't in a recession when the 2019 election hits, or they'll get the boot (justified or not).

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by rofina

I think the Great Recession is partially responsible for the crisis were in.

It gave people the idea that this is a typical RE bubble - the reality is the problem is much more complicated and access to credit is only a portion of the problem.

I agree that there will be an unwinding in prices to some degree. This is already very obvious in the high end SFH market, big discounts.

The issue is prices have run away so far that it doesn't do much for anyone when a $3 million house sells for $2.1.

Likewise for condos, the construction code is so ridiculous, and construction costs are so high that even just building costs, assuming land is free, make it totally unaffordable to build decent size unit.

We are in a long term nightmare, no doubt.

What's a "decent sized" condo unit? We've had to scale condo units down in size to make their $ per sf less to reduce prices to better compete in the changing market.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

What's a "decent sized" condo unit? We've had to scale condo units down in size to make their $ per sf less to reduce prices to better compete in the changing market.

It seems that both land and labour prices need to fall. How much of a slowdown will cause that? Condo inventory is definitely starting to pile up in the areas I watch.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by osirisboy

Wow doom and gloom. Reminds me of the people saying those things during the Great Recession and look what happened. Nothing. I hope there is a cooling off of the market though

If it sounds like doom & gloom that`s because it is. Real estate/leasing and construction now makes up a truly staggering 27% of GDP. Most of the construction is real estate related but not all but at the same time this number does not include finance & insurance which in BC is heavily geared towards real estate.


To put that into perspective that is oil, gas, agriculture, forestry, fishing, retail, restaurants, arts, culture, accommodation, entertainment, mining, transportation, and warehousing...……….combined. If those sectors all saw 50% reductions in sales, people would rightfully panic and that is exactly what we are seeing in the real estate sector. This is how powerful this real estate bubble is going to pound the economy. As if that weren`t bad enough, imagine all those sectors combined having a 50% reduction in sales and what that will mean for provincial revenues.


This is the situation BC is currently looking at because Christy and the Liberals put all their economic growth eggs in one basket and now the eggs are starting to crack and it`s going to leave a hell of a mess.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

What's a "decent sized" condo unit? We've had to scale condo units down in size to make their $ per sf less to reduce prices to better compete in the changing market.

I understand the reasoning behind smaller units, I just don't think they are particularity usable at the sizes being built today.


Decent size? 2 bedrooms at over 1000 sq/ft are comfortable and actually make for a liveable space.

2 bedroom 2 bath cramped into 700 square feet? Not so much.

[s211]

Originally Posted by rofina

I understand the reasoning behind smaller units, I just don't think they are particularity usable at the sizes being built today.


Decent size? 2 bedrooms at over 1000 sq/ft are comfortable and actually make for a liveable space.

2 bedroom 2 bath cramped into 700 square feet? Not so much.

Indeed. I'm with you all the way on that. It's inhuman. Going back in the depths of history, there was a notable magazine (Economist? I don't exactly recall) in the 80s that wrote an extended article on Japanese "manshons", depicted as glorified rabbit hutches.

And as to comments out there that smaller units are less $psf, think again. It's quite the opposite.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by s211

Indeed. I'm with you all the way on that. It's inhuman. Going back in the depths of history, there was a notable magazine (Economist? I don't exactly recall) in the 80s that wrote an extended article on Japanese "manshons", depicted as glorified rabbit hutches.

And as to comments out there that smaller units are less $psf, think again. It's quite the opposite.

Would like to hear how that is so.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

Would like to hear how that is so.

Because you still have to include bathroom and kitchen and the utilities to go along with them.

The cost to build and extra bedroom is a fraction of that to build an extra bathroom.

You take those costs and divide by a smaller unit square footage and your PSF cost are higher on studios than 3 bedroom units.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by rofina

I understand the reasoning behind smaller units, I just don't think they are particularity usable at the sizes being built today.


Decent size? 2 bedrooms at over 1000 sq/ft are comfortable and actually make for a liveable space.

2 bedroom 2 bath cramped into 700 square feet? Not so much.

We are doing 2-beds for 1,000sf and 1-beds at 600sf. The thing is that everything has a price depending on location, views, materials, land costs. Want a central(ish) located 2-bed at 1,080 sf in a concrete building built in the last 3 years? You'll have to pay what the market demands... which is I think 1.4 million? Which economically on our end is relatively low.

Construction costs - and especially concrete - and land go up monthly and we have a hard time keeping up. The smaller the unit, the lower the price.