Quote:
Originally Posted by Acajack
They'd be more in favour of a major westward of BRT, which could serve more areas a lot quicker than 10 years from now
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Actually, the study and approval steps that are required before funding - notably the new BAPE requirements brought in in March - mean it's a 10-year project whether it's BRT, LRT, or anything more than paint, really. Heck, once SRB Pie-IX opens in 2022, it will have been over 13 years since the
Bureau de projet was first set up.
You're right that for current needs, BRT is the appropriate option. But as per the STO's own studies, BRT will start to reach the limits of its effective capacity in 15 years. There are lots of reasons, but the main ones are the density of surface cross-streets, the interprovincial crossing question, and Ottawa's insistence on reducing busses downtown.
The necessary studies, approvals, and construction will be about 10 years, so the system would only meet the needs of the west for 5 years before running into problems. And then we go the Ottawa route, waiting another 10 years to design and build a system with sufficient capacity, suffering through an under-built system in the meantime.
In this scenario, we pay:
-500 M for BRT
-3 B+ for LRT (because infrastructure inflation is higher than the general rate)
-plus however much for transition measures.
And in the end, we pay significantly more to end up with the same LRT system, plus an additional decade of insufficient infrastructure and disruption.
Of course, BRT could extend its capacity a great deal by tunnelling under intersections (à la Scott Street), building a new transit bridge and an underground bus depot in downtown Ottawa, but then the cost benefit vs LRT evaporates pretty quickly.
The fact of the matter is that although LRT might seem expensive, over 20-30 years, it's likely the least expensive and the least disruptive option.
I'm certain that the STO braintrust is skeptical. But judging from the great success of the projects they've pushed in the past, I think that may actually be a good thing