TCH east of Nipigon (La route transcanadienne à l'est de Nipigon)

[vid]

Originally Posted by F. Lionel

At first I agreed with you whole-heartedly Vid. But I've given this a fair bit of thought over the last week and I don't know if we can consider ALL of the projects in the north cancelled.

To be clear I think a lot of them are going to not come to a timely construction phase. Some of the more pie-in-the-sky projects are just gone now. Ford's brand of populism leaves me feeling ill at the best of times. But cancelling everything except the twinning in Kenora will ensure that a PC candidate doesn't get elected in this part of the province ever again. All it will take is a very bad accident along a previously scheduled twinning project and someone saying those people/families/children/hockey players died because the PCs took power. Very very bad PR.

A smarter move on Ford's part (or, rather, the PC party people making Ford's decisions or whatever) would be to send back everything to design... just delay everything for a year or so. Then come back with a big, in your face press event outlining all the immediate projects that were already shovel-ready. In the meantime make sure that the MB-Kenora project shows signs of life. Maybe do something unexpected in Sault Ste Marie that bleeds into Algoma-Manitoulin.

But in an effort to punish Michael Gravelle and the Liberals, punishing entire electoral districts will be negative in the extreme. Could you imagine what the response would be to the PCs if they managed to cut hallway medicine in every major hospital in the province EXCEPT Thunder Bay Regional? The hospital that invented code "Grid Lock"? That smacks of partisanship of the worst kind. I suspect the highway will be the same... things won't stop but they will become SOOO slow and it will be due to "Negotiations."

Rickford is just a loud mouthed tool... always has been.

Also... given the rather at-times fragile state of Gravelle's health: Should he resign before the end of the current term this would be a choice riding to pad the PC's majority... and one that the Liberals and NDP would fight tooth-and-nail for. It's a number of voters you don't want to completely alienate... even when your candidate came in third. Especially a district that has shown in the past that they can be easily bought with infrastructure projects.

They did it in 1995, but this is a different time. I don't seem them obviously punishing our hospital, but I think their plan will fail. This is the same party that gave us megahospitals in the first place.

I don't think these ridings would ever go PC though. Even with the popularity of Doug Ford across the province, the PCs barely managed to get 18% of the vote in TBSN, and Derek Parks had name recognition. It would take a near total collapse of either the NDP or Liberals (and we had a near total collapse of the Liberals) or a massive surge in the PCs (and we had that, too!) to see a PC candidate elected in Thunder Bay.

The only parts of TBSN where Conservatives get what can be called support are River Terrace and the Shuniah lakeshore. That's part of why they do so poorly: no one votes for them in that riding.

I would say, if a Thunder Bay riding turns blue, it will be Thunder Bay-Atikokan, not Superior North. The PCs did see a bigger surge here than the NDP, but their support bottomed out in 2014 with an average of 10% in both ridings that year, they're simply back up to normal levels (which apparently is ~15%) in this election.

[Dengler Avenue]

Right now, Highway 17's closed at Sturgeon Falls. (Thankfully there are detours in the area.) Highway 11's closed between Hearst and Kapuskasing. (I'm not too sure if there's detour for this one.)

I'm afraid the worst has happened.
(Update: For 11, for real: https://wawa-news.com/index.php/2018/06/17/hwy-11-closed/; for 17, "no words on injury yet": https://www.baytoday.ca/local-news/flames-visible-in-highway-17-collision-957112.)

MTO (especially those engineers) need to stop citing low AADT to justify not twinning the highway. One shoe-size does not fit all right? Then they should bring the twinning threshold down to 7K from the current 17K for the north where arterial roads are the only ones in most area. I was absolutely disappointed when even my friends in engineering are opposed to the idea of twinning TCH full length.

[Dengler Avenue]

Update: The collision on 17 at Sturgeon Falls proved fatal. https://www.northbaynipissing.com/news-s...ailer-catch-fire-in-north-bay-collision/

17 was closed at Klocks near Nipissing/Renfrew boundary at 6 pm and reopened at 2 am. The collision there was probably fatal too.

When will the province be ever held accountable for all the fatalities on TCH, dating back to 1957? I’m really just echoing the cry of the founders of the websites Improving Northwestern Ontario Highway 17 and Safe on 17.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Update: The collision on 17 at Sturgeon Falls proved fatal. https://www.northbaynipissing.com/news-s...ailer-catch-fire-in-north-bay-collision/

17 was closed at Klocks near Nipissing/Renfrew boundary at 6 pm and reopened at 2 am. The collision there was probably fatal too.

When will the province be ever held accountable for all the fatalities on TCH, dating back to 1957? I’m really just echoing the cry of the founders of the websites Improving Northwestern Ontario Highway 17 and Safe on 17.

When every government everywhere is held accountable for the poor driving skills of its population.

Driving on the road involves risk. The sheer ubiquity of driving means most people have forgotten that risk and blithely sail along, aiming a 3000-5000+ lb missile at 100+ km/h with minimal regard.

Why are these particular two lane highways so important, aside from being on the Trans-Canada? There are dozens (or hundreds) of two lane roads in the province, some of which have much worse fatality rates and much higher volume.

[Dengler Avenue]

Oh yea I mentioned the near-necessity of twinning (more like realigning with 4 lanes) Highway 9 between Orangeville and Newmarket in another thread, but so far no one has commented on it. There’s also the possible need to extend 404 to Beaverton to diminish demand on the 48 (if not 7 and 12 as well). These highways are in GTA too, making it even less acceptable to leave them as 2 lanes.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by wave46

When every government everywhere is held accountable for the poor driving skills of its population.

Driving on the road involves risk. The sheer ubiquity of driving means most people have forgotten that risk and blithely sail along, aiming a 3000-5000+ lb missile at 100+ km/h with minimal regard.

Why are these particular two lane highways so important, aside from being on the Trans-Canada? There are dozens (or hundreds) of two lane roads in the province, some of which have much worse fatality rates and much higher volume.

They connect thee eastern provinces to the western provinces.

[Dengler Avenue]

Also, under what circumstances will the theory that twinning highways induces demand hold?

For NB, it didn’t. But for NS, Copeid Pass saw an increase in traffic larger than predicted. I wonder if it’s because NS has Halifax (an important port) while NB doesn’t have much.

For Northern Ontario, which the theory hold? If yes, why? If no, why?

[sonysnob]

Induced demand is an urban (or suburban) phenomenon, not a rural one.

[Dengler Avenue]

Why did aadt increase when Copeid Pass (which was tolled, by the way) was opened to traffic then? The surrounding area’s largely rural (unless you count Truro).

Or does Ontario simply have too high a threshold for twinning (AADT needs to be 17K in Ontario to mandate twinning)? If you go to the maritimes, the threshold is half that. Heck AADT on NB HWY 2 doesn’t even pass 10K. QC A-85 probably doesn’t have that much traffic either. (Note: If terrain’s the issue, which is true for the north, then what about suburban highways like 3, 6, 9 and 12 all of which traverse very flat land?)

One shoe size doesn’t fit all. We need to start a non-partisan but still provincial “company” (like Metrolinx?) that earns money just to twin TCH. This way (if feasible) nobody can complain about the province “wasting money”.

Ps: Bear with me for making huge jumps in my arguments.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Also, under what circumstances will the theory that twinning highways induces demand hold?

For NB, it didn’t. But for NS, Copeid Pass saw an increase in traffic larger than predicted. I wonder if it’s because NS has Halifax (an important port) while NB doesn’t have much.

For Northern Ontario, which the theory hold? If yes, why? If no, why?

For most of 11 and 17, there is no induced demand. Closer to the major cities there might be.

The real issue is that truck traffic is so high on these roads.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Also, under what circumstances will the theory that twinning highways induces demand hold?

For Northern Ontario, which the theory hold? If yes, why? If no, why?

Induced demand is a product of the convenience provided by increased speed on transportation that allows people to live further from their place of employment, especially as increased land demand causes home prices to spike closer to major metropolitan areas.

Northern Ontario's economy isn't growing very much, especially compared to southern Ontario's. Most of the areas of northern Ontario are either stagnant or declining in population. Without an outside major inducement of employment demand in the area, which will tend to drive people to commute further for the reasons stated above, there will be minimal increase in AADT.

I do not believe that newly opened sections of highway 69/400 and highway 11 have seen much of an increase in AADT despite being twinned.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

For most of 11 and 17, there is no induced demand. Closer to the major cities there might be.

The real issue is that truck traffic is so high on these roads.

Exactly.

Sometimes I wonder if engineers who are opposed to twinning TCH even factor that into consideration.

What distinguishes TCH from all other highways (3 and 9, for example) is that you have cross-country truck traffic on it. The amount may not be big, but it certainly isn’t small either. It’s big enough to make passing difficult sometimes. (Ever since a near-death close call on the 3 when I tried to pass a truck + 2 cars that were going below the speed limit, I’ve become weary of passing a long line of traffic. As for that day, when I got back to Windsor to meet up with my friends, one of them described me as looking like a ghost.)

After all, for one, 17K is a high threshold for twinning, and truck AADT must be looked at as well. If the latter exceeds 3000, it’s time to twin because, effectively, no passing lane = no passing. People say “patience, patience”, but sorry I’ve got none when that big rig 3 cars ahead of me is doing 60 in a 90 zone.

As for the high cost, unfortunately that’s unavoidable. That’s why I suggested the non-partisan approach earlier. It’s time to also depoliticize infrastructure projects.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

As for the high cost, unfortunately that’s unavoidable. That’s why I suggested the non-partisan approach earlier. It’s time to also depoliticize infrastructure projects.

1. I'm not sure that's possible. The political process is how we decide what we value. Removing the ability for people to decide what's important for a bureaucratic approach can lead to undesirable outcomes. Based on numbers, highway 400 to Sudbury would likely not have been approved, while the effective political campaign resulted in approval.

2. If we do, then we need a funding formula. If it's population-based, then Northern Ontario gets crumbs (roughly the same as population as Mississauga). If we go by highway mileage, then Northern Ontario gets the bulk (>60% of mileage of provincial highways is in the north).

3. The MTO is spending $630 million in 2017-18 on highways in northern Ontario (out of a budget of $2.5 billion). That's about 25% of the MTO's budget - far out of proportion of the 5.8% share of population.

[sonysnob]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Why did aadt increase when Copeid Pass (which was tolled, by the way) was opened to traffic then? The surrounding area’s largely rural (unless you count Truro).

Colbequid Pass is a toll highway. Without knowing the exact specifics, my guess is that the toll highway attracted more vehicles from the old highway (Trunk 4) than were initially anticipated.

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Or does Ontario simply have too high a threshold for twinning (AADT needs to be 17K in Ontario to mandate twinning)? If you go to the maritimes, the threshold is half that. Heck AADT on NB HWY 2 doesn’t even pass 10K. QC A-85 probably doesn’t have that much traffic either. (Note: If terrain’s the issue, which is true for the north, then what about suburban highways like 3, 6, 9 and 12 all of which traverse very flat land?)

Twinning in northern Ontario is often done at much more modest traffic volumes than 17,000. Two lane highways are often quite busy in southern Ontario (see Highway 12/48, 26, 7 K/W-Guelph, sections of Hwy 10), but almost never that busy in northern Ontario. There is a huge discrepancy between when highways are twinned vs. traffic volumes.

Hwy 69/400, for example is being twinned with traffic volumes of just 6,000-7,500 for most of its length.

Hwy 11/17 between Thunder Bay to Nipigon is being twinned with traffic volumes as low as 4,500 vehicles on an average day.

Contrast that to Hwy 17 west of Sudbury which, in sections, carries over 9,000 vehicles on an average day.

Much more goes into twinning than just traffic volumes. Current highway geometry and land use also have impacts on when a highway is twinned. Twinning northeast of Thunder Bay is lower hanging fruit than it is west of Sudbury because of both the surrounding land use, and geology.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Or does Ontario simply have too high a threshold for twinning (AADT needs to be 17K in Ontario to mandate twinning)? If you go to the maritimes, the threshold is half that. Heck AADT on NB HWY 2 doesn’t even pass 10K.

The average AADT of the entirety of Route 2 in 2014 was 10K exactly. The highway through Moncton and Fredericton hits 20/25K+

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by JHikka

The average AADT of the entirety of Route 2 in 2014 was 10K exactly. The highway through Moncton and Fredericton hits 20/25K+

Interesting. Recently I was reading up a report on AADT of NB highways. Perhaps I forgot to check the date.

[Dengler Avenue]

In all seriousness, though, some of the places that 17 traverses that see high volume of traffic and high counts of fatality aren’t even that rugged, like near Sturgeon Falls and in Upper Ottawa Valley between Deep River and Arnprior.

Is property acquisition that difficult besides the associated costs?

[sonysnob]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

In all seriousness, though, some of the places that 17 traverses that see high volume of traffic and high counts of fatality aren’t even that rugged, like near Sturgeon Falls and in Upper Ottawa Valley between Deep River and Arnprior.

Is property acquisition that difficult besides the associated costs?

What do you base your fatality count statistics on? News articles aren't a reliable source because they aren't statistically significant.

For example, a news outlet is far more likely to report a collision on the 401 through Chatham because a smart news outlet knows that people in the area are upset about the 401 in the area and that will drive people to click/read/watch the news story.

A fatality on a road that is less "renowned" is less likely to get the same media attention because it is less likely to drive people to click/read/watch the news story.

News reports are terrible indicators of statistics.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

In all seriousness, though, some of the places that 17 traverses that see high volume of traffic and high counts of fatality aren’t even that rugged, like near Sturgeon Falls and in Upper Ottawa Valley between Deep River and Arnprior.

Is property acquisition that difficult besides the associated costs?

Aside from the Cobden area, I think the MTO already has sufficient right of way for twinning in the Ottawa Valley.

In the north, the highest volumes are between Sturgeon Falls and North Bay and just east of Sudbury. The terrain between Verner to about 15 km east of Sturgeon Falls is quite subdued, however the Sturgeon river is a notable obstacle and the escarpment between North Bay and Sturgeon Falls is notable one too.

Property acquisition is often a divisive process in local communities, especially if there's preexisting use, such as farming.

[sonysnob]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Exactly.

Sometimes I wonder if engineers who are opposed to twinning TCH even factor that into consideration.

What distinguishes TCH from all other highways (3 and 9, for example) is that you have cross-country truck traffic on it. The amount may not be big, but it certainly isn’t small either. It’s big enough to make passing difficult sometimes. (Ever since a near-death close call on the 3 when I tried to pass a truck + 2 cars that were going below the speed limit, I’ve become weary of passing a long line of traffic. As for that day, when I got back to Windsor to meet up with my friends, one of them described me as looking like a ghost.)

After all, for one, 17K is a high threshold for twinning, and truck AADT must be looked at as well. If the latter exceeds 3000, it’s time to twin because, effectively, no passing lane = no passing. People say “patience, patience”, but sorry I’ve got none when that big rig 3 cars ahead of me is doing 60 in a 90 zone.

As for the high cost, unfortunately that’s unavoidable. That’s why I suggested the non-partisan approach earlier. It’s time to also depoliticize infrastructure projects.

Traffic engineers are aware of the truck volume on any given highway in Ontario.

Believe it or not, the people who administer our provincial highway network are actually better informed about the network than even the people who read and post in this forum!