Queen's Park Politics

[vid]

"Ask your boss or doctor how to vote while I ask the employees and nurses how to run the province because the bosses and doctors in charge of things don't know what they're doing!" -Doug Ford

My boss said once that he doesn't vote. He did vote compass once, got the Green Party as a result, then laughed and said politics are stupid before getting back to work.

Although, say Doug Ford really is going to put his plan of "talking to the front lines" to find out what to do. It's going to take time to talk to them, it's going to take time to turn their input into a plan, it's going to take time to implement that plan, and along the way if kinks appear while executing that plan it's going to take time to fix them. He's counting on major economic growth but that's not going to be the reality on June 8th 2018, and likely won't be a significant factor on June 8th 2019 either, so it's going to be a while before the increased revenue from his economic growth (which has to increase significantly as he will cut corporate income taxes), and without a platform, not only do we lack policy specifics and costing but we also lack a timeline. Will his tax cuts be immediate or phased in? He hasn't said. He's counting on mines to bring economic prosperity to the North and all of Ontario but it takes time to establish a mine even in a lax regulatory environment it can take a couple years, and it can be years after that before the mine is actually profitable. What he is counting on to make his plan work won't happen over night, so either he won't implement anything right away or he's going to plunge us into financial ruin and no one will care because beer and gas will be cheap and our taxes will go down by 20% (which is really only 8%, because provincial income taxes are only 40% of our income tax burden in the first place).

[1overcosc]

Horwath's interruptions were fascinating because... they actually worked most of the time. They called attention back to her and made Ford look like an idiot, but without making her look arrogant or aggressive. I don't think I've ever seen a more successful use of interruptions in an election debate before.

[vid]

She reminded me of Donald Trump saying "Wrong" over and over again, except in Horwath's case, it's true.

[GlassCity]

I thought Wynne had the best answers. Now obviously I don't know anything about what's going on in Ontario and haven't the faintest clue about why she's so unpopular (something about hydro?) but her positions spoke to me the most. I also much prefer debates on policy and can't stand when it goes to nonsense like trust or responsibility, and she definitely shines there. Her union jab at Horwath seemed effective too - I wonder if it'll put Liberal-to-NDP converts in two minds about what they're gonna do now.

But policy aside, I thought everyone did well. Horwath had effective responses to jabs at her, and did a good job fighting Ford. I thought her interrupting was super annoying as well, but not enough to make me think less of her as a candidate - maybe just like her less as a person. Ford was good too. Managed to be effective in attacking Horwath with "all the businesses are gonna leave!!!" and had just enough ideas to make it seem like there was actually a platform somewhere.

All in all, I don't see anybody's minds being changed. Every leader likely did well to just not lose any ground, and keep their support and the level it's already at.

[vid]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

I thought Wynne had the best answers. Now obviously I don't know anything about what's going on in Ontario and haven't the faintest clue about why she's so unpopular (something about hydro?) but her positions spoke to me the most.

It's because she's an intelligent and well-spoken lesbian. Her popularity levels were significantly lower than those of the party itself through most of her term, and most of the smears against her were about her personality and tone when speaking, she is considered condescending and rude, especially by white men. In the coffee shops, the word "dyke" was used more to refer to her than to flood control devices, though it was actually getting less prevalent the past couple years as people stopped getting hung up on it and started complaining about selling hydro one (which they loved when the PCs wanted to do it) and the sex ed curriculum (which they don't understand well enough to discuss in the first place).

She has the same problem Clinton has. She's an effective leader and communicator and knows policy in and out, but she can't connect to the lowest common denominator of the population, so that segment of the population hates her. There is nothing she can do to change that, either. I don't think she said "folks" or "my friends" once in the debate!!

Originally Posted by GlassCity

Managed to be effective in attacking Horwath with "all the businesses are gonna leave!!!" and had just enough ideas to make it seem like there was actually a platform somewhere.

How many businesses left BC and Manitoba when they elected NDP governments? How many came back when they voted PC?

But never mind, the average voter doesn't get things like that. At this point few people actually remember much of what happened under Bob Rae other than "Rae Days" and they don't remember much of what happened under Mike Harris other than "Teacher's Strike and Walkerton", but ask them about Liberal scandals and they won't fucking shut up about them all.

[GlassCity]

Originally Posted by vid

It's because she's an intelligent and well-spoken lesbian. Her popularity levels were significantly lower than those of the party itself through most of her term, and most of the smears against her were about her personality and tone when speaking, she is considered condescending and rude, especially by white men. In the coffee shops, the word "dyke" was used more to refer to her than to flood control devices, though it was actually getting less prevalent the past couple years as people stopped getting hung up on it and started complaining about selling hydro one (which they loved when the PCs wanted to do it) and the sex ed curriculum (which they don't understand well enough to discuss in the first place).

She has the same problem Clinton has. She's an effective leader and communicator and knows policy in and out, but she can't connect to the lowest common denominator of the population, so that segment of the population hates her. There is nothing she can do to change that, either. I don't think she said "folks" or "my friends" once in the debate!!




How many businesses left BC and Manitoba when they elected NDP governments? How many came back when they voted PC?

But never mind, the average voter doesn't get things like that. At this point few people actually remember much of what happened under Bob Rae other than "Rae Days" and they don't remember much of what happened under Mike Harris other than "Teacher's Strike and Walkerton", but ask them about Liberal scandals and they won't fucking shut up about them all.

I really hope I don't come across as the kind of guy who would buy Ford's argument that the economy will crash the day the NDP is elected. I'm just saying I thought it was an effective tactic for the kind of average voter that you mentioned. The NDP have always had that shadow of "BAD FOR BUSINESS" behind them, and I thought Ford did a good job of exploiting it. Play into people's fears, no matter how deep they're buried.

[vid]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

I really hope I don't come across as the kind of guy who would buy Ford's argument that the economy will crash the day the NDP is elected. I'm just saying I thought it was an effective tactic for the kind of average voter that you mentioned. The NDP have always had that shadow of "BAD FOR BUSINESS" behind them, and I thought Ford did a good job of exploiting it. Play into people's fears, no matter how deep they're buried.

I didn't ask you because you brought that up, I asked you because you live in those provinces and you've experienced an NDP government that was elected during economically prosperous times. Ontario hasn't.

Ontario elected the NDP in the midst of a fairly deep recession, and ended up getting blamed for the losses, similar to how Obama was held accountable for losses in the 2008 recession. After that, we swung hard right and elected Mike Harris, whose policies are very similar to Doug Ford's and the US Republicans philosophies. We could be doing the same thing; Kathleen Wynne pulled the Liberals quite a bit to the left after she was elected leader, and while the economy here is doing quite well, there is a constant nagging perception by people in the private sector that everything is on the verge of disaster, all the time, and it's scaring people who don't understand how things work. Doug Ford is playing to their fears. At one point he said "Don't let the NDP's scare tactics fool you" and then proceeded to spit out his own scare tactics.

[GlassCity]

Originally Posted by vid

I didn't ask you because you brought that up, I asked you because you live in those provinces and you've experienced an NDP government that was elected during economically prosperous times. Ontario hasn't.

Ontario elected the NDP in the midst of a fairly deep recession, and ended up getting blamed for the losses, similar to how Obama was held accountable for losses in the 2008 recession. After that, we swung hard right and elected Mike Harris, whose policies are very similar to Doug Ford's and the US Republicans philosophies. We could be doing the same thing; Kathleen Wynne pulled the Liberals quite a bit to the left after she was elected leader, and while the economy here is doing quite well, there is a constant nagging perception by people in the private sector that everything is on the verge of disaster, all the time, and it's scaring people who don't understand how things work. Doug Ford is playing to their fears. At one point he said "Don't let the NDP's scare tactics fool you" and then proceeded to spit out his own scare tactics.

Oh, I thought you were asking rhetorically. I'm not at all involved in anything that would give me knowledge on the state of business in BC since they were elected, but from just news and stuff the only major issues have been energy project cancellations, and that's much more complex than what government is running a province at the time. I moved to Winnipeg when the PCs were already in power so can't say anything about that.

Also how when the Alberta NDP were elected during a recession and now they're getting blamed for it!

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

I thought Wynne had the best answers. Now obviously I don't know anything about what's going on in Ontario and haven't the faintest clue about why she's so unpopular (something about hydro?.

I'll give that question a try. I too am now a Vancouverite but was born and raised in Ontario and go back fairly regularly so hopefully that makes me a bit more objective.

Wynne is an intelligent women and has a background in education, which is part of her problem. She speaks in very academic terms giving her the impression that she speaks from the ivory towers and can't relate to the average person. She really gives the impression of running the classroom and welcomes all the kids views but quickly reminds you that she knows better. She reminds you of that bureaucrat telling the client that they are 'going to help you to help yourself' but instead of coming across endearingly it comes across as condescending.

She is also the person people can easily identify as the leader of a corrupt, arrogant, and tired Liberal party that has been in power far too long and the Liberals are vey much all of those things. She is the natural center of people's dislike for the party itself.

Even people who may agree with a lot of her policy platforms and decisions are tired of the Liberal party which is why so many traditional Liberal voters have moved over to the NDP. Over 80% of Ontarians agree that it's 'time for a change' and due to this, Wynne could walk on water and it wouldn't make any difference at this point............people want both her and the Liberals out.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I agree. Wynne presented herself well and seemed to have the most reasoned answers to questions.

Ford had a painted on smile most of the evening. I totally agree that the PCs lack of a comprehensive platform is a major flaw in their message.

I was getting annoyed with Horwath's ongoing interruptions during the debate.

It was odd (slightly creepy even) how he kept reverting to that tight, upper-teeth smile. Nerves, perhaps?

I was a bit turned off by Howrath's speaking over the other two leaders, but as long as the format permits it, I guess it's actually a strength. I can't say I got much out of the bits of the debate when two or three of them were speaking at the same time.

[niwell]

I've never personally been a fan of the talking over other speakers during a debate, but it may actually play as a positive in this case. IMO Horwath speaking over Doug made's factual errors made her seem more assertive in these cases. She'd already been seen as the underdog of the election and generally much more trustworthy and personally likable than the Doug/Wynne. I don't think the tactic would have worked nearly as well for Wynne for this reason.

I am not sure the debate swayed anyone in any direction, but in this day and age they rarely do anything major.


As an anecdotal aside I was at a large cottage get-together this weekend outside of Ottawa and there was a fair amount of discussion about the election. Most of the people there were from Ottawa and environs and a few from the Toronto area and had a range of backgrounds including bureaucrat, management professional, small business owner, police officer, chef and construction worker. Everyone who chose to voice their opinion on their vote choice had decided on NDP or were strongly leaning towards that (barring any major events). Of this only a few were traditional NDP voters - with most being Liberal and some leaning PC. Similarly, most were considering a PC vote before Doug won the nomination.

[1overcosc]

Abacus now puts the NDP in the lead for the first time and reportedly Mainstreet is about to as well.. Main street president Quito Maggi just tweeted that for the first time, his numbers now allow a path to an NDP majority.

[Bcasey25raptor]

when are the next round of polls to be released?

[HillStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

It was odd (slightly creepy even) how he kept reverting to that tight, upper-teeth smile. Nerves, perhaps?

I was a bit turned off by Howrath's speaking over the other two leaders, but as long as the format permits it, I guess it's actually a strength. I can't say I got much out of the bits of the debate when two or three of them were speaking at the same time.

I listened on the radio so wasn't effected by facial expressions of body language. The interruptions were distracting, and in some places the format didn't allow them, though the moderators seemed to.

The only time I found one of Horwath's interruptions useful was one of the several times Ford used the phrase "a new day will dawn." I couldn't discern the words said, but I got the impression of exasperation with the repeated use of the catch phrase, and I thought that was appropriate.

I thought Wynne seemed the most optimistic and positive. The other two seemed to spend a lot of time painting a picture of public services in shambles, but that's not what I see when I look around. I'm parents to young children, so I have accessed more provincial services lately than I had in a long time before. My experiences with the health care and education systems, among others, are far from the doom and gloom of the Tories and NDP.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Wynne is a smart lady who knows exactly what she stands for and exactly what her record in government is, NDP lie from the left and exaggerate how bad things are, the PC's lie from the right and exaggerate how bad things are.

Thing is, the NDP always piss me off this way much more than the Tories do since the NDP and Liberals are the same side in terms of what they wish to accomplish. Some elections I feel the NDP only exist as a party to oppose the Liberals rather then to actually keep tories from office.

NDP and Liberals should merge into a single party both federally and provincially, either that or proportional representation should be enacted to allow multiple parties. Under fptp a divided left is always going to benefit conservatives.

[Docere]

Mainstreet will be releasing 7 more riding polls today, including for some Brampton seats and the other Don Valleys.

[Bcasey25raptor]

[Marshsparrow]

Traditional Liberal voter.
- Would have voted PC except they picked Doh! Ford
- Was leaning NDP but am scared on some of their platform pieces and costs.
- After last night will vote Liberal - based on strength of local candidate and that they have greatest chance to stave off PC contender.

At this point a minority outcome would be best and lets do this again in two years with some new leadership.

I found Andrea's interventions annoying after the first few. Doug was a disaster - what a dummy. Christine Elliott would have been so much better.

[1overcosc]

^ Where do you live? Remember voting Liberal at this point might as well be voting PC in many areas of the province. (With exceptions; for example, where I live it's a Liberal-NDP race without the PCs in contention).

NDP minority is the best outcome, IMO. Give Horwath a test drive, get new leaders for the Liberals and PCs, and have the opposition retain the ability to terminate the government if Horwath is really not doing well.

NDP minority is tricky to achieve, because the chips would have to fall a very specific way for anyone to get a minority given the Liberal weakness.

[1overcosc]

Poll tracker updated. Chance of a PC majority has now fallen to about 50%.