Quote:
Originally Posted by acottawa
Latest Ipsos poll shows the NDP with a slight lead.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4222975/ontario-election-pcs-ndp-tied-ipsos-poll/
I tend to think this still points to a Tory majority. With Ford leading in the 416 (something that never happens for the Tories) and the NDP starting from so far back in Eastern and Central Ontario it will be very difficult for them to pick up enough seats. And with the Liberals running last in every region, the chances of a minority government (of any type) are pretty low. |
We're in completely unknown territory. Swing models break down entirely once third parties shift to front runner status, because when this happens it means a third party has acquired new chunks of support it's never had before, whereas swing models only calculate changes in already existing support bases. It's almost impossible to predict how the seats will line up. I do tend to think that the PCs are going to have more efficient distribution regardless so the NDP need at least 2-3 points of a lead to actually win though.
What I find interesting is how firm the Liberal floor is. It's been clear for weeks now that the Liberals are in third and that anyone who wants to stop Ford should vote NDP. Yet strategic voting hasn't really manifested that much, the Liberals are still firmly holding onto that 22%-23% or so of the vote in every poll. The NDP have continued to gain since the Liberals have dropped to the low 20s, but those gains have actually come at the expense of the PCs.
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