Rural Commuter Rail

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

To me none of the LRT extensions (beyond maybe Lincoln Fields) has a transit rationale. The existing BRT system is nowhere near capacity and travel time will likely increase as limited-stop buses are replaced with milk-run LRT. These extensions are purely driven by politics. In that context, Kanata/Stittsville is Ottawa's most populous suburb and is going to get higher order transit.

It depends on your definition of "transit rationale." From a purely capacity perspective, you are absolutely correct, but there are other factors. First of all there is the cost (in both dollars and environmental) or running hundreds of buses a day along the same route. Secondly, transitway extensions to Barrhaven and Kanata were patched together and still aren't very efficient. For the Kanata transitway, an eastbound 61 does the following:

1. Travel on city streets without bus lanes from Terry Fox Station to Eagelson Station
2. Use bus lanes on 417 to Moodie Dr.
3. Left turn at traffic light on Moodie Dr. and cross 417 to busway
4. Busway past Bayshore to Pinecrest.
5. Right turn on Pinecrest and cloverleaf onto 417
6. Use mixed traffic lanes on 417 to Qweensway station
7. Cloverleaf around onto transitway.

West bound is a bit better as it doesn't have to cross the 417 as much. Other bus routes are basically the same, though the routing to Eagleson (if they stop there at all) is different.

Not only will LRT avoid all that mixed traffic and dipsy-doodling, but it will use a route that is over 2km shorter. Because of that, I suspect the extension to Moodie will shorten travel times from Kanata. An extension to Terry Fox will have no affect for some but will be helpful for those who can then get a direct connection from a local bus or at a park and ride. Given how cheap that section of the extension is, it is worth doing IMHO.

As an alternative to a $2B LRT extension that would be slower than the bus and would be unlikely to drive new ridership,

Much of that $2B will be for the aprox. 3km of tunnelling (even if it is cut and cover) needed for the extension to Lincoln Fields that you admit to be important.

IMHO, a commuter rail system could be set up that would 1) be cheaper, potentially allowing resources to go into other transit priorities

Given the cost of double tracking the parts shared with VIA Rail, I highly doubt if would be cheaper unless VIA ends up doing it anyway for HFR (which you seem to think won't happen).

2) be faster for a lot of people, potentially actually driving ridership and

As Truenorth00 showed, travel time benefits for those in Kanata North are minimal and you would likely sacrifice frequency of service.

3) could serve areas not well served by the Queensway corridor, particularly Stittsville and the March Road Tech corridor (where there might be some reverse-commuting possibilities).

The southern route might have some benefits but with the tracks gone, it would be much more expensive. It certainly wouldn't work as the only route to Kanata.

As for reverse commuting, given that most would have to transfer to a bus in Kanata anyway and how far south the line runs, most people's reverse commute would be bus/LRT/train/bus and end up being a longer, slower route. With an LRT extension it would be bus/LRT/bus and the bus to/from Eagleson/March could also be used by Kanata/Stittsville residents who currently have no good way to get to Kanata North by transit.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I am curious why the Bank Street overpass did not make allowances for double tracking when it was rebuilt in the 90s. there was not much forward thinking going on. I can understand this for bridges built in the 70s when rail was considered passé.

Hmm. Who payed to rebuild it? I believe that section of track is owned jointly by CN and CP, so they may not have been interested in paying to widen it and if it was during a period of cutbacks to VIA, they may not have been able to pay.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by roger1818

• Overpass, Prince of Wales Dr.
• Canadian Northern Ontario Railway Federal Bridge
• Pathway, near Upper Otterson Place
• Overpass, Walkley Rd
• Pathway, connecting Springland Dr and Cromwell Dr.
• Overpass, Airport Parkway
• Brookfield Pathway, Level Crossing
• Overpass, Heron Rd
• Pathway, Heron Station
• Overpass, Transitway
• Overpass, Bank St.
• Level Crossing, Pleasant Park Rd
• Pathway, near Rodney Cres., Level Crossing

There is a lot of double counting there (pathways and roads that would use the same structure). A number of those are shared with the Via line, and the upgrade could be part of a broader upgrade to the Via track.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Not only will LRT avoid all that mixed traffic and dipsy-doodling, but it will use a route that is over 2km shorter. Because of that, I suspect the extension to Moodie will shorten travel times from Kanata. An extension to Terry Fox will have no affect for some but will be helpful for those who can then get a direct connection from a local bus or at a park and ride. Given how cheap that section of the extension is, it is worth doing IMHO.



Much of that $2B will be for the aprox. 3km of tunnelling (even if it is cut and cover) needed for the extension to Lincoln Fields that you admit to be important.



Given the cost of double tracking the parts shared with VIA Rail, I highly doubt if would be cheaper unless VIA ends up doing it anyway for HFR (which you seem to think won't happen).



As Truenorth00 showed, travel time benefits for those in Kanata North are minimal and you would likely sacrifice frequency of service.



The southern route might have some benefits but with the tracks gone, it would be much more expensive. It certainly wouldn't work as the only route to Kanata.

As for reverse commuting, given that most would have to transfer to a bus in Kanata anyway and how far south the line runs, most people's reverse commute would be bus/LRT/train/bus and end up being a longer, slower route. With an LRT extension it would be bus/LRT/bus and the bus to/from Eagleson/March could also be used by Kanata/Stittsville residents who currently have no good way to get to Kanata North by transit.

My understanding is that the $2B is the Moodie to Palladium cost. The extension from Tunney's to Moodie is additional.

My understanding is that most reverse commuting to Kanata is directed at the March road corridor. A hypothetical March Road station would be in walking distance of a number of major tech companies, whereas the hypothetical LRT has little employment along its route (except for retail type jobs which are unlikely to draw employees from central Ottawa).

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by acottawa

There is a lot of double counting there (pathways and roads that would use the same structure). A number of those are shared with the Via line, and the upgrade could be part of a broader upgrade to the Via track.

No double counting that I can see. All are separate crossings.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

There is a lot of double counting there (pathways and roads that would use the same structure).

I think you are grasping at straws here. First of all, I did say:

Originally Posted by roger1818

The pathways won't be very expensive to deal with, but they won't be free either.

However, let me go one by one through the pathways:

Pathway, near Upper Otterson Place
and
Pathway, connecting Springland Dr and Cromwell Dr.

Not close enough to another road to share a structure.

Brookfield Pathway, Level Crossing

It could be diverted to share an extended Airport Parkway overpass, or better yet it could be diverted to take advantage of potential future grade separation with the Trillium Line, so I will give you that one.

Pathway, Heron Station

They could divert people to 115m to the sidewalk on Heron rd (and 115m back), but they obviously thought it was valuable enough to build a separate underpass in the first place, so they would likely want to keep it.

Pathway, near Rodney Cres., Level Crossing

With them squeezing double tracks between the transitway and Rodney Cres. I don't think there is room to also squeeze a MUP to Pleasant Park Rd. Granted if they dig a trench for the rail lines, they could build a simple bridge over it for the MUP, but that is still a separate structure.

So unless you can point out any others, only one of them could be combined with another structure.

Originally Posted by acottawa

A number of those are shared with the Via line, and the upgrade could be part of a broader upgrade to the Via track.

Umm, they are all shared with the VIA Line; that was intentional. I did say in my very next post (replying to one of your posts):

Originally Posted by roger1818

Given the cost of double tracking the parts shared with VIA Rail, I highly doubt if would be cheaper unless VIA ends up doing it anyway for HFR (which you seem to think won't happen).

[HighwayStar]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Somebody asked for a list of cities of similar size that have LRT and commuter rail systems and I made a list. I recognize that every city is not exactly the same. Silicon Valley is extremely car-centric; it is a bit of a miracle they have any public transit at all.

To me none of the LRT extensions (beyond maybe Lincoln Fields) has a transit rationale. The existing BRT system is nowhere near capacity and travel time will likely increase as limited-stop buses are replaced with milk-run LRT. These extensions are purely driven by politics. In that context, Kanata/Stittsville is Ottawa's most populous suburb and is going to get higher order transit.

As an alternative to a $2B LRT extension that would be slower than the bus and would be unlikely to drive new ridership, IMHO, a commuter rail system could be set up that would 1) be cheaper, potentially allowing resources to go into other transit priorities 2) be faster for a lot of people, potentially actually driving ridership and 3) could serve areas not well served by the Queensway corridor, particularly Stittsville and the March Road Tech corridor (where there might be some reverse-commuting possibilities).

Do I think it will happen? No. Ottawans are zealous transferphobes and a 40km tram will sound way better to most people.

This.

I actually think a 23 stop LRT from Kanata to Downtown will turn people off using transit...

At least there is the option to remove the unused HOV lanes and provide sufficient Highway capacity.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Umm, they are all shared with the VIA Line; that was intentional. I did say in my very next post (replying to one of your posts):

Sorry, missed that.

Whether or not HFR happens, at some point there will be money for Via capital projects and the single track through most of Ottawa is a significant bottleneck.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

My understanding is that the $2B is the Moodie to Palladium cost. The extension from Tunney's to Moodie is additional.

Oh. You were talking about that $1.85B . That was to extend all the way to Hazeldean Rd. The extension to Terry Fox (to provide an apples to apples comparison with a commuter rail line to Kanata) would only cost $710M

My understanding is that most reverse commuting to Kanata is directed at the March road corridor. A hypothetical March Road station would be in walking distance of a number of major tech companies, whereas the hypothetical LRT has little employment along its route (except for retail type jobs which are unlikely to draw employees from central Ottawa).

Most is to the Kanata North Business Park, that is true. However, the rail lines are on the outer perimeter of the park. A hypothetical March Road station would be on the southern edge of the park which is the oldest part and has the lowest density (mostly 1 and 2 story office buildings). Also, the park is not very walking friendly. March Rd is a 6 lane, 80km/h highway and the sidewalks are immediately beside the road. It is also wide open and very wind swept. I have walked along it before and it isn't very fun.

Here is a map showing the 800m perimeter from one potential station location (click on it to see it in Google MyMaps).

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by HighwayStar

I actually think a 23 stop LRT from Kanata to Downtown will turn people off using transit...

That is why I don't think it should be extended beyond Terry Fox as that is about the maximum number of stops you would want. That would only add 3 more stops, and most of the extension is through green belt, where the train can get up to its 100km limit. In the future we could look at getting even faster trains, though time wise it probably wouldn't help much.

At least there is the option to remove the unused HOV lanes and provide sufficient Highway capacity.

By HOV I assume you mean bus lanes? Do you really think that is necessary between Moodie and Eagleson? We currently have:

• 6 regular lanes
• 2 HOV lanes, and
• 2 Bus lanes

Do we really need a 10 lane highway?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Somebody asked for a list of cities of similar size that have LRT and commuter rail systems and I made a list. I recognize that every city is not exactly the same. Silicon Valley is extremely car-centric; it is a bit of a miracle they have any public transit at all.

Right. An important lesson from this, is to stop comparing to other cities without any context at all. We should be looking at our own goals and looking for the best ways to achieve them.

To that end, what's the goal of our transit policy? And where does the desire to provide commuter rail fit it into it?

Originally Posted by acottawa

To me none of the LRT extensions (beyond maybe Lincoln Fields) has a transit rationale. The existing BRT system is nowhere near capacity and travel time will likely increase as limited-stop buses are replaced with milk-run LRT.

I don't see how you could make that assertion with any real data. The BRT system in the west end is very much constrained by running on the Parkway. As the population increases in the west end, can OC Transpo be sure that the NCC will let them run as many buses as needed to keep up?

I also don't see how you can say it will be slower. The limited stop buses are not express. Any rider can request a stop. And on most days, they will stop at most of the Transitway stops on the way to the core. I honestly cannot see there being significant travel time difference.

Lastly, and most importantly, you ignore operating costs and efficiency. Moving riders on a bus carrying 50 riders is nowhere near as efficient or cheap as moving them on an LRV with 300 pax capacity. There's a reason OC Transpo can layoff hundreds after the Confederation Line comes into service. And that's with only 12.5 km. Imagine the gains in efficiency after Stage 2.

Originally Posted by acottawa

These extensions are purely driven by politics.

As are most decisions on where to invest billions. But there's a perfectly sound economic case to extend the LRT. The ridership numbers are there.

Originally Posted by acottawa

In that context, Kanata/Stittsville is Ottawa's most populous suburb and is going to get higher order transit.

You have a problem with populated areas getting more service?

Originally Posted by acottawa

As an alternative to a $2B LRT extension that would be slower than the bus and would be unlikely to drive new ridership, IMHO, a commuter rail system could be set up that would 1) be cheaper, potentially allowing resources to go into other transit priorities 2) be faster for a lot of people, potentially actually driving ridership and 3) could serve areas not well served by the Queensway corridor, particularly Stittsville and the March Road Tech corridor (where there might be some reverse-commuting possibilities).

So many assumptions in so few lines. It's impressive.

1) You are only looking at transit investment and not transport investments. If the burbs only use transit to commute in, we'll have so much more traffic, that we'll end up spending a ton more on roads and highway expansion. You are also ignoring the fact that this commuter rail system proposed for Ottawa is simply shifting demand along the LRT line. If you end up with substantially higher loads at Tremblay, you'll now have to invest more for LRVs to size the system at that peak. So where's the savings?

2) Faster, for a lot of people is very much debatable. Especially with commuter and suburban rail where you are talking 30 min or even hourly frequencies. Whatever you gain in speed, you will now lose in flexibility. Are you really saving time if the train timings mean you will always reach work 20 mins early, or end up staying 20 mins late daily to catch train? And again, with the distances and transfers involved we're talking 10-20 mins total time savings maximum. I don't see how that will drive substantial ridership expansion, especially coupled with the loss of LRT expansion. Ultimately though the proof is in the pudding. The planners can model this out and see how much ridership they can get. I'm willing to be that the loss of flexibility is sufficient enough that a 6 km long LRT expansion will generate more ridership than a commuter rail system will.

Originally Posted by acottawa

Do I think it will happen? No. Ottawans are zealous transferphobes and a 40km tram will sound way better to most people.

Again with the intellectual dishonesty. The reason nobody cares about commuter rail is because almost nobody is travelling 40km in Ottawa. If we take a rather extreme scenario where somebody is traveling from Hazeldean to the Rideau Centre, right across downtown, it's 25 km. On an LRT line averaging 35 kph, that's 43 mins. Is saving 10 -15 mins over that, with commuter rail, worthwhile to most people? Probably not.

And this is not just an Ottawa thing. We're about to spend a few billion dollars extending the subway from Kennedy station to Scarborough Town Centre in Toronto, because a good chunk of Scarborough absolutely detests the transfer at Kennedy Station.

The resistance to transfers is universal and something that psychologists, economists and network planners have studied for decades.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00148463

https://www.nytimes.com/1989/06/04/nyregion/skip-stop-subway-plan-annoys-no-1-riders.html

https://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/9780784479896.077?src=recsys&

Seems edgy for you to say Ottawans are zealous transferphobes. But that just seems gauche to me. Ottawa transit users behaviour seems to be inline with that of users in other cities elsewhere. They avoid transfers that they perceive as unnecessary unless there are substantial time savings. Saving 10 mins on a 40 min bus ride is not going to be considered substantial enough to most.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by HighwayStar

This.

I actually think a 23 stop LRT from Kanata to Downtown will turn people off using transit...

At least there is the option to remove the unused HOV lanes and provide sufficient Highway capacity.

People from Scarborough ride the subway in Toronto 20+ stops to the core daily. Hasn't stopped anybody over there. Why would Ottawa be any different?

As long as tradeoff between the cost and stress of driving is less than perceived value given up with the extra time spent on transit, people will ride transit.

Many of these people are doing the same trip today on a bus. And you think they'll complaining when they get a more comfortable rail solution?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by roger1818

That is why I don't think it should be extended beyond Terry Fox as that is about the maximum number of stops you would want. That would only add 3 more stops, and most of the extension is through green belt, where the train can get up to its 100km limit. In the future we could look at getting even faster trains, though time wise it probably wouldn't help much.

What difference the number of stops make? If you start at Hazeldean and Terry Fox, why would you complain that you now have more LRT stops? You are trading a slightly longer LRT ride for a shorter bus ride.

I see no logic in this line of thinking at all. These people have to travel the exact same distance. Extending the LRT only changes the proportion of their travel that is on a bus.

The only reason I have ever opposed further LRT extensions is because of the sprawl induced. People take the time savings and use them to move further out and buy bigger McMansions. Watch how quickly Rockland booms after Stage 2 opens.

Originally Posted by roger1818

By HOV I assume you mean bus lanes? Do you really think that is necessary between Moodie and Eagleson? We currently have:

• 6 regular lanes
• 2 HOV lanes, and
• 2 Bus lanes

Do we really need a 10 lane highway?

To be honest, I'm not optimistic the HOV lanes survive a PC Government. But you're right, removing them would be a terrible idea. Get a short period or reprieve, till induced demand simply jams up the road again. And expanding the highway here simply means we're back to the bottleneck that exists inside the greenbelt. Ultimately, Ottawa suburbanites have got to get used to the idea that they will be taking transit more often, and especially to the core. The city is limited in road capacity. The downtown core is limited in parking space.

So if you're going to be taking transit the only questions are whether you want to be on a bus or train and how frequent do you want that service to be.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

People from Scarborough ride the subway in Toronto 20+ stops to the core daily. Hasn't stopped anybody over there. Why would Ottawa be any different?

As long as tradeoff between the cost and stress of driving is less than perceived value given up with the extra time spent on transit, people will ride transit.

Driving is way more competitive in Ottawa: less congested roads, more available parking. What Ottawa calls a traffic jam is nothing to what Toronto would call a traffic jam. Another key difference is the provincial government continues to invest in highway expansion in Ottawa, which they haven't done in the 416 for decades.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Driving is way more competitive in Ottawa: less congested roads, more available parking. What Ottawa calls a traffic jam is nothing to what Toronto would call a traffic jam. Another key difference is the provincial government continues to invest in highway expansion in Ottawa, which they haven't done in the 416 for decades.

Having lived in and moved back and forth, I absolutely disagree. Traffic in Ottawa, at peak is just as bad. Particularly given the fact that there are limited entry points and no highways into the CBD here.

The only difference is the duration of peak hours and the cost of parking.

Ottawa has fairly high proportion of transit use to the downtown core. Just like other major cities. And there’s no worry of this changing in the years to come. It’s not like driving is going to get easier over time. Meanwhile, after stage 2, 70% of resident will be within a max of 20 min bus ride from an LRT station (5km).

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

What difference the number of stops make? If you start at Hazeldean and Terry Fox, why would you complain that you now have more LRT stops? You are trading a slightly longer LRT ride for a shorter bus ride.

Except the Connexion buses from Stittsville won't stop after they hop on the 417 at either Carp Rd or Paladium Dr until they get to Moodie station. An extension to Terry Fox will add to the number of stops, but it is offset by the stops providing useful connections for some commuters. The stops west of Terry Fox aren't as useful that way.

I see no logic in this line of thinking at all. These people have to travel the exact same distance. Extending the LRT only changes the proportion of their travel that is on a bus.

Not actually true. The extension to Hazeldean is in kind of a fish hook shape so you end curving to the west, north, east and south to get to Terry Fox (see image below).

The only reason I have ever opposed further LRT extensions is because of the sprawl induced. People take the time savings and use them to move further out and buy bigger McMansions. Watch how quickly Rockland booms after Stage 2 opens.

It also doesn't make financial or environmental sense. You are trading at best 1.5 buses for every 1 train, but probably closer to 1 for 1. The stops also don't make sense for TOD either, so few will actually live near them. Given the significantly higher cost per km extending beyond Terry Fox has, I just don't see the point.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Having lived in and moved back and forth, I absolutely disagree. Traffic in Ottawa, at peak is just as bad. Particularly given the fact that there are limited entry points and no highways into the CBD here.

Well, I'm writing this near the peak of the Ottawa rush hour. Bank and Laurier to Palladium/417 is 25 km and takes 36 minutes by the fastest route, 50 if you take the Queensway (which is under construction).

King and Bay to Scarborough Town Centre (also 25 km) takes 50 minutes by the fastest route and 56 minutes by the DVP/401.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Meanwhile, after stage 2, 70% of resident will be within a max of 20 min bus ride from an LRT station (5km).

Now how many of those 70% are also within 5km of their destination, and thus won't use LRT? The useful radius of a station should be its distance from the CBD to a maximum of 5 km.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Except the Connexion buses from Stittsville won't stop after they hop on the 417 at either Carp Rd or Paladium Dr until they get to Moodie station. An extension to Terry Fox will add to the number of stops, but it is offset by the stops providing useful connections for some commuters. The stops west of Terry Fox aren't as useful that way.

You're assuming those bus routes stay as they are if/when LRT is extended to Kanata. There's no way that happens. Why would OC Transpo spend extra money on added capacity on a parallel route?

Originally Posted by roger1818

Not actually true. The extension to Hazeldean is in kind of a fish hook shape so you end curving to the west, north, east and south to get to Terry Fox (see image below).

This is nitpicking. A fish hook, on a rail line not subject to traffic, is adding a few hundred metres of extra travel. It's not really relevant when we're talking about traveling 25 km to downtown Ottawa. For all intents and purposes, my comment stands, it's the same 25 km. LRT extensions just move the transfer point closer to them.

Originally Posted by roger1818

It also doesn't make financial or environmental sense. You are trading at best 1.5 buses for every 1 train, but probably closer to 1 for 1.

That's today. This extension probably isn't coming into service till 2030. How big will Kanata and Stittsville be then?

Don't get me wrong. I'm no fan of extensions outside the greenbelt. But that ship has now sailed when we committed to going to Trim, in Stage 2, for Orleans.

Originally Posted by roger1818

The stops also don't make sense for TOD either, so few will actually live near them. Given the significantly higher cost per km extending beyond Terry Fox has, I just don't see the point.

I don't have an issue with going past Terry Fox (my broader reservations on going outside the Greenbelt aside). I just don't like their routing. I would have done a much straighter routing:

Eagleson -> Terry Fox -> CTC/Huntmar -> Hazeldean/Stittsville Main

As planned, all of Stittsville faces long bus rides to Kanata to catch the train, all to service mostly stable low density residential neighbourhoods.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Now how many of those 70% are also within 5km of their destination, and thus won't use LRT? The useful radius of a station should be its distance from the CBD to a maximum of 5 km.

It's just a figure of merit. There's different ways to look at it. But station catchments are usually something like:

x hundred metres - the walking radius
y km - bussing radius

Ottawa tends to use 800m and 5km. I'd prefer they use 500m and 3km like Toronto does. But I don't work for the City of Ottawa....