The Metro Vancouver Real Estate Thread

[SpongeG]

Suburbs dominate top Lower Mainland neighbourhoods for residential real estate
investment: MoneySense

By Omri Wallach | April 24, 2018

The Lower Mainland’s top 25 neighbourhoods for residential real estate investment are not in Vancouver, according to a new MoneySense ranking; instead, they are in the surrounding suburbs.

Vancouver’s top 25 neighbourhoods for investment were almost all located on the eastern side of the region, with six neighbourhoods each in New Westminster and Port Coquitlam on the list and four within Langley.

The top five neighbourhoods to invest in were uptown New Westminster, Birchland Manor in Port Coquitlam, Mission, Port Moody Centre and Mary Hill in Port Coquitlam.

The MoneySense ranking looks at the relative value of an area compared with areas nearby, not just the overall marketplace. It also gives points for sustained price appreciation, the number of sales compared with the number of new listings, an affordable ratio of average income to average housing prices and a healthy local employment market.

...

https://biv.com/article/2018/04/suburbs-...d-neighbourhoods-residential-real-estate

From this money sense article
http://www.moneysense.ca/spend/real-estate/top-cities-canadian-real-estate-2018/

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

Suburbs dominate top Lower Mainland neighbourhoods for residential real estate
investment: MoneySense

By Omri Wallach | April 24, 2018

The Lower Mainland’s top 25 neighbourhoods for residential real estate investment are not in Vancouver, according to a new MoneySense ranking; instead, they are in the surrounding suburbs.

Vancouver’s top 25 neighbourhoods for investment were almost all located on the eastern side of the region, with six neighbourhoods each in New Westminster and Port Coquitlam on the list and four within Langley.

The top five neighbourhoods to invest in were uptown New Westminster, Birchland Manor in Port Coquitlam, Mission, Port Moody Centre and Mary Hill in Port Coquitlam.

The MoneySense ranking looks at the relative value of an area compared with areas nearby, not just the overall marketplace. It also gives points for sustained price appreciation, the number of sales compared with the number of new listings, an affordable ratio of average income to average housing prices and a healthy local employment market.

...

https://biv.com/article/2018/04/suburbs-...d-neighbourhoods-residential-real-estate

From this money sense article
http://www.moneysense.ca/spend/real-estate/top-cities-canadian-real-estate-2018/

Thank you for the info great post!

[whatnext]

Speculatiion mania in action - I remember looking at this unit exactly 3 years ago and it was listed for $918k, now it's on the market with no changes for $1.499

https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2259122/1...type=property_search&search_id=742414268

[Abii]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Speculatiion mania in action - I remember looking at this unit exactly 3 years ago and it was listed for $918k, now it's on the market with no changes for $1.499

https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2259122/1...type=property_search&search_id=742414268

I'm listing my condo this month. It's been a year in the works (the decision to sell I mean), but now that my tenant has left and I've canceled the internet/cable I'm getting a bit of cold feet. I need the money as I'm going back to school for three years (change of careers), but on the other hand I'm constantly thinking about 3-4 years down the line and what the landscape is going to be like. My 650-680k condo today might fetch 900 in 3-4 years!!!

If it wasn't for the school thing I would hold on for dear life. I don't care where interest rates are going. Vancouver seems to always defy gravity lol

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by Abii

I'm listing my condo this month. It's been a year in the works (the decision to sell I mean), but now that my tenant has left and I've canceled the internet/cable I'm getting a bit of cold feet. I need the money as I'm going back to school for three years (change of careers), but on the other hand I'm constantly thinking about 3-4 years down the line and what the landscape is going to be like. My 650-680k condo today might fetch 900 in 3-4 years!!!

If it wasn't for the school thing I would hold on for dear life. I don't care where interest rates are going. Vancouver seems to always defy gravity lol

You might just get that 900 if you do hold on especially considering all those 3000+ Amazon jobs just announced today and all the other mega projects coming house prices will definitely rise now.

[vango]

British Columbia considers halt to exclusive access for condo presales

By Kathy Tomlinson | April 30, 2018

Forcing developers to make preconstruction condo units available to all potential buyers at the same time and the same price is something B.C.’s Finance Minister says she is open to trying in order to help make real estate more affordable in and around Vancouver.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/b...-to-exclusive-access-for-condo-presales/

There's also a full investigation article behind the Globe's paywall
Flipping of condo units by insiders fuels hot Vancouver market

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/a...-by-insiders-fuels-hot-vancouver-market/

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by vango

British Columbia considers halt to exclusive access for condo presales

By Kathy Tomlinson | April 30, 2018

There's also a full investigation article behind the Globe's paywall
Flipping of condo units by insiders fuels hot Vancouver market

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/a...-by-insiders-fuels-hot-vancouver-market/

About time. That article was shocking on how it showed how developers and realtors screw over other buyers and drive up prices. Excerpt:

The most sought-after condos under construction in Canada’s priciest real estate market are being snapped up in private deals involving developers, select realtors and speculators.

Many of those players later flip the units for much higher prices, sucking up supply, further driving up prices and leaving Vancouver-area residents increasingly desperate for an affordable place to live....

...The Globe’s investigation discovered real estate agents with local or foreign clients who buy multiple units have preferential first access, along with other industry players such as private financiers.

A significant number of realtors grabbed a piece of the action for themselves or their families by purchasing one or more units. Many resold those in recent years and made six-figure profits, known in the industry as the “lift.”

“It’s turned into insider trading,” said Shali Tark, one of several realtors The Globe spoke to who are not members of that insider set. She said she steers clear of presale condos because her clients are at a big disadvantage.

“You will see the same names,” she said, referring to buyers with exclusive access. “They are not buying just one or two – some are buying lots. It’s all behind closed doors, and there is no regulation of who is getting what.”...

...The Globe was able to compile the names of 76 industry insiders in all, including realtors, lenders and others; most of them had purchased units in the six developments and flipped them for large profits.

Another 56 speculators had no Canadian address or listed a foreign one. Some listed their occupation as “student” or “homemaker,” which, in Vancouver, often indicates that purchases were made with foreign money, usually from China....

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/a...-by-insiders-fuels-hot-vancouver-market/

[VanK]

Originally Posted by vango

British Columbia considers halt to exclusive access for condo presales

By Kathy Tomlinson | April 30, 2018

There's also a full investigation article behind the Globe's paywall
Flipping of condo units by insiders fuels hot Vancouver market

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/a...-by-insiders-fuels-hot-vancouver-market/

Wont make a difference. The majority of the "LOCAL" "Canadian" buyers (Mr. Johnson, Mr. Smith, Mr. Miller) won't buy anyways. Mr. Johnson will come into the sales office and complain about the floorplans and price and wont buy. Mr. Johnson is the vocal guy complaining he didnt get a chance to buy even when he wouldnt have pulled the trigger in the first place. Make a local's first policy, sure its fine. Just wont do a thing to curb anything.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by VanK

Wont make a difference. The majority of the "LOCAL" "Canadian" buyers (Mr. Johnson, Mr. Smith, Mr. Miller) won't buy anyways. Mr. Johnson will come into the sales office and complain about the floorplans and price and wont buy. Mr. Johnson is the vocal guy complaining he didnt get a chance to buy even when he wouldnt have pulled the trigger in the first place. Make a local's first policy, sure its fine. Just wont do a thing to curb anything.

If that's true, then who are the insiders flipping their units to?

The "insiders" have effectively become middle men, who add nothing to value of the units and just drive up the cost to the end user. Rather stupid of the developers to leave money on the table.

To make it simple, the province should just require property be registered at the time of pre-sale purchase and turn that data over to the CRA to ensure it is taxed fully when flipped.

[Abii]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

You might just get that 900 if you do hold on especially considering all those 3000+ Amazon jobs just announced today and all the other mega projects coming house prices will definitely rise now.

Your post was like a dagger to the heart loool.
Oh man. It's crazy how the human brain works. Once a thought comes into your head, it spreads like cancer. Now I'm hesitant to sell. This entire week people have been telling me not to sell, but...

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by Abii

Your post was like a dagger to the heart loool.
Oh man. It's crazy how the human brain works. Once a thought comes into your head, it spreads like cancer. Now I'm hesitant to sell. This entire week people have been telling me not to sell, but...

If you need the money, sell my friend. Cash in. Much of the increase to condos has been because people who have otherwise bought a house were priced out by the new strict requirements. Essentially they're settling... how soon are all those people going to regret... condos are great and have had a good run.

Human psychology has us selling after prices collapse. We're afraid of a loss... or that we didn't cash out at the top! And then, when everyone's buying, we think... oh I want in too... long after price appreciation has taken place. When your friends are saying don't sell... hold out... they're not the ones holding on to the bag in the end.

The current government we have is going everything they can to stymy real estate growth and the federal government is doing the same. There's been investigation after investigation recently and you can guarantee that some of the so-called money that's been apparently pouring will start to go to sunnier locales... especially now that the Canadian government has signed an agreement to share income data with China.

The 3000 jobs at Amazon will easily be absorbed into the market and many transplants will RENT, not buy... You're not going to suddenly get 3000 people looking to set roots down as soon as they get a new job. They MAY slowly buy over the next 5 years or so.

Personally, consider yourself fortunate that you'll have a windfall. Take the money and diversify it.

Also... food for thought:

700,000 invested in a portfolio that's returning a very modest 5% YoY will increase to 893,000 in 5 years... and have no condo fees, no property tax, no maintenance, and no 5% RE fees to sell. Now, I know you're going to use the money to sell, and I'm sure the condo is not paid off... but it's interesting when you actually sit down and do the math what real the difference is.

In other news
Mortgage rates when up... again. The cost of borrowing large sums of money is going up, up, up!!! You can't say that won't affect people's ability to afford a 900k condo.

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by whatnext

If that's true, then who are the insiders flipping their units to?

The "insiders" have effectively become middle men, who add nothing to value of the units and just drive up the cost to the end user. Rather stupid of the developers to leave money on the table.

To make it simple, the province should just require property be registered at the time of pre-sale purchase and turn that data over to the CRA to ensure it is taxed fully when flipped.

Totally agree with this. Better than specifically creating policies that target foreign buyers. Just take away the incentive to flip by taxing the proceeds. If housing has become a commodity then really... why is exempt from capital gains? Make a home profits taxable at your marginal rate for the 1st five years of ownership. If you're selling earlier than that then it's subject to capital gains.

Much better than just saying people outside of BC have to pay a speculator's tax... as any exception creates a loophole.

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by Abii

I'm listing my condo this month. It's been a year in the works (the decision to sell I mean), but now that my tenant has left and I've canceled the internet/cable I'm getting a bit of cold feet. I need the money as I'm going back to school for three years (change of careers), but on the other hand I'm constantly thinking about 3-4 years down the line and what the landscape is going to be like. My 650-680k condo today might fetch 900 in 3-4 years!!!

If it wasn't for the school thing I would hold on for dear life. I don't care where interest rates are going. Vancouver seems to always defy gravity lol

And.... it's already dropped to 1,399,000. I wonder how much more it will have to drop to sell.

[bluefox]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

If housing has become a commodity then really... why is exempt from capital gains?

Simple. The government, no matter the party in charge, is afraid of the political ramifications of ticking off homeowners. Everyone else suffers the policy consequences.

[SpongeG]

An interesting read

How former Vancouver city planners would have done things differently

From funding the missing middle to asking more of developers, former city planners address affordability

Bethany Lindsay · CBC News · Posted: May 08, 2018

Ann McAfee grew up in the 50s and 60s, when Vancouver was an entirely different place from what it is today. It was "an unspectacular city in a spectacular setting," she says.

"I can remember in the 50s, when False Creek was all industry and pollution everywhere, and my dad had to walk home in front of the car with my mom driving because you couldn't see — it was a London pea soup," McAfee told CBC News.

And so it's no surprise that in her 32 years working at city hall, first as senior housing planner and then as co-director of planning, a major focus was making Vancouver a nicer place to live. McAfee helped catapult Vancouver to the top of global "livability" lists, but in the meantime, rents and real estate prices were creeping ever higher.

"We were so busy patting ourselves on the back, we probably should have been much more serious about what senior government programs, investor programs" meant for the city, she said.

McAfee is one of three former Vancouver planning directors who spoke with CBC about how they would have done things differently if they'd known how unaffordable housing would become.

Each has different ideas, from better long-range planning to a stronger focus on housing for middle-income families, but they all share a sense of dismay about the current crisis in Vancouver.


An aerial photograph shows downtown Vancouver in the 1970s. (Gordon Sayle/City of Vancouver Archives COV-S167---: CVA 515-7)

...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-co...d-have-done-things-differently-1.4651705

[rofina]

There is now $343,000 in development charges (taxes) on the average 900sq/ft down town condo.

That's more than the condo cost in 2000.

Forget land costs.
Forget build costs.

This will never be resolved by building high rise.

The only hope we have is to rezone all the SFH land into 800-1000sq/ft row home type structures.

We have to limit the land lift by curbing expectations of high density everywhere.

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by rofina

There is now $343,000 in development charges (taxes) on the average 900sq/ft down town condo.

That's more than the condo cost in 2000.

Forget land costs.
Forget build costs.

This will never be resolved by building high rise.

The only hope we have is to rezone all the SFH land into 800-1000sq/ft row home type structures.

We have to limit the land lift by curbing expectations of high density everywhere.

Could you break down and cite sources for that number?

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by rofina

There is now $343,000 in development charges (taxes) on the average 900sq/ft down town condo.

That's more than the condo cost in 2000.

Forget land costs.
Forget build costs.

This will never be resolved by building high rise.

The only hope we have is to rezone all the SFH land into 800-1000sq/ft row home type structures.

We have to limit the land lift by curbing expectations of high density everywhere.

Your number seems too high. The recently approved Bosa 'jenga' Ole Scheeren tower on West Georgia has a combined Development Cost Levy, Public Art and Community Amenity Contribution of $279,400 per unit. The average size of the units in that project is greater than 900 sq. ft. - over two thirds will be 2-bed or larger. The CAC, which is over $250,000 per unit, was offered by the developer based on the increase of land value that is created by adding the residential tower. This is one of the higher CACs, because it's a high density tower with a very high anticipated value (so the CAC as % of the land lift will be greater). Lower density projects with lower land lift should generate a lower CAC per unit.

If you really think that if the developer would charge $250,000 less per unit if they didn't have to offer a CAC, then you have a very different understanding of how housing markets work. Almost all the CACs are going to pay for the new and upgraded facilities that will be provided in the West End, with around $5m to support the Heritage Action Plan. You can see all the details here.

If the developer wasn't expected to pay a CAC, either land values would be even higher, or the developer would make an even greater profit, and the West End wouldn't see any benefit in the form of new or upgraded facilities.

[240glt]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

An interesting read

How former Vancouver city planners would have done things differently

From funding the missing middle to asking more of developers, former city planners address affordability

Bethany Lindsay · CBC News · Posted: May 08, 2018

Ann McAfee grew up in the 50s and 60s, when Vancouver was an entirely different place from what it is today. It was "an unspectacular city in a spectacular setting," she says.

"I can remember in the 50s, when False Creek was all industry and pollution everywhere, and my dad had to walk home in front of the car with my mom driving because you couldn't see — it was a London pea soup," McAfee told CBC News.

And so it's no surprise that in her 32 years working at city hall, first as senior housing planner and then as co-director of planning, a major focus was making Vancouver a nicer place to live. McAfee helped catapult Vancouver to the top of global "livability" lists, but in the meantime, rents and real estate prices were creeping ever higher.

"We were so busy patting ourselves on the back, we probably should have been much more serious about what senior government programs, investor programs" meant for the city, she said.

McAfee is one of three former Vancouver planning directors who spoke with CBC about how they would have done things differently if they'd known how unaffordable housing would become.

Each has different ideas, from better long-range planning to a stronger focus on housing for middle-income families, but they all share a sense of dismay about the current crisis in Vancouver.


An aerial photograph shows downtown Vancouver in the 1970s. (Gordon Sayle/City of Vancouver Archives COV-S167---: CVA 515-7)

...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-co...d-have-done-things-differently-1.4651705

I very vaguely remember Vancouver when it was like that

Such a shocking difference then vs. now

[rofina]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

Could you break down and cite sources for that number?

Source: http://theprovince.com/news/local-news/t...wcm/ed5eaa00-b38d-47a0-912f-89bf4f2b3e1f


Paragraph 7 Quote:

Between 2008 and 2018 development fees for an average 900-square-foot downtown Vancouver unit has increased from $43,000 to $343,000, according to UDI figures.