Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[ssiguy]

I was recently in Paris, a truly breath taking city of incredibly beautiful architecture, grand boulevards, unsurpassed restaurants and shopping, great infrastructure, and world leading culture, arts, and museums but you couldn`t pay me enough to live there.

I was surprised how many I met that were thinking of moving to Canada particulary Montreal and a lesser extent Toronto which makes perfect sense. The grass is always greener although I do agree that Vancouver has changed too much and too fast and has lost it`s once off-beat character by selling itself to the highest bidder.

[SpongeG]

Vancouver has worst housing affordability ever recorded in Canada: RBC

82.5% of average household’s income necessary to finance a Vancouver home

By Glen Korstrom | April 16, 2018

A Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) study released this month ranks Vancouver’s housing market as the least affordable for any regional market ever recorded in Canada.

The costs of owning a home at today’s prices would have represented an astounding 85.2% of a typical household’s income in the fourth quarter, the bank said in its Housing Trends and Affordability report.

The report called Metro Vancouver’s rising home prices a “worrying trend,” and explained that the phenomenon prompted the B.C. government to impose new and expanded initiatives to cool the market down.

...

https://biv.com/article/2018/04/vancouver-has-worst-housing-affordability-ever-recorded-canada-rbc

[cornholio]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I was recently in Paris, a truly breath taking city of incredibly beautiful architecture, grand boulevards, unsurpassed restaurants and shopping, great infrastructure, and world leading culture, arts, and museums but you couldn`t pay me enough to live there.

I was surprised how many I met that were thinking of moving to Canada particulary Montreal and a lesser extent Toronto which makes perfect sense. The grass is always greener although I do agree that Vancouver has changed too much and too fast and has lost it`s once off-beat character by selling itself to the highest bidder.

Statistics speak for them selves. People dont immigrate to Canada from Europe and likely more emigrate from Canada to Europe now. Also some parts of western europe also have some things to work on, having said that I live in central europe. Regardless you were a tourist. Its much different form actually living somewhere. Like I said many parts of Canada are unique and great, its main cities are going down the shiter (looking at Toronto and Vancouver). You wouldn't think it though because well the actual demographics are changing so rapidly that what the people living there value is starting to be quite unhinged from what is standard for a developed werstern country. And the real changes are still in infancy. But back to the point realestate for me in say Vancouver and Toronto is worth nothing because I my self would never want to subject my self to living there in the future nor even at this point now.

[theman23]

Z

[dleung]

Vancouver has affordability issues, but "the last place I would wish for anyone to live in"??... yeah definitely a racial thing lol


Did Pinion delete his posts from the last 50 pages?? I thought married people are too old to be throwing tantrums!

[giallo]

Yeah, the whole rant of demographic changes in Vancouver and Toronto does sound a bit like he doesn't want to live next to Mainland Chinese immigrants. Cool. The less of that attitude in Canada, the better.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by giallo

Yeah, the whole rant of demographic changes in Vancouver and Toronto does sound a bit like he doesn't want to live next to Mainland Chinese immigrants. Cool. The less of that attitude in Canada, the better.

I don't know if the other posters are racist or not, but it's hard to see this as anything other than a personal attack. It would be better to discuss the issues rather than the unknown motivations of other forumers.

Setting all that aside, I wonder why we think it is so bad for people to not want the demographics around them to change, or to question any changes in the share of Canadian-born vs. immigrants (including those who don't speak much English or speak it as a second language). I don't think racism is required to explain why people sometimes don't like changes in these areas. Not everyone is gregarious or interested in learning about other cultures, and most people like to have a critical mass of amenities tailored to their own culture.

I can imagine a situation where someone grows up in a town and their peer group is gradually replaced by newcomers from another country. The person doesn't necessarily have anything against the newcomers per se, but they speak another language and mostly stick to themselves, or simply have different customs (e.g. go to some church or club that is not really open to people not from their culture). There can be some social drawbacks to this situation even before we start talking about things like housing prices (which are completely out of control in some cities).

Another angle is that it matters what happens to different sub-groups in a city. If we look at Vancouver, the population grew from about 2.1 million to about 2.4 million from 2006-2016. But the "European Canadian" population stayed the same or declined slightly (based on figures from here and here; I think the 2006 numbers don't include aboriginals, which are around 3% of the city).

Canada's non-visible-minority population grew during this period (due to natural increase). Metro Vancouver's a destination for visible minorities, but it's seemingly failing to retain and attract non-visible-minorities. There might similarly be a small but growing exodus of local-born visible minorities but I don't have numbers for that. I also have a feeling that there's an influx of Canadians who try to make a go of it in Vancouver and leave after a few years of living in a basement apartment.

To me the most obvious explanation of these overall trends is that Vancouver's standard of living is getting worse compared to the rest of North America, but it's still good compared to a lot of places in Asia, so we are preferentially getting a lot of migration from Asia. We also get a lot of real estate buyers and an unknown number of people who claim to live here for tax and immigration purposes but don't really. This probably isn't a great overall situation in terms of long-term outcomes for Vancouverites.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by someone123

I don't know if the other posters are racist or not, but it's hard to see this as anything other than a personal attack. It would be better to discuss the issues rather than the unknown motivations of other forumers.

Setting all that aside, I wonder why we think it is so bad for people to not want the demographics around them to change, or to question any changes in the share of Canadian-born vs. immigrants (including those who don't speak much English or speak it as a second language). I don't think racism is required to explain why people sometimes don't like changes in these areas. Not everyone is gregarious or interested in learning about other cultures, and most people like to have a critical mass of amenities tailored to their own culture.

I can imagine a situation where someone grows up in a town and their peer group is gradually replaced by newcomers from another country. The person doesn't necessarily have anything against the newcomers per se, but they speak another language and mostly stick to themselves, or simply have different customs (e.g. go to some church or club that is not really open to people not from their culture). There can be some social drawbacks to this situation even before we start talking about things like housing prices (which are completely out of control in some cities).

Another angle is that it matters what happens to different sub-groups in a city. If we look at Vancouver, the population grew from about 2.1 million to about 2.4 million from 2006-2016. But the "European Canadian" population stayed the same or declined slightly (based on figures from here and here; I think the 2006 numbers don't include aboriginals, which are around 3% of the city).

Canada's non-visible-minority population grew during this period (due to natural increase). Metro Vancouver's a destination for visible minorities, but it's seemingly failing to retain and attract non-visible-minorities. There might similarly be a small but growing exodus of local-born visible minorities but I don't have numbers for that. I also have a feeling that there's an influx of Canadians who try to make a go of it in Vancouver and leave after a few years of living in a basement apartment.

To me the most obvious explanation of these overall trends is that Vancouver's standard of living is getting worse compared to the rest of North America, but it's still good compared to a lot of places in Asia, so we are preferentially getting a lot of migration from Asia. We also get a lot of real estate buyers and an unknown number of people who claim to live here for tax and immigration purposes but don't really. This probably isn't a great overall situation in terms of long-term outcomes for Vancouverites.

Good post - even if controversial in today's Canada.

I don't understand why it's perfectly OK to say that it's undesirable to have not enough non-Europeans in a community (and therefore too many people of European origin), but on the other hand it's NOT OK to say there aren't enough people of European origin (and therefore implying that there are too many non-Europeans).

[giallo]

Originally Posted by someone123

I don't know if the other posters are racist or not, but it's hard to see this as anything other than a personal attack. It would be better to discuss the issues rather than the unknown motivations of other forumers.

Setting all that aside, I wonder why we think it is so bad for people to not want the demographics around them to change, or to question any changes in the share of Canadian-born vs. immigrants (including those who don't speak much English or speak it as a second language). I don't think racism is required to explain why people sometimes don't like changes in these areas. Not everyone is gregarious or interested in learning about other cultures, and most people like to have a critical mass of amenities tailored to their own culture.

I can imagine a situation where someone grows up in a town and their peer group is gradually replaced by newcomers from another country. The person doesn't necessarily have anything against the newcomers per se, but they speak another language and mostly stick to themselves, or simply have different customs (e.g. go to some church or club that is not really open to people not from their culture). There can be some social drawbacks to this situation even before we start talking about things like housing prices (which are completely out of control in some cities).

Another angle is that it matters what happens to different sub-groups in a city. If we look at Vancouver, the population grew from about 2.1 million to about 2.4 million from 2006-2016. But the "European Canadian" population stayed the same or declined slightly (based on figures from here and here; I think the 2006 numbers don't include aboriginals, which are around 3% of the city).

Canada's non-visible-minority population grew during this period (due to natural increase). Metro Vancouver's a destination for visible minorities, but it's seemingly failing to retain and attract non-visible-minorities. There might similarly be a small but growing exodus of local-born visible minorities but I don't have numbers for that. I also have a feeling that there's an influx of Canadians who try to make a go of it in Vancouver and leave after a few years of living in a basement apartment.

To me the most obvious explanation of these overall trends is that Vancouver's standard of living is getting worse compared to the rest of North America, but it's still good compared to a lot of places in Asia, so we are preferentially getting a lot of migration from Asia. We also get a lot of real estate buyers and an unknown number of people who claim to live here for tax and immigration purposes but don't really. This probably isn't a great overall situation in terms of long-term outcomes for Vancouverites.

Good point. I shouldn't have written it like that.

I don't think there's anything wrong for wanting a place to stay as it was (nostalgia is a powerful thing), but it's not realistic, especially in a country like Canada and a city like Vancouver - both of which survive and thrive on immigrants. A hyperbolic statement about Vancouver when applied to housing prices can make some sense, but when the demographic conversation rears its head, I have no time for it.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by someone123

I don't know if the other posters are racist or not, but it's hard to see this as anything other than a personal attack. It would be better to discuss the issues rather than the unknown motivations of other forumers.

Setting all that aside, I wonder why we think it is so bad for people to not want the demographics around them to change, or to question any changes in the share of Canadian-born vs. immigrants (including those who don't speak much English or speak it as a second language). I don't think racism is required to explain why people sometimes don't like changes in these areas. Not everyone is gregarious or interested in learning about other cultures, and most people like to have a critical mass of amenities tailored to their own culture.

I can imagine a situation where someone grows up in a town and their peer group is gradually replaced by newcomers from another country. The person doesn't necessarily have anything against the newcomers per se, but they speak another language and mostly stick to themselves, or simply have different customs (e.g. go to some church or club that is not really open to people not from their culture). There can be some social drawbacks to this situation even before we start talking about things like housing prices (which are completely out of control in some cities).

Another angle is that it matters what happens to different sub-groups in a city. If we look at Vancouver, the population grew from about 2.1 million to about 2.4 million from 2006-2016. But the "European Canadian" population stayed the same or declined slightly (based on figures from here and here; I think the 2006 numbers don't include aboriginals, which are around 3% of the city).

Canada's non-visible-minority population grew during this period (due to natural increase). Metro Vancouver's a destination for visible minorities, but it's seemingly failing to retain and attract non-visible-minorities. There might similarly be a small but growing exodus of local-born visible minorities but I don't have numbers for that. I also have a feeling that there's an influx of Canadians who try to make a go of it in Vancouver and leave after a few years of living in a basement apartment.

To me the most obvious explanation of these overall trends is that Vancouver's standard of living is getting worse compared to the rest of North America, but it's still good compared to a lot of places in Asia, so we are preferentially getting a lot of migration from Asia. We also get a lot of real estate buyers and an unknown number of people who claim to live here for tax and immigration purposes but don't really. This probably isn't a great overall situation in terms of long-term outcomes for Vancouverites.

The way that you present the issue sounds quite similar to discussions of gentrification.

Originally Posted by Acajack

Good post - even if controversial in today's Canada.

I don't understand why it's perfectly OK to say that it's undesirable to have not enough non-Europeans in a community (and therefore too many people of European origin), but on the other hand it's NOT OK to say there aren't enough people of European origin (and therefore implying that there are too many non-Europeans).

I'm actually skeptical that you don't understand such reactions given your high intelligence and apparent cultural awareness. It isn't anything more complicated than the Western world's history of subjugating, excluding or marginalizing those of non-European origin, which raises the suspicions that an area dominated by European descendants has remained so through the exclusion of others (either active discrimination or passive unwelcoming attitudes), while someone saying that there aren't enough people of European origin in an area raises the suspicion that the statement indicates a veiled desire for such exclusion. We're simply not far enough past the era when such discrimination was common to be rid of the baggage. Therefore everything ends up being judged against that backdrop, even though it obviously isn't always accurate. Can you honestly say this is something you weren't aware of?

[someone123]

Originally Posted by giallo

I don't think there's anything wrong for wanting a place to stay as it was (nostalgia is a powerful thing), but it's not realistic, especially in a country like Canada and a city like Vancouver - both of which survive and thrive on immigrants.

I don't have strong opinions but I think the pendulum may have actually swung too far against the nostalgic people. We tell people to 🞵🞵🞵🞵 it up and get used to it because that's the way it is but really these are policy decisions. Canada could let in 0 immigrants per year, 300,000, or 3,000,000. We could pick a number that maximizes economic growth or we could pick one that is best for the well-being of average people. I don't think those numbers are the same.

Elites tend to favour "empire building" (large GDP) while average people value a high median standard of living (large GDP per capita plus equitable distribution).

It takes a big toll on people to be priced out of a city and have to move or live in substandard housing, forego having kids or relationships, or to be stuck with precarious work because of limited worker protections and high competition for jobs.

I have a feeling things are worse than they seem and are going to continue to worsen before they get better. Young people are the hardest hit by these changes and they have really bad prospects today. A huge percentage of them report that they're stressed financially and psychologically; more than older people and more than previous generations at the same age.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by cornholio

Statistics speak for them selves. People dont immigrate to Canada from Europe and likely more emigrate from Canada to Europe now. .

I highly doubt this is the case.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

The way that you present the issue sounds quite similar to discussions of gentrification.

Yep. I would say that I have sympathy for anybody who is caught on the wrong side of gentrification, regardless of their skin colour or country of birth (which these days sometimes means having an unusual amount of sympathy for Canadians!), and that Vancouver does a terrible job of broadly ensuring a good quality of life for all of its residents.

There is a huge amount of money sloshing around in the Vancouver property market. Not everyone can live in a mansion but it isn't necessary for anybody to be priced out of the city. The problem is that we have a system that allocates ~95% of the gains to property owners, 5% to a few token sympathetic groups (e.g. through boutique public housing projects for particularly disadvantaged people), and ~0% to everyone else. People in other countries with money have noticed this and gotten in on the ~95% allocation gravy. People without money cannot participate.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

I'm actually skeptical that you don't understand such reactions given your high intelligence and apparent cultural awareness. It isn't anything more complicated than the Western world's history of subjugating, excluding or marginalizing those of non-European origin, which raises the suspicions that an area dominated by European descendants has remained so through the exclusion of others (either active discrimination or passive unwelcoming attitudes), while someone saying that there aren't enough people of European origin in an area raises the suspicion that the statement indicates a veiled desire for such exclusion. We're simply not far enough past the era when such discrimination was common to be rid of the baggage. Therefore everything ends up being judged against that backdrop, even though it obviously isn't always accurate. Can you honestly say this is something you weren't aware of?

Obviously I am aware of all that.

While I admittedly went about it in a circuitous way, my real question is whether or not a contemporary double-standard - even if justified by historical wrongs - is really going to make things better.

I am not convinced at all.

[ssiguy]

I couldn't care less about race or colour but I do care about people's cultural background. Simply put, I find some cultures far more appealing then others. I would take Japanese over Koreans or Chinese any day of the week and I don't give a damn who knows it. I'm not talking individuals here as that very much depends on the person but culturally.

All cultures have their good and bad points but give me a person who doesn't like one culture more {or less} than another and I will give you a pathological liar. There is a reason why people who go to Europe go to the Western part and not the Eastern or Russia just as there is a reason why people go on vacation to Japan and Thailand and not China or Korea. Just look at Canada, there is a reason why Canadians and Canada are viewed very well internationally while Americans aren't.

[someone123]

Is it really common for people to worry about race (or really just the genetic component thereof), or culture?

White supremacists exist but they are not that common. I think there are a lot of English or French speaking Canadians who would feel uncomfortable or at least a bit unhappy living in an area where most people speak a different language, the businesses cater to different tastes, etc. I don't think there are a lot of people who would have similar reservations about just skin colour or ancestry.

My impression is that social groups tend to fall along cultural lines too. In Vancouver you'll see the group of students who speak Mandarin, and a group that speaks English. The Canadian-born person of Chinese ancestry who speaks ~0 Mandarin ends up in the English group, not the Mandarin group. These groups form based on culture more than ancestry.

[ssiguy]

^^^ after just pushing the `reply` button, I realized I was on the wrong thread. Can a mode please switch that comment over to the `Justin Trudeau`s Canada` thread please......................................D`oh!

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by giallo

Good point. I shouldn't have written it like that.

I don't think there's anything wrong for wanting a place to stay as it was (nostalgia is a powerful thing), but it's not realistic, especially in a country like Canada and a city like Vancouver - both of which survive and thrive on immigrants. A hyperbolic statement about Vancouver when applied to housing prices can make some sense, but when the demographic conversation rears its head, I have no time for it.

You cannot discuss money laundering and the housing market without talking about the Mainland Chinese component to it. Who do you think is responsible, Swiss money launderers?

This is a long article from Global today, but well worth reading. The scale of the problem is mind-boggling:

How Chinese gangs are laundering drug money through Vancouver real estate

Criminal syndicates that control chemical factories in China’s booming Guangdong province are shipping narcotics, including fentanyl, to Vancouver, washing the drug sales in British Columbia’s casinos and high-priced real estate, and transferring laundered funds back to Chinese factories to repeat this deadly trade cycle, a Global News investigation shows.


The flow of narcotics and chemical precursors — and a rising death count in western Canada caused by synthetic opioids — is driven by sophisticated organized crime groups known as Triads...

...These secret banks have developed for centuries on China’s southern coast, police intelligence reports say. They consist of family members spread across Chinese communities worldwide. They can move money, drugs and commodities around the world, without having to send funds across national borders. The banks maintain reserves of various currencies at locations worldwide, taking deposits in one area, and paying out withdrawals in another.

In order to function, the underground banks need Triad-friendly lawyers, bankers, casino operators, and 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 junket operators in Hong Kong, Macau and Vancouver, Langdale’s report says...

...Meanwhile, some of the Chinese VIP gamblers identified in B.C. Lottery Corp. documents obtained by Global News, are alleged to be involved in B.C. wildlife trafficking cases. B.C.’s Ministry of Environment would not disclose documents about these cases, citing potential harm to police investigations.

The Mainland China Triads also have the ability to trade illegal migrants around the world, Langdale says. CBSA documents obtained by Global point to a case of forged documents that likely is connected to Triad schemes, Clement said.

The documents say that in April 2016, border agents at a Montreal airport seized about 5,600 counterfeit foil holograms from China, designed to authenticate Quebec health insurance cards. This case concerns the CBSA, an intelligence brief says, because the forgeries could facilitate immigration frauds that threaten Canada’s national security...

https://globalnews.ca/news/4149818/vancouver-cautionary-tale-money-laundering-drugs/

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by cornholio

Statistics speak for them selves. People dont immigrate to Canada from Europe and likely more emigrate from Canada to Europe now.

This is hogwash. I work with these statistics all the time, and you are flat-out wrong.

[osmo]

Originally Posted by whatnext

You cannot discuss money laundering and the housing market without talking about the Mainland Chinese component to it. Who do you think is responsible, Swiss money launderers?

This is a long article from Global today, but well worth reading. The scale of the problem is mind-boggling:

How Chinese gangs are laundering drug money through Vancouver real estate

Criminal syndicates that control chemical factories in China’s booming Guangdong province are shipping narcotics, including fentanyl, to Vancouver, washing the drug sales in British Columbia’s casinos and high-priced real estate, and transferring laundered funds back to Chinese factories to repeat this deadly trade cycle, a Global News investigation shows.


The flow of narcotics and chemical precursors — and a rising death count in western Canada caused by synthetic opioids — is driven by sophisticated organized crime groups known as Triads...

...These secret banks have developed for centuries on China’s southern coast, police intelligence reports say. They consist of family members spread across Chinese communities worldwide. They can move money, drugs and commodities around the world, without having to send funds across national borders. The banks maintain reserves of various currencies at locations worldwide, taking deposits in one area, and paying out withdrawals in another.

In order to function, the underground banks need Triad-friendly lawyers, bankers, casino operators, and 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 junket operators in Hong Kong, Macau and Vancouver, Langdale’s report says...

...Meanwhile, some of the Chinese VIP gamblers identified in B.C. Lottery Corp. documents obtained by Global News, are alleged to be involved in B.C. wildlife trafficking cases. B.C.’s Ministry of Environment would not disclose documents about these cases, citing potential harm to police investigations.

The Mainland China Triads also have the ability to trade illegal migrants around the world, Langdale says. CBSA documents obtained by Global point to a case of forged documents that likely is connected to Triad schemes, Clement said.

The documents say that in April 2016, border agents at a Montreal airport seized about 5,600 counterfeit foil holograms from China, designed to authenticate Quebec health insurance cards. This case concerns the CBSA, an intelligence brief says, because the forgeries could facilitate immigration frauds that threaten Canada’s national security...

https://globalnews.ca/news/4149818/vancouver-cautionary-tale-money-laundering-drugs/

^^^ Rinsing drug money through Real Estate is as old as time. Where are the articles that point to the volume of B.C. weed money that gets rinsed through real estate? All of the 'off-the-path' dudes I grew up with who decided to make their money, in more, err... umm... green and exotic ways ... all rinsed their money through B.C. real estate - Condo Penthouses were the preferred method. Already hundreds of millions of B.C. bud money that gets rinsed and washed through Real estate and B.C. officials have looked the other way for decades. Way back in the late 90s people were sounding the alarm on drug money laundering way before the Chinese ever got fully involved in the illicit scene. Within the early 00s a shift with Chinese and South Asian gangs was getting involved.Now it just seems it has branched out to the outward networks form these culture groups but the problem has been around for a long time now.