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Originally Posted by Alpine
I wonder if the dominance of the Shinkansen has something to do with it. Out of the 30.1 million trips between the Tokyo and Nagoya areas in 2015-16, only about 600,000 or so were by plane; Shinkansen has a 92.9% market share in that corridor (calculated from this spreadsheet of Japanese government data and some fiddling in Excel). |
Well, that's partly because people just don't fly when they can take the train and be downtown-downtown in 90 minutes. That being said, Shinkansen is not connected to either airport... so transferring is still annoying.
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Maybe direct flights to NGO just can't compete with mainline flights to NRT/HND and taking a Shinkansen to Nagoya. The same thing happened to HND-SDJ flights after the Tohoku Shinkansen started in 1982.
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Yes... but again, Sendai is really close to Tokyo... and it doesn't make sense (even with Japan's crazy efficient bus-like airline service, it's still less convenient). Also, Japanese people are culturally accustomed to paying extra for convenience and it's hard to argue that.
However, in both these cases... flying and then transferring to Shinkansen is really inconvenient.... particularly if you're flying on AC or JL... which only fly YVR-NRT (AC had a YVR-HND flight, but didn't stick it out and now ANA has that flight). Particularly keeping in mind that flights into HND are mostly evening flights... which means by the time you actually get to your destination after transferring to local train, then bullet train, then local train again is probably unreasonably late.
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And now, with the Hokkaido Shinkansen crossing the Seikan Tunnel and reaching Hakodate, the HND-AOJ (JAL used to fly 6x roundtrips daily between Haneda and Aomori) and HND-HKD markets have vanished; why fly when you can take the train directly? Currently, Haneda-New Chitose (Sapporo) is the busiest airline route in the world; wait until the Hokkaido Shinkansen reaches Sapporo in 2031 and you might see the Haneda-Sapporo route shrink dramatically.
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I don't think you'll see HND-CTS shrink that much, to be honest. The Hokkaido Shinkansen will still be 4–5 hours, which is much longer than the Tokaido line, which is 2h 30m and TYO–OSA still flights leaving every hour (mostly HND-ITM, with 3x HND-KIX). In addition, two LCCs operate another 6–7 flights between the less convenient airports KIX and NRT.
I think the REAL disruptor will be the Chuo Maglev Line which is slated to open in 2027 between Shinagawa and Nagoya. That will decrease the Nagoya–Tokyo trip to 40 minutes.
I think this has some PRETTY serious implications for NGO, to be honest. It will be almost faster to take the train to Shinagawa in Tokyo (40 minutes ) than to take the train to NGO Airport ( 35 minutes away ).
So, if you're in Nagoya, you could legitimately choose to fly out of HND or NGO. HND essentially becomes another airport option for Nagoyans. Conversely, NGO would be closer to West Tokyo than Narita. The FASTEST train between Shinagawa(Tokyo) and NRT is currently 80 minutes. You could probably get to NGO in 75 minutes.
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