Confederation Line (Stage 1) | In Service 1.0

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

Well, Stage 2 is already on the move.

Another important question would be regarding Stage 3, "3b", or even 4.

On the move but far from shovels in the ground and the last PC government that arrived to "clean house" cancelled the Eglinton subway which was already under construction.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

Well, Stage 2 is already on the move.

Another important question would be regarding Stage 3, "3b", or even 4.

Delaying Stage 3, 3b or 4 while not ideal, would not be as devastating to Ottawa as delaying or cancelling Stage 2.

Stage 2 is needed to improve the efficiency of the transit system in Ottawa. We need to move all those passengers traveling on the main trunks of the Transitway from 50-100 seat buses to 300-400 pax LRVs.

The gains made in Stage 3 or 4 won't be anywhere close to the gains in Stage 1 and Stage 2.

[acottawa]

The next government (whether Liberal or Conservative) will have to decide what to do with the mountain of spending promises that have not gotten beyond the photo-op stage. I suspect a good number will have to be reviewed or modified.

Trim Road, in particular, is probably facing a significant risk. It was never in the city's plan, the city isn't paying anything, so the province has little incentive to match the federal contribution.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Delaying Stage 3, 3b or 4 while not ideal, would not be as devastating to Ottawa as delaying or cancelling Stage 2.

Agreed.

Stage 2 is needed to improve the efficiency of the transit system in Ottawa. We need to move all those passengers traveling on the main trunks of the Transitway from 50-100 seat buses to 300-400 pax LRVs.

It depends which section of stage 2 you are talking about. My feeling is Stage 2 West is critical from this perspective (at least as far as Lincoln Fields) and will result in a majority of the operating cost savings.

Stage 2 East will likely also result in significant operating cost savings (at least as far as Place d'Orleans), but it will be less than Stage 1 West.

However, I believe Stage 2 South will not result in any significant cost savings (it will possibly result in an increase in operating cost) as most trains will likely have fewer than 100 passengers south of South Keys for the next few decades and thus each will only replace one bus.

The gains made in Stage 3 or 4 won't be anywhere close to the gains in Stage 1 and Stage 2.

Extensions to Terry Fox and Fallowfield would still result in significant savings as they will greatly reduce the number of transit vehicles driving through the Greenbelt. Extensions beyond those stations will follow the law of diminishing returns and thus loose importance.

As for an extension to Gatineau, it gets kind of messy as some of the cost savings would be to the STO, which the Ontario government has no interest in.

[Buggys]

Do you think Stage 2 will necessitate the building of the 2nd maintenance facility (currently planned to be beside the Palladium), therefore Western LRT past Bayshore to Kanata?

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Delaying Stage 3, 3b or 4 while not ideal, would not be as devastating to Ottawa as delaying or cancelling Stage 2.

Stage 2 is needed to improve the efficiency of the transit system in Ottawa. We need to move all those passengers traveling on the main trunks of the Transitway from 50-100 seat buses to 300-400 pax LRVs.

The gains made in Stage 3 or 4 won't be anywhere close to the gains in Stage 1 and Stage 2.

Good point. Nonetheless, I would expect (or hope at least) that voters in Ottawa would care about the issue.

[613Steve]

A second maintenance facility is planned for Moodie. That was part of the reason why the extension from Bayshore to Moodie was justified.

[zzptichka]

Originally Posted by Buggys

Do you think Stage 2 will necessitate the building of the 2nd maintenance facility (currently planned to be beside the Palladium), therefore Western LRT past Bayshore to Kanata?

2nd maintenance and storage facility is planned beside Moodie and is being built as part of stage 2.

[kmcamp]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

On the move but far from shovels in the ground and the last PC government that arrived to "clean house" cancelled the Eglinton subway which was already under construction.

Considering the fallout of the transit spending cuts in the 90s is the source of the GTA's capacity woes now and the cost of cancelling things in-flight (aka gas plants) is fresh in people's minds, I'm not too concerned they'll cancel Stage 2.

I'm sure big cuts will be inflicted elsewhere though.

[lrt's friend]

Operational cost savings should not be the main reason for rapid transit expansion. Service and capacity improvements should be the main reasons

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Operational cost savings should not be the main reason for rapid transit expansion. Service and capacity improvements should be the main reasons

Maybe they shouldn't, but they are.

[Kitchissippi]

Well, operational cost savings through technology and infrastructure improvements are better than outright service cuts to achieve the cost reduction. These days the ability to sustain service levels is considered an improvement.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Has any though been given to how a PC government could impact Stage 2?

I am a little concerned that Ford might prove as short-sighted as Hudak on this one.

There's a tendency for some Toronto-originating politicians to think that only the GTA really needs higher-order transit.

As 1overcosc mentioned, I don't think stage 2 is at risk. The contract will be awarded this year, with construction set to start in early 2019. Canceling it could cost taxpayers tens if not hundreds of millions. I would not oppose however, the PCs or a Mayoral candidate propose cancelling stage 2 of Trillium in order to either extend to Kanata (Conservative base) or double track and electrify Trillium (logic). But I don't think the PCs give a 🞵🞵🞵🞵 and Watson will probably win the election.

Stage 3 won't be on the table until next election.

What is at risk if the PCs take control of Queen's Park is the new Civic, the CHEO expansion, energy efficiency funding for our post-secondary institutions and possibly French services and health care in general.

In terms of the Civic, I don't think it's a huge deal. We're years away still. They can continue to work on the project and finalize the plans just before next election.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I wish somebody could pin down Ford or other PC leadership to get it on record whether they actually support Stage 2.

That's what I've been waiting for. CTV Ottawa interviewed Ford twice and only pressed on issues for which we already know his position (such as the carbon tax). Terrible journalism. They did the same with the other PC candidates.

[1overcosc]

My main worry is that Ottawa will find itself politically useless in this election cycle.

Ford heralds a populist shift in PC tone that will resonate well with blue collar workers and the low income which could give them the GTA breakthrough needed to win the election.. But Ottawa doesn't really have those demographics and the unpopularity of Ford among the middle class white collar groups that dominate Ottawa will lead to poor PC potential here. The NDP have limited traction here. So all 3 parties may well write Ottawa off as a Liberal hold. I could easily see a scenario where the Liberals continue to hold most of Ottawa even if they fall to 3rd place in the legislature. Thats not good for us. We just have to look back to McGuinty to see how neglected Ottawa can be when we're not politically important.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

My main worry is that Ottawa will find itself politically useless in this election cycle.

Ford heralds a populist shift in PC tone that will resonate well with blue collar workers and the low income which could give them the GTA breakthrough needed to win the election.. But Ottawa doesn't really have those demographics and the unpopularity of Ford among the middle class white collar groups that dominate Ottawa will lead to poor PC potential here. The NDP have limited traction here. So all 3 parties may well write Ottawa off as a Liberal hold. I could easily see a scenario where the Liberals continue to hold most of Ottawa even if they fall to 3rd place in the legislature. Thats not good for us. We just have to look back to McGuinty to see how neglected Ottawa can be when we're not politically important.

Ottawa Vanier and Ottawa South are obviously Liberal holds, and so is Ottawa Centre unless NDP numbers go up, but the Tories have traditionally done well in the rural-suburban parts of Ottawa when they win elections (they won 4 federal ridings in 2011, for example).

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

As 1overcosc mentioned, I don't think stage 2 is at risk. The contract will be awarded this year, with construction set to start in early 2019. Canceling it could cost taxpayers tens if not hundreds of millions. I would not oppose however, the PCs or a Mayoral candidate propose cancelling stage 2 of Trillium in order to either extend to Kanata (Conservative base) or double track and electrify Trillium (logic). But I don't think the PCs give a 🞵🞵🞵🞵 and Watson will probably win the election.

I'm not sure I follow. Bids haven't even been submitted and the contract isn't scheduled to be awarded until 4-6 months after the election.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Ottawa Vanier and Ottawa South are obviously Liberal holds, and so is Ottawa Centre unless NDP numbers go up, but the Tories have traditionally done well in the rural-suburban parts of Ottawa when they win elections (they won 4 federal ridings in 2011, for example).

Yeah.. But I think Ford changes the game and gives the Chairelli and Lalonde a lot more security than they normally would have in this situation.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Yeah.. But I think Ford changes the game and gives the Chairelli and Lalonde a lot more security than they normally would have in this situation.

Not sure "willing to vote for Harper but not for Ford" is a big demographic. There are good number of Ford's core demographic in the Ottawa suburbs and rural areas.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Not sure "willing to vote for Harper but not for Ford" is a big demographic.

Upper middle class who work in the private sector. That is a large portion of the western suburbs.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Not sure "willing to vote for Harper but not for Ford" is a big demographic. There are good number of Ford's core demographic in the Ottawa suburbs and rural areas.

Willing to vote for Harper in 2011 and not willing to vote for Ford in 2018 is actually probably your typical Ottawan.