Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[lio45]

Originally Posted by someone123

I think it is somewhat unfair that Canadians who pay taxes in another province might get treated the same way as someone who is living in another country and paying nothing at all. Then again a lot of the more domestic vacation property areas are outside of the areas mentioned in the recent budget.

Agreed. An Albertan with a vacation home in the mountains a few hours west of home is still contributing financially to funding BC with his federal taxes, some of which get spent in BC (say, when the Feds give that province $800+ million to help with the lumber industry) and would have the right to be pissed off at this.

They should not be placed in the exact same category as those Chinese who aren't paying a penny in income tax in this country.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Not sure if it's been posted nor if this is actually reliable, but perhaps a sign the NDP's budget plans are already working?

"Asking home prices fall by double digits in Metro Vancouver as BC budget begins to bite

By ThinkPol Staff

Asking prices for homes in Metro Vancouver are falling ‒ in one case by as much as 73% ‒ suggesting that budget measures announced by the NDP government to promote affordable housing by tackling rampant crime, corruption and speculation in the real estate market is beginning to work even before they come into force.

For example, the asking price for a home on the 10000 block of Seaword Court in Richmond’s Ironwood neighbourhood has dropped from the original listing price of $5,880,000 on February 14 to $1,588,000 today, data sent to ThinkPol by an industry insider show.

“This is just the tip of the iceberg,” the industry insider who sent ThinkPol the data said. “Many sellers are delisting and relisting to hide price falls and reset days on the market counter.”

"


https://thinkpol.ca/2018/02/24/home-prices-fall-73-metro-vancouver-bc-budget-begins-bite/

[240glt]

6 million to 1.5 ? Something's wacky there

I hope prices moderate in the Okanagan as well.

[geotag277]

https://www.remax.ca/bc/richmond-real-estate/na-10700-seaward-court-na-wp_id199337093-lst/

This one? The price seems in line with the neighbourhood and the assessed value (200k more than assessed, higher than average for the neighbourhood).

More likely the 6 mill was a price error.

Articles like this make it hard to take some of the commentary seriously. I remember after the foreign buyer tax went into effect, people were claiming 80% price drops. If that were actually true, housing would be affordable in Vancouver.

Instead, this relatively innocuous average Richmond property is still being listed for 1.5 MM.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by lio45

This should at the very least be a two tier approach. A level of property tax for people who pay income tax in both BC and Canada federally, then another level of property tax for people who only pay income tax in Canada federally, then another for those who pay no income tax in Canada at all.

One can only wonder if Notley hadn't been such a b!tch about BC's pipeline proposal if there would have been such an exemption. As it was, her actions didn't make BC or it's government disposed to give Albertans a break.

And despite the inevitable article about how Albertan vacation homes contribute to the economy of BC, there are many locals in the interior who resent the real estate price inflation caused by them.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Not sure if it's been posted nor if this is actually reliable, but perhaps a sign the NDP's budget plans are already working?

"Asking home prices fall by double digits in Metro Vancouver as BC budget begins to bite

By ThinkPol Staff

Asking prices for homes in Metro Vancouver are falling ‒ in one case by as much as 73% ‒ suggesting that budget measures announced by the NDP government to promote affordable housing by tackling rampant crime, corruption and speculation in the real estate market is beginning to work even before they come into force.

For example, the asking price for a home on the 10000 block of Seaword Court in Richmond’s Ironwood neighbourhood has dropped from the original listing price of $5,880,000 on February 14 to $1,588,000 today, data sent to ThinkPol by an industry insider show.

“This is just the tip of the iceberg,” the industry insider who sent ThinkPol the data said. “Many sellers are delisting and relisting to hide price falls and reset days on the market counter.”

"

https://thinkpol.ca/2018/02/24/home-prices-fall-73-metro-vancouver-bc-budget-begins-bite/

There's something off about that Richmond listing. Any realtor who thought it would go for $5.8 mil with no land assembly potential was on crack.

As to SFH prices, they had nowhere to go but down. Local income earners could no longer afford them and China had turned the screws on those illegally taking capital out of the country.

This might be why the NPA, traditionally Vancouver's civic party of west side homeowners is floating the idea of rezoning vast swaths of SFH lots to multifamily. They realize their traditional territory is increasingly hollowed out or populated by foreign nationals who can't vote. Might as well chase the increasingly important local Millennial voter, a la Justin Trudeau and leave land rich Boomers to their fate.

[ssiguy]

What make you say "if Notley hadn't been such a bitch"? I think Notley has been quite civilized over the whole affair.

Notely's responsibility is to serve and promote the best interests of Albertans and she is doing so, there is nothing "bitchy" about it.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by geotag277

https://www.remax.ca/bc/richmond-real-estate/na-10700-seaward-court-na-wp_id199337093-lst/

This one? The price seems in line with the neighbourhood and the assessed value (200k more than assessed, higher than average for the neighbourhood).

More likely the 6 mill was a price error.

Articles like this make it hard to take some of the commentary seriously. I remember after the foreign buyer tax went into effect, people were claiming 80% price drops. If that were actually true, housing would be affordable in Vancouver.

Instead, this relatively innocuous average Richmond property is still being listed for 1.5 MM.

$4,300 a year in property taxes for a SFH, even a ~2,500 sq ft one... and that's the British Columbian Resident tax rate, I'm assuming? That's far from cheap!

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

What make you say "if Notley hadn't been such a bitch"? I think Notley has been quite civilized over the whole affair.

Notely's responsibility is to serve and promote the best interests of Albertans and she is doing so, there is nothing "bitchy" about it.

Slapping a ban on BC wine with no basis other than the BC government saying they were going to "study" limiting diluted bitumen shipments makes her a b!tch in my books. Out of the whole kerfuffle, hers was the only action that was illegal under current law.

[cabotp]

Originally Posted by lio45

Agreed. An Albertan with a vacation home in the mountains a few hours west of home is still contributing financially to funding BC with his federal taxes, some of which get spent in BC (say, when the Feds give that province $800+ million to help with the lumber industry) and would have the right to be pissed off at this.

They should not be placed in the exact same category as those Chinese who aren't paying a penny in income tax in this country.

I'm fairly certain that most people who live and work in BC. Don't really care if someone from any other province or country gets financially hurt by this new tax. Something had to be done, no matter what the collateral damage might be.

[whatnext]

Evidence of mortgage fraud amid surging home prices and household debt has prompted S&P Global Ratings to lower a key risk metric for Canadian banks.

The credit ratings agency dropped its economic risk assessment by one notch due to evidence of residential-mortgage fraud at smaller Canadian banks, which could compound existing risks from the country’s hot housing market, according to a statement Friday. S&P lowered the Canadian banks’ economic risk level to 3 out of 10, with a higher number representing great risk, revising the trend to stable. That puts Canada in line with the U.S., but lower than the U.K. and Australia...

..The rating company pointed to a January report from Equifax Canada whose data suggested a 52 per cent rise in suspected fraudulent mortgage applications since 2013..
http://business.financialpost.com/news/f...mpts-sp-to-lower-canada-bank-risk-metric

[p_xavier]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Evidence of mortgage fraud amid surging home prices and household debt has prompted S&P Global Ratings to lower a key risk metric for Canadian banks.

The credit ratings agency dropped its economic risk assessment by one notch due to evidence of residential-mortgage fraud at smaller Canadian banks, which could compound existing risks from the country’s hot housing market, according to a statement Friday. S&P lowered the Canadian banks’ economic risk level to 3 out of 10, with a higher number representing great risk, revising the trend to stable. That puts Canada in line with the U.S., but lower than the U.K. and Australia...

..The rating company pointed to a January report from Equifax Canada whose data suggested a 52 per cent rise in suspected fraudulent mortgage applications since 2013..
http://business.financialpost.com/news/f...mpts-sp-to-lower-canada-bank-risk-metric

WTH? If you found evidence of fraud, wouldn't you put the risk higher?

[geotag277]

Risk went from 2 to 3 - so higher risk. In this case "lowering the score" means giving it a worse score. Poorly worded.

[whatnext]

Wouldn't it be sweet of this symbol of the wretched excess of Vancouver's property market and foreign buyers helped take down the Trumps!

US counterintelligence officials are scrutinizing one of Ivanka Trump's international business deals, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

The FBI has been looking into the negotiations and financing surrounding Trump International Hotel and Tower in Vancouver, according to a US official and a former US official. The scrutiny could be a hurdle for the first daughter as she tries to obtain a full security clearance in her role as adviser to President Donald Trump...

...The $360 million project, which features 147 guest rooms and 217 luxury residences, quickly became a magnet for foreign buyers.

In the case of Vancouver, it's not clear why investigators are examining this particular deal. The timing of the deal -- as one of the few Trump-branded properties to open since Trump took office -- could be of interest. The flow of foreign money, either from the developer or international condo buyers, could also be sparking scrutiny....(bold mine)

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/01/politics/ivanka-trump-fbi-investigation/index.html

[dleung]

We're ALL the 1%



http://www.vancouversun.com/story.html?id=16688701

[sunsetmountainland]

So any concrete data on when the market is going to crash?

[sunsetmountainland]

I mean really? Even with a 20% tax on foreign buyers, with a Trudeau government that has a falling Canadian dollar because of his "the budget will balance itself theory" how long before a 50 cent dollar on the U.S. dollar?

[theman23]

Originally Posted by sunsetmountainland

I mean really? Even with a 20% tax on foreign buyers, with a Trudeau government that has a falling Canadian dollar because of his "the budget will balance itself theory" how long before a 50 cent dollar on the U.S. dollar?

The Canadian dollar hasn’t dropped under the Trudeau government.

[sunsetmountainland]

Originally Posted by theman23

The Canadian dollar hasn’t dropped under the Trudeau government.

Just you watch it! His missteps have been huge, he is doing great damage to the Canadian brand. He promised deficits of 10 billion dollars not 20 billion dollars. I can foresee the Canadian brand being downgraded under Trudeau. He is a huge liability. Just you watch him destroy our country!

[theman23]

I don’t know, I usually don’t take predictions of the future seriously from people who have no grasp of the present or past.

But I do find it a bit odd how delighted you are at the thought of Trudeau “destroying” this country. Combined with your broken English, I have to wonder exactly what your stake is in Canada?