Halifax Population & Growth

[someone123]

The 2016 estimate is out for the Halifax CMA. Up 8,200 people to 425,900.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/demo05a-eng.htm

[q12]

Originally Posted by someone123

The 2016 estimate is out for the Halifax CMA. Up 8,200 people to 425,900.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/demo05a-eng.htm

Even though this is based on the 2011 census, the growth estimate of about 2% is excellent. We should currently be estimated to be over 430,000 at this point in 2017 (March).



Halifax should be over 45% of the population of Nova Scotia as of 2017.

[fenwick16]

Originally Posted by q12

Even though this is based on the 2011 census, the growth estimate of about 2% is excellent. We should currently be estimated to be over 430,000 at this point in 2017 (March).



Halifax should be over 45% of the population of Nova Scotia as of 2017.

Excellent. I figured the city was growing faster than the census numbers indicated.

However, just to be picky, I think the growth rate over 3 years, based on the estimated numbers, compounded annually is 1.25% (which is still good). And Nova Scotia will be getting a bigger share of immigrants in the coming years, which under today's lower birth rates across Canada, is necessary to grow the population.

On the other hand, the growth rate from 2015 - 1016 is around 2% (which seems likely since Halifax attracted significantly more immigrants in 2016 than in previous years)

[someone123]

Originally Posted by fenwick16

On the other hand, the growth rate from 2015 - 1016 is around 2% (which seems likely since Halifax attracted significantly more immigrants in 2016 than in previous years)

During the 1940's, Halifax added 40,000 people and during the 1950's it added just over 60,000 (growing by almost 40%, and nearly doubling from 1940-1960). 2% per year is a much lower growth rate than in those times but 8,200 in one year may be one of the largest or the largest ever absolute change.

As you mentioned immigration rates are going up, partly because Nova Scotia's provincial nomination allotment has been increased. There's some reason to think that a higher growth rate will continue.

I also think it makes sense for Halifax to be a popular destination for Canadians, particularly younger Canadians looking for space to start families. Toronto and Vancouver are very expensive and Alberta is not booming as much as it was. Halifax has a good mix of affordability, job opportunities, amenities, character, and a good natural setting.

[IanWatson]

Originally Posted by someone123

During the 1940's, Halifax added 40,000 people and during the 1950's it added just over 60,000 (growing by almost 40%, and nearly doubling from 1940-1960). 2% per year is a much lower growth rate than in those times but 8,200 in one year may be one of the largest or the largest ever absolute change.

I'm much happier to see a slow-but-steady growth rate than a boom-and-bust one. It allows for continued reinvestment in our buildings, services, and infrastructure without the need to scramble.

[fenwick16]

Originally Posted by someone123

The 2016 estimate is out for the Halifax CMA. Up 8,200 people to 425,900.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/demo05a-eng.htm

I have to question some of the statistics. Places such as Edmonton, Calgary and Saskatoon have slowed population increase since the oil price decline of Jan 2015 and Statistics Canada labour statistics indicate that these communities are now growing at about a 1.5% growth rate. However, the Statistics Canada estimates for these communities still seems to be based on over 3% growth rates for 2015 - 2016. This alternate source shows at 1.1% growth rate for Calgary in 2015 and 2.3% increase in 2016 http://www.calgaryeconomicdevelopment.com/research-and-reports/demographics-lp/demographics/

I have to wonder about the Statistics Canada methodology and how accurate it is.

On the other hand, Halifax probably really has shown a significant population rate increase based on the influx of new immigrants, many from Syria (hopefully most will stay in the Halifax area).

[someone123]

Originally Posted by fenwick16

I have to wonder about the Statistics Canada methodology and how accurate it is.

On the other hand, Halifax probably really has shown a significant population rate increase based on the influx of new immigrants, many from Syria (hopefully most will stay in the Halifax area).

It is true that there are major inconsistencies. The population estimates will be revised based on the 2016 numbers, the census figures will be revised with undercounts, and you can never really know the exact population.

I just think of each of these as pieces of data that add to an overall imperfect picture. It is probable that the population growth rate in Halifax is in the 1-2% per year range, which is a good level, and the economy seems to be doing well.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by IanWatson

I'm much happier to see a slow-but-steady growth rate than a boom-and-bust one. It allows for continued reinvestment in our buildings, services, and infrastructure without the need to scramble.

Historically there wasn't much of a boom-and-bust cycle in Halifax. It's not clear that the city has ever lost population in the modern era. The 3-4% per year of the 1940's and 50's boom times were hard for the city to handle but much more moderate than what some other cities saw in earlier decades (Winnipeg, a true boom town, tripled in population from 1901-1911). I think 1-2% is moderate and could be accommodated well.

Halifax has room for infill development and a lot of the new growth seems to be filling out the urban core and larger urban area. This growth might make the city work better in the long run, and counterbalance older exurban development.

From a provincial and regional perspective it would be good for Halifax to grow faster than what was typical during the last decade. A bigger city would improve Nova Scotia's finances and make it easier to carry rural areas with older populations.

As far as the Maritimes as a whole go, there are a lot of amenities that are only going to be viable in a larger Halifax area if they are to exist at all. It makes a lot of sense to push for more growth in the city and its institutions (like Dalhousie, the airport, the port, convention space, etc.). People who want to live in a small and stable town have a lot of other options in the region. There is only really one option for building a larger metropolitan economy in the Maritimes.

[q12]

Halifax's population estimate for July 1st, 2017 is 431,701. Up 6,751 from 2016. Population increased about 15,000 in the past two years.


Population estimates by census metropolitan area, July 1, 2017 over 250,000

1. Toronto

   6,346,088

2. Montréal

   4,138,254

3. Vancouver

   2,571,262

4. Calgary

   1,488,841

5. Edmonton

   1,411,945

6. Ottawa

   1,377,016

7. Winnipeg

   825,713

8. Québec

   812,205

9. Hamilton

   787,195

10. Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo

    527,765

11. London

    521,756

12. Halifax

    431,701

13. St. Catharines–Niagara

    416,539

14. Oshawa

    402,399

15. Victoria

    377,414

16. Windsor

    344,747

17. Saskatoon

    323,809

18. Regina

    253,220

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/180213/t001a-eng.htm
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lan...Val=1&p1=1&p2=31&tabMode=dataTable&csid=

[someone123]

Hants County is also nearly 50% commuters to Halifax as of the 2016 census. If Hants were included the CMA population would be 475,000. It could hit 500,000 in just a few years, maybe around the time of the 2021 census.

[MonctonRad]

Here are the numbers in a regional context:

HALIFAX - 431,701 (410, 075 in 2013, +21,626 in 4 years, 5,406/yr growth rate)
ST. JOHN'S - 219,207 (208,795 in 2013, +10,412 in 4 years, 2,603/yr growth rate)
MONCTON - 152,169 (144,529 in 2013, +7,640 in 4 years, 1,910/yr growth rate)
SAINT JOHN - 128,541 (127,827 in 2013, +714 in 4 years, 178/yr growth rate)

So, Moncton continues to grow at a rate of about 2,000 per year. It would be reasonable to expect the metro population for Moncton to be ~ 158,000 in 2020 and between 175-180,000 by 2030. Halifax by 2020 should be 447,000 by 2020 and about 500,000 by 2030.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by someone123

Hants County is also nearly 50% commuters to Halifax as of the 2016 census. If Hants were included the CMA population would be 475,000. It could hit 500,000 in just a few years, maybe around the time of the 2021 census.

Same could be said for Shediac/Cap Pele with relation to Moncton. This could boost the Moncton CMA by 2021 to ~168,000. Add in Sackville (less likely since the main employer is local (Mt A) and the Moncton CMA in 2021 could approach 175,000

[q12]

Originally Posted by someone123

Hants County is also nearly 50% commuters to Halifax as of the 2016 census. If Hants were included the CMA population would be 475,000. It could hit 500,000 in just a few years, maybe around the time of the 2021 census.

Even a portion of Lunenburg county could be included.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Halifax by 2020 should be 447,000 by 2020 and about 500,000 by 2030.

If Halifax has grown by nearly 15,000 in the past 2 years and is able to keep this up it will have hit 450,000 possibly before 2020 and be over 500,000 by 2027 (without adding Hants and/or portions of Lunenburg counties).

[someone123]

Originally Posted by q12

Even a portion of Lunenburg county could be included.

I think the rule is that census divisions must be fully included or excluded, and I believe the cutoff is 50% for commuting.

I am not sure if Hants County is divided or is a single district. One side is already over 50% and the other is not. If Lunenburg is divided in multiple districts it's more likely the closer parts could be included

Most of the towns within an hour or so of Halifax are around 10% commuters. Along the near South Shore, a lot of people commute into Bridgwater.

It is hard to predict the future but I think this past year may turn out to be more typical of future years. Immigration reform has resulted in higher numbers that should stay that way for a while. The previous year was a bit higher than normal because of the influx of Syrian refugees, and before that immigration was lower because of caps that have since been raised.

[q12]

Originally Posted by someone123

It is hard to predict the future but I think this past year may turn out to be more typical of future years. Immigration reform has resulted in higher numbers that should stay that way for a while. The previous year was a bit higher than normal because of the influx of Syrian refugees, and before that immigration was lower because of caps that have since been raised.

There is an interesting trend developing beyond the international immigration to Halifax. I keep hearing of more stories of young people in larger cities like Toronto that are moving to Halifax because of quality of life and more affordable housing. This trend might start to give Halifax an unexpected boost in population in future years if it continues to market itself as attractive place to live for younger people and those starting families.

Interprovincial migration has typically been a drain on Nova Scotia’s population. From July 1, 2017 to September 30, 2017 there was a net inflow of 827 interprovincial migrants from Nova Scotia. This represents the largest net interprovincial migration since 2003.


https://novascotia.ca/finance/statistics/archive_news.asp?id=13441&dg=&df=&dto=,6f&dti=3

[Colin May]

Our house will become more valuable as more people realise they will never own a home in the GTA or in the Vancouver to Pemberton corridor.
The improvement in downtown Dartmouth is a result of one woman who took the risk to open the Interlude when others were dreaming of tall buildings and offshore oil and gas riches.

[TheNovaScotian]

Originally Posted by Colin May

The improvement in downtown Dartmouth is a result of one woman who took the risk to open the Interlude when others were dreaming of tall buildings and offshore oil and gas riches.

Really??

All it took was one lady with a dream of a good spa in the neighborhood and *poof* it was on the upward trend. I guess that's all it takes to change decades of decline. Not it's obvious logistical advantage and changing demographics? I expected more of a data driven conclusion from you on this one, Colin.

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by TheNovaScotian

Really??

All it took was one lady with a dream of a good spa in the neighborhood and *poof* it was on the upward trend. I guess that's all it takes to change decades of decline. Not it's obvious logistical advantage and changing demographics? I expected more of a data driven conclusion from you on this one, Colin.

She was a single mother and the business was not a spa, it was a hairdresser, and the spa came many years later after she bought the property next door. She struggled in the early years and during my time on Dartmouth council the clerk-treasurer told me privately that she was several years behind on the property taxes, telling me when I was out there seeking a focus on the downtown rather than Burnside. I told him to leave her alone and that she wasn't the only business in tax arrears. She came when others were leaving and when Hells Angels ran Portland Landing. TIBS came along 20 years later and because the press regarded TIBS as hipster heaven it has often been erroneously referenced as the point of resurgence,when it is really more a case of slow but steady improvement including the increase in commercial occupancy in Queens Square bringing hundreds of people into downtown.
We still have the same 3 seniors buildings and the group homes and the low income residents and then we have the crappy Lotus development which has caused serious health problems for an abutting owner.

[OldDartmouthMark]

When checking the weather this morning on the Weather Network website, they had one of their typical polls, this one entitled: "Other than the current province or territory you live in, where would be your next choice to call home?"

When I clicked on it, I was not surprised to see that British Columbia was #1 on the pie chart at 38%, but I was surprised that #2 was Nova Scotia (13%), followed by Alberta (9%) and PEI (8%).

http://https://www.theweathernetwork.com/poll/result/other-than-the-current-province-or-territory-you-live-in-where-would-be-your-next-choice-to-call-home/96598/

I imagine the results will change as more people 'vote', but this is how the pie chart looked this morning:



I find it interesting that NS and PEI would be so high in the rankings. It seems to support the increase in growth that we've seen recently.

[Keith P.]

The poll illustrates the overall ignorance of the populace. BC has areas with a decent climate but lots of rain in those spots while others are very snowy in the winter and still others are like deserts. The prairies have that same hot/cold split summer to winter while the east coast is a great place to live except for the climate. Interesting that NS is favored by more than 3 times the number of those who favor our neighbor NB. Canada really has no places that have San Diego-like good weather most of the year.