YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[nname]

So, it went from "we do not need remote stand this summer" earlier this year to "expanded remote stand operation with two locations and four regular flights." Last year there was only two flights. I wonder what's changed since then...

[s211]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

So I'd have to say outside of Asia, Vancouver, Sydney and Melbourne are by far the most connected to China.

And who has some of the most over-priced housing markets on the planet?

Thread derailed!

(No need to respond. I just had to get that out of my system.)

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by osirisboy

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/...nger-count-that-hit-24-1-million-in-2017

Article mentions 29 million passengers for 2020 also I like how Craig richmond acknowledges how it's "it's just weird" that there are no connections to South America. Hopefully we see some growth there

Although YVR hasn’t posted the full year 2017 stats on its website yet the article does state full year increase was 8.4% to 24.1 million, up 1.9 million total passengers. Sounds like his drive now is to get South American destinations. He specifically mentions Lima, Santiago and Buenos Aires (ala ye olde CP Air run).

[thenoflyzone]

It's not really weird why YVR doesn't have South American service. Same reason why SEA or DEN don't have any. O&D isn't strong enough, stage lengths are enormous (especially to GRU), and connections alone won't make the flight profitable. Airframe usage goes down significantly on a North America-South America run, which also doesn't help YVR's case.

Not saying YVR will never get any new flights to SA, but there are obstacles to overcome.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

It's not really weird why YVR doesn't have South American service. Same reason why SEA or DEN don't have any. O&D isn't strong enough, stage lengths are enormous (especially to GRU), and connections alone won't make the flight profitable. Airframe usage goes down significantly on a North America-South America run, which also doesn't help YVR's case.

Not saying YVR will never get any new flights to SA, but there are obstacles to overcome.

South America O&D is actually getting very strong. Possibly strong enough to warrant direct flights.... probably on the cusp of viability.
YVR’s best bet may be a fifth freedom link with an Asian carrier like CZ to MEX.

YVR-MEX has just exploded in the last two years... a good indication of strong markets to Latin America but the targets of LIM and SCL probably aren’t quite there yet.

[Gordon]

How about direct flights to South East Asia.

I'm surprised there will be more need for remote stand use this year seeing that there will be 1 extra gate (D59) & more use of D75.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Gordon

How about direct flights to South East Asia.

I'm surprised there will be more need for remote stand use this year seeing that there will be 1 extra gate (D59) & more use of D75.

SEA might be a bit hard as the TPAC tickets are very very cheap right now...

And not only there will be remote stand, they will need TWO this year. Last year they only need one (D59) and have two for backup (D60, E85). This year they need D60, D61, D62?

Still, that doesn't add up because AMS moved away from busiest time, and PR to YYZ no longer stops here... that compensate the increase from AC and HU...

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

South America O&D is actually getting very strong. Possibly strong enough to warrant direct flights.... probably on the cusp of viability.
YVR’s best bet may be a fifth freedom link with an Asian carrier like CZ to MEX.

YVR-MEX has just exploded in the last two years... a good indication of strong markets to Latin America but the targets of LIM and SCL probably aren’t quite there yet.

Not South America yet, but I still think we'll see COPA to PTY once they got their new 737MAX. YVR is outside of the range of their current fleet right now...

[excel]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

It's not really weird why YVR doesn't have South American service. Same reason why SEA or DEN don't have any. O&D isn't strong enough, stage lengths are enormous (especially to GRU), and connections alone won't make the flight profitable. Airframe usage goes down significantly on a North America-South America run, which also doesn't help YVR's case.

Not saying YVR will never get any new flights to SA, but there are obstacles to overcome.

I beg to differ. Between my classes at school and the customers at my job it is absolutely overwhelmed with Brazilians. They are coming up in ridiculous numbers with work/student/visit visas. BCIT is currently going down and recruiting students at at high schools. The majority of the Brazilians are from Sao Paulo so I'm sure the O/D for that route exists. The Colombians are also starting to come up in large numbers.

[casper]

Originally Posted by excel

I beg to differ. Between my classes at school and the customers at my job it is absolutely overwhelmed with Brazilians. They are coming up in ridiculous numbers with work/student/visit visas. BCIT is currently going down and recruiting students at at high schools. The majority of the Brazilians are from Sao Paulo so I'm sure the O/D for that route exists. The Colombians are also starting to come up in large numbers.

I wonder how much of the extra traffic is the "Trump" effect and how much of it would naturally have occurred.

Given the tight links between Japan and Brazil it would be interesting to see what develops especially as we add more and more flight to secondary destinations in Japan.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Sounds like his drive now is to get South American destinations. He specifically mentions Lima, Santiago and Buenos Aires (ala ye olde CP Air run).

What I do find "weird" is the fact that he didn't mention Sao Paulo, which is probably the largest SA market from YVR.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

It's not really weird why YVR doesn't have South American service. Same reason why SEA or DEN don't have any. O&D isn't strong enough, stage lengths are enormous (especially to GRU), and connections alone won't make the flight profitable. Airframe usage goes down significantly on a North America-South America run, which also doesn't help YVR's case.

Not saying YVR will never get any new flights to SA, but there are obstacles to overcome.

Several years back on this very thread, don't ask me to find it please; Johnny (if I'm correct) stated that he was both pleased and surprised at
how many O/D pax there were between YVR and Brasil. Apparently very large Japanese community in São Paulo. Only 44 miles further than via YYZ, from Tokyo. Could this work?

[SpongeG]

There are lots of Brazilians here, I befriended one, he didn't like that he has to fly to Toronto first, apparently many feel the same way. He said one of the reasons why they come to Canada is some famous Brazilian's daughter came here and had made a TV show or something about her time here and it really took off after that. He's been here at least 6 or 7 years now. Going from ESL school to university.

Youtube is full of vlogs from Brazilians on long extended stays in Canada. English schools are a thriving business in the city. Saudis are another large group, estimated to be in the 5000 range for students coming to Vancouver. I made a friend with one and he was saying after 911 Canada became the first choice for overseas studying. They get free money to go study abroad from the government.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

There are lots of Brazilians here, I befriended one, he didn't like that he has to fly to Toronto first, apparently many feel the same way. He said one of the reasons why they come to Canada is some famous Brazilian's daughter came here and had made a TV show or something about her time here and it really took off after that. He's been here at least 6 or 7 years now. Going from ESL school to university.

Youtube is full of vlogs from Brazilians on long extended stays in Canada. English schools are a thriving business in the city. Saudis are another large group, estimated to be in the 5000 range for students coming to Vancouver. I made a friend with one and he was saying after 911 Canada became the first choice for overseas studying. They get free money to go study abroad from the government.

This seems to add reason for a YVR-GRU flight. (It would connect with Asian, particularly Japanese, flight pax, I'm sure) For Saudi pax, IST would seem a good M.E.-YVR connexion point.

[nname]

Originally Posted by osirisboy

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/...nger-count-that-hit-24-1-million-in-2017

Article mentions 29 million passengers for 2020 also I like how Craig richmond acknowledges how it's "it's just weird" that there are no connections to South America. Hopefully we see some growth there

I watched the BOT presentation posted on twitter, and there's a talk about the creation of "East Apron Remote Stands" at the existing Jet Set parking lot that can hold up to 10 planes. I guess remote stands will be here to stay permanently.

[mezzanine]

Yeah, skimmed the BoT presentation.

-the "east apron remote stands" will be built where the jet set parking is currently. A novel thing here is the use of electric buses. On the diagram below it will be built on the lot east of pier f:


source

-speaking of pier f, it showed some brief conceptuals of the new pier. work will get underway soon.
-full steam ahead for pier d, as with the new parking an utilities building.
-craig richmond really talked up flight banking and used AC's australia bank as an example in his presentation. IMO I suspect AC is making a lot of hay with east coast transfer traffic to australia; to that end i hope that IAD can be a future add. i hope even adding SIN to the oceania bank may become feasible.
-YVR is also gunning for a south american flight. if growth to MEX is any indicator as craig richmond points out, this would be a natural next step.
-not sure why they pulled the conceptuals for the new parking and central utilities from YVR;s site, but here is a re-post from a few pages back:


new parking expansion is to the left of the red elevated walkway. The central utlities is the teal building further left.

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

It's not really weird why YVR doesn't have South American service. Same reason why SEA or DEN don't have any. O&D isn't strong enough, stage lengths are enormous (especially to GRU), and connections alone won't make the flight profitable. Airframe usage goes down significantly on a North America-South America run, which also doesn't help YVR's case.

Not saying YVR will never get any new flights to SA, but there are obstacles to overcome.

I dunno, chinese airlines have subsidies that make it more immune to economics, but there are not enough 5th freedoms from canada for Chinese airlines. YVR is playing a balancing game with lobbying for more fifth freedom rights for chinese airlines and keeping AC happy for now. At least until WS gets its 787s.

I dunno if CA has considered moving its 5th freedom flight to havana from montreal to europe and using the freed-up 5th freedom leg to serve south america from YVR.

Of course AC can step up, maybe to LIM/SCE but we will see.

Chinese airlines are turning their focus to Latin America at the direction of their government, which wants a global presence from its airlines. Air China serves São Paulo and Havana (which it considers part of Latin America), and in Apr-2017 China Southern launched Mexico City as a tag from Vancouver.
....
Growing examples of Chinese airline service to Latin America reflect a number of themes in Chinese aviation: profit is hardly the sole metric to evaluate value from an airline; there is a core central role of the government in airline planning; and there is a growing confidence of Chinese airlines to fly nearly anywhere.
...
With limited opportunities to fly nonstop from China to Latin America, intermediate stopover points will be used for most Chinese airline services. This creates an opportunity for airports and countries to secure more flights. The pitch is more difficult, since the commercial plan is more complex and the airport needs its government to line up stopover and, ideally, fifth freedom rights.

Beyond traffic rights have often been an afterthought in China's air services negotiations. Although some foreign airlines may begrudgingly accept that their governments will grant broad third and fourth freedom traffic rights to China, fifth freedom rights are more contentious.

For example, Canadian airports (Vancouver especially) would like Chinese airlines to use Canada as a stopover en route to Latin America, but airports have to balance this prospective offer with the wishes of Air Canada. Canadian airports are tied to Air Canada for their lifeblood, and upsetting Air Canada could mean that they lose services.

Canada provides another example of complexity, in that beyond rights are limited. China has not succeeded in securing more third and fourth freedom traffic rights, so asking for more fifth freedom rights could result in them needing to reduce third/fourth freedom requests, or be prepared to offer more to the other party in exchange. Besides the matter of stopover rights, there is the matter of whether through transit is possible (complex in Canada, and not possible in the US).

....
Air China has China's oldest service to Latin America and the country's only service to lower South America. Air China opened Beijing-Madrid-São Paulo service in 2006. Air China flies the route twice weekly with the 787-9. Air China is the only remaining Asian airline in South America – after Korean Air and Singapore Airlines exited Brazil.

Air China also flies to Havana. Although Cuba is technically part of North America, China considers Cuba part of Latin America from a strategic and cultural perspective.

In Sep-2015 Air China started Beijing-Montreal service and in Dec-2015 it continued the flight to Havana. Air China did not launch the Havana tag at the same time as Montreal because it was apparently trying to persuade Beijing that the Havana tag should not be offered (or at least without a significant subsidy). The argument was run that it would be extremely unprofitable, and require large asset utilisation.

Beijing, however, wanted a Cuba service for geopolitical reasons. As an indicator of the route's viability, Air China launched Havana three times weekly but then cut services to a mere once weekly flight, despite offering Beijing-Montreal four times a week.

Although Air China is one of the country's three state owned airlines it is the only "flag carrier", and consequently has to fly more geopolitically important routes than do China Eastern or China Southern.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by mezzanine

I dunno if CA has considered moving its 5th freedom flight to havana from montreal to europe and using the freed-up 5th freedom leg to serve south america from YVR.

The SA route with the highest yield would be PEK-YVR-GRU, and since CA already serves GRU via MAD, they are probably not interested in the former.

PEK-MAD-GRU is also much shorter than PEK-YVR-GRU, and the local 5th freedom on MAD-GRU much larger, albeit with competition on the route.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

South America O&D is actually getting very strong. Possibly strong enough to warrant direct flights.... probably on the cusp of viability.
YVR’s best bet may be a fifth freedom link with an Asian carrier like CZ to MEX.

YVR-MEX has just exploded in the last two years... a good indication of strong markets to Latin America but the targets of LIM and SCL probably aren’t quite there yet.

As per Mezzanine's link, CZ doesn't have 5th freedom rights on YVR-MEX.

And YVR-MEX "exploding" has less to do with YVR and more to do with the Canada-Mexico visa restrictions being eased. YUL-MEX and YYZ-MEX have seen similar increases.

AM is simply playing "catch up" to where they were supposed to be in terms of frequency if the visa requirement never happened. The "Trump" effect is not negligible either.

And more importantly, none of this has anything to do with South America. Unlike Mexico, most South Americans need visas to enter Canada, except for Chile and French Guiana. Brazilians require an eTA.

As I said, I think eventually YVR might see South American service. GRU has higher chances compared to LIM, SCL or EZE. If it will happen, I think AC has as many chances as an Asian carrier of being the operator.

I say that because AC will want to leverage it's TPAC hub at YVR with more feed, and SA is a gap in YVR's network that AC will want to tap into, when the yields are right. Also because 5th freedom flights are rare these days. YUL has one for political reasons only, nothing more.

[Gordon]

Any idea when these remote stand will be in use?

They will take place of the current international remote stands i assume.

[mezzanine]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

As per Mezzanine's link, CZ doesn't have 5th freedom rights on YVR-MEX.

And YVR-MEX "exploding" has less to do with YVR and more to do with the Canada-Mexico visa restrictions being eased. YUL-MEX and YYZ-MEX have seen similar increases.

AM is simply playing "catch up" to where they were supposed to be in terms of frequency if the visa requirement never happened. The "Trump" effect is not negligible either.

And more importantly, none of this has anything to do with South America. Unlike Mexico, most South Americans need visas to enter Canada, except for Chile and French Guiana. Brazilians require an eTA.

As I said, I think eventually YVR might see South American service. GRU has higher chances compared to LIM, SCL or EZE. If it will happen, I think AC has as many chances as an Asian carrier of being the operator.

I say that because AC will want to leverage it's TPAC hub at YVR with more feed, and SA is a gap in YVR's network that AC will want to tap into, when the yields are right. Also because 5th freedom flights are rare these days. YUL has one for political reasons only, nothing more.

Doesnt YVR has more non stop flights than YUL to MEX? in all fairness, growth in YVR MEX has been more robust than expected if that is correct.

CA's flight to GRU has matured but i still wonder about revenue and if potential revenues would increased if thru YVR, even with the greater length. The west coast of SA i hope would have more viability for AC. CA service to LIM /SCE via YVR would be a negative for potential AC service from YVR, IMO.