Amazon HQ2 thread

[BG918]

Originally Posted by lio45

One big downside of Toronto is income taxes for Amazon's workers.

HQ2 in Austin or Dallas for example (Texas has no personal state income tax) means you can pay those ~50,000 workers less while still having them perfectly satisfied with their net earnings and the lifestyle they can get from their pay.

Not if they want to buy a house/apartment or even rent one. Real estate prices are sky high due to high property taxes. You might pay less in income tax but you pay more in property tax so it washes out.

[MidTenn1]

For what it's worth, odds makers have made Nashville the favorite.

Online shop Bovada has released odds on which city will be chosen for Amazon HQ2, with Nashville coming in as the +800 favorite. Washington, D.C. (+1000), Atlanta (+1200), Austin (+1400), Dallas (+1400), Philadelphia (+1400), Indianapolis (+1500), Los Angeles (+1500), Montgomery County, Maryland (+1500) and Pittsburgh (+1500) round out the top 10.

[IrishIllini]

I'm also surprised both Minneapolis and Detroit got cut while Indianapolis and Columbus made the top 20. Maybe they're only there to add a bit of diversity to the list? Had they been excluded, the only city from the Midwest to be in the running would be Chicago.

Perhaps Minneapolis' incentives weren't competitive, but I find it hard to believe that someone would choose move to Indianapolis over Minneapolis unless they had ties to the area. Columbus is a bit more unique a place than Indianapolis IMO, but still surprised to see it's more competitive than Detroit. I know the perception is that Detroit is a wasteland, but downtown Detroit, some of the inner ring neighborhoods, and many of the suburbs are quite nice. Michigan is underrated.

[Chef]

Minneapolis has chronic labor shortages whenever the economy isn't in recession. That may be a major knock against it. It is currently a very hard city to hire in.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Completely disagree.

NY is probably the only metro in the US where the above is the case

50,000 workers are about 1% of LA 's labor force. We wouldn't really feel it

[SteveD]

Originally Posted by LosAngelesSportsFan

50,000 workers are about 1% of LA 's labor force. We wouldn't really feel it

Inasmuch as their own criteria stated a metro of 1 million, and it wouldn't be POP! all 50K at the same time, I'd say any number of large metros in the country could accommodate it, Atlanta included. It would be an incremental, step by step ramp up.

[C.]

Originally Posted by BG918

Not if they want to buy a house/apartment or even rent one. Real estate prices are sky high due to high property taxes. You might pay less in income tax but you pay more in property tax so it washes out.

Can you elaborate?

New Jersey has sky high property taxes, but I'm curious what you consider sky high taxes and where.

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhom...t-105_South-Orange_NJ_07079_M68831-99803

$6,691 on a entry level townhome valued at $224,000 for example.

[M II A II R II K]

Amazon froze out cities without subways

https://www.axios.com/amazon-hq2-shorlis...87b39b5-f4b2-4f46-9cd1-3b2bca6598d8.html

.....

- Cities like Detroit and Phoenix, which were widely expected to be short-listed, were hurt by their lack of public transportation and high congestion, says Jason Horowitz of Anderson Economic Group, a consulting firm. — Horowitz did not include Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania or Columbus, Ohio, in his list of likely site locations, because their airports lacked direct flights to Seattle, San Francisco and Washington D.C.

.....

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by M II A II R II K

Amazon froze out cities without subways

then how the hell did indy and columbus make the cut?

they have absolutely no rail transit of any kind - heavy rail, light rail, commuter rail, or otherwise.

detroit and phoenix at least have light rail systems.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

then how the hell did indy and columbus make the cut?

they have absolutely no rail transit of any kind - heavy rail, light rail, commuter rail, or otherwise.

detroit and phoenix at least have light rail/people mover systems.

Neither does Raleigh...

I have read that all of the regions being considered either have a rail system in operation or one being planned. Detroit doesn't have any plans for rail transit extensions at this time, so that might have factored. But I'm still skeptical.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Neither does Raleigh...

I have read that all of the regions being considered either have a rail system in operation or one being planned.

i'm am not aware of any firm plans for rail transit in indy or columbus.

they are both planning their first BRT lines, and perhaps that's good enough for amazon, but if so, it would further debunk the "detroit was rejected because it doesn't have a subway" myth.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by 10023

That's not really an issue if the plan would be to hire Canadians (including skilled immigrants). It's a different labor pool, of people who couldn't or wouldn't necessarily move to Texas.

I'm assuming the labor pool is kind of global. If HQ2 is in the U.S., it will employ Canadians; if it's in Toronto, it will employ Americans.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by BG918

Not if they want to buy a house/apartment or even rent one. Real estate prices are sky high due to high property taxes. You might pay less in income tax but you pay more in property tax so it washes out.

You think real estate prices are much cheaper in Toronto than in Dallas?

[mrnyc]

my guess is rail transit will happen all at once in columbus. for sure like if they landed this amazon hq.

btw in the end there was no way cinci or cle were going to be in the running vs columbus. the ohio state government is just too stacked against them to be very supportive over the capital city bid. ideally if they had their act together they would have just worked something out, bitterly no doubt, but decisively, and all thrown in behind one strong fully state supported bid. i know thats probably asking too much of such a politically well divided up state as ohio. oh well, at least cols is still in the running, but no doubt that will get what else is new and shrugs around the rest of the state instead of more unified state support as i would imagine some finalist bids will have.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by lio45

One big downside of Toronto is income taxes for Amazon's workers.

HQ2 in Austin or Dallas for example (Texas has no personal state income tax) means you can pay those ~50,000 workers less while still having them perfectly satisfied with their net earnings and the lifestyle they can get from their pay.

True. Toronto's personal income taxes for high income earners are competitive only when compared to the high-tax US states (like California, New York etc.) That said, most business investment tends to go to those high-tax states anyway.

Originally Posted by lio45

I'm assuming the labor pool is kind of global. If HQ2 is in the U.S., it will employ Canadians; if it's in Toronto, it will employ Americans.

Ease of hiring a global labour pool (due to immigration laws) is the probably the #1 factor that Toronto has going for it and probably the main thing that vaulted it into the top 20.

[10023]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Agreed. Amazon could've easily narrowed it to a list of 8-10 at most.

Just looking at the list, anyone can immediately cross off these cities as having no chance due to insufficient talent pool:
Atlanta
Austin
Boston
Chicago
Columbus
Dallas
Denver
Indianapolis
Los Angeles
Miami
Montgomery County
Nashville
Newark
New York
Northern Virginia
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Raleigh
Toronto
Washington, D.C.

DC and its suburban counties represent the same talent pool.

Raleigh doesn't have the (current) talent pool for this. The Research Triangle is very medicine and biotech focused. It has some great universities, but it's not ahead of Pittsburgh in that regard.

[bnk]

Originally Posted by MidTenn1

For what it's worth, odds makers have made Nashville the favorite.

I'm a member of Bovada.

They are only taking bets that max out at wins of $ 2000 dollars currently. Ill check on this later though that might change. By bets are in.


It think the limit is in place to keep deep insiders in the know from taking home the whole bank.

They want the average joe schmoe that is not an insider executive to bet a million and take home hundreds of millions if they know already.

[Car(e)-Free LA]

My guess for the top ten:
New York City or Newark
Toronto
1/3 DMV
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Dallas
Denver
Los Angeles!!!
Philly

My guess for elimination:
Raleigh--sprawly, small, like a wannabe Atlanta without a big airport.
Columbus--small, bad transit, tiny airport
New York City or Newark--one per MSA
Indianapolis--see Columbus
2/3 in DMV--one per MSA
Nashville--see Raleigh
Pittsburgh--see Columbus
Miami--lacking in Talent
Austin--see Columbus

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by M II A II R II K

Quote:
.....

- Horowitz did not include Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania or Columbus, Ohio, in his list of likely site locations, because their airports lacked direct flights to Seattle, San Francisco and Washington D.C.

.....

Fail by Horowitz... Pittsburgh added a daily direct flight to Seattle a few months ago which will start in 2018 based on current demand for a nonstop flight, will be resuming a daily direct flight to San Fran in March and adding a second direct daily flight there, and has long had a few daily direct flights to DC (even though many people drive because it can be done in less time than it takes to fly there... it's a 4 hr or less drive).

Also, the Pittsburgh airport recently announced a $1.1B transformation project.

Originally Posted by mrnyc

my guess is rail transit will happen all at once in columbus. for sure like if they landed this amazon hq.

btw in the end there was no way cinci or cle were going to be in the running vs columbus. the ohio state government is just too stacked against them to be very supportive over the capital city bid. ideally if they had their act together they would have just worked something out, bitterly no doubt, but decisively, and all thrown in behind one strong fully state supported bid. i know thats probably asking too much of such a politically well divided up state as ohio. oh well, at least cols is still in the running, but no doubt that will get what else is new and shrugs around the rest of the state instead of more unified state support as i would imagine some finalist bids will have.

Columbus turned a $50M grant from winning the Smart City Challenge into $500M very quickly thru public-private partnerships. From what I hear, Amazon really liked the fact that the state capital and its big private and public employers worked together very well in the name of using technological innovation to greatly improve the city's transit system.

[pj3000]

My top 10:

Miami
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Toronto
Fairfax County
Newark
Montgomery County
Atlanta
Columbus
Boston

There's a 50% chance that it will be one of them.