Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting - Page 409

Pinion · #**8161** Posted **Jan 17, 2018, 8:07 PM**

.

GlassCity · #**8162** Posted **Jan 17, 2018, 8:59 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinion

They need to pass voting reform before I vote Green, but I absolutely will if the NDP don't take big steps to fixing things.

Without voting reform we'll just split the left and get stuck with the BC Liberals again.

BTW just saw this video from near Disneyland. This is absolutely the future for Vancouver. We already have this on a smaller scale, but growing rapidly:

Yeah Horgan's words were really disconcerting to me too. The way the NDP's going I can't say they're giving themselves the greatest chance for next election. We'll see what happens, but if there was ever a chance for the Greens to blow up, this is how. Weaver's playing the game superbly.

geotag277 · #**8163** Posted **Jan 17, 2018, 9:01 PM**

Horgan is honestly sounding like Christy Clark more with each passing day. It will be very interesting to see where things shake out after the February budget. If sentiment is very poor regarding the housing market reforms, we may be seeing a confidence vote earlier rather than later. I'm not sure that would lead to a green wave, as the threat of vote splitting is very real and if the Liberals slipped in to another majority term, without a tough stance on housing, that would be a disaster.

GlassCity · #**8164** Posted **Jan 17, 2018, 9:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by geotag277

Horgan is honestly sounding like Christy Clark more with each passing day. It will be very interesting to see where things shake out after the February budget. If sentiment is very poor regarding the housing market reforms, we may be seeing a confidence vote earlier rather than later. I'm not sure that would lead to a green wave, as the threat of vote splitting is very real and if the Liberals slipped in to another majority term, without a tough stance on housing, that would be a disaster.

If the Liberals came up with a legitimate housing plan, and said they'd keep the tolls off the bridges, they would have a landslide in the Lower Mainland and win the election.

You're right in that there's no Green wave guaranteed, but that with the right message this could be their best opportunity to do something and steal seats away from the NDP, potentially expanding past Vancouver Island into the Lower Mainland and the Kootenays.

This would of course leave us with some type of Liberal government though, so I'm assuming the NDP will be smart with their February budget and have at least something somewhat substantive on housing there. I think the Greens smell blood and could turn on the NDP at any second. Everyone has to be careful here. Greens also have to decide if they prefer to prop up an NDP government rather than a Liberal government, which is what would happen if the Greens increased their seat count.

geotag277 · #**8165** Posted **Jan 17, 2018, 9:20 PM**

I do find it odd that Weaver is pushing so hard on housing (specifically the foreign buyer ban) considering his past comments. I talked about it before in this thread here:

http://www.skyscraperpage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8048246&postcount=8139

It is reading more and more like Weaver is going to leverage NDP weakness on housing to make a political move. The Greens desperately need to shed their fringe party reputation and gain more traction in representation across BC, and this might be the vehicle to do it for them.

Pinion · #**8166** Posted **Jan 17, 2018, 9:59 PM**

.

geotag277 · #**8167** Posted **Jan 17, 2018, 10:08 PM**

wrong thread

Bcasey25raptor · #**8168** Posted **Jan 17, 2018, 11:35 PM**

Yep, I'm voting Green next time, NDP have proven to be gutless.

lio45 · #**8169** Posted **Jan 17, 2018, 11:50 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlassCity

Greens also have to decide if they prefer to prop up an NDP government rather than a Liberal government, which is what would happen if the Greens increased their seat count.

The Greens likely just want the balance of power, regardless of whether it's a Liberal or NDP government. If they increase their seat count while the NDP is replaced by a minority Liberal govt, that's a win for them. Greater influence and power. They hold the govt by the balls anyway, so...

lio45 · #**8170** Posted **Jan 17, 2018, 11:55 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by geotag277

I'm not sure that would lead to a green wave, as the threat of vote splitting is very real and if the Liberals slipped in to another majority term, without a tough stance on housing, that would be a disaster.

To avoid this, they could do a deal to split equally and fairly between themselves a bunch of swing ridings that they forecast would go Lib by a third to a half of the vote if the NDP and Greens shared the majority of the vote between themselves in the election.

Identify all such ridings, see who's ahead in which, then the Greens wouldn't field a candidate in the ones where the NDP is strongest, in exchange for which the NDP wouldn't compete in the ones where the Greens have the best chance to beat the Libs in a binary election.

If there are too many, then realistically the pact could be limited to, say, the 10 ridings that are the closest to being lost to the Libs due to vote splitting. Just that would already help.

Pinion · #**8171** Posted **Jan 18, 2018, 12:45 AM**

.

whatnext · #**8172** Posted **Jan 18, 2018, 5:33 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

Some people believe that cheating the system makes you intelligent and only a fool wouldn’t do that. If you come from a country where corruption, especially governmental, is all around you then why wouldn’t you feel that way? This is contrary to Canadian norms but if our governments are so weak that they won’t investigate rampant crimes, enforce our laws, or properly punish corruption then what recourse do we have as citizens other than to vote them out?

One month until the BC NDP decide their fate...

Very true. The Federal Liberals should also be watching their back on this issue.

dleung · #**8173** Posted **Jan 18, 2018, 6:36 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinion

If you post an actual nice house on a small lot you can go way higher than $3.3 million. This is $21,000,0000:

No exaggeration needed.

It's assessed at only $12M, $10.5M for a 12000sf lot with 70 feet of West Vancouver waterfront, $1.5M for the house (which seems like a great deal for custom build).

ssiguy · #**8174** Posted **Jan 18, 2018, 7:24 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Yep, I'm voting Green next time, NDP have proven to be gutless.

Well I'm not that far along yet. I'll wait to see what happens with the budget. I don't like what I have heard so far but the NDP can read polls as well as anyone else and they know that housing is by far the biggest concern of BCers. With them only having a minority government and the Greens being very forthright about wanting a ban on foreign ownership {although legally, that is a federal jurisdiction a 100% foreign tax would do the same thing as a ban} they know they are walking on very thin ice.

The Greens know that if the government falls the Liberals would be in a real pickle as currently they have no leader and so they realize they could finally make real gains in the province and be a truly viable party.

The problem the NDP faces is that they have inherited this mess of an economy and even if they want to bring in very strong real estate reforms and the like, they also know that BC's economy is so dependent on real estate that it could result in a real recession with huge job losses and ballooning deficits. The impact real estate has on the BC economy cannot be overstated. Real estate now makes up a whopping 19% of GDP, that's more than oil, gas, and forestry combined. At 19% of GDP, real estate now accounts for more of BC's economy than oil & gas does in Alberta.

casper · #**8175** Posted **Jan 18, 2018, 8:20 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Well I'm not that far along yet. I'll wait to see what happens with the budget. I don't like what I have heard so far but the NDP can read polls as well as anyone else and they know that housing is by far the biggest concern of BCers. With them only having a minority government and the Greens being very forthright about wanting a ban on foreign ownership {although legally, that is a federal jurisdiction a 100% foreign tax would do the same thing as a ban} they know they are walking on very thin ice.

The Greens know that if the government falls the Liberals would be in a real pickle as currently they have no leader and so they realize they could finally make real gains in the province and be a truly viable party.

The problem the NDP faces is that they have inherited this mess of an economy and even if they want to bring in very strong real estate reforms and the like, they also know that BC's economy is so dependent on real estate that it could result in a real recession with huge job losses and ballooning deficits. The impact real estate has on the BC economy cannot be overstated. Real estate now makes up a whopping 19% of GDP, that's more than oil, gas, and forestry combined. At 19% of GDP, real estate now accounts for more of BC's economy than oil & gas does in Alberta.

To have the government fall both the Greens and Liberals how to vote together. If having an election is not helpful for the Liberals just now the Liberals make certain the government does not fall.

I don't know where you get these GDP number.

Construction in BC makes up 10% of GDP. That is all constructions, schools, roads, office buildings, residential. Residential construction is 4.2% of GDP.

Here is the data source I am using: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/data/statistics/economy/bc-economic-accounts-gdp

whatnext · #**8176** Posted **Jan 18, 2018, 12:26 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Yep, I'm voting Green next time, NDP have proven to be gutless.

You owe it to the NDP to at least write an email to Horgan and copy it to Carol James and your MLA (if NDP) and tell them what you want to see done. As I’ve said before, I’ve done it and if they feel the pressure they’ll act accordingly.

Pinion · #**8177** Posted **Jan 18, 2018, 12:50 PM**

.

geotag277 · #**8178** Posted **Jan 18, 2018, 4:15 PM**

There are 10 million houses available in most Canadian major cities. Once you list a house for much over 15 million on 10 million dollar lots you are just hoping for a whale with more money than sense to take the property off your hands. Those listing prices are typically just pipe dreams.

Pinion · #**8179** Posted **Jan 18, 2018, 5:16 PM**

.

geotag277 · #**8180** Posted **Jan 18, 2018, 5:33 PM**

As far as I know the all time record sale price for a Vancouver house is in 2016 - 31.1 M (4833 Belmont Ave) - which was assessed at 25.6 M at the time of the sale, which is about a %20 premium on the assessed price, which seems about right. (The property was assessed in 2017 at 33 M).

I believe the most expensive house sold in 2017 was $17.6 M (3403 Point Grey Road).

In any case, 20 million is certainly not "nothing" in Vancouver's market. Having a 68 million dollar property is actually a huge problem financially, because the list of buyers at that price is probably single digits (most likely that single digit is 0).