Rural Commuter Rail

[Charles5]

Fun fact of the day:

The MOOSE proposal is for this rail system to stimulate a 100 square kilometer development project.
1 square kilometer is approximately equal to 250 acres.
100 square kilometers is approximately 25,000 acres of development land.

They also suggest that this rail network will carry 25,000 passengers daily.

Therefore, in the MOOSE plan, there will be 1 acre of development for each passenger carried.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Charles5

Therefore, in the MOOSE plan, there will be 1 acre of development for each passenger carried.

These are rural developments. People living in the country expect a large plot of land.

To be fair, developments do require various services, such as roads, parks, schools and even local retail space. I am not sure if that adds up to an acre per person, but you can also assume not everyone will use the train daily.

[acottawa]

So it seems to me all of the following steps are necessary for a Moose service to work the way Mr. Potvin describes it.

1. The federal government has to pass legislation implementing the Declaratory Power for the first time since 1961 to declare all of the track Moose wants to use and all land Moose wants to use to be for the "general Advantage of Canada or for the Advantage of Three or more of the Provinces" and therefore under federal jurisdiction. The federal government has to be willing to provoke a constitutional crisis (provinces and municipalities would be furious) and survive a Supreme Court challenge (which would have a very good chance of winning).

2. The Canadian Transportation Agency would have to order all of the railways and landowners now under its jurisdiction to let Moose use its track/land and to give Moose priority over other services (such as the Trillium line). This is the complete opposite of how railways have worked in Canada for the last 150 years (where the owner of the railway has priority). This action would have to survive a cabinet challenge, a court challenge, and possibly a NAFTA challenge (if NAFTA still exists).

3. Moose would be required to find an investor or lender willing to put up at least a billion for capital and early operating expenditures, despite the fact that Moose has no assets and no collateral. Said investor/lender would also have to cover any capital costs that exceed estimates.

4. Moose would have to find 40-something developers willing to build communities that meet their funding requirements and or existing communities willing to band together to form homeowners associations for the purpose of paying moose.

5. Moose's partners have to receive municipal (and in some cases provincial or federal) planning approval to build these communities. In many cases sewer and water systems will need to be built or upgraded as many of these communities are currently on wells and septic systems.

6. Demand for high density rural living (which hasn't existed in the western world since the middle ages) has to go from zero to enormous. The demand has to be so high that tens of thousands of urban and suburban residents of Ottawa and Gatineau will abandon the city in favour of high density rural living, despite much longer commutes, fewer amenities, etc.

7. Transit-related property value increases have to be much higher than anywhere else in the world, in order to generate billions in total property-value increases to fund both Moose's operating cost and repayment of loans/investments made to fund initial operations. This extraordinarily high demand has to be sustainable over time and future buyers have to take significant loses.

8. Despite the fact that (6.) will pretty much bankrupt Ottawa and Gatineau (by causing a precipitous population decline), Ottawa and Gatineau will provide free transit to all of these rural commuters.

While the probability of all of these things is pretty low, the probably of all of them happening is astronomically low. I think the basic problem here is that Moose is good at summarizing academic studies, but struggle with applying these concepts to existing political, economic, or real estate contexts.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by acottawa

8. Despite the fact that (6.) will pretty much bankrupt Ottawa and Gatineau (by causing a precipitous population decline), Ottawa and Gatineau will provide free transit to all of these rural commuters.

As debated in the last ~15 or so posts, they won't be providing any free transit service to anyone outside of their existing monthly pass discounts.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

As debated in the last ~15 or so posts, they won't be providing any free transit service to anyone outside of their existing monthly pass discounts.

That isn't what moose has said repeatedly.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

2. The Canadian Transportation Agency would have to order all of the railways and landowners now under its jurisdiction to let Moose use its track/land and to give Moose priority over other services (such as the Trillium line). This is the complete opposite of how railways have worked in Canada for the last 150 years (where the owner of the railway has priority). This action would have to survive a cabinet challenge, a court challenge, and possibly a NAFTA challenge (if NAFTA still exists).

Joseph was clear they aren't trying to force priority over the Trillium Line via a legal fight. They believe there will be a grass roots movement to pressure the politicians to give exclusive access to Moose. Personally I think they have been drinking too much of their own Kool-Aid, but you can never predict how the uneducated masses will react.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Joseph was clear they aren't trying to force priority over the Trillium Line via a legal fight. They believe there will be a grass roots movement to pressure the politicians to give exclusive access to Moose. Personally I think they have been drinking too much of their own Kool-Aid, but you can never predict how the uneducated masses will react.

I think this feeds into Moose's general problem in integrating academic theory into real politics. Which politicians are supposed to give exclusive access to Moose? City of Ottawa politicians who have few constituents in areas Moose serves (and lots of constituents who use the trillium line)? Ontario politicians who would have to re-write the Municipal Affairs Act to strip the city of the power to make such a decision? Federal politicians who would have to re-write the Canadian Transportation Act to strip the CTA of the power to make such a decision and transfer it to politicians?

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by acottawa

That isn't what moose has said repeatedly.

I suggest you take another look at what Mr. Potvin has stated. He said that there would be equal MOOSE to OC Transpo as well as OC Transpo to MOOSE transfers. This is in the interest of integrating MOOSE with OC Transpo as much as possible.
Passengers would still need to pay to take OC Transpo back to the nearest MOOSE station.

This is exactly the same kind of arrangement that occurs between OC Transpo and the STO. Would you say that residents of Gatineau are getting free transit from OC just because they can transfer from an STO bus without any extra cost?

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

I suggest you take another look at what Mr. Potvin has stated. He said that there would be equal MOOSE to OC Transpo as well as OC Transpo to MOOSE transfers. This is in the interest of integrating MOOSE with OC Transpo as much as possible.
Passengers would still need to pay to take OC Transpo back to the nearest MOOSE station.

This is exactly the same kind of arrangement that occurs between OC Transpo and the STO. Would you say that residents of Gatineau are getting free transit from OC just because they can transfer from an STO bus without any extra cost?

As I said earlier, that means a Moose customer pays 50% less than a regular OC transpo customer. Offering such a discount makes no sense for OC Transpo or Ottawa taxpayers.

There are 3 key differences between STO and Moose.

1) While ridership is not balanced, there is some reciprocity (17,000 Ottawa residents work in Quebec, whereas hardly any Ottawa residents work in the rural areas Moose wants to serve).
2) STO serves downtown Ottawa, so a significant number of STO passengers don't transfer at all. Whereas close to 100% of Moose customers would need to transfer to get anywhere (pretty much everyone except Carleton employees/students).
3) STO customers who do transfer are mostly reverse-commuting (leaving downtown Ottawa in the morning, returning in the evening) so they are not putting pressure on the system. In contrast, Moose customers would mostly be getting on downtown bound trains in the morning and outbound trains in the evening, meaning OC transpo would incur extra expense to add capacity when it is at its maximum.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I think this feeds into Moose's general problem in integrating academic theory into real politics. Which politicians are supposed to give exclusive access to Moose? City of Ottawa politicians who have few constituents in areas Moose serves (and lots of constituents who use the trillium line)? Ontario politicians who would have to re-write the Municipal Affairs Act to strip the city of the power to make such a decision? Federal politicians who would have to re-write the Canadian Transportation Act to strip the CTA of the power to make such a decision and transfer it to politicians?

City of Ottawa politicians.

I tend to agree with you, but looking at the map, a surprising number of stations will be within Ottawa city limits. Ignoring the exiting stations, the following stations will be inside city limits: Merivale, Barrhaven, Richmond, Bells Corners Terry Fox, March Rd., Kinburn, Fitzroy, Navan and Vars.

I'm kind of curious about the Bells Corners stop. It is inside the Greenbelt and thus (unless Moose knows something I don't) there really isn't any opportunity for new developments, so I am not sure who will sponsor it.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by acottawa

As I said earlier, that means a Moose customer pays 50% less than a regular OC transpo customer. Offering such a discount makes no sense for OC Transpo or Ottawa taxpayers.

There are 3 key differences between STO and Moose.

1) While ridership is not balanced, there is some reciprocity (17,000 Ottawa residents work in Quebec, whereas hardly any Ottawa residents work in the rural areas Moose wants to serve).
2) STO serves downtown Ottawa, so a significant number of STO passengers don't transfer at all. Whereas close to 100% of Moose customers would need to transfer to get anywhere (pretty much everyone except Carleton employees/students).
3) STO customers who do transfer are mostly reverse-commuting (leaving downtown Ottawa in the morning, returning in the evening) so they are not putting pressure on the system. In contrast, Moose customers would mostly be getting on downtown bound trains in the morning and outbound trains in the evening, meaning OC transpo would incur extra expense to add capacity when it is at its maximum.

And I'll say it again, I'm sure an arrangement would be made between MOOSE and OC Transpo that both parties agree on that would deal with this issue.

Saying that any of MOOSE's passengers would be "riding for free" is pretty hyperbolic and doesn't add anything to your argument.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

Passengers would still need to pay to take OC Transpo back to the nearest MOOSE station.

This is exactly the same kind of arrangement that occurs between OC Transpo and the STO. Would you say that residents of Gatineau are getting free transit from OC just because they can transfer from an STO bus without any extra cost?

Except, those with an STO bus pass don't pay anything to OCTranspo.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

And I'll say it again, I'm sure an arrangement would be made between MOOSE and OC Transpo that both parties agree on that would deal with this issue.

Agreed. This would be a negotiated agreement between Moose and OC Transpo.

Saying that any of MOOSE's passengers would be "riding for free" is pretty hyperbolic and doesn't add anything to your argument.

I have said it before. It is quid pro quo. Moose passengers get to use OC Transpo and OC Transpo passengers get to use Moose. For example, Carleton students would be able to use Moose as a replacement for the Trillium Line.

Originally Posted by Charles5

They also suggest that this rail network will carry 25,000 passengers daily.

I am curious how many passengers ride the Trillium line in a day? Some of those 25,000 Moose passengers will be going to Gatineau or a station on the Moose line (like Carleton), but we can safely assume a large percentage will transfer to OC Transpo at some point.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

And I'll say it again, I'm sure an arrangement would be made between MOOSE and OC Transpo that both parties agree on that would deal with this issue.

Saying that any of MOOSE's passengers would be "riding for free" is pretty hyperbolic and doesn't add anything to your argument.

Under your proposed scenario Moose customer arrives at an OC transpo station, pays $0.00. That is the definition of free, it is no hyperbole. The fact that they will pay for a fare in the afternoon is irrelevant. It would be like walking into starbucks in the morning and demanding a free coffee because you intend to pay for a coffee in the afternoon.

Meanwhile, somebody who lives in Ottawa and is already paying a significant amount of taxes for OC transpo has to pay both the morning and afternoon fares. How is that fair exactly?

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Agreed. This would be a negotiated agreement between Moose and OC Transpo.

I have said it before. It is quid pro quo. Moose passengers get to use OC Transpo and OC Transpo passengers get to use Moose. For example, Carleton students would be able to use Moose as a replacement for the Trillium Line.

I am curious how many passengers ride the Trillium line in a day? Some of those 25,000 Moose passengers will be going to Gatineau or a station on the Moose line (like Carleton), but we can safely assume a large percentage will transfer to OC Transpo at some point.

Quid pro quo implies there is something of value is exchanged between two parties. In this case the value to Moose would be extremely high (a free transfer for almost 100% of its customers) and the value to OC transpo would be very low (a few tourists, maybe a few employees of industrial parks in the suburbs, possibly carleton students if Ottawa agrees to shut down the Trillium line)).

Trillium line has about 15,000 daily passengers. It is pure nonsense to think the city is going to inconvenience 15,000 Ottawa residents for the benefit of rural commuters.
http://www.octranspo.com/about-octranspo/reports_and_stats

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Under your proposed scenario Moose customer arrives at an OC transpo station, pays $0.00. That is the definition of free, it is no hyperbole. The fact that they will pay for a fare in the afternoon is irrelevant. It would be like walking into starbucks in the morning and demanding a free coffee because you intend to pay for a coffee in the afternoon.

Meanwhile, somebody who lives in Ottawa and is already paying a significant amount of taxes for OC transpo has to pay both the morning and afternoon fares. How is that fair exactly?

With that kind of logic, you could argue that any kind of pass or transfer is just a "free ride" and that they should be abolished.

As I have said multiple times and will say again, in this scenario where MOOSE passengers can transfer directly to OC Transpo, MOOSE and OC Transpo would come to some sort of agreement that would make the total amount of revenue OC Transpo would get from a single MOOSE passenger equivalent to what they would receive from a single monthly pass user.

Using your coffee example: You could certainly do that, as long as someone else paid for the coffee, or you had some kind of arrangement with the coffee shop.

Originally Posted by acottawa

Quid pro quo implies there is something of value is exchanged between two parties. In this case the value to Moose would be extremely high (a free transfer for almost 100% of its customers) and the value to OC transpo would be very low (a few tourists, maybe a few employees of industrial parks in the suburbs, possibly carleton students if Ottawa agrees to shut down the Trillium line)).

Or you know, everyone who would pay a fare on their way home from work?

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Quid pro quo implies there is something of value is exchanged between two parties. In this case the value to Moose would be extremely high (a free transfer for almost 100% of its customers) and the value to OC transpo would be very low (a few tourists, maybe a few employees of industrial parks in the suburbs, possibly carleton students if Ottawa agrees to shut down the Trillium line)).

It only works if they do shut down the Trillium line.

Trillium line has about 15,000 daily passengers. It is pure nonsense to think the city is going to inconvenience 15,000 Ottawa residents for the benefit of rural commuters.

Most of those Trillium line passengers are going to Carleton, so unless they are using one of the stations that will be closed, they won't be unduly inconvenienced (assuming frequencies and travel times along the central line remain close to the same). Even those travelling between Bayview and Greensboro to the other won't be inconvenienced. Now once the line is extended south, things will change, but I don't think that will even double the ridership on the line.

Having said that, I do agree that the city will resist handing over the tracks to Moose, especially after spending all that money to upgrade the line.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by roger1818

It only works if they do shut down the Trillium line.



Most of those Trillium line passengers are going to Carleton, so unless they are using one of the stations that will be closed, they won't be unduly inconvenienced (assuming frequencies and travel times along the central line remain close to the same). Even those travelling between Bayview and Greensboro to the other won't be inconvenienced. Now once the line is extended south, things will change, but I don't think that will even double the ridership on the line.

Having said that, I do agree that the city will resist handing over the tracks to Moose, especially after spending all that money to upgrade the line.

Most? I agree it is the biggest destination, but the line is still well-used when the university is not in session. There are a number of large employers near the line, plus South Keys (and in future the airport, little Italy, the hospital, etc).

Trillium line comes every 12 minutes or so - I can't imagine Moose would have a frequency like that. And even if it did, many Carleton passengers get off somewhere other than Bayview.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

As I have said multiple times and will say again, in this scenario where MOOSE passengers can transfer directly to OC Transpo, MOOSE and OC Transpo would come to some sort of agreement that would make the total amount of revenue OC Transpo would get from a single MOOSE passenger equivalent to what they would receive from a single monthly pass user.

As you have also said, that is what you say, it is not what moose says. And as I noted earlier, such a scheme is of little value to a moose passenger (if they're paying $40 indirectly through moose and $70 through the fare box they would be better off just buying a pass and have unlimited travel whether they pay moose or not).

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Even those travelling between Bayview and Greensboro to the other won't be inconvenienced.

What moose is calling Greensboro and what we know as Greensboro cannot be the same place. The intersection of the lines from Smiths Falls and Arnprior is just south of the Home Deput, well north of the existing Greensboro station (and the park and ride, bus station and south keys shopping centre).