Amazon HQ2 thread - Page 64

skyscraperpage17 · #**1261** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 3:52 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023

Rochester NY? Seriously?

Mainly because they have a somewhat sizable tech community.

10023 · #**1262** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 3:54 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

No.

And even if they did, why should Amazon choose that city over the city that already has the connectivity in place?

Because it doesn’t matter.

If there isn’t a flight to Seattle, that’s because there isn’t enough demand. If Amazon opened HQ2, then there would be demand. The connectivity would be in place before a single employee moved into the new office.

10023 · #**1263** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 3:54 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

Mainly because they have a somewhat sizable tech community.

Where? I hope you don’t mean Kodak.

skyscraperpage17 · #**1264** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 4:01 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd3189

Why couldn't they have a bunch of regional headquarters in worthy cities in each part of the country and in. Canada and Mexico? For example, they already have something going on in Chattanooga along with Volkswagen. Chicago or Detroit would be the Midwest hq and Philadelphia could be the NE one if NY and Boston are too expensive

But if they do think of a Southeastern city that can be viable, it's Atlanta and Miami. I don't know much about Charlotte, Raleigh, Nashville, or some of the others aside from research tech. Atlanta has the airport and enough of the land, transit, and talent to hold down Amazon. Plus it has a very central location in the South aside from the Texas cities. Miami also has land and talent across Dade county and South Florida and 3 international airports. The mass transit is not as expansive as Atlanta's, but Miami has a significantly denser layout for being mostly suburban. Similar to LA in that respect. Plus Amazon( if they haven't already) could open up a Latin American headquarters there to expand their influence. Somewhere in Mexico is good as well if they wanted to go in that direction.

Anything's possble, but I don't see the benefit of having a balkanized HQ to that extent, even for a company that's Amazon's size. There are benefits to having operations in a central locations.

As far as Miami, the main thing that eliminates it is the risk of Hurricanes IMO.

JManc · #**1265** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 4:03 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023

Where? I hope you don’t mean Kodak.

Not Kodak but RIT. Plus there's U of R and Xerox.

But who will that guy who puts 10 large on Rochester and let's it ride and then bam....there's press conference with Jeff Bezos shaking hands with Mayor Lovely Warren.

skyscraperpage17 · #**1266** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 4:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023

Because it doesn’t matter.

If there isn’t a flight to Seattle, that’s because there isn’t enough demand. If Amazon opened HQ2, then there would be demand. The connectivity would be in place before a single employee moved into the new office.

I don't work in the airline industry, but in an era where airlines have been actively consolidating operations, I doubt they would just create new routes for one company. If the demand was there in the first place, the route would already exist.

C. · #**1267** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 4:10 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

I don't work in the airline industry, but in an era where airlines have been actively consolidating operations, I doubt they would just create new routes for one company. If the demand was there in the first place, the route would already exist.

How about for just one man.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/08/christie_took_a_ride_on_the_chairmans_flight.html

Quote:

United Airlines began running direct service flights between Newark and Columbia in September of 2012. The routes were dubbed "Chairman's flight" by Samson and also referred to by some as "Samson Air."

According to the court documents that charged Samson, United "decided on a weekly schedule that only included flights from Newark Airport to Columbia Airport departing at 6 p.m. on Thursdays (with a returning flight the same night) and from Columbia Airport to Newark Airport departing 6:20 a.m. on Mondays (after a flight to Columbia Airport the evening before)."

bnk · #**1268** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 4:10 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc

It's all about the Vegas odds..

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023

Rochester NY? Seriously?

I don't think that's Vegas line that's Paddy Power from Ireland.

I'm putting all of my children's college fund on Dublin. 50-1. I'm rich.

mhays · #**1269** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 4:16 PM**

I suspect they'd want more service than their own people require.

Let's say their workers/recruits/vendors/etc. justify one plane per day between any two cities. But that's crappy service. Five per day would be more convenient.

As for the Vegas odds, those reflect how people are betting. Most people don't show much clue on this topic. We don't have enough information to have much clue...the RFP is vague, and we can only guess whether they're looking for urban, peripheral, Seattle-like, not-Seattle-like, big incentives, international recruitment, cheap operating costs, etc.

The air connection point might be more about connection to the world, with Seattle being a small part of that. We don't know that either. There's a point about RFPs...they can do their own analysis of air connectivity without requesting that from responders, but putting the few specific connections on the list at least helps keep responses reasonable and might incentivize responders to think about new air service on that limited basis.

Crawford · #**1270** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 4:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

I don't work in the airline industry, but in an era where airlines have been actively consolidating operations, I doubt they would just create new routes for one company.

They already do that.

Why do you think Detroit had direct routes to Stuttgart during the DaimlerChrysler era?

If there are even only a few hundred who pay business class and regularly need to get between two cities, they'll make a route.

Crawford · #**1271** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 4:26 PM**

Wait, they're giving odds on Melbourne? They're gonna put another North American HQ in Australia?

Or are they talking Melbourne, FL, a tiny beach town? Bizarre.

JManc · #**1272** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 4:34 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford

They already do that.

Why do you think Detroit had direct routes to Stuttgart during the DaimlerChrysler era?

If there are even only a few hundred who pay business class and regularly need to get between two cities, they'll make a route.

They do this in Houston all the time. If there's a major company with assets or sizable corporate presence located elsewhere (or vice versa), an airline will create a route for them.

bnk · #**1273** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 4:45 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by mhays

...
As for the Vegas odds, those reflect how people are betting. Most people don't show much clue on this topic. We don't have enough information to have much clue...the RFP is vague, and we can only guess whether they're looking for urban, peripheral, Seattle-like, not-Seattle-like, big incentives, international recruitment, cheap operating costs, etc.

...
.

Once again those are not Vegas Odds. Those are Paddy Powers from Ireland.

skyscraperpage17 · #**1274** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 5:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford

They already do that.

Why do you think Detroit had direct routes to Stuttgart during the DaimlerChrysler era?

If there are even only a few hundred who pay business class and regularly need to get between two cities, they'll make a route.

Well that's my point. What you refer to was in a different era, when there were very few resources available to conduct long distance meetings (now you have webex and other tools) and when money was virtually growing on trees.

In the post-great recession era, where most companies are finding a billion ways to minimize costs and consolidate operations, I'm not convinced that an airline would pour a ton of resources into dedicating a flight for one company that *may* generate a profit for them 10-20 years down the line, especially in a city with only 1-2 million people that's not their hub.

GlassCity · #**1275** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 5:45 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

I wasn't dismissive of Canada. I said Toronto and Montreal met the criteria. My post pertained more to Amazon and the fallout and nothing about the shortcomings of any proposal coming out of Canada.

I noticed that you didn't address my point that it would be a PR nightmare for Amazon to have held this 'contest' in a public manner seeking out public funds, only to create 50,000 jobs at an operation called HEADQUARTERS 2 in a host city outside of America.

Who knows why Canadians have 'bowed out' of the discussion. I didn't notice that trend. Maybe there's a competing discussion thread elsewhere about it, like this one about Where the West begins (in Canada) competing with The "last eastern city" and "first western city".
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=229478

Amazon has been transparent from the beginning that this 'contest' being done in a public manner is open to all of North America, not just the US. "Holding a contest in a public manner seeking out public funds" does not in anyway imply that it would go to an American city. Therefore, if it does go to a non-American city, no one should be surprised as it would be a decision fully consistent with their original RFP.

iheartthed · #**1276** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 6:20 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10023

As you say in a later post, we’re all trying to ascertain intent here.

If one of a very brief list of requirements is access to “transit” as described above, then clearly it’s important to them. And while that language means that some suburban bus routes (which never, ever work for commuting) “check the box” technically, I can’t imagine that they are indifferent to whether there are only buses, or a good commuter rail and subway network.

Maybe they will, maybe they won't. Once we get past the language that they have established for what they mean by "transit" then we're into tea leaf reading territory. I read the RFP again in total last night and it really only mentions transit in a couple of places, but it's been perhaps the single point we have spoken most about in our 64 page (and counting) discussion. They give far more words to other criteria in the RFP that we've barely spoken about.

iheartthed · #**1277** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 6:24 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford

They already do that.

Why do you think Detroit had direct routes to Stuttgart during the DaimlerChrysler era?

If there are even only a few hundred who pay business class and regularly need to get between two cities, they'll make a route.

It was easier for them to do that from Detroit, since Detroit was at the time a major hub for NWA, and is now a major hub for Delta. This would be harder in a place like Pittsburgh, which is not a major hub or large city.

Having said that, the cities that Amazon would like to be connected to are all major hubs of at least once airline, so it shouldn't be that much of an issue.

Centropolis · #**1278** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 6:26 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford

Wait, they're giving odds on Melbourne? They're gonna put another North American HQ in Australia?

Or are they talking Melbourne, FL, a tiny beach town? Bizarre.

melbourne, fl isn't a "tiny beach town," nor is it a proper city. it's part of the greater "space coast" mess, well and anyone knows how central/south florida sort of works, anyway. it's not ideal.

10023 · #**1279** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 8:46 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc

Not Kodak but RIT. Plus there's U of R and Xerox.

But who will that guy who puts 10 large on Rochester and let's it ride and then bam....there's press conference with Jeff Bezos shaking hands with Mayor Lovely Warren.

Xerox isn’t employing the kind of talent that Amazon is looking for either.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bnk

Once again those are not Vegas Odds. Those are Paddy Powers from Ireland.

Which are Vegas odds; otherwise there would be arbitrage opportunities. Trust me, I use the Paddy Power app all the time.

10023 · #**1280** Posted **Nov 20, 2017, 8:54 PM**

Quite a lot of movement recently though. I’m currently seeing this:

Atlanta - 3/1
Austin - 7/1
Boston - 7/1
Toronto - 7/1
NYC - 14/1
Pittsburgh - 14/1
Portland - 14/1
DC - 14/1
Chicago - 16/1
Philly - 16/1
Rochester - 16/1
San Jose - 18/1
Dallas - 20/1
Denver - 20/1
Miami - 20/1

I wonder how liquid this betting is. Portland seems impossible.