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Originally Posted by Catenary
I would challenge some of your assumptions regarding the cost to operate the Trillium Line. The Light Rail Operators on the Trillium line are regular bus operators, and pay is the same.
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Interesting. I would have thought the extra training to become a certified engineer would result in a higher pay. Must be a union thing.
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The trains are bigger than busses, but the drivetrain is similar (diesel-mechanical) and wheels on rails have a much lower rolling resistance than rubber on asphalt.
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Good point about steel wheels but the trains will have more mass. I couldn't find any mass specifics for the LINT 41, but I did read that each train is 137 ft long, so a double train would be 274 ft long, which is 4.5 times as long as a New Flyer D60LFR, so presumably it has at least 4 times the mass, which requires four times the energy to accelerate.
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The trains don't have to make unnecessary stops like a bus would have to as well.
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I am comparing the Trillium Line extension to the southern transitway extension. If the transitway was at grade, there would only be two crossings for which the bus might have to stop, but a single track LRT may have to stop at sidings if they don't line up with a station. Overall I don't think it is a significant factor. Since the LRT won't be within walking distance of anyone south of Hunt Club, there will still need to be local bus service, where the frequent, unnecessary stops are, so no savings there.
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With that said, the current train fleet doesn't benefit from the scale of the bus fleet, maintaining six relatively unique vehicles compared to 50+ buses of any one style will cost more.
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True, though there will be more than 6 trains post stage 2, but still, the maintenance costs for an DMU will likely be higher than a bus.
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The key driver though is the cost per passenger. If labour is the most important factor, as it often is, the train is very effective. Each train holds multiple buses worth of people, and scales by adding additional cars without requiring additional operators. If the train is cheaper than a bus at peak periods, then the marginal cost of running mostly empty trains on evenings and weekends will be worthwhile as well.
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Capacity only matters if there is demand for the capacity. Given that there will be almost as many trains as there currently are buses south of Hunt Club, each train will likely only have as many passengers as a bus could carry. I don't see how operating one train instead of one bus will save anything.
Now if they decide to reduce the LRT service south of Hunt Club off-peak to ever half hour, since the connecting local buses would likely also only operating every half hour off peak (aligning the schedule of all the local routes to the train schedule), then they could save some money, but still not as much as on a route that will nearly fill the train during peak periods (like Barrhaven and Kanata).