Amazon HQ2 thread

[Sun Belt]

I think Amazon is going to chose a location that is the most business friendly over the long run. Does that rule out places like Chicago and Philadelphia?

It took years for Amazon to turn a profit. Once Amazon finally turned a profit, it is highly susceptible to the overall economy. Retail is one of the worst sectors in a down economy which many believe is around the corner due to the business cycle running it's course.

Revenue is up, but profits are significantly down this year over last year. What happens to Amazon when credit tightens and consumers cut back their spending?

[mhays]

"Business friendly" can mean cheap taxes, or it can mean higher taxes that pay for education, transportation, etc., as well as expensive land and high wages. Typically the big tech HQs go for the latter.

But I wouldn't be surprised if they go for an anti-Seattle to attract people who won't come here.

[Centropolis]

i'd guess boston, with chicago/dc area as wildcards.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

To your first point: not unique to Canada. In fact, you could say the same about every region in America (and several worldwide. Ohio also produces thousands of tech grads that jump to California eveyr year, rather than staying in their own state. Many eventually move out (having gained lots of money and experience) when they want a family, to be around relatives, or to find cheaper housing, enriching secondary markets.

Except that Ontario produces more students in computer, math, science, and engineering each year than the entire state of California. Google hire more from the University of Waterloo than any other school on the planet. Canadian grads are viewed favourably by tech because they're of very hire quality.

So Ontario not only produces huge numbers of tech ready people, they're of very high quality, the ones that are in SV are returning with money/experience, and the ones graduating are staying in Ontario. On top of that you have a region that attracts more immigrants each year than New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago put together. As Alphabet Executive Chairman made a point of stressing in the Sidewalk Toronto press conference, 'immigrants fuel tech'. Toronto is sitting on a gold mine and that's why tech firms are investing heavily here. The comparison to other regions does not hold up.

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

The tech sector also used to vastly more diffuse--Commodore was in Toronto (very early when they made calculators), then outside Philadelphia. Data General and DEC were in Massachusetts. Nowadays it seems nearly everything is in SF.

Except it's not. SF has a huge concentration of head offices in the tech sector but it's erroneous to assume that means it corresponds to where all the talent is located. Almost all of those bit SF tech firms employ tons of people all around the world and they're hiring where the bulk of the new talent is: beyond SF. There's a reason places like Toronto-Waterloo have 212,000 tech workers.

[iheartthed]

Techcrunch posted some of the video pitches that have been released publicly. Interesting to see the different approaches that the cities adopted in creating their pitches:

https://techcrunch.com/gallery/watch-the...sburgh-philly-las-vegas-atlanta-and-dfw/

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Except that Ontario produces more students in computer, math, science, and engineering each year than the entire state of California. Google hire more from the University of Waterloo than any other school on the planet. They're also deemed of very hire quality.

I find that very hard to believe. California has a bigger population than the entire population of Canada, and it's the preeminent tech hub of the U.S. It does not seem likely that Ontario alone would produce as many STEM degrees as California.

[Sun Belt]

Originally Posted by mhays

"Business friendly" can mean cheap taxes, or it can mean higher taxes that pay for education, transportation, etc., as well as expensive land and high wages. Typically the big tech HQs go for the latter.

But I wouldn't be surprised if they go for an anti-Seattle to attract people who won't come here.

I was thinking about a Seattle analogy and Boeing came to mind. Boeing is also highly susceptible to the global economy. Multi-billion dollar contracts don't come in during hard times.

South Carolina offered something like $750-900 million dollar incentive package to lure a Boeing assembly and manufacturing operation which Boeing accepted and it has created something like 7000 jobs for a small metro-Charleston. That's a huge impact on that town. These numbers are much much lower than what we're seeing being tossed around for Amazon's HQ2 though.

[goat314]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

I was thinking about a Seattle analogy and Boeing came to mind. Boeing is also highly susceptible to the global economy. Multi-billion dollar contracts don't come in during hard times.

South Carolina offered something like $750-900 million dollar incentive package to lure a Boeing assembly and manufacturing operation which Boeing accepted and it has created something like 7000 jobs for a small metro-Charleston. That's a huge impact on that town. These numbers are much much lower than what we're seeing being tossed around for Amazon's HQ2 though.

Yes, I remember that and St. Louis was a close second if I recall. It probably would have came to Missouri too, but at the time Missouri was not right to work (now it is).

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by goat314

Yes, I remember that and St. Louis was a close second if I recall. It probably would have came to Missouri too, but at the time Missouri was not right to work (now it is).

my understanding is that right to work has now been essentially suspended in missouri after 300,000 people signed a petition against it and over a thousand people marched on jeff city...

[10023]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

I was thinking about a Seattle analogy and Boeing came to mind. Boeing is also highly susceptible to the global economy. Multi-billion dollar contracts don't come in during hard times.

South Carolina offered something like $750-900 million dollar incentive package to lure a Boeing assembly and manufacturing operation which Boeing accepted and it has created something like 7000 jobs for a small metro-Charleston. That's a huge impact on that town. These numbers are much much lower than what we're seeing being tossed around for Amazon's HQ2 though.

The better question is about what incentives Chicago offered to lure Boeing's HQ from Seattle, or whether it was really Phil Condit's love of the Lyric Opera.

Also, I don't know why Chicago would not be considered "business-friendly". That's not just about taxes (which, let's be honest, Amazon isn't going to be made to pay anyway, wherever they go). There's a reason that there's so much construction activity despite being a union town. Chicago city authorities will bend any rule required to make it work for business. In fact it might he a tougher place for small business and a more accommodating place for big business at the same time - which is not really a contradiction when you think about it.

That view is actually echoed by the Seattle Times:

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/bo...-to-chicago-but-differences-are-crucial/

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I find that very hard to believe. California has a bigger population than the entire population of Canada, and it's the preeminent tech hub of the U.S. It does not seem likely that Ontario alone would produce as many STEM degrees as California.

From what I can tell, Cali does have more STEM grads than Ontario.

Ontario graduated 40,000 STEM grads last year. My understanding is California would be in the ballpark of 75,000

Worth saying, that is much lower in percentage of population terms.

What percentage of those in either jurisdiction are directly on point I'm unclear on.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

From what I can tell, Cali does have more STEM grads than Ontario.

Ontario graduated 40,000 STEM grads last year. My understanding is California would be in the ballpark of 75,000

Worth saying, that is much lower in percentage of population terms.

What percentage of those in either jurisdiction are directly on point I'm unclear on.

I should add, this compares degree-granting numbers; therefore it excludes diploma-granting.

I'd have to pull separate data for that.

[toddguy]

My guess is Atlanta or Dallas.

[Kippis]

Atlanta, Chicago, or Philadelphia. Chicago and Philly if you want to use the checklist verbatim. Chicago if you look at multiple site selection and transit options to ORD/surrounding region.

Chicago wins.

Maybe it's because Jeff Bezos is my uncle and he values my opinion. Or maybe it's just because I said it does.

See how great opinions are?

[Centropolis]

the people not mentioning boston....why not? i've read that there is an internal executive push for boston.

[Sun Belt]

Has anybody else thought that the reason Amazon has held this 'contest' is because they know how fragile or susceptible they are to the business cycle and to get those public dollars while you can before things tighten up? Land a deal at the peak of prosperity in 2017 before the next downturn. Do it now, or wait 5-10 years for the cycle to be in full bloom.

[dc_denizen]

re: boston, this is an interesting table showing MIT students by place of origin:

http://web.mit.edu/registrar/stats/geo/

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by Centropolis

the people not mentioning boston....why not? i've read that there is an internal executive push for boston.

As with the Bay Area, probably the land is too expensive.

[bnk]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenha...ter-three-experts-weigh-in/#111cc1f441da

Oct 24, 2017 @ 10:08 AM 17,870

Where Should Amazon Locate Its New Headquarters? Three Experts Weigh In


Forbes asked three site selection experts with a combined 100 years of expertise in economic development what they think Amazon should do.

...


We know Amazon’s criteria, but we don’t know their relative importance: are they all equal or are some more important? Beyond numbers, where would Amazon feel it fits culturally? I don’t know, but I'll plunge ahead with a prediction: Chicago.
Chicago typically greatly exceeds Amazon’s objective criteria: a large, diverse population, talented workforce, a global city, worldwide air access, a vibrant downtown that recently has attracted a string of prominent headquarters, extensive public transport, internationally-ranked universities locally and more nearby including the University of Illinois’ top-ranked IT program. The current Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics recipient teaches at the University of Chicago and you can get there on a lakefront bike path.
Amazon wants culture, quality of life and cities to “think big and creatively.” Few places equal Chicago’s art, culture, sports, food and music...

...

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

From what I can tell, Cali does have more STEM grads than Ontario.

Ontario graduated 40,000 STEM grads last year. My understanding is California would be in the ballpark of 75,000

Worth saying, that is much lower in percentage of population terms.

What percentage of those in either jurisdiction are directly on point I'm unclear on.

Californians have a much wider selection of national options for school than Ontarians. Many STEM students probably leave the state for school for various reasons including just wanting to get as far from parents as possible. I mean, there's 49 other states, each with a state unversity system and a selection of private universities.

I had a Californian roommate at school in North Carolina.