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  #681  
Old Posted Oct 23, 2017, 9:46 PM
bnk bnk is offline
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Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
the value of incentives is definitely going to be secondary to the human capital, networking, and infrastructural assets of the chosen city. These might be worth $10s of billions, compared to 2-5$ billion in incentives.

Places like Boston, Austin (and Seattle, SF etc), maybe LA, have a proven pipeline to create, fund, and commercialize new technologies and companies. Amazon (and any other tech company) will need this ecosystem to thrive. Toronto, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and many other places don't have that capacity. even Chicago is debatable. (Chicago, Dallas and Atlanta are more about old-school corporate headquarters; Philadelphia is poorly run and thrives off of the same media/finance complex as NYC; Toronto, produces little in the way of new technology companies given its size and the amount of immigrants)

....
Your data is outdated.

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/2...hrinking-city-growing-wealthier-educated

October 04, 2017

Chicago is now the nation's best-educated big city

Chicago is now the nation's best-educated big city

Even as Chicago's population shrinks, the city is becoming notably wealthier and better educated, both in absolute and relative terms compared to other cities and the country as a whole, newly available U.S. Census figures show.

Combined with other data, the continuing tale-of-two-cities story suggests large numbers of lower-income African-Americans are fleeing Chicago even as somewhat lesser numbers of better-educated and higher-earning whites, Asians and blacks are coming in. That's leaving the city better off in some ways than it was a decade ago, but smaller.

...

According to American Community Survey data compiled by Zotti, the share of Chicagoans over age 25 with bachelor's degrees or higher leapt from 29.3 percent in 2006 to 38.5 percent last year, with the increase particularly strong since 2011. That hike was larger than any of the country's four other largest cities—New York, Los Angeles, Houston and Philadelphia—and more than twice the 4.3 percent national increase.

Stunningly, a greater share of adults in once-blue-collar Chicago now hold degrees—38.5 percent—than in New York (37 percent) or the U.S. as a whole (31.3 percent).

...

Particularly interesting is what's happening in the African-American community.

For more than a decade, this cohort overall has been fleeing Chicago in stunning numbers, down more than 42,000 just last year, according to ACS data. But the city gained 18,000 black residents with college degrees since 2011, according to Zotti, the greatest of the 10 U.S. cities with the most black residents.










https://www.forbes.com/sites/petesaunder...ted-millennials-are-moving/#2980ab26d3cc

Jan 12, 2017 @ 02:41 PM

Where Educated Millennials Are Moving

Pete Saunders


Chicago is a significant outlier in its attraction and concentration of educated Millennials. The Chicago numbers are worthy of closer inspection. At the metro level, as expected, Chicago has the third highest number of educated Millennials, after New York and Los Angeles. However, between 2010 and 2015, that number grew only 7.2%, the lowest figure of the 33 metros examined. Furthermore, the number of educated Millennials in outlying suburban areas grew less than one percent in the same period. But an interesting transition is taking place in Chicago. Despite the city representing about one-quarter of the metro area's population, about half of educated Millennials in the metro area are choosing to live in the city, and that number is rapidly rising.
     
     
  #682  
Old Posted Oct 23, 2017, 9:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Jonesy55 View Post
The savings on employer healthcare costs would seem to be a big plus for Toronto. Does Canada have higher rates of employer payroll tax type costs equivalent to Fica to reduce that advantage though?
Canada's payroll tax burden is similar on employees to the US one, with slight variances based on income.

However, the US payroll taxes on employers are notably higher.
     
     
  #683  
Old Posted Oct 23, 2017, 10:12 PM
BrownTown BrownTown is offline
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
They're like Google; they have their fingers in everything. Amazon Web Services, Prime Music/ Video, Tablets, Echo as well as a bunch of other crap. Most of their money actually comes from AWS.
No, they're not like Google at all. Yes, they have their fingers in a lot of things, but their core competency is logistics. The majority of Amazon employees are doing menial labor making like $15/hr. Obviously these aren't the sort of employees who will be in HQ2, but the management structure for them will be.
     
     
  #684  
Old Posted Oct 23, 2017, 11:20 PM
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If Amazon is going to score the criteria as they are presented in the rfp, than I think Chicago, Atlanta, and Philadelphia have the best shot.

However, I suspect that the human factor that's mentioned earlier will way heavily, and I can see Amazon latching on to a city that has a heavy tech-millenial pull, and/or a place that can easily draw from a large and very diverse population.

That leaves thinking it boils down to:
  • Denver - heavy pull for Amazon's demographic, similar to Seattle but sunny, cheaper
  • Austin - very heavy pull for Amazon's demo, sunny, in Texas so huge diversity of potential employees, UT is a huge bonus
  • Dallas - similar to Austin but with the size to efficiently absorb 50k employees and transit, and the best governed of the large sunbelt metros. However, it doesn't have the pull for Amazon's crowd

Narrowing it down a bit, Texas always wins
     
     
  #685  
Old Posted Oct 23, 2017, 11:50 PM
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And Japan didn't have any significant auto brands in 1970. Things change.
So why did my med school roomate buy a Datsun (now Nissan) a few months into 1971? They were quite popular in the US at the time as I recall. 2 more years into that decade, I myself owned a Toyota while living in Japan.

1970 Datsun 240Z, a hot machine in its day:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_S30
     
     
  #686  
Old Posted Oct 23, 2017, 11:57 PM
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Originally Posted by bnk View Post
Chicago is now the nation's best-educated big city
Only if you count the 5 biggest as the only "big cities" in the country. That article says its the best educated (by perccentage with bachelor's degrees) of the 5 biggest. Cities like San Francisco, San Jose and Seattle aren't counted.

Leaving aside even medium sized college town/cities, I'd certainly count Washington, Boston and San Francisco as "big cities":


https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/27/the-top-10-most-and-least-educated-cities-in-the-u-s.html

Oops! Where's Chicago?
     
     
  #687  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2017, 12:01 AM
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Originally Posted by BrownTown View Post
No, they're not like Google at all. Yes, they have their fingers in a lot of things, but their core competency is logistics. The majority of Amazon employees are doing menial labor making like $15/hr. Obviously these aren't the sort of employees who will be in HQ2, but the management structure for them will be.
Logistics isn't Amazon's core competency - supply chain optimization is an enabler / enhancer of Amazon's key differentiator: data segmentation, specifically consumer purchase data.

Amazon's profits come from two sources: data management solutions (ex. cloud computing) and massive media + consumer data deals with the P&Gs and Unilevers of the world. These global deals are worth $hundreds of millions a year to Amazon's bottom line and are entirely predicated on being able to provide granular audience segments to consumer brands, to target with customized media deliveries both inside the Amazon shopping platform and among the general digital inventory available.

This is why Amazon is pushing Alexa so hard: the user data these devices mine daily is so valuable that Amazon would give these devices away for free if they weren't able to find people willing to pay for them. Commissions on sales, device sales, Prime membership fees, etc. just help balance the cost side of the P&L.

The media side of Amazon is a massive, hugely profitable beast which seems to be forgotten in this whole HQ2 discussion. A good chunk of those 50,000 new well-paid employees will be media execs, media sales, media traffickers, and ad tech team members. A pipeline to these types of fresh grads will be key.
     
     
  #688  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2017, 12:15 AM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
And Japan didn't have any significant auto brands in 1970. Things change.

Toronto has historically produced lots of tech talent but they headed to Silicon Valley. Toronto based tech firms (ATI) almost always got swallowed up by larger rivals from Silicon Valley. The ones that managed to stay independent either went belly up (Nortel) or had to completely re-invent themselves (Blackberry). Today a lot of that Canadian talent in Silicon Valley is heading home with money and experience under their belts. Canadian tech grads who used to head to Silicon Valley en masse are staying in Canada to launch their companies.

Put it all together and the Toronto Region added more technology jobs last year than any other region and moved up to 4th in north America (212,500) for number of tech jobs narrowly behind New York (246,180) and Washington (243,360). So more than Boston, Seattle, Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, Denver, Vancouver, Montreal, etc.

To an outsiders perspective it may look like the Toronto region doesn't produce a lot of tech. Closer examination shows that it does. It's already 4th and if it continues growing as it has, should be in 2nd by 2020. And btw, Toronto-Waterloo does have a strong tech eco-system.
To your first point: not unique to Canada. In fact, you could say the same about every region in America (and several worldwide. Ohio also produces thousands of tech grads that jump to California eveyr year, rather than staying in their own state. Many eventually move out (having gained lots of money and experience) when they want a family, to be around relatives, or to find cheaper housing, enriching secondary markets.

The tech sector also used to vastly more diffuse--Commodore was in Toronto (very early when they made calculators), then outside Philadelphia. Data General and DEC were in Massachusetts. Nowadays it seems nearly everything is in SF.

to your second point: this seems to be based on a very broad definition of technology jobs.
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  #689  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2017, 12:39 AM
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..and as I've said on the other thread, I think mature complexes like SF and Seattle (and NYC for that matter) are terrible places to start and incubate new technologies and future industries. Amazon as Shawn describes it is basically Sears reborn for the 21st century....not exactly flying cars or Mr. Fusion.

The personal computer revolution was brought about not by some government's 5-year plan, but it grew off of the efforts and prodigious genius of individuals like Gates, Wozniak, Tramiel, Cray, early chip designers like Chuck Peddle, the founders of Atari and Nintendo, etc etc.

Cities should focus more on identifying, attracting and/or educating the next Elon Musk or Henry Ford...individuals that can change the course of an industry and create a home-grown amazon or two.
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  #690  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2017, 12:52 AM
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To be fair, I've described Amazon as-is today. This isn't necessarily where Amazon wants to solely be 10 years down the road.

I guess to roll back a bit on my first post above, Amazon wants supply chain optimization to be entirely under their control, and the only way to do that is to own the whole chain. Amazon can't rely on Fed Ex and UPS indefinitely; they need an internal shipping solution which can scale on a dime. They're still looking to invest tons into new logistics tech, especially around miniaturization.

The question is, will Amazon try to develop this in-house, will they buy some startups, or will they try to do a bit of both? If it's the former, they will want to be located near other nanotech / miniaturization clusters. If it's the later two, they don't necessarily need to be physically close to where the R&D happens.
     
     
  #691  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2017, 1:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Shawn View Post
Logistics isn't Amazon's core competency - supply chain optimization is an enabler / enhancer of Amazon's key differentiator: data segmentation, specifically consumer purchase data.

Amazon's profits come from two sources: data management solutions (ex. cloud computing) and massive media + consumer data deals with the P&Gs and Unilevers of the world. These global deals are worth $hundreds of millions a year to Amazon's bottom line and are entirely predicated on being able to provide granular audience segments to consumer brands, to target with customized media deliveries both inside the Amazon shopping platform and among the general digital inventory available.

This is why Amazon is pushing Alexa so hard: the user data these devices mine daily is so valuable that Amazon would give these devices away for free if they weren't able to find people willing to pay for them. Commissions on sales, device sales, Prime membership fees, etc. just help balance the cost side of the P&L.

The media side of Amazon is a massive, hugely profitable beast which seems to be forgotten in this whole HQ2 discussion. A good chunk of those 50,000 new well-paid employees will be media execs, media sales, media traffickers, and ad tech team members. A pipeline to these types of fresh grads will be key.
It's not so much a question of where their profits come from, it's a question of what sort of employees they hire. For instance you mention media types which are very different than computer programmers for instance and presumably found in very different cities. The city whose workforce is most compatible is a question of what these 50,000 hypothetical employees will be doing. Everyone keeps acting like they're going to all be computer scientists and engineers but I find it highly unlikely even 20% will be.
     
     
  #692  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2017, 1:29 AM
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Everyone keeps acting like they're going to all be computer scientists and engineers but I find it highly unlikely even 20% will be.
Totally agree with you on this. Especially if HQ2 ends up being the EMEA-facing side - then you'll see tons of media sales, data analytics, and ad tech staff to service a bunch of linguistically-diverse markets with lots of media nuances to master.
     
     
  #693  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2017, 1:50 AM
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^^Wouldn't it be fun to have the ACTUAL check list of considerations off which the Amazon executive suite is working?
When you write proposals for a living, lesson #1 is to follow direction, but lesson #2 is to look deeper than the RFP.

This one is pretty close-to-the-vest. There's much more that can be inferred or guessed at.
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  #694  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2017, 11:50 AM
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So was there actually a proposal sent for Schaumburg? Please no, oy vey. Even without the incredibly embarrassing optics of moving into Motorola Solutions' wasteland, the area would really benefit from more dense residential near Woodfield. Not that Amazon doesn't work its own fiscal and civic magic, but come on.
Schaumburg and Oak Brook are non-starters, but their inclusion was no doubt necessary to secure the support of Republican state pols.
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  #695  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2017, 1:54 PM
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Only if you count the 5 biggest as the only "big cities" in the country. That article says its the best educated (by perccentage with bachelor's degrees) of the 5 biggest. Cities like San Francisco, San Jose and Seattle aren't counted.

Leaving aside even medium sized college town/cities, I'd certainly count Washington, Boston and San Francisco as "big cities":


https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/27/the-top-10-most-and-least-educated-cities-in-the-u-s.html

Oops! Where's Chicago?
But SF, Seattle, Boston, etc aren’t among the “five biggest cities”. They are big “metros”.

What Bnk posted above illustrates how much a disconnect there is between how Chicago is being portrayed by the media/its perception by fly-by observers who simply see murders and declining population, and the other noteworthy story that it is undergoing significant restructuring into a much wealthier and educated city, and at a rate far more dramatic (when compared to its own metro) than anywhere else.

That story doesn’t get much attention, hence the false perception among the general public that it’s simply an aging rustbelt city that’s mostly blue collar, but with a really nice skyline.
     
     
  #696  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2017, 2:06 PM
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No, they're not like Google at all. Yes, they have their fingers in a lot of things, but their core competency is logistics. The majority of Amazon employees are doing menial labor making like $15/hr. Obviously these aren't the sort of employees who will be in HQ2, but the management structure for them will be.
They may have a lot of non-tech people in their distribution centers but they are still a tech company at their core. They revolutionized online retail and now compete with Netflix, Microsoft, Apple and Google in a lot of areas; cloud services, IoT, phones, tablets, smart devices, online video, etc. Jeff Bezos has degrees in engineering and computer science. He's a geek.

They are not like Wal-Mart who is at their core, a department store that later embraced online retail...and are actually doing well at it.
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  #697  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2017, 2:30 PM
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So why did my med school roomate buy a Datsun (now Nissan) a few months into 1971? They were quite popular in the US at the time as I recall. 2 more years into that decade, I myself owned a Toyota while living in Japan.

1970 Datsun 240Z, a hot machine in its day:
My parents had a blue Datsun 310. It was either a late 70's model or perhaps 1980. Reliable and it lasted forever with minimal maintenance. My oldest sibling drove it to high school in the 90's and when she went off to college my parents donated it to an automotive school, otherwise it would probably still be running.
     
     
  #698  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2017, 2:31 PM
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So why did my med school roomate buy a Datsun (now Nissan) a few months into 1971? They were quite popular in the US at the time as I recall. 2 more years into that decade, I myself owned a Toyota while living in Japan.

1970 Datsun 240Z, a hot machine in its day:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_S30
I was gonna say; as a child growing up in 1970s Los Angeles, I remember plenty of Toyotas, Datsuns, Subarus...
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  #699  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2017, 2:50 PM
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So why did my med school roomate buy a Datsun (now Nissan) a few months into 1971?
That was answered in Post #677. Wrong year written but the point stands.
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  #700  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2017, 2:58 PM
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It's amazing how many cities claim "top for tech employment."

Tech employment can be counted in a trillion ways. The trick is picking the way that favors your city.

But I do agree that other tech centers are rising and Toronto seems like it's one of them.
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