Who are you choosing for mayor this election?

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

If you're pro infrastructure Bill Smith should be the last person to get your vote. Him wanting to put a hold on the green line will delay it by at least 4 years and could even cost provincial funding for the project. His PC style of governance will mean building during booms and holding the purse strings closed when things are cheaper to build in the downturn.

That's my number one fear about him and why he won't be getting my vote.

[Calgarian]

Originally Posted by mytwocents

Yes he should be un-electable but people forget and people are stupid.

I don't think people forget, people just don't have a clue in the first place. The more I pay attention to politics and politicians, the more I realize people just choose an allegiance and stick with it. People rarely seem willing to change opinion or allegiance, they just base their own beliefs on whatever their favourite politician / pundit says they should believe. People allow their ideologies to be dictated to them instead of sitting down to think about what it is they actually stand for.

[suburbia]

Here is my prediction for tonight:
Nenshi >55%
Smith <35%

The bigger question will be if the Ready2Engage / Saving Calgary slate will succeed in the ward races.

[O-tacular]

I’m a lot less certain about Nenshi winning. Just overheard one lady in passing saying she voted (didn’t hear for who but assume it’s BS) because they were a lot less arrogant and show boaty. I hope Nenshi wins but if he does it will be by the skin of his teeth. Today is bringing back memories of the US election where everyone assumed Hillary was a safe winner.

[artvandelay]

Voted for Bill. I'm not enamoured with him, but Nenshi has been very poor from a fiscal standpoint - after casting himself as a "fiscal conservative" in 2010. What a joke that was!

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Here is my prediction for tonight:
Nenshi >55%
Smith <35%

The bigger question will be if the Ready2Engage / Saving Calgary slate will succeed in the ward races.

You think Nenshi is going to win by more than 20 percentage points? Is that what Brian Singh's never released internal polling is showing? At the ward level if Carra and Druh both go I'll be very happy. DCU should probably go as well. I don't want Woolley to win but the alternative doesn't look any better. Another touch decision for me.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

You think Nenshi is going to win by more than 20 percentage points? Is that what Brian Singh's never released internal polling is showing? At the ward level if Carra and Druh both go I'll be very happy. DCU should probably go as well. I don't want Woolley to win but the alternative doesn't look any better. Another touch decision for me.

When I say BS that is Bill Smith. I don't know who Brian Singh is. Have never met anyone with that name. My numbers were a complete guess.

I would be happy with DCU being defeated, but I much like Carra, Druh and Woolley.

[DoubleK]

I agree with the sentiment about DCU, but I'm not sure who would replace her.

Nobody came and knocked on my door, but that's probably because our community has flipped between 13 and 14 each of the past three municipal elections.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Here is my prediction for tonight:
Nenshi >55%
Smith <35%

The bigger question will be if the Ready2Engage / Saving Calgary slate will succeed in the ward races.

Pretty well bang-on with the Nenshi number. Smith did a bit better than I expected. My comments on the three Mainstreet Quito polls proven correct - they were fake news.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Pretty well bang-on with the Nenshi number. Smith did a bit better than I expected. My comments on the three Mainstreet Quito polls proven correct - they were fake news.

Smith only did a bit better than you predicted? You predicted Nenshi would win by 20% and he ended up winning by 1%.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Smith only did a bit better than you predicted? You predicted Nenshi would win by 20% and he ended up winning by 1%.

To clarify:

I predicted Nenshi to be over 55% and he had 51.4% - I'm considering that close. Critically, he had a clear majority of the vote overall, and what many people forget is that this is drastically more than his 2010 win.

I predicted that Smith would lose, which he did, and predicted (jokingly, but you wouldn't have known that) that he'd have <35% of the vote. He actually got 43.7%. The spread was 8%, a net of about 30,000 votes.

Not sure where you are getting the winning by 1% part. That's pain false.

My particular focus, and something pundits need to pay attention to, was the commentary on Mainstreet Research and Quito Maggi, and the efforts of Ken King and his friends at Postmedia.

[Habanero]

Both candidates did better than I expected. It really was a two man race, and I was right about the conservatives blowing it by propping up Bill Smith. If it was a two man race with Chabot as the main challenger, he would have won it. For Smith to get that many votes with no experience and no platform....no anything, that tells you something. I don't know one person who actually liked him as a candidate, only that he was the best chance to unseat Nenshi.

[CrossedTheTracks]

All of the polling was pretty dreadfully off, just a matter of who was more or less worse. Actual Nenshi win over Smith: 7.7 % points.

Asking Canadians showed 15% lead; off by 7.3 % points. Forum Research showed 17% lead; off by 9.3 % points. Mainstreet has the most 'splaining to do, off by 20% points and more.

Standard weasel words: Of course, polls are snapshots in time, and not a prediction of the final results. But being off by a minimum of 7.3% points, at best, brings a tear to my politics/math-geek eyes.

[CrossedTheTracks]

Curious if anyone has a sense of whether there will be a slight ideological shift on council, compared to before? I don't know much about the newcomers...

[Calgarian]

Yes! take a hike Smith...

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Calgarian

Yes! take a hike Smith...

[Calgarian]

So is Larry Heather still banned from City Hall?

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by CrossedTheTracks

Curious if anyone has a sense of whether there will be a slight ideological shift on council, compared to before? I don't know much about the newcomers...

I guess the question is, what ideology is council? I don't think it has any one ideology. They are about smart solutions, and that's that.

I did note that two of the new ones have graduate degrees. Farkas comes a bit across like Smith - wants to trash the SW-BRT. Hopefully he is willing to listen to logic and expertise.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by CrossedTheTracks

All of the polling was pretty dreadfully off, just a matter of who was more or less worse. Actual Nenshi win over Smith: 7.7 % points.

Asking Canadians showed 15% lead; off by 7.3 % points. Forum Research showed 17% lead; off by 9.3 % points. Mainstreet has the most 'splaining to do, off by 20% points and more.

Standard weasel words: Of course, polls are snapshots in time, and not a prediction of the final results. But being off by a minimum of 7.3% points, at best, brings a tear to my politics/math-geek eyes.

It depends how you measure this IE based on spread or on what an individual actually achieved. Mainstreet also did this three times, with internal data all over the place (remember the one where youth were way ahead with Smith, and another with females way ahead with smith?).

Mainstreet has refused to actually provide the specific question(s) they asked, which is the rub.

[DoubleK]

Turnout seemed pretty good for a muni election.

Looks like vote splitting allowed DCU to get through in Ward 13.