Rural Commuter Rail

[AndyMEng]

Can we bring the conversation back to what we think is feasible, instead of just going over and over JP's arguments?

Such as:

1. Trunk lines running north-west and south-west radiating from Bayshore on the existing train beds, with destinations in Arnprior (or further) and Smiths Falls (or further), with a small trainset every half hour from 6am - 9pm daily, and a small platform to alight at 6 or so stations each.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by AndyMEng

Can we bring the conversation back to what we think is feasible, instead of just going over and over JP's arguments?

Such as:

1. Trunk lines running north-west and south-west radiating from Bayshore on the existing train beds, with destinations in Arnprior (or further) and Smiths Falls (or further), with a small trainset every half hour from 6am - 9pm daily, and a small platform to alight at 6 or so stations each.

Who pays?

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

And if property value increases are less than expected there may not be enough revenue for any type of regular service at all.

That is certainly a good point. Housing prices have been rising since about 1998, but were very flat for about 10 years prior to that. Would the stations be able to survive if housing prices were to flatten out for an extended period again?

[AndyMEng]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Who pays?

I dunno, riders and the gov't as usual?

Seems to me the cheapest option to get rail to people in that area. (Dont' know enough about the other directions to have a opinion)

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by AndyMEng

I dunno, riders and the gov't as usual?

Seems to me the cheapest option to get rail to people in that area. (Dont' know enough about the other directions to have a opinion)

If the intent is to serve the existing population, Arnprior has 10k people and Smiths Falls has 9k people. Not sure that is enough of a tax base (or ridership base) for the kinds of costs involved. If the intent is to encourage more sprawl then I think such a plan would run into the same criticisms that Mr. Potvin's plans have encountered.

Overall rural commuter rail seems like a solution in search of a problem.

[Joseph Potvin]

Originally Posted by roger1818

That is certainly a good point. Housing prices have been rising since about 1998, but were very flat for about 10 years prior to that. Would the stations be able to survive if housing prices were to flatten out for an extended period again?

The relevant values are leases/rents and sales. Your comment only considers sales. Leases/rents are monthly. Sales average about every 20 years.

The PPR is focused solely on the net increment to leases/rents and sales values attributable to the metropolitan train service. Therefore the base value doesn't matter, except through some indirect ways.

In a flat or depressed housing market, the useful question to consider is whether demand for easy access to metropolitan rail would increase or decrease. We think it will tend to increase, and that this would be significant enough to offset the decline in the base housing prices.


Joseph Potvin
Director General | Directeur général
Moose Consortium (Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises) | www.letsgomoose.com
Consortium Moose (Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Enterprises) | www.onyvamoose.com

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by AndyMEng

Can we bring the conversation back to what we think is feasible, instead of just going over and over JP's arguments?

Such as:

1. Trunk lines running north-west and south-west radiating from Bayshore on the existing train beds, with destinations in Arnprior (or further) and Smiths Falls (or further), with a small trainset every half hour from 6am - 9pm daily, and a small platform to alight at 6 or so stations each.

In a normal universe where we don't allow private investors to upend regional planning, we don't build rail transit to towns of a few thousand people unless they happen to be on the rail line to a larger terminus.

These cities would be well served by regional bus service (like GO bus service in the GTA). But you'd never see anybody suggesting construction of a brand new rail line to such small towns.

And of course, the only way Mr. Potvin can come even the slightest bit close to his vision to promote massive amounts of sprawl around those small towns to boost their populations to a point where transit is economically viable.

Ask him if transit is feasible with today's populations level in those communities. He won't say yes.....(more than likely he'll just ignore the question and refuse to answer it).

[Charles5]

On 1 July Moose Rail signed a letter of intent with a number of investors. That group allowed for a 120 day period for initial review to determine if there is sufficient merit to follow on with a full feasibility study. I strongly suspect that after that initial review that this will for the most part be over with. I believe the cost of the full feasibility study, were they to do that, was in the order of $5M. I can't imagine any investors putting up that much money up front even for a study when it is obvious that there is virtually no chance of success for all the reasons that have been previously discussed here (insufficient population density, lack of rail capacity, poor state of existing rail infrastructure, inability to collect revenue voluntarily from local property owners, etc, etc).

That 120 day period ends in less than 2 weeks. I look forward to hearing the results and seeing the death of this. My guess though is that Joseph Potvin will still try to push this idea forward even after the investors have concluded that it's simply not possible, continuing to be a thorn in the side of municipal governments all the while trying to impede the actual development of other projects such as improved light rail within the city of Ottawa.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by Charles5

That 120 day period ends in less than 2 weeks. I look forward to hearing the results and seeing the death of this. My guess though is that Joseph Potvin will still try to push this idea forward even after the investors have concluded that it's simply not possible, continuing to be a thorn in the side of municipal governments all the while trying to impede the actual development of other projects such as improved light rail within the city of Ottawa.

Neither MOOSE or Mr. Potvin are impeding future light rail projects. If anything, you could argue it'd be partially beneficial to the city since they wouldn't have to spend $60 million on repairing the PoW bridge.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

Neither MOOSE or Mr. Potvin are impeding future light rail projects. If anything, you could argue it'd be partially beneficial to the city since they wouldn't have to spend $60 million on repairing the PoW bridge.

Not 100% true.

• Moose filed a complaint against the city to Transport Canada that they are blocking access to the PoW bridge with the new Bayview station.
• Moose wants to take over the current Trillium line tracks, severing a direct connection between the Stage 2 southern extension and the Confederation line.

Neither of these will likely have much impact, as they will both likely just go away, but it shows intent to replace the city's plans with their own.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Not 100% true.

• Moose filed a complaint against the city to Transport Canada that they are blocking access to the PoW bridge with the new Bayview station.
• Moose wants to take over the current Trillium line tracks, severing a direct connection between the Stage 2 southern extension and the Confederation line.

Neither of these will likely have much impact, as they will both likely just go away, but it shows intent to replace the city's plans with their own.

But that's not really having an impact on any existing or planned projects (as you said). If the city ever finds it in their interest to find a deal with Mr. Potvin then that'd be fine, but it's not as though MOOSE is actively sabotaging any city projects.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

But that's not really having an impact on any existing or planned projects (as you said). If the city ever finds it in their interest to find a deal with Mr. Potvin then that'd be fine, but it's not as though MOOSE is actively sabotaging any city projects.

If Moose gets access to the line then the city would have to shut down the trillium line. That sounds like an impact to me.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by acottawa

If Moose gets access to the line then the city would have to shut down the trillium line. That sounds like an impact to me.

If. The city still owns the line. Ultimately, the'll get a say in how MOOSE would be able to use the line. MOOSE saying that they want to use the line isn't killing and won't kill Stage 2 upgrades.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

If. The city still owns the line. Ultimately, the'll get a say in how MOOSE would be able to use the line. MOOSE saying that they want to use the line isn't killing and won't kill Stage 2 upgrades.

The city doesn't want Moose at all. Moose's business model is that that the CTA will overrule the city and give Moose access, which means the city would loose control. Even if it were possible to run both services simultaneously (and as per earlier discussions on this thread regarding why it isn't) the city would have to dramatically reduce service, which would make the Trillium upgrades pretty pointless.

[OCCheetos]

Originally Posted by acottawa

The city doesn't want Moose at all. Moose's business model is that that the CTA will overrule the city and give Moose access, which means the city would loose control. Even if it were possible to run both services simultaneously (and as per earlier discussions on this thread regarding why it isn't) the city would have to dramatically reduce service, which would make the Trillium upgrades pretty pointless.

I seem to recall MOOSE offering money to pay for double tracking more of, if not all of the rest of the line. That would help.

In any case, none of what you mentioned is currently having any effect on the city. We'll just have to wait for the feasibility report to be published before making any real further judgments on it.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

I seem to recall MOOSE offering money to pay for double tracking more of, if not all of the rest of the line. That would help.

Mr Potvin made no mention of that in his affidavit (point 19). The entire proposed budget for all rail infrastructure is 500M which is probably less than the double tracking would cost.

https://www.letsgomoose.ca/moose-consort...t-essential-railways-in-canadas-capital/

Originally Posted by OCCheetos

In any case, none of what you mentioned is currently having any effect on the city. We'll just have to wait for the feasibility report to be published before making any real further judgments on it.

I'm not sure I follow your logic. If the city staff were filing the paperwork to expropriate your house you would not consider it a problem until the actual bulldozer showed up?

[Charles5]

Just to clarify. My comments yesterday about Joseph Potvin and Moose being a potential impediment to the city were thinking more so about what would happen in the case that no financing becomes available to him. In that case of course there would be no physical impediments to the City's development of LRT since there would be no MOOSE train. What I was considering was the potential for the City to have to consume time, energy, money, etc on responding to ongoing challenges by MOOSE at the CTA, Competition Bureau, courts, etc as I don't see Joseph Potvin actually ever accepting the fact that a regional rail line under this proposed plan is simply not viable.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I'm not sure I follow your logic. If the city staff were filing the paperwork to expropriate your house you would not consider it a problem until the actual bulldozer showed up?

Only if your name is Arthur Dent.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Only if your name is Arthur Dent.

Beware of the leopard.

[Allandale25]

Originally Posted by acottawa

The city doesn't want Moose at all. Moose's business model is that that the CTA will overrule the city and give Moose access, which means the city would loose control. Even if it were possible to run both services simultaneously (and as per earlier discussions on this thread regarding why it isn't) the city would have to dramatically reduce service, which would make the Trillium upgrades pretty pointless.

And, the CTA still hasn't made any recent decisions and it's almost November. Meanwhile, I assume the Phase 2 process, which is funded and studied, continues on it's already planned timeline with no impediments on the horizon.