YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[trofirhen]

Can one assume that all these prices on both sides of the border have been converted and standardized into either $CAD or $US ?

[Lancaster]

Originally Posted by stiffdeadman

Perhaps something that may have a minor affect on YVR, if it's even marketed up here. United has announced that they will be joining Alaska in offering flights out of Paine Field. They will offer a total of 6 flights per day from Everett to Denver and San Francisco. No break down was given how the 6 will be divided. So with Alaska's 9 flights, that's already a total of 15 per day. With 2 gates the terminal is almost at capacity before opening.

I wouldn't sweat it too much. It looks like United is probably (other than AC) the largest US-bound carrier at YVR. And they're both Star Alliance and recent news suggests they're looking to work together more on cross-border travel.

[Johnny Aussie]

YVR has shown enormous growth from 2013 - 2016. Almost 1,000,000 more passengers in 2016 compared to 2013.
YYZ also approx 1,000,000 more during the same period. YYC and YEG both showed significant declines.

YVR almost 4,000,000 in 2016!

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&id=4010039

Just need to manipulate the tables to get full data.

Details by route:

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lan...Val=1&p1=1&p2=38&tabMode=dataTable&csid=

Some very significant growth in some markets....

Look at BOS, ORD, LAX, NYC, MCO, PSP, SAN, SFO, SAN and IAD to name a few...

There were only 4 YVR-USA markets that showed declines between 2015 and 2016 but even they were insignificant.

[LeftCoaster]

I guess it's time to dust off the ol route calculator I used a year or so back.

These were my old extrapolated estimates based off 2016 transborder growth rates:


I'm guessing it's still going to be pretty accurate, with a few tweeks here and there.

[ACT7]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

YVR has shown enormous growth from 2013 - 2016. Almost 1,000,000 more passengers in 2016 compared to 2013.
YYZ also approx 1,000,000 more during the same period. YYC and YEG both showed significant declines.

YVR almost 4,000,000 in 2016!

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&id=4010039

Just need to manipulate the tables to get full data.

Details by route:

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lan...Val=1&p1=1&p2=38&tabMode=dataTable&csid=

Some very significant growth in some markets....

Look at BOS, ORD, LAX, NYC, MCO, PSP, SAN, SFO, SAN and IAD to name a few...

There were only 4 YVR-USA markets that showed declines between 2015 and 2016 but even they were insignificant.

Hasn't transborder traffic at YYZ increased by about 2.2 million between 2013 and 2016?

https://www.torontopearson.com/uploadedF...cs/June%202017%20Passenger%20Summary.pdf

Or are you talking O&D only?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by ACT7

Hasn't transborder traffic at YYZ increased by about 2.2 million between 2013 and 2016?

https://www.torontopearson.com/uploadedF...cs/June%202017%20Passenger%20Summary.pdf

Or are you talking O&D only?

The source I presented is O&D only.

Comparing 2016 to 2013:

YYZ grew by 1,024,947 up 15.4%
YVR grew by 958,857 up 32.2%
YUL grew by 344,939 up 13.1%
YYC decreased by 130,906 down 5.3%
YEG decreased by 246,708 down 18.0%

TTL 2016 O&D journeys (inbound and outbound)

YYZ 7,662,569
YVR 3,939,852
YUL 2,986,810
YYC 2,351,496
YEG 1,125,763

YVR is now almost 1,000,000 ahead of YUL and 1.6M ahead of YYC.
In 2013 YVR was only about 340,000 ahead of YUL and 500,000 ahead of YYC.

With 2017 growth YTD I would expect the gaps to widen even further.

YYZ will continue to be in a league of its own.

[Canadian74]

Is the big announcement of a new airline at YVR still coming?

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Canadian74

Is the big announcement of a new airline at YVR still coming?

That's what I'm waiting for..... that and the new "game changing, ground breaking" destination.... waiting like a hungry, salivating wolf. Hope it's not a letdown!

[Johnny Aussie]

Didn't notice this the first time I looked but can anybody shed some light on this.

June 2017 Transborder stats indicate a significant amount of charter passengers - especially compared to June 2016?

What gives? Who is flying charters from YVR to the U.S.?

http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/facts-sheets/2017/june/june-2017_traffic_update.pdf?la=en

[casper]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Didn't notice this the first time I looked but can anybody shed some light on this.

June 2017 Transborder stats indicate a significant amount of charter passengers - especially compared to June 2016?

What gives? Who is flying charters from YVR to the U.S.?

http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/facts-sheets/2017/june/june-2017_traffic_update.pdf?la=en

Air North has a charter service to Reno. Not certain how common it is or if it happens in June.

At the Victoria Airport I have seen Miami Air running charter flights into the US for cruise ship. Passengers. It is very rare but does happen. Does the same happen out of Vancouver?

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by casper

Air North has a charter service to Reno. Not certain how common it is or if it happens in June.

At the Victoria Airport I have seen Miami Air running charter flights into the US for cruise ship. Passengers. It is very rare but does happen. Does the same happen out of Vancouver?

Wasn't aware of Air North and I think Miami Air frequents YVR. But the charter figure is about 9% of the total which would mean a lot of charters!

[Gordon]

That's interesting because Victoria is not an Embarkation port it is just a port of call or U.S. based ships sailing to Alaska.

[LeftCoaster]

Like I thought not a ton has changed, my estimates were pretty close for the major markets.



Given this data it seems to me that daily service (at least during peak periods) to Washington DC, Orlando, Sacramento, Miami and Boston could work today if the right equipment is available.

Outside shots of Austin/San Antonio and some sort of combined Ohio service (not even close to one market I know) have decedent demand.

One thing I noticed was WJ started a YYC-Nashville service, yet YVR-Nashville is over 35% larger from an O&D standpoint. Benefits to having an airline head office in your town I suppose.

[Alpine]

This may or may not be of interest to YVR skywatchers...

Air Canada is sticking with a 787-9 on its 3x weekly Toronto-Dubai route for the peak season. Last year it was a 777-300ER in peak season. Reflecting decreased demand for Canada-MENASA traffic?

On another subject, where can I get YVR seat/pax data for routes? I'd like to visualize which of YVR's destinations are the busiest, which have the most seats/week, etc. Like YVR-SFO has xxx seats, YVR-YYC has xxx seats/x departures, etc.

[Canadian74]

Originally Posted by Alpine

This may or may not be of interest to YVR skywatchers...

Air Canada is sticking with a 787-9 on its 3x weekly Toronto-Dubai route for the peak season. Last year it was a 777-300ER in peak season. Reflecting decreased demand for Canada-MENASA traffic?

Could be a lack of equipment as well, with AC opening routes left and right

[casper]

Originally Posted by Gordon

That's interesting because Victoria is not an Embarkation port it is just a port of call or U.S. based ships sailing to Alaska.

I know it is was weird. I have only run into it twice. Victoria is like most outstations in Canada, security it is really busy during the morning peak and is dead the rest of the day. Twice now I have shown up and the lineups have been full of people boarding a charter flight to the US associated with a cruise. No pattern that I can detect. It may be from one of the smaller ships. The large mass-market ones do not use Victoria as a home port. That said the port authority wants to built out the infrastructure for Victoria to become a home port.

[casper]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Like I thought not a ton has changed, my estimates were pretty close for the major markets.



Given this data it seems to me that daily service (at least during peak periods) to Washington DC, Orlando, Sacramento, Miami and Boston could work today if the right equipment is available.

Outside shots of Austin/San Antonio and some sort of combined Ohio service (not even close to one market I know) have decedent demand.

One thing I noticed was WJ started a YYC-Nashville service, yet YVR-Nashville is over 35% larger from an O&D standpoint. Benefits to having an airline head office in your town I suppose.

When the US authorities were opening up some extra slots at Regan airport in Washington DC, Air Canada applied for slots to operate a non-stop to Vancouver. It was not awarded the slots.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Given this data it seems to me that daily service (at least during peak periods) to Washington DC, Orlando, Sacramento, Miami and Boston could work today if the right equipment is available.

Outside shots of Austin/San Antonio and some sort of combined Ohio service (not even close to one market I know) have decedent demand.

One thing I noticed was WJ started a YYC-Nashville service, yet YVR-Nashville is over 35% larger from an O&D standpoint. Benefits to having an airline head office in your town I suppose.

BOS is being operated daily summer seasonal.
I don't think Dash 8 -100s would be flying down to SMF.
AUS/SAT and any of the Ohio services wouldn't be viable.
MIA/FLL > BOS but you are showing fewer flights per week to MIA/FLL? These routes would be flown with similar equipment.

YYC-BNA has nothing to do with Westjet's head office being there it's has to do with YYC being a much better located hub for that route.

AC's strategy is focussing on YYZ, YVR and YUL only at the moment. Westjet more on YYZ, YYC and to a lesser extent YVR. For the first time just a few weeks ago I've seen Westjet use the term "hub" to describe its operations in YYC, YYZ and YVR.

Perhaps next summer we may see daily IAD, MIA and SMF again. Outside of those.... unlikely too much more.

[YVR Bruce]

Using population, and depreciating by distance from YVR (e.g. by 2:1) perhaps the largest unserved centre would be GEG Spokane.

GEG is closer than Cranbrook and has 3.3m PX/yr - that's roughly the same as YYJ + YLW together, in line with the combined size of those cities. Greater Spokane has a population of 650k. SEA is the only closer hub

Statscan data Johnny linked us to shows only 6990 px in 2016 for YVR-GEG, however that omits any Asia/Aust/Europe load that might be drawn our way. And other connecting GEG - W Canada traffic.

Anyone going beyond SEA from GEG has a 40 min turbo connector anyway, so why not AC Express via YVR? The GEG-SEA route has AS @ 14 x Q400 while DL has 8 x 70 seat ERJ/CRA-types each per day. Only 3% of that fills a DH3

How about GEG-YVR in time for the noon rush, then return to GEG for an afternoon YYC link (Europe and E Canada connections) then back for overnight in GEG? Perhaps 30-50/ day transferring onto longhauls, plus some new local business...

Also - more CDN traffic is likely to occur with Toronto Hydro 1's recent purchase of Avista - one of Spokane's largest employers

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Perhaps next summer we may see daily IAD, MIA and SMF again. Outside of those.... unlikely too much more.

Well, since we got SNA and SJC by WS and AC, maybe we'll see ONT and OAK some day... or maybe even LGB...