BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th

[Waders]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

That is my biggest worry is that they are just going to give Surrey what ever they want regarding transit, despite obviously being the worst choice of technology in its current form.

If they are to step in and upgrade it to Skytrain (or at the very least have a 3 or 4 km long tunneled section through Whalley, with both the King George and the Surrey City Centre stations being underground) then I will have a little more confidence in them to actually lead.

If they just pander to the cities, no questions asked, I will be quite angry.

I also really do not want a full stop on the GMB. Reduce it to 8 lanes, tweet the designs of the bus stops, and extend the rapid bus component all the way to White Rock. That would be the reasonable thing to do.

My prediction is NDP will have a hard time trying to lead. They have to watch every step in order to maintain the coalition with Greens.
Unless the 3 parties can compromise and collaborate, a lot of bills will fail.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Now will Christy resign? Or will the Liberals oust her?

Jeez, even Harper knew when to let himself out...

[Metro-One]

I personally want the Liberals to come back, but they do need to reform a little and Christy does need to retire.

I really hope in the meantime that the three parties can play somewhat nice and we can get at least a couple major projects and initiatives off the ground.

[WarrenC12]

Clark actually asked for dissolution and an election, which is what she said she wouldn't do. Just get out of the way already.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Pretty sure the Libs would've gotten a majority - or at least an undisputed minority - if anybody except her was Premier.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Today:



April 29, 2017:





Edit: Oh, some more gems:



The only one they got right for the winner was Fraser-Nicola, but it went 42% Lib, 38% NDP, 16% Green.

You'll excuse me while I take this latest Mainstreet poll with a grain of salt.

Obviously you did not diligently read my post with caveats thereto. And obviously you do not understand difference between opt-in online panel, IVR, and CATI polling methodology.

Riding polls and provincial polls are also completely different matters. Most, who comprehend polling methodologies as well as what entity is polled, understand same.

And I certainly previously gave my caveats on those Mainstreet Research "IVR" riding polls. Firstly, due to nature of riding polls, in urban settings, extremely difficult to produce - esp. these "freebies". One most know riding boundaries, able to discern how the first 3-digit dialing code overlaps the riding, can only utilize land-lines (for obvious reasons) and a 300-sample size is the minimum for prob & stats - still a large margin of error.

Nevertheless, as ya pointed out, even under those circumstances only large rural ridings would come close to the mark.

Those are just riding polls - not provincial polls. Mainstreet Research (IVR) had the BC NDP leading in all of its provincial polls during the 2017 election. That's what's key here. Mainstreet Research's final poll results? BC NDP: 40%, BC Lib: 39%.

Originally Posted by GeeCee

If we're going to be posting polls..

http://insightswest.com/news/throne-speech-does-little-to-sway-british-columbians/

Insights West - opt-in online methodology and Mario Canseco is known for posting leading questions. BC NDP statistically tied in interior BC - Kelowna, Kamloops, Cariboo, Prince George, Peace River district, etc? Damn, I have a used car that I would love to sell ya!

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

you'll excuse me while i take anything Stingray2004 says with a grain of salt. ftfy

Atta ol' boy Warren. Further reconfirmation that ya our own in-house "Lloyd Christmas".

[Stingray2004]

At the end of the day, looks like the BC LG took the advice of federal GG David Johnston in her decision. As I posted earlier, former GG Jean already set the precedent back in 2004 (?) whereby "it would be irresponsible to grant dissolution within 6 months of an election". That's it. Everything else was obviously irrelevant. "Let the democratic process take its course" so to speak.

All good. But, again, unlike other provinces, BC is the only jurisdiction in Canada that has a statute entitled BC Constitution Act, which governs Parliament and government. All enshrined in law - not convention.

As my previous post below points out, interim supply bills run out September 30 and a new BC budget must be passed prior to that date. S. 43 of the BC Constitution Act:

Decisions of Legislative Assembly by majority vote

43 All questions must be determined by a majority of votes of the members present, other than the Speaker.

IOW, on 3rd and final reading of any bill or budget (confidence motion), a majority MLAs must approve - Speaker can't vote. It's the law - not Speaker convention anymore as in 1st/2nd reading. Even the Clerk of the House ("CEO" of legislature) brought these matters to the House attention at opening of legislature last Thursday. So a 43 - 43 tie vote means no budget passed or bills passed. Horgan's only option then is to go to LG and ask for dissolution.

Today was, for practical reasons, just a delay on dissolution. No doubt about that.

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Much more fascinating were the statements to the House by long-time BC Legislative Clerk Craig James. BTW, the BC Legislative Clerk is known as the "CEO" of the BC Legislature and is non-partisan.

BC Legislative Clerk Craig James told the entire House today:

I highly suspect Craig is referring to media speculation on the Speaker's role and bending/breaking of convention if GreeNDP form gov't with a 43 GreeNDP v. 43 Lib vote on any bill with the new Speaker drawn from NDP ranks.

As Craig is the "CEO" of the House, he is also undoubtedly fully aware of the BC Constitution Act, which I referenced 2 days ago up-thread.

Unlike Speaker's in other Legislatures, BC's Constitution Act defines their role in statute law. Again, the key section therein:



IOW, on all final 3rd readings of bills, budgets, etc., unless a majority of members of the Legislature vote in favour of same, they are D-E-A-D on arrival. Basically a snapshot of the GreeNDP accord.

Next Thursday, when the incumbent BC Lib gov't likely falls on vote of confidence on the Throne Speech... we still don't know what the LG's advice by the 1st minister will be or what she will ultimately decide. The LG may well dissolve the legislature and we will be in a new election next week. Or maybe not.

If not, both Weaver/Horgan stated today that they will then bring back the Legislature after Labour Day weekend in September after the summer interlude.

The first key orders of business of the GreeNDP gov't involve confidence motions:

1. GreeNDP Throne Speech;

2. New Budget;

The budget must be passed prior to September 30 as interim supply bills then run out.

Suspect that the BC Libs will have a few House members away on the initial GreeNDP Throne Speech in order for it to "pass confidence".

The GreeNDP budget is where the BC Libs will obviously make numerous amendments, which will likely be rejected.

Likely final vote on GreeNDP budget as result?

43 - 43 tie vote. Again, under BC law, Speaker cannot cast deciding vote under these circumstances. Budget does not pass. Horgan then has no alternative but to visit the LG and advise her that GreeNDP budget has failed to gain the Confidence of the House and the LG's only alternative then is dissolution.

Bottom line? Either new election late next week or somewhere around September 15 - 25 time frame. I have no doubt about that anymore.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Waders

My prediction is NDP will have a hard time trying to lead. They have to watch every step in order to maintain the coalition with Greens.
Unless the 3 parties can compromise and collaborate, a lot of bills will fail.

You have to remember the Greens have a huge interest in making this work. They need to show non-majority government can work because if they can push proportional representation through,that's what we will have more often than not.

[Caliplanner1]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

As my previous post below points out, interim supply bills run out September 30 and a new BC budget must be passed prior to that date. S. 43 of the BC Constitution Act:, a majority MLAs must approve - Speaker can't vote. It's the law - not Speaker convention anymore as in 1st/2nd reading. Even the Clerk of the House ("CEO" of legislature) brought these matters to the House attention at opening of legislature last Thursday. So a 43 - 43 tie vote means no budget passed or bills passed. Horgan's only option then is to go to LG and ask for dissolution.
Today was, for practical reasons, just a delay on dissolution. No doubt about that.

The NDP/Greens should just re-present Liberal Clark's social welfare laced budget and watch the hypocrisy play out for the voters to see.....

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Aside, from the "stability" issue, I better clarify - the LG cannot call an election on her own volition.

The LG will only grant dissolution of the House (new election) upon the advice of the LG's 1st minister and then accepting that advice. Expecting CC now to pivot on this issue and indeed provide that advice, what is also important to note is that Ron Cheffins (constitutional expert in Westminster system) is likely now advising the LG and he is on record endorsing dissolution. Those 2 matters, hand-in-hand, tell me that we are likely off to the polls at the end of next week...

Oops. Maybe not.

NDP asked to form next B.C. government after Liberal defeat

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by Caliplanner1

The NDP/Greens should just re-present Liberal Clark's social welfare laced budget and watch the hypocrisy play out for the voters to see.....

People who vote BC Liberal have never paid any attention to BC Liberal hypocrisy, they won't start now.

[ryanmaccdn]

Originally Posted by Pinion

People who vote BC Liberal have never paid any attention to BC Liberal hypocrisy, they won't start now.

Anyone who didn't live in BC during the 90's/NDP's last hura needs to exit thru the provided emergency exit in these conversations...

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by ryanmaccdn

Anyone who didn't live in BC during the 90's/NDP's last hura needs to exit thru the provided emergency exit in these conversations...

B-b-b-b-but the Fast Ferries.

As always, external forces play a much bigger factor than what a provincial gov't can do. But even then the BC Libs claims of economic catastrophe were untrue:

A new B.C. Liberal election attack ad claims when the NDP were in power, British Columbia suffered a 'decade of decline' — and it warns a New Democrat government formed by John Horgan will "take us back" to those times.

The ad alleges that "when the rest of Canada was booming, the NDP took B.C. from first to worst in job creation, forcing 50,000 British Columbians to leave to find work," and that, "B.C. ranked dead last in investment and job growth."

The NDP reigned in B.C. from 1991 to 2000. The Liberals have been in power since 2001.

The Liberal ad cites Statistics Canada as the source of the information.

But are the claims completely true? Not according to two prominent B.C. economists, who analysed the assertions at the request of our CBC Fact Check team...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-co...e-of-decline-as-liberals-claim-1.4085394

[Caliplanner1]

Originally Posted by ryanmaccdn

Anyone who didn't live in BC during the 90's/NDP's last hura needs to exit thru the provided emergency exit in these conversations...

LOL...so tell us "old timer"....was housing (especially single family dwellings) during the NDP's tenure of the 1990's more unaffordable than it is now?

[s211]

I wish I had kept a copy of that stunning Vancouver magazine cover back in the early 90s that had superimposed Harcourt's head over a rather garishly dressed person (partially open shirt, gold chains, chest hair.... wasn't it the editor of the magazine? my memory is vague) brandishing a couple of credit cards. It was pure comedy gold.

[Caliplanner1]

Originally Posted by s211

I wish I had kept a copy of that stunning Vancouver magazine cover back in the early 90s that had superimposed Harcourt's head over a rather garishly dressed person (partially open shirt, gold chains, chest hair.... wasn't it the editor of the magazine? my memory is vague) brandishing a couple of credit cards. It was pure comedy gold.

...from your post one can assume that home prices/general costs of living were much higher than today's and young people's wages didn't go as far as it does now......???

[Stingray2004]

Interesting polling results/trends coming out with shifts thereto:

1. Over a week ago, Angus-Reid had a slight shift to the BC Libs with the BC Libs leading by 1% over the BC NDP (4% when taking into account how folk voted in 2017 election). [opt-in online panel methodology]

2. Yesterday, Mainstreet Research had a large shift with the BC Libs holding an 11% lead over the BC NDP. [IVR methodology]

3. Today, Ipsos-Reid's new poll results show a 6% BC Lib lead over the BC NDP [opt-in online panel methodology]:

BC Liberals Go Out on Top

BC Liberals (44%, up 4) Lead NDP (38%, down 4) by 6 Points Among Decided Voters (Greens 14%, down 1)

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/bc-liberals-go-out-on-top

Irrespective of polling methodology, it appears by the trends that "buyer's remorse" is setting into the BC electorate.

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by ryanmaccdn

Anyone who didn't live in BC during the 90's/NDP's last hura needs to exit thru the provided emergency exit in these conversations...

I've lived in Vancouver since the mid 80s, unlike most people here. Things are much worse now than the 90s.

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Irrespective of polling methodology, it appears by the trends that "buyer's remorse" is setting into the BC electorate.

lol they literally took over yesterday and you're already pulling this out.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by Pinion

I've lived in Vancouver since the mid 80s, unlike most people here. Things are much worse now than the 90s.

Wow, so untrue.

On a personal note, mining tanked in BC and I was stuck with a great degree with nowhere to go. However, I was thankful I was not homeless like all the patients that left Riverview around the same time.

At least Luv-a-fair was around back then