Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilliesPhan
I have been thinking about this question a lot lately, and I was wondering if anyone else feels the same. Does anyone believe that Nicetown-Tioga could be Philly's next hot neighborhood? Maybe not during this cycle, but possibly the next? For a few reasons, I certainly do.
1.) Nicetown-Tioga is transit-rich. With Wayne Junction, the Hunting Park and Erie (which boasts local, express, and Ridge-Spur service) stops on the BSL, and the 24/7 Route 23 (among other Night Owl routes), the neighborhood is well-connected to the city and surrounding suburbs. An express ride on the BSL is similar to a ride from East Kensington to Center City, time-wise.
2.) A brief spurt of revitalization already occurred in the mid-2000s. Before the Great Recession of 2008, some projects were undertaken near Wayne Junction. Now that the Beury Building on Broad and Erie will be rehabbed, another corner of the neighborhood will be revitalized.
3.) The real estate in that submarket seems underpriced. This even rings true for properties close to transit.
4.) Many of the homes in that neighborhood are beautiful, sturdily-built brick rowhomes. The numbered streets follow the pattern of having three-story rowhomes as typically seen in North Philly.
5.) It is accessible to all colleges and universities in the city, and almost all in the PA suburbs.
I would love to hear some opinions on this! I will be graduating from college next May, and I am taking the necessary steps to get into real estate development. With a lot of transactions occurring in the neighborhoods that investors are confident will be "next" (Norris Square, Belmont, deeper areas of Kensington, etc.), I am looking for neighborhoods that have markets that lack the high barriers of entry that more established markets have.
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It would be interesting, but we haven't yet seen any
ex nihilo redevelopment occur in this town. That is to say, I suspect that Nicetown will start redeveloping -- rapidly -- once Germantown redevelops.
The other problem is the BSL, which isn't as strong a redevelopment vector as the el. Some projects are -- finally -- occurring around the Fairmount station, but they're lagging behind redevelopment of the nearby neighborhoods. Nor have any major new-construction projects been executed to completion around the Spring Garden BSL stop, a fairly noticeable failure of redevelopment. I would not be surprised if this is in part because sites near BSL stops tend to be larger and therefore more expensive to develop, and often cleared to boot.
While your point that redevelopment will struggle to penetrate into Fairhill and the open-air drug markets, it has
already crossed the Lehigh viaduct in Port Richmond, which quite a few rehabs, especially closer to Richmond Ave, as well as some new construction here and there. I'd augur Port Richmond is probably the city's next hot market, while development into Fairhill will lag until Old Kensington and environs fill up.
Redevelopment in West Philly moves at its own sedate pace. It
still hasn't affected 52nd Street, which would've surprised 2007 me when I first started paying attention to these things. I keep hearing about renovations and people moving deeper into it, but I'm starting to suspect the dynamics in West Philly are different, and it'll pretty much all turn over in a single massive gentrificationquake once redevelopment pressures in the area reach some critical mass ... who knows when that'll be. Meanwhile, much of West Philly outside of the region between Market and Baltimore continues to decline. Which is a shame -- the 63rd Street corridor in Overbrook is a real city jewel.
Seven years ago the heroin markets reached as far south as the Berks el stop. I would suspect that during the next major development cycle they get chased to the region between the Northeast Corridor, Lehigh viaduct approach, and el since the march of redevelopment seems to be strongest along the river wards.
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