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  #981  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 3:42 AM
jollyburger jollyburger is online now
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Originally Posted by Stingray2004 View Post
Haha. I am self-employed. Always have been.

In any event, will re-iterate again - matter is in hands of LG at end of day. And based upon constitutional experts, the "tests" involved for new gov't replacement are "stability" for "reasonable period of time" - likely 1 year in minimum.

Entire matter in LG's hands with her constitutional advisors. Can't stress that enough. Hell, it's not rocket science. But that's only after the legislature first meets and incumbent gov't defeated.

Tomorrow will be another day. We get to see details of NDP/Green accord. The first step.
Which NDP MLA is going to jump ship to the Liberals for a cabinet position is what I want to know.

Or Christy Clark as the new speaker?
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  #982  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 3:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Stingray2004 View Post
Haha. I am self-employed. Always have been.

In any event, will re-iterate again - matter is in hands of LG at end of day. And based upon constitutional experts, the "tests" involved for new gov't replacement are "stability" for "reasonable period of time" - likely 1 year in minimum.

Entire matter in LG's hands with her constitutional advisors. Can't stress that enough. Hell, it's not rocket science. But that's only after the legislature first meets and incumbent gov't defeated.

Tomorrow will be another day. We get to see details of NDP/Green accord. The first step.
Lets make it clear.

You believe that the NDP / Greens will not be governing this province by fall?

Be honest and keep your wishful fantasies out of your answer. Also care to put your money where your mouth is? We can each pick a charity, all you have to do is present a anonymous receipt here.
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  #983  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 3:47 AM
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Stingray is a genius, you guys are just delusional.
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  #984  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 3:49 AM
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How so?
How does Alberta stand to lose ?

Well they could tie up the KM project in so much red tape it could strangle itself. That may not happen, but it could

I don't think the BC economy will suffer in any significant way, it'll just keep doing what it always does
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  #985  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 4:07 AM
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Originally Posted by cornholio View Post
Lets make it clear.

You believe that the NDP / Greens will not be governing this province by fall?

Be honest and keep your wishful fantasies out of your answer. Also care to put your money where your mouth is? We can each pick a charity, all you have to do is present a anonymous receipt here.
Haha. DEAL!! Hell, I lost $3,000 at the UBC Election Stock Market (Sauder School) just by a hair (another matter) - my 2013 gains thereto still outweighed same. PS. Actually lost only $2,400 as I bet in all 3 markets.

Now. $100 to my fave charity posted on here with my name on receipt blanked out. You... $100 to your fave charity along same lines.

Agreed?!
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  #986  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 4:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Stingray2004 View Post
I suspect that CC will announce a new cabinet soon, which starts the clock ticking on next date of legislature... perhaps as early as next month in June.

Problem with your analysis though. If NDP/Greens bring down gov't in Throne Speech vote and LG does not accept NDP/Green as "stable" alternative gov't over "reasonable period of time"... which results in a new election... voters typically punish political parties taking down gov't causing such new election. Poli 101.

Fascinating game of political chicken being played out.
The further this plays out, the more CC will suffer. Resign now and maintain some dignity for the future Liberals, or cling to power and get crushed in the next election.

The easy way forward for Libs in my eyes is let the NDP/Greens have their day in the sun. It's a fragile alliance, and bound to screw up in some form in the next 12-18 months. If an election gets called, Liberals stand to gain at that stage.

The LG (Liberal appointee) forcing another election will ensure an NDP majority.
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  #987  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 4:11 AM
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Nah... It's called detailed analysis. My career depends upon same.
Good thing it doesn't depend on you picking election winners and LNG investment timeframes...
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  #988  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 4:11 AM
cornholio cornholio is offline
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Originally Posted by Stingray2004 View Post
Haha. DEAL!! Hell, I lost $3,000 at the UBC Election Stock Market (Sauder School) just by a hair (another matter) - my 2013 gains thereto still outweighed same. PS. Actually lost only $2,400 as I bet in all 3 markets.

Now. $100 to my fave charity posted on here with my name on receipt blanked out. You... $100 to your fave charity along same lines.

Agreed?!
No. I pick the charity for you. You can pick for me for what its worth. I promise to pick a good one that you will enjoy donating to. (legit of course). $100 sounds fair, most of it gets written off anyways..http://communist-party.ca/donate this one sounds good, they take pay pal.
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  #989  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 4:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Jebby View Post
So you mean actual liberals, you know the people that support limited government, free markets and individual rights before big government progressives stole the moniker.
lol, sounds more like you are describing an American Libertarian and not a Canadian Liberal which are quite different ideologies.

It's the Conservatives that want small government in Canada silly boy. I will not even bother elaborating.

fyi you are trolling a Canadian politics thread.
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  #990  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 4:22 AM
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Originally Posted by cornholio View Post
No. I pick the charity for you. You can pick for me for what its worth. I promise to pick a good one that you will enjoy donating to. (legit of course). $100 sounds fair, most of it gets written off anyways..http://communist-party.ca/donate this one sounds good, they take pay pal.




What's the over/under here? Sept 21? Dec 21?

Who thinks the NDP/Greens will last longer than Trump?
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  #991  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 4:24 AM
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Originally Posted by cornholio View Post
No. I pick the charity for you. You can pick for me for what its worth. I promise to pick a good one that you will enjoy donating to. (legit of course). $100 sounds fair, most of it gets written off anyways..http://communist-party.ca/donate this one sounds good, they take pay pal.
Sorry man. But it's now obvious that ya are just a flake.
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  #992  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 4:41 AM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
The further this plays out, the more CC will suffer. Resign now and maintain some dignity for the future Liberals, or cling to power and get crushed in the next election.

The easy way forward for Libs in my eyes is let the NDP/Greens have their day in the sun. It's a fragile alliance, and bound to screw up in some form in the next 12-18 months. If an election gets called, Liberals stand to gain at that stage.

The LG (Liberal appointee) forcing another election will ensure an NDP majority.
Firstly, the LG is a federal appointee. Period.

The LG doesn't force another election. Her constitutional advisors provide her with advice on how to proceed.

Based upon the constitutional "tests" involving the current Green/NDP accord, again, I highly doubt that the LG will agree to same, based upon constitutional expert opinions to date. BTW, the LG will provide reasons for her actions in this regard.

And that's only after the Libs are defeated on a Throne Speech (confidence motion) by the NDP/Greens. IF the LG doesn't consent to their proposed accord and calls a new election... it's likely that both the NDP and Greens will be crushed as a result.

Has always been historically the case that the electorate punishes political parties that cause fresh elections recently after one was held.

Again, this entire matter is politically dangerous for ALL political parties involved.
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  #993  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 4:52 AM
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As a recent immigrant to BC, I still am "green" to the machinations of provincial politics here (though I did vote). That said, I was out for beers tonight with an old friend who used to be heavily involved in the execs of the Liberal party (he’s no longer involved and hasn’t been for over 5 years) who suggested a good conspiracy theory:

CC crafts her throne speech to lower the limit for official party status to 3, to kick off an all party committee to look into electoral reform and introduces changes to political donations mirroring the federal policy along with per vote subsidies ... in addition to a number of traditional liberal plans for economic growth and infrastructure (things that they campaigned on). Basically putting the Green’s big 3 into their Throne speech.

If the NDP/Greens reject the Throne speech, the LG may or may not accept Horgan depending on whether the agreement is an official coalition or just a convenient agreement to not force a confidence vote. The LG rejects the NDP offer and calls an election. CC and company present the Green/NDP coalition as being opportunistic and only in it for themselves.

Again, I’m not pushing this as an option, just an interesting conspiracy discussion over beers.
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  #994  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 5:04 AM
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Again, the LG must consider the "stability" test in context with her constitutional advisors.

Here's the take on "stability" from a couple of political scientists tonight (extracted):

Quote:
Prof. Hamish Telford, who teaches political science at the University of the Fraser Valley, explained that the NDP-Green collaboration was far from a done deal.

"Just because they have an agreement today to govern doesn't mean they will actually form a government," he said.

"I don't think ... the NDP-Green majority is sufficiently great to cause her to concede," Telford said.

After all, he said it would only take one New Democrat to miss the ferry to Vancouver Island for the vote in the legislature in Victoria and "the Liberals could survive a confidence vote on the throne speech."

A minority NDP government propped up by the Greens would have "the narrowest of majorities," said Kathryn Harrison, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia.

"There is no room for error. There is no room for backbenchers to bolt. There's no room for sickness," she said, adding that governments can lose a single vote any number of ways.

"People misbehave. They get thrown out of caucus. They get sick or resign. Rebellious backbenchers threaten to vote against legislation and break party discipline," Harrison said. "It would be a challenge to govern for very long."
http://www.cheknews.ca/the-ball-is-in-b-...s-court-political-scientists-say-323541/
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  #995  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 5:24 AM
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We are in unchartered political times here in BC... or for that matter Canada.

More constitutional evidence rolling in tonight... if no one upfront throws their hat into the ring to take the job of Speaker of the House before the legislature sits ... the LG's only option is to dissolve the House and call a new election.

Constitutional precedent - PEI, 1858; Nfld, 1908.

Again, we are in completely unchartered waters here. To again paraphrase Keith Baldrey today- 'gonna be a wild ride'.
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  #996  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 8:04 AM
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even if the NDP and Greens manage to form a government against all odds, they won't really be able to accomplish anything as NDP-greens vs Liberals will effectively be tied in the legislature on all votes.

So even if we all got lucky and this remained the case for 4 years, it doesn't really matter because the government will be ineffective an unable to enact any real changes.
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  #997  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 8:39 AM
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I have considered the arguments of Stingray, and I have done more research. Stringray's argument is centered around the role of the speaker and whether his impartiality means that he cannot have a political affiliation and thereby be considered as a secured vote for a formal agreement. Of all I have come across, this article written for the Canadian Parliamentary Review Winter 1996/97 by Dale Lovick former Speaker of the British Columbia Legislative Assembly, seems to tackle the issue best from my perspective.

You can read the full text here and see the original here. I would highly encourage you read the full text, but if you do not have time the following is a quick snippet:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale Lovik
The arguments for a non-partisan Speaker do not appear to stand up to scrutiny. First, the idea that membership in or connection with a political party renders one incapable of impartiality is a non sequitur. Second, the tradition of more or less automatic re-election of the Speaker in return for absolute non-partisanship which has been established at Westminster does not obtain in British Columbia, or Canada, or in most other Commonwealth parliaments. Third, the duties of the Speaker at Westminster are significantly different from those performed by her/his counterpart in the British Columbia Legislature, and I suspect in other Commonwealth parliaments as well.

There are other reasons, too, why I do not think we need to transplant the Westminster convention of non-partisanship.

The impartiality of the Speaker is in fact already satisfactorily protected by the normal procedures, practices and traditions of a modern parliament. I suspect that every Speaker becomes aware very early of what the office of Speaker requires and deserves. I cannot, frankly, imagine any Speaker with any modicum of understanding and appreciation of parliament who would not be mindful of his or her responsibilities to parliament, to parliamentarians, and to self. The Speaker who demonstrably favoured one side or faction over the other would have a career reminiscent of Hobbes’ state of nature – nasty, brutish, and short.
From Dale's argument and other Canadian Speakers, I am inclined to believe that the Greens and NDP have a more favourable chance than Stringray predicts. Secondly, I am doubtful that they would form such an agreement if they did not feel they could draft an agreement with enough constitutional backbone that the Lieutenant Governor would not permit them the chance to hold the confidence of the House.

On the issue of MLA's having to showing up to vote, I think that is a good thing. Taking on the role of a MLA is a big responsibility and I have every expectation of my MLA to not miss a single vote, sick or not. 25,000 people voted for that MLA to have that seat and missing a vote is a disservice to those 25,000 people and unacceptable in my eyes.
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  #998  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 4:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Stingray2004 View Post
We are in unchartered political times here in BC... or for that matter Canada.

More constitutional evidence rolling in tonight... if no one upfront throws their hat into the ring to take the job of Speaker of the House before the legislature sits ... the LG's only option is to dissolve the House and call a new election.

Constitutional precedent - PEI, 1858; Nfld, 1908.
How often do "constitutional precedents" come from either before there was a Canada, let alone a Canadian constitution, or come from before a territory wasn't even a province of Canada?
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  #999  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 5:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Stingray2004 View Post
I suspect that CC will announce a new cabinet soon, which starts the clock ticking on next date of legislature... perhaps as early as next month in June.

Problem with your analysis though. If NDP/Greens bring down gov't in Throne Speech vote and LG does not accept NDP/Green as "stable" alternative gov't over "reasonable period of time"... which results in a new election... voters typically punish political parties taking down gov't causing such new election. Poli 101.

Fascinating game of political chicken being played out.
I can think of a couple BC Libs that could easily cross the floor to the Greens.
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  #1000  
Old Posted May 30, 2017, 5:07 PM
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Originally Posted by shreddog View Post
As a recent immigrant to BC, I still am "green" to the machinations of provincial politics here (though I did vote). That said, I was out for beers tonight with an old friend who used to be heavily involved in the execs of the Liberal party (he’s no longer involved and hasn’t been for over 5 years) who suggested a good conspiracy theory:

CC crafts her throne speech to lower the limit for official party status to 3, to kick off an all party committee to look into electoral reform and introduces changes to political donations mirroring the federal policy along with per vote subsidies ... in addition to a number of traditional liberal plans for economic growth and infrastructure (things that they campaigned on). Basically putting the Green’s big 3 into their Throne speech.

If the NDP/Greens reject the Throne speech, the LG may or may not accept Horgan depending on whether the agreement is an official coalition or just a convenient agreement to not force a confidence vote. The LG rejects the NDP offer and calls an election. CC and company present the Green/NDP coalition as being opportunistic and only in it for themselves.

Again, I’m not pushing this as an option, just an interesting conspiracy discussion over beers.
I really don't think that British Columbians would fall for that. The narrative post-election has been "who will the Greens, as kingmaker, side with". They have now picked a side. If the Liberals attempt to hold on to power despite that choice, whatever tactic they use, I think that most people would see it as playing politics and blame the new election on them.
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