High Speed Rail in Canada

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by itom 987

Probably not 300 km/h but definitely 160km/h on highways. Time is the most valuable commodity we all have. We waste so much if when sleeping that it's a no-brainer to travel while sleeping. Lets say you take the HSR from Toronto to Montreal, the ride took only an hour but then you have to take transit or a rent-a-car to get to your final destination. Keep in mind that you also have to travel to the HSR rail station as well before taking the ride. Your total trip time ends up being longer when everything else is factored in. Alternately, you can hop into your driverless vehicle that is parked in your driveway. Relax, sleep, eat, chat etc. and end up at your final destination at a suburban outpost somewhere near Montreal. The trip time would be about the same as HSR. Yes, I have mentioned before that continental air travel is in trouble. Perhaps it will be used for freight.

160? No way. The only way that happens is if the government can guarantee that every vehicle on the road is fully automated. Every car, every tractor trailer, every service vehicle.

Moreover, your scenario is flawed if you think that transit or rental on arrival is slower.

Scenario: Toronto-Union to Ottawa (downtown to downtown).

Air
1) Travel to Pearson airport (say 25 mins) or Island airport (15 mins).
2) Pre-boarding (45 mins)
3) Fly to Ottawa (1 hr)
4) Travel to downtown (20-30 min taxi ride).

Total time 2.5 - 3 hrs

Rail with VIA's HFR (currently being vetted by the government) or full High Speed Rail (the 300 kph kind):
1) Start at Union (0 mins).
2) Pre-boarding (15 mins)
3) Train ride (HFR: 2.5 hrs, HSR: 1.7 hrs)
4) LRT to downtown Ottawa (8-10 mins)...about the same time by taxi.

Total time: 2 hrs (HSR) to 3 hrs (HFR).

Same travel time. And the LRT in Ottawa will be substantially quicker to the core. And a lot less stress too. Only 4 stops from downtown. Moreover, the time on the train is actually productive. You can get work done. The seats are more comfortable. VIA's HFR proposal will decimate air traffic on Toronto-Ottawa and kill every bus service. The addition of more seats will actually let them compete on price with buses. The speed (even without it being high speed) will let them compete with air on time.

The VIA HFR proposal is less competitive on Toronto-Montreal (proposing 3.5 hr travel time) since they are going through Ottawa to Montreal. But they will still kill bus service, divert a good bit of traffic and put a dent in less time sensitive air travel, especially from the Toronto's downtown core and the Eastern GTA.

Lastly, whatever makes driverless cars attractive, will make High Speed Rail even more attractive. Let's say that automation leads to driverless cars providing transportation on demand. If this happens, why would anybody bother owning a car? They'd join a service that ran a pool of cars that provided service in a reasonable amount of time. Moreover, they wouldn't bother driving inter-city. They'd be better off taking the train and summoning a car on arrival. Even with driverless cars, you're spending at least 4 hrs driving from Toronto to Ottawa or 5 hrs from Toronto to Montreal. And that's without significant weather. And you're doing it in a cramped vehicle where you can't move around significantly or comfortably doing work (chances are the law will require monitoring of the vehicle for a long time). Better to take the train and just summon a car locally.

[itom 987]

If travel times via HSR and air between Ottawa and Toronto are both the same, why even bother adding HSR in the first place? Half of the population will take HSR and the other half will take air. That kind of market splitting will make both services unviable. Taking the LRT to downtown from the airport or HSR terminal may be convenient but the overwhelming majority of travellers are not heading downtown. A large percentage will want to meet with their friends or relatives that probably live in the suburbs or town outside of the city. Another large percentage will want to go to a place of employment that is outside of the city's core. Travelling by bus or cab to those specific locations will not be convenient for them.

When it comes to travel times, HSR and air transport will have their own schedule that you will have to work around with no matter if it is hourly or daily, or weekly. Those schedules will not operate at all times on a 24 hour clock either. People love their cars because they can hop in and go when ever they want. That will never change.

If this happens, why would anybody bother owning a car? They'd join a service that ran a pool of cars that provided service in a reasonable amount of time.

Seriously??? Let's say a car picks up a bunch of hooligans coming home from a party. One of them puked all over a seat, another scrawled graffiti all over the dash board. The car drops them off and comes to serve your request. You go into the car shocked to see it reeking of puke and are stuck with it for 5 hours because you don't have enough time to call another one. Good luck.... The fact is, people will want their own car, some will want the bare necessities while other will want all the bells and whistles. That will never change, and they know it will be their problem if they puke in it.

A lot of you guys are forgetting that with an automated car they can hop in at 11:24pm, sleep and wake up at 7:48am in an entirely different location. Yes, you can do that with planes and HSR, but you are forced to dance to the beat of their drum.

[milomilo]

^^^ You seem to be wrong about literally everything. Along with all the other stuff, no one is going to want to spend their night's sleep in a car before going to work. Aside from the terrible sleeping/laundry arrangement, where are they going to get changed/shower/go to the washroom? Nonsense.

Driverless cars will likely make our roads safer, but that's about it. If anything, road capacities will probably go down as the cars will be required to maintain the safe stopping distance that all drivers are currently supposed to maintain, but don't.

[milomilo]

Luckily we already have proven automated vehicle technology in service - they're extremely fast, safe, environmentally friendly and can carry large amounts of passengers. They're called 'trains'.

[itom 987]

Originally Posted by milomilo

no one is going to want to spend their night's sleep in a car before going to work. Aside from the terrible sleeping/laundry arrangement, where are they going to get changed/shower/go to the washroom?

Motorhomes have washrooms and showers, there are 'greyhound' sleeper busses that transport people at night. I have used a sleeper bus in China and found them quite comfortable. The passenger sitting beside the driver in a car sleeps a bit on long trips, why not make them feel more comfortable if the car is automated?

Very few people live in one city and take HSR to work in another city every day - at least in Canada. That could change but don't expect them to take a trip that is longer than an hour or so each way.

[itom 987]

Here is an image inside of a Chinese sleeper bus.

[itom 987]

One of the nicest things about traveling while sleeping is that you don't pay money to sleep in a hotel!

[waterloowarrior]

Night trains in Europe are on the decline... SNCF and DB have cancelled most or all of their services
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/30/requiem-overnight-sleeper-european-train
https://www.thelocal.fr/20160721/half-of-frances-night-trains-to-see-the-end-of-the-line

I think overnight service between Montreal and Toronto was cancelled about 10 years ago.

[itom 987]

I guess Toronto and Montreal aren't far enough apart to make the sleeper services work. Once a train stops, everyone has to leave. In an automated vehicle it will park at your destination and you can continue sleeping till you wake up. The joys of ownership!

[casper]

Originally Posted by itom 987

.....

Seriously??? Let's say a car picks up a bunch of hooligans coming home from a party. One of them puked all over a seat, another scrawled graffiti all over the dash board. The car drops them off and comes to serve your request. You go into the car shocked to see it reeking of puke and are stuck with it for 5 hours because you don't have enough time to call another one. Good luck.... The fact is, people will want their own car, some will want the bare necessities while other will want all the bells and whistles. That will never change, and they know it will be their problem if they puke in it.

A lot of you guys are forgetting that with an automated car they can hop in at 11:24pm, sleep and wake up at 7:48am in an entirely different location. Yes, you can do that with planes and HSR, but you are forced to dance to the beat of their drum.

You have to understand how car-sharing working. This is the one I subscribe to https://www.car2go.com/CA/en/vancouver/ . You end up being responsible for the car, through you app you confirm the car is in good condition when you pick it up and you are simply renting the car by the minute. Yes by the minute. There is a discount if you have the car for an hour, and a better discount if you have it for the day.

The app tells you where the nearest available cars are and you go and fetch one. At some point in the future these become automated cars.

When that happens uber, car2go and the other car sharing services basically end up competing against each other, just starting from different points of strength. Same thing as the cable company and phone companies are basically providing the same competitive service just comes from a different perspective and slightly different technology.

All of this is going to reduce the value proposition of owning a vehicle and therefore make public transport more and more compelling. High speed regional rail will have a stronger business cases as a result.

[SF Thomas]

Originally Posted by itom 987

If travel times via HSR and air between Ottawa and Toronto are both the same, why even bother adding HSR in the first place? Half of the population will take HSR and the other half will take air.

Several reasons I can think of off the top of my head:

1. HSR will have stops in other medium sized cities as well (Kingston, Belleville, Cobourg etc.), so it will improve travel in other cities as well.

2. Less boarding time. Planes tend to take longer to board, get luggage on and off, deal with security checks etc.

3. The cost of HSR is less prone to price fluctuations like the cost of jet fuel. There is a good chance it will also be less expensive than airfare in the long run.

4. HSR can carry more people at once more efficiently than airplanes, and encourages more intercity travel. This is beneficial from the amount of people it can help and also from an economic perspective (i.e. more tourism etc.)

5. Space and comfort. There is generally more room on trains than airplanes and it feels less cramped.

6. Not everyone feels comfortable flying or is able bodied enough to fly. Rail is easier to make accessible for people with disabilities, doesn't cause altitude sickness etc.

[casper]

Originally Posted by itom 987

I guess Toronto and Montreal aren't far enough apart to make the sleeper services work. Once a train stops, everyone has to leave. In an automated vehicle it will park at your destination and you can continue sleeping till you wake up. The joys of ownership!

That sleeping bus service has little to do with sleeping. I could not sleep in that environment.

VIA rail has some fairly nice sleeper compartments for the Canadian service. For example, leave Saskatoon at 10:00 pm arrive in Edmonton at 8:00 in the morning. That is a more appropriate distance for a sleeper service.

[itom 987]

^^^ Looks like an interesting concept, very similar to cab service without the cab driver. I won't be surprised if they pioneer into driverless cars, it makes sense.

I don't want this thread to veer too far off topic, I've just stated why I think HSR won't happen and don't have much further to add to that. If you think HSR is thee way to go then more power to you. Only time will tell how things end up.

[TownGuy]

Originally Posted by itom 987

Here is an image inside of a Chinese sleeper bus.

Geez that looks awkward and uncomfortable. I don't think I would manage more than a couple hours of sleep.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by milomilo

^^^ You seem to be wrong about literally everything. Along with all the other stuff, no one is going to want to spend their night's sleep in a car before going to work. Aside from the terrible sleeping/laundry arrangement, where are they going to get changed/shower/go to the washroom? Nonsense.

Driverless cars will likely make our roads safer, but that's about it. If anything, road capacities will probably go down as the cars will be required to maintain the safe stopping distance that all drivers are currently supposed to maintain, but don't.

Speed is another issue...automated cars would likely obey the speed limit within 5 km/h. Unless speed limits change, it'll end up taking longer to take the 401 than it does now (unless you already drive at 100 km/h, which no one does outside Toronto)

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by manny_santos

Speed is another issue...automated cars would likely obey the speed limit within 5 km/h. Unless speed limits change, it'll end up taking longer to take the 401 than it does now (unless you already drive at 100 km/h, which no one does outside Toronto)

Yeah, that too. People have this idealistic idea that driverless cars will be able to ignore all the rules and systems we have in place and be able to speed and not maintain proper stopping distances and separation, but there is clear precedent that this will not happen (for good reason). Just look at the automated railway systems that operate today, in far more controlled, safe environments. The trains on these systems still maintain a full stopping distance apart, plus a safety buffer. They also aren't permitted to enter sections of track that another train will be crossing.

I wish people would engage their brains before trotting out these fantasies, but the whole internet seems to have an incorrect vision of the future.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by itom 987

If travel times via HSR and air between Ottawa and Toronto are both the same, why even bother adding HSR in the first place?

1) Competition. Having an alternative keeps everyone honest. HSR has put pressure on air fares in Europe and Japan.

2) Convenience. Unless you live in the Western GTA, Pearson 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵. From the East, the train would be more convenient and faster.

3) Productivity. I can work comfortably on a plane with wifi. Heck, some trains in Europe have conference spaces onboard to allow for meetings while traveling.

4) Comfort. Air Canada and Westjet will both be flying the 737 soon. This is an aircraft that has 17" wide seats in economy and 31" seat pitch. This is actually worse than Greyhound on both dimensions. VIA Rail has wider seats and more seat pitch than Air Canada business class.

5) Carbon emissions. Energy flow chart from Lawrence Livermore national labs in the US:

https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/charts/Energy/ENERGY_2011_CANADA.png

I'm doing graduate work in energy studies through an engineering program on military exchange with the US. Energy flow charts like the one above tell you where you can invest to make improvements.

If you look at Canada's energy usage, the only real dent Canada can make in improving energy usage is in the transport and residential sectors. We will not meet emissions targets without broad implementation of mass transit (including high speed rail where possible) and urban densification.

Originally Posted by itom 987

Half of the population will take HSR and the other half will take air.

And this is a good thing. It means half the population will have reduced their energy consumption. With the added benefit of keeping the pressure up on the airlines for the other half who are flying.

Originally Posted by itom 987

That kind of market splitting will make both services unviable.

There are 80 flights a days between Toronto-Ottawa and Toronto-Montreal. And only Porter has them on aircraft with less than 100 seats. This is the most profitable market for all airlines in Canada, despite the competition. So I am not in the least worried about viability. All that happens is that airlines downsize to 100 seaters and slightly reduce frequencies. Look at any other market with high speed rail. Flying has not stopped. Just scaled down a tad. Moreover, see Pearson's plan for a rail hub. They want to reduce short haul flying to open up more international destinations which airlines also find more profitable.

Bus services on the other hand will probably get cut. And that's fine with me. The train will be more reliable, more frequent, and cheaper. The buses can do the milk runs serving smaller towns, like they do elsewhere.

Originally Posted by itom 987

Taking the LRT to downtown from the airport or HSR terminal may be convenient but the overwhelming majority of travellers are not heading downtown. A large percentage will want to meet with their friends or relatives that probably live in the suburbs or town outside of the city. Another large percentage will want to go to a place of employment that is outside of the city's core. Travelling by bus or cab to those specific locations will not be convenient for them.

Isn't it great that Ottawa and Montreal both have suburban stations as well that flank the city (Fallowfield and Dorval)? Similar to how Guildwood or Oshawa in Toronto cover the entire Eastern GTA with greater convenience than either Pearson or Billy Bishop. HSR or HFR will have the same.

Originally Posted by itom 987

When it comes to travel times, HSR and air transport will have their own schedule that you will have to work around with no matter if it is hourly or daily, or weekly.

Never knew you could hop on Air Canada or Westjet or the Greyhound any time you like.

Originally Posted by itom 987

Those schedules will not operate at all times on a 24 hour clock either. People love their cars because they can hop in and go when ever they want. That will never change.

Have you driven the 401 intercity at 2am? I have. Not much traffic. Actually, almost none, other than tractor trailers. Guess what? Most people still like traveling when they aren't tired and there's light out. The only time they don't is when it's an emergency. And for that, people will still be driving. Nobody here is saying 100% migration to rail. This is a strawmen you're putting up.

Now.....would you agree that Americans love their cars, as much, or more than Canadians? They certainly put on more miles than we do. Right? Yet, Amtrak's Acela Express has captured 75% modal share in Washington DC to New York market. That's right, 75% of ALL travel between those cities goes on rail. Only 25% split between driving and flying. Source:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bs-bz-amtrak-high-speed-test-20120924-story.html

Amtrak says that over the past five years, its share of the Washington-New York market has grown to 75 percent, up from 35 percent a little more than a decade ago. Its top producer — Acela — runs near capacity and annually produces $550 million in revenue while spending $360 million.

Turns out that when you give people a stress free option, they are prone to taking it. And given traffic in New York and the DC area, it's no surprise people prefer to take the train. Oh and both these cities have airports far more convenient and with more frequent service than Toronto and Ottawa/Montreal. And they are about 100km closer. Guess what happens to traffic when the GTA adds another million residents in the next 10 years?

Originally Posted by itom 987

Seriously??? Let's say a car picks up a bunch of hooligans coming home from a party. One of them puked all over a seat, another scrawled graffiti all over the dash board. The car drops them off and comes to serve your request. You go into the car shocked to see it reeking of puke and are stuck with it for 5 hours because you don't have enough time to call another one.

A red herring argument. But I'll bite. Let's say it's 2040, all cars are automated and you have a TAAS (transport as a service is what this concept is called) subscription, guess what? Just like Uber. You flag the vehicle and request the next one. Nothing says you have to get in. When it comes to shared vehicles, we'll quickly be developing rules and social norms around their usage. But like I said earlier, full automation and TAAS is at least 15-20 years away. And still doesn't negate the need for improve long-distance transport. It's a last mile solution.

Originally Posted by itom 987

Good luck.... The fact is, people will want their own car, some will want the bare necessities while other will want all the bells and whistles. That will never change, and they know it will be their problem if they puke in it.

Another strawman. Nobody has claimed that people will not want to own cars. We are only claiming that will drive them less (particularly on long distance trips) when there are alternatives. As proven by experience in other markets where full speed or high speed rail is available.

Heck, when I lived in Ottawa, I lived right off the transitway and worked off the transitway. There were entire months that I went without using my car simply because transit was more convenient (no traffic) and cheaper (parking is expensive).

Originally Posted by itom 987

A lot of you guys are forgetting that with an automated car they can hop in at 11:24pm, sleep and wake up at 7:48am in an entirely different location. Yes, you can do that with planes and HSR, but you are forced to dance to the beat of their drum.

You think we're insane and you're proposing that people sleep for 8 hrs in a car seat? Over a 3 hr train ride and their actual bed or hotel bed? You must not travel much if you think this way. And you definitely don't travel for business if you believe this. I've got off a plane in business class with a bed and gone into meetings and it's still a horrible zombie like experience. I much rather prefer them sending me economy a day earlier and giving me a night in a hotel (cheaper for them too).

I urge you to sleep in your car tonight. Tell us how comfortable that is tomorrow and tell me if you'd be able to function at a high level right off the bat.

And that's of course assuming people want to overnight. Most of us want to leave in the morning, do our business and get home to our own beds in the evening. A ton of business traffic in the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal corridors is same day traffic. Which is why their biggest aircraft are on the morning and evening runs.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by milomilo

Yeah, that too. People have this idealistic idea that driverless cars will be able to ignore all the rules and systems we have in place and be able to speed and not maintain proper stopping distances and separation, but there is clear precedent that this will not happen (for good reason). Just look at the automated railway systems that operate today, in far more controlled, safe environments. The trains on these systems still maintain a full stopping distance apart, plus a safety buffer. They also aren't permitted to enter sections of track that another train will be crossing.

I wish people would engage their brains before trotting out these fantasies, but the whole internet seems to have an incorrect vision of the future.

Exactly. The whole purpose of automation is to capture the safety and efficiency benefits. This cannot happen without strict adherence to the rules.

People imagine that cars will go faster when automated. And that's true....if and only if the government can guarantee that every vehicle on that road is automated. Given that people replace their cars every 10 years, and given that full automation with interconnection isn't here yet, we're looking at a solid 15-20 years before this happens. And that's me being optimistic.

And none of that addresses adverse weather (this is Canada after all), road congestion (bound to get worse in cities and suburbs), cost (hotel parking yikes!) or comfort for long haul.

[TorontoDrew]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

160? No way. The only way that happens is if the government can guarantee that every vehicle on the road is fully automated. Every car, every tractor trailer, every service vehicle.

Moreover, your scenario is flawed if you think that transit or rental on arrival is slower.

Scenario: Toronto-Union to Ottawa (downtown to downtown).

Air
1) Travel to Pearson airport (say 25 mins) or Island airport (15 mins).
2) Pre-boarding (45 mins)
3) Fly to Ottawa (1 hr)
4) Travel to downtown (20-30 min taxi ride).

Total time 2.5 - 3 hrs

I'd add another 1.5 hrs to that as really even for domestic you should arrive a good hour or more before your flight for security and baggage checking. Also if you check your bag you could wait up to 20 mins or more for it to get to the carousel.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

I'd add another 1.5 hrs to that as really even for domestic you should arrive a good hour or more before your flight for security and baggage checking. Also if you check your bag you could wait up to 20 mins or more for it to get to the carousel.

Yep, and even if flying was a little faster, it's still a thoroughly unpleasant experience at the best of times so I'd always choose the train if I had the choice. I just hope Canada doesn't go down the road of enforcing airport style security on railways - that would ruin it.