BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th

[Stingray2004]

Fed NDP vote was 26% in 2015 in BC. BC NDP vote was ~39% in 1972, 1975, 1996, 2013, and 2017. A 13% differential for the taking by a new actual small "l" liberal party. Political vacuum is certainly there.

I will re-iterate again what I posted herein yesterday - an initial key finding of the Metro Vancouver results:

Tonight, Van Sun's Vaughn Palmer, Global BC's Keith Baldrey and the Globe & Mail's Justine Hunter provided some further information in that regard for an hour on Shaw TV.

In terms of Metro Vancouver swing ridings, just in terms of Surrey, the BC Libs lost ~20,000 2013 BC Lib voters in Surrey in 2017... some voted BC NDP, more voted BC Green, while the majority just stayed home. More complex but provides insights into Metro Vancouver's swing ridings in 2017.

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

BC NDP brand is just too toxic to majority of BC electorate and always will be. It is what it is.

The NDP would've won a majority if it wasn't for vote splitting on the left so this is pretty weird to say.

The majority of British Columbians are "anyone but conservative" voters, federally and provincially. We vote for whoever can beat the BC Liberals/Conservatives in our riding. I would've voted Green if they had a shot in North Van-Lonsdale.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Fed NDP vote was 26% in 2015 in BC. BC NDP vote was ~39% in 1972, 1975, 1996, 2013, and 2017. A 13% differential for the taking by a new actual small "l" liberal party. Political vacuum is certainly there.

Weren't you the one insisting that Tom Mulcair was "far left" in the last election?

I'm surprised that these unreconstructed Marxists almost won False Creek and were re-elected by very wide margins in Point Grey and Fairview.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Pinion

The NDP would've won a majority if it wasn't for vote splitting on the left so this is pretty weird to say.

The majority of British Columbians are "anyone but conservative" voters, federally and provincially. We vote for whoever can beat the BC Liberals/Conservatives in our riding. I would've voted Green if they had a shot in North Van-Lonsdale.

Lonsdale is another riding that was a surprise to me.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Pinion

The NDP would've won a majority if it wasn't for vote splitting on the left so this is pretty weird to say.

Haha. Huh?!! I have already posted herein several BC riding results herein confirming a larger 2013 BC Lib voter ----> 2017 BC Green voter migration/swing than 2013 BC NDP voter migration thereto.

Now let's look at 2017 BC election popular vote share results compared with 2013 change:

BC Lib: 41% (-3%)
BC NDP: 40% (+-0%)
BC Green: 17% (+9%)
BC Con: ~0% (-5%)

So what you are telling me is that, while the 2013 BC NDP vote remained stagnant in 2017, that the 2017 BC Lib/BC Con ~-8% vote loss from 2013 was "left-vote splitting" with the BC Greens gaining an almost equivalent 9%? Haha, sorry man... but kindly provide some corroborating data in that regard. I am all ears!

Hell, CKNW conducted an analysis of 2013 v. 2017 results and these were their findings:

Did the Greens split the vote with the NDP? Or did they cost the Liberals a majority? We crunched the numbers

Surprisingly, the numbers show that in all but two races where the Greens grew their vote, Burnaby-Deer Lake and Burnaby North, the NDP also grew its vote.

In both cases where the NDP vote contracted, BC Liberal losses far exceeded those of the NDP.

On the other side, the trend among BC Liberal swing ridings appears clear, losses in virtually every riding where the Greens grew.

In just one of the cases, Fraser Nicola, did the BC Liberals expand their vote.

UBC Political Scientist Max Cameron says it appears to be a case of the Greens poaching disaffected Liberals.

“It seems like a reasonable story, and it makes a lot of sense. There is alot of animus against the NDP in the Liberal Party, it would be very hard for any of them to vote NDP, and perhaps the Greens provided them with a more palatable alternative, particularly since the Greens did go out of their way to support a couple of Liberal budgets.”

http://www.cknw.com/2017/05/10/greens/

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Docere

Weren't you the one insisting that Tom Mulcair was "far left" in the last election?

I'm surprised that these unreconstructed Marxists almost won False Creek and were re-elected by very wide margins in Point Grey and Fairview.

Haha. Huh? Hell, I never said such thing in the Canada 2015 election thread. I will ask you kindly... please don't attribute statements to me that are patently false. NDP partisans (well known for operating akin to a "church") are well known for same. Seriously. I have zero tolerance for false statements akin to your foregoing. Otherwise I will nuke your comment.

PS. I am a federal Liberal voter - the centrist option.

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Haha. Huh?!!

Let me emphasize the most important line from an article you quoted:

In terms of Metro Vancouver swing ridings, just in terms of Surrey, the BC Libs lost ~20,000 2013 BC Lib voters in Surrey in 2017... some voted BC NDP, more voted BC Green, while the majority just stayed home.

[Docere]

How do you explain the inroads the NDP has made on the West Side of Vancouver in the last two elections if they're the "same old NDP"?

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Pinion

Let me emphasize the most important line from an article you quoted:

Haha. Thanks for pointing that out again! Very key data. IOW, there was no major NDP surge in Metro Vancouver. It remains as centre-right as ever. Important to note, in terms of future BC election riding results. Again, critical data right there. I kid you not.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Docere

How do you explain the inroads the NDP has made on the West Side of Vancouver in the last two elections if they're the "same old NDP"?

Sorry Docere. You have made some good analytical comments in this thread. Now you are moving into rhetoric territory. As well as false comments attributed to me personally. Not kewl. NOT.

[WarrenC12]

Let's say you have results as follows:

2013:
Lib: 20,000 votes
NDP: 15,000 votes
Green: 5,000 votes
= total 40k

2017:
Lib: 14,000 votes
NDP: 15,000 votes
Green: 11,000 votes
= total 40k

Why do people assume the Greens have taken 6000 votes directly from the Liberals? It's a made up assumption, case closed.

People are pissed off with Clark and the Liberals. Of the 6k votes the Liberals lost, some went NDP, some went Green, some stayed home. Others who are angry but didn't vote in 2013 showed up and voted NDP, or Green.

Some people who hated Clark in 2013 and stayed home, love her now and voted Liberal in 2017(!)

Bottom line is that it isn't that simple. Looking at the numbers and assuming people went directly from voting BC Lib in 2013 to Green in 2017 is ridiculous.

And as much as Stingray would like us to believe the opposite, the Greens are left of centre in every measure we have.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

And as much as Stingray would like us to believe the opposite, the Greens are left of centre in every measure we have.

Haha. Honestly... is there a full moon out there tonight?

I have posted herein on numerous... and I mean NUMEROUS occasions that the BC Greens have positioned themselves as federal "red" Liberals. Andrew Weaver even recently stated that the BC Greens attracted 2015 fed Liberal voters in the media.

Will let ya in on a little something... on Twitter, over the past couple of years, I have had numerous dialogues with Andrew Weaver. Like the guy. Totally down to earth and straight forward and agrees with me re: their federal Liberal centrist positioning. Was then surprised that he began to personally "DM" me on Twitter - last DM was couple of days before TV leaders debate. Will never reveal the contents of same but understand Weaver's mindset.

Moreover, after 2017 TV exposure, everyone in my world likes the guy. So much so that some may even consider voting for Weaver in the next election. Also corroborated by polling data (irrespective of polling methodology).

PS. After analyzing 2013/2017 popular vote share changes along with historical data... one does not need to be a rocket scientist to ascertain 2013 ---> 2017 voter migration net overall numbers as well as understanding underlying changes thereto. Kinda like - numbers just don't lie.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Haha. Honestly... is there a full moon out there tonight?

I have posted herein on numerous... and I mean NUMEROUS occasions that the BC Greens have positioned themselves as federal "red" Liberals. Andrew Weaver even recently stated that the BC Greens attracted 2015 fed Liberal voters in the media.

Will let ya in on a little something... on Twitter, over the past couple of years, I have had numerous dialogues with Andrew Weaver. Like the guy. Totally down to earth and straight forward and agrees with me re: their federal Liberal centrist positioning. Was then surprised that he began to personally "DM" me on Twitter - last DM was couple of days before TV leaders debate. Will never reveal the contents of same but understand Weaver's mindset.

Moreover, after 2017 TV exposure, everyone in my world likes the guy. So much so that some may even consider voting for Weaver in the next election. Also corroborated by polling data (irrespective of polling methodology).

PS. After analyzing 2013/2017 popular vote share changes along with historical data... one does not need to be a rocket scientist to ascertain 2013 ---> 2017 voter migration net overall numbers as well as understanding underlying changes thereto. Kinda like - numbers just don't lie.

Weaver didn't come across as that down to earth in his post-election interviews: "I didn't leave my position as Respected Climate Scientist just to become a cabinet minister". Full of himself sod is more like it.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Haha. Honestly... is there a full moon out there tonight?

I have posted herein on numerous... and I mean NUMEROUS occasions that the BC Greens have positioned themselves as federal "red" Liberals. Andrew Weaver even recently stated that the BC Greens attracted 2015 fed Liberal voters in the media.

Will let ya in on a little something... on Twitter, over the past couple of years, I have had numerous dialogues with Andrew Weaver. Like the guy. Totally down to earth and straight forward and agrees with me re: their federal Liberal centrist positioning. Was then surprised that he began to personally "DM" me on Twitter - last DM was couple of days before TV leaders debate. Will never reveal the contents of same but understand Weaver's mindset.

Moreover, after 2017 TV exposure, everyone in my world likes the guy. So much so that some may even consider voting for Weaver in the next election. Also corroborated by polling data (irrespective of polling methodology).

PS. After analyzing 2013/2017 popular vote share changes along with historical data... one does not need to be a rocket scientist to ascertain 2013 ---> 2017 voter migration net overall numbers as well as understanding underlying changes thereto. Kinda like - numbers just don't lie.

There must be a full moon if you're positioning yourself as some kind of BC Political insider who exchanges private messages with the leader of one of the parties...

I've seen your twitter feed, it's quite partisan towards the BC Libs.

Look, I respect that this is a big hobby for you and you put a lot of effort and time into your analysis. But you can't sit here and say Weaver and the Greens are a center party, when their entire platform is far left of center, and they even got endorsements by such blow-hard loony enviros as David Suzuki (whom I have little to no respect for).

Either the Greens are far left, or they are full of —.

Maybe you are just having trouble coming to grips with the fact that you like them and they are far left.

[Spork]

Honest question - how can one say conclusively that the Greens stole votes from the BC Liberals rather than the BCNDP took votes from the BC Liberals and the Greens took votes from the BCNDP (yes, these two scenarios are different)? Given that the Greens are further left than the NDP, and I find it hard to believe that many people would skip from the right to the left without going through the centre.

I would love to see some conclusive data that determines how votes shifted.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Spork

Honest question - how can one say conclusively that the Greens stole votes from the BC Liberals rather than the BCNDP took votes from the BC Liberals and the Greens took votes from the BCNDP (yes, these two scenarios are different)? Given that the Greens are further left than the NDP, and I find it hard to believe that many people would skip from the right to the left without going through the centre.

I would love to see some conclusive data that determines how votes shifted.

You'd have to conduct a study asking people how they voted in 2013 and 2017, maybe even in prior elections to see a pattern. Simple in theory, I'm not sure this type of study gets conducted a lot though.

But then, the reasons could be all over the place. Could be the local rep, could be the leader, etc.

[cornholio]

Originally Posted by Docere

I think the Greens are a mixture. I think there are some "left of the NDP" types but also a lot of small-"l" liberals and voters that just prioritize the environment.

They seem to be an option for well-off voters too who don't like Christy Clark or the right, but also can't bring themselves to voting for the "workers' party" (even as the NDP is less that in the past, see Point Grey and Fairview). Weaver represents the wealthiest riding on Van Island and they also do very well in West Van-Sea to Sky.

They look like the Liberal Democrats in Britain in several respects.

That being said, I do think the majority of Green voters want CC out, and even the most small-l liberal or centrist ones would prefer cooperation with the NDP.

You don't have to think it. It is a fact supported by polls whose results are decisive on the issue.

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

http://angusreid.org/working-liberals-may-practical-choice-weaver-not-green-supporters-voted/



If voters see Clark and Weaver specifically working together, it's over for the greens.

Precisely. The only sensible option is a Green NDP coalition that can form a majority and probably a stable government for the next 4 years. A Green Liberal coalition is impossible. Alternatively the Greens COULD support a Lib minority for a time one step at a time before pulling that support and having the NDP step in or forcing a election.

Really though the smart move if the seat count stands is a Green NDP coalition and as far as I know that is precisely what will probably happen.

If that happens what I am most interested in is the effect on the real estate bubble, look at the two's platforms and what they would merge into.

[Waders]

It doesn't matter whether a Green NDP coalition can form a government or Liberals maintains a minority government, it won't be stable.
My prediction is we will be heading back to another election in 2 years.
Hopefully this happens before the economy dives.

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by Docere

Lonsdale is another riding that was a surprise to me.

Not to me, it's very different culturally than the rest of the north shore - young, multi-ethnic, urban, progressive. Lonsdale has become a plan B for the majority who can't afford the downtown peninsula anymore and most of the old blue collar longshoremen types have been chased out, especially with the demolition of Moodyville.

Bowinn Ma didn't just win, she won easily, and it'll only go more left in the foreseeable future.

[Geof]

Originally Posted by Spork

Honest question - how can one say conclusively that the Greens stole votes from the BC Liberals rather than the BCNDP took votes from the BC Liberals and the Greens took votes from the BCNDP (yes, these two scenarios are different)? Given that the Greens are further left than the NDP, and I find it hard to believe that many people would skip from the right to the left without going through the centre.

While I am unconvinced by Stingray's analysis, most voters are not left or right. They do not reflect coherent ideological positions. They are complex bundles of values, identities, interests, beliefs and unexamined common sense that may or may not conflict.

People vote based not on some aggregate calculation across all of these variables, but by focusing on one or a few as critically important. This is framing: voters decide what the election is about, then they vote on that basis. In the U.S. election, the Clinton campaign ran on Competence: but for many voters the frame was Rejecting Elites. This explains why, for the latter group, Trump's incompetence was irrelevant, and why a fair number of Sanders supporters flipped to Trump.

This is why I find it quite plausible that Liberal voters switched to the Green party. Unlike Stingray, I don't think that would say much about the relative ideological position of the Greens and NDP. To the extent that this election had frames, the main ones were Jobs and Corruption. Both are orthogonal to the left-right axis.

The other factor is identity: things like Urban Professional, Working Man, or Suburban Mom. Imagine Neil, a young professional Liberal voter. He works in tech. He owns a condo with his partner (no kids), drives a hybrid car, drinks craft beer, has the latest mobile phone, and shops at Whole Foods. Now imagine Susan, a older suburban NDP voter. Her husband is retired (he used to work at a warehouse), and her kids are grown. She owns a house, drives an older-model car, drinks Tim Hortons coffee, reads the Province and shops at Costco. Who do you think is more likely to flip to the Greens? Liberal Neil, or NDP Susan?