BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th

[urbancanadian]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

I was going to post a long detailed final analysis with corroborating data points, 9 swing/key riding polls, other key data points + key Liberal strategist material musings on their internal poll data (Unlike the cheap public poll freebies... these guys spend $hundreds of thousands on "Rolls Royce-equivalent" CATI methodology data - daily riding tracking polls/provincial polls - they nailed both riding & provincial results in 2013).

But, alas, it' been a loooong day. Suffice to say, those surprised by the election results on 2013 e-day... will be even more surprised by tomorrow night's results.

Grab your bags of popcorn. Gonna be a fun one watching the results come in tomorrow night.

I won't ask you to post all that, but could you say which ridings will be the ones to watch, in your opinion?

[retro_orange]

Originally Posted by bb1510

What christy clark's son posted:

Lol, seems a little too manicured and 'on the nose' for a random rant from a 15yr old, don't 'cha think?

As far as people staying that do have a connection here: I have been trying as hard as i can to stay here but it's becoming a fucking gong show!

I gave up on ever living in the west side where my mom grew up but in the past 5 years I watched a starter fixer upper home in new westminster go from $350-400k to over $800k for the cheapest house now.

In no right mind is that a logical level of appreciation in our suburban real estate. It's bullshit that I should accept it.

and I STILL cannot find a full time job, same with most of my friends.

[retro_orange]

Originally Posted by bb1510

What christy clark's son posted:

Lol, seems a little too manicured and 'on the nose' for a random rant from a 15yr old, don't 'cha think?

As far as people staying that do have a connection here: I have been trying as hard as i can to stay here but it's becoming a fucking gong show!

I gave up on ever living in the west side where my mom grew up but in the past 5 years I watched a starter fixer upper home in new westminster go from $350-400k to over $800k for the cheapest house now.

In no right mind is that a logical level of appreciation in our suburban real estate. It's bullshit that I should accept it.

and I STILL cannot find a decent full time job even with post secondary education., same with most of my friends.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

I was going to post a long detailed final analysis with corroborating data points, 9 swing/key riding polls, other key data points + key Liberal strategist material musings on their internal poll data (Unlike the cheap public poll freebies... these guys spend $hundreds of thousands on "Rolls Royce-equivalent" CATI methodology data - daily riding tracking polls/provincial polls - they nailed both riding & provincial results in 2013).

But, alas, it' been a loooong day. Suffice to say, those surprised by the election results on 2013 e-day... will be even more surprised by tomorrow night's results.

Grab your bags of popcorn. Gonna be a fun one watching the results come in tomorrow night.

So not a single prediction?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by urbancanadian

He's only like 15 I think. It's pretty hard to have your own, developed opinions at that age. Especially when you consider virtually all of the information he takes in is heavily biased.

I just feel uneasy thinking that he's probably been tempted by the people around him to publically assert his positions before really understanding what he's talking about, whether he's right or wrong.

If you think that post came from his thoughts directly, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The greens are polling in the low 20s. They are going to get a ton of votes compared to the seats they actually win.

Green voters will basically assure a BC Liberal victory, which is the Libbies keep talking up Weaver & Co. It's ironic that Green voters will basically guarantee the least environmentally friendly party a lock on power.

[Jebby]

Originally Posted by retro_orange

and I STILL cannot find a decent full time job even with post secondary education., same with most of my friends.

Time to move then. That would be my advice.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

If you think that post came from his thoughts directly, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

Maybe it's that expensive private school education shining through???

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by Jebby

Time to move then. That would be my advice.

People still cannot comprehend that moving is the only alternative they have over trying to scratch by. Vancouver and the surrounding suburbs will continue to get even more unaffordable as demand increases due to population growth and the increase in the number of the global elite. This City is a top tourist destination and attracts the elite from all over the world that want to move from their congested city. The global elite are effectively colonizing Vancouver and there is nothing any level of government can do without severely crippling the economy. This generation was rather lucky it didn't happen sooner but it was an inevitability.

With regards to the election- The BC Libs will easily win as BCers proritize wealth and the status-quo over equality. Calling a Lib majorty with a decent result for the green. I think the NDP will do way worse than they did in 2013.

[Common Sense]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Green voters will basically assure a BC Liberal victory, which is the Libbies keep talking up Weaver & Co. It's ironic that Green voters will basically guarantee the least environmentally friendly party a lock on power.

No, a Green Vote will not guarantee a BC Liberal vote because their vote will take away from both the NDP and the Liberals. Some soft Liberal voters are fed up with Christy Clark and the Liberals and want change. They say the Liberals have been in power too long and change is needed.

The problem with disaffected Liberals is where will they park they vote. Will they go with the NDP or the Greens? If there was a strong Conservative party the disaffected Liberals may vote for them but they are only running 8 candidates. This leaves the Greens as an alternative to the NDP.

[retro_orange]

Originally Posted by Jebby

Time to move then. That would be my advice.

It's a good thing I hold no credibility to your statements.

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by retro_orange

It's a good thing I hold no credibility to your statements.

What else can the people do? Besides revolting or moving...

[retro_orange]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

What else can the people do? Besides revolting or moving...

Revolt sounds like fun.

Besides, I'm still young. I am quite confident sooner or later I will see a spectacular downfall in our real estate.

History always repeats itself. Rarely does something so rapidly appreciate in value and maintain it indefinitely. Market conditions will eventually change, the money will slow down then there will be few people who can justify our prices.

[Common Sense]

The election will be determined by the swing seats. 14 of the seats were won by less than 1000 votes.

Which means all eyes will be on the nine seats the B.C. Liberals won by five per cent or less in 2013: Surrey-Fleetwood (200 votes), Delta North (203 votes), Port Moody-Coquitlam (437), Vancouver-Fraserview (470), Cariboo North (603), Fraser-Nicola (614), Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (620), Burnaby North (688) and North Vancouver-Lonsdale (1,188).

Conceivably, the NDP can win the election by winning these nine ridings the Liberals won by less than 5%. All it need is a small shift in votes.

Does not matter who wins the popular vote. Either the NDP or the Liberals could come ahead in popular vote and still lose the election.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Common Sense

No, a Green Vote will not guarantee a BC Liberal vote because their vote will take away from both the NDP and the Liberals. Some soft Liberal voters are fed up with Christy Clark and the Liberals and want change. They say the Liberals have been in power too long and change is needed.

The problem with disaffected Liberals is where will they park they vote. Will they go with the NDP or the Greens? If there was a strong Conservative party the disaffected Liberals may vote for them but they are only running 8 candidates. This leaves the Greens as an alternative to the NDP.

Except the NDP depends on those "fed up voter" swings to win power. If the Greens siphon it off, its doesn't help the NDP boost their vote total over the Libs in swing ridings.

[retro_orange]

and frankly speaking: a revolt is much more cost effective to achieve than moving.

[Tetsuo]

Originally Posted by Common Sense

The election will be determined by the swing seats. 14 of the seats were won by less than 1000 votes.



Conceivably, the NDP can win the election by winning these nine ridings the Liberals won by less than 5%. All it need is a small shift in votes.

Does not matter who wins the popular vote. Either the NDP or the Liberals could come ahead in popular vote and still lose the election.

There are seats that also swing the other way, towards the Liberals

Burnaby-Lougheed (Popular TV host candidate, following a plagiarist, Coquitlam-Millardville (popular local Korean businessman), Burnaby Deer Lake.

Coquitlam Burke Mountain is probably going to switch back to Liberals

Delta South and the new Richmond East = Liberal

[Common Sense]

One swing riding of interest is Burnaby North where Richard Lee is looking for a 4th term. Each time he wins his margin is smaller.

Since the opposition to Kinder Morgan is so strong there, where would the environmental vote go? Will it go to the NDP or the Greens? Will the Green vote hurt the Liberals or help them?

If Richard Lee wins, that can only mean the Green vote did let the Liberals win by splitting the left wing vote. If the NDP win, that means the Green vote did not hurt them.

[240glt]

Originally Posted by retro_orange

Revolt sounds like fun.

Besides, I'm still young. I am quite confident sooner or later I will see a spectacular downfall in our real estate.

History always repeats itself. Rarely does something so rapidly appreciate in value and maintain it indefinitely. Market conditions will eventually change, the money will slow down then there will be few people who can justify our prices.

Sad thing is I said the same thing back in '99 when I was living in Van right out of college, working as a lowly tech in the building automation industry, making piss all

Moved to Calgary in '01, had to. My wage went up 50% just by moving

Now I could move back to Vancouver and have my pick of the litter of jobs in my field, and still couldn't afford the lifestyle we have here in Edmonton. Edmonton is a shitty city but We could never have in Vancouver what we have here

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by retro_orange

and frankly speaking: a revolt is much more cost effective to achieve than moving.

Organizing, mobilizing and fully executing a revolt is a very costly process. Plus you risk losing lives, and we live in an era where any "revolt" can be crushed with high tech arms.