BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th - Page 31

Stingray2004 · #**601** Posted **Apr 15, 2017, 10:36 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

It's obvious the Greens are Left because Christy keeps talking up Weaver. She knows they will bleed away votes from the NDP and leave the Liberals with a majority.

Incorrect analysis IMHO.

To preface, during the 1950's and 1960's, the CCF/NDP received between 27% - 34% popular vote share in BC. The then federal-linked BC Liberals always received ~20% popular vote share.

1969 BC election results:

Socred: 47%
Liberal: 19%
NDP: 34%

That was the last election, which was a 3-party race. The 1972 election, which Barrett won, saw the BC NDP vote increase to 39% as a result of former "red" BC Liberal voters moving over to the BC NDP.

In 2013, the BC NDP received the same 39% popular vote share.

As I have always stated, the BC Greens are positioning themselves as a greenish,"red" federal Liberal-type party attempting to draw that "red" federal Liberal vote that votes BC NDP provincially.

Just look at the 2015 fed election results in BC - the fed NDP received 26% popular vote in BC share v. BC NDP receiving 39% in the 2013 BC election. Prima facie, 13% of "red" federal Liberal voters in 2015 voted BC NDP in 2013.

Remember that the BC Libs won over the BC NDP by a 4% margin in the last 3 BC elections. If the Greens attract just a few percent of that "red" federal Liberal vote from the BC NDP and the BC Libs win but remain flat - the winning spread margin increases from 4% to 6%+... then marginal 2013 BC NDP seats fall to the BC Libs. And if the BC Greens surge on southern Van Isle surpassing the BC NDP... more 2013 BC NDP seats fall to the BC Greens (or perhaps even BC Libs).

Hypothetically speaking.

THAT'S why CC keeps talking up Weaver. No brainer.

240glt · #**602** Posted **Apr 17, 2017, 2:34 PM**

A friend of mine is running for the Greens in Shuswap riding, his nomination surprised me a bit because he's not your "typical" Green candidate

It'll be interesting to see what happens, but if the Greens pick up support I do think it'll be at the expense of the NDP

Kisai · #**603** Posted **Apr 18, 2017, 9:48 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

It's obvious the Greens are Left because Christy keeps talking up Weaver. She knows they will bleed away votes from the NDP and leave the Liberals with a majority.

My bet is that the Liberals will win, but more people will vote for Green + NDP than Liberal. Much whining will commence, but if you don't vote strategically and let the perfect be the enemy of the good, you'll get the Liberals. Just like Americans who voted for Stein or didn't vote because they preferred Bernie, ended up with Trump.

Considering that is exactly how things went last time around, I'm predicting the Liberals will still win, even though I sit in a "NDP" area, the person running for the NDP is currently on the city council, and the city council/mayor of Burnaby has done nothing but fight the province at the cities expense. SFU Gondola? Too expensive, Evergreen line station? Too expensive. Homeless shelters? Province's responsibility.

Like when it comes down to it, I'm going to vote against the NDP in a NDP "safe riding" because the local politics should not give them a win, but handing that to the Liberals feels like cutting the nose to spite the face.

Aroundtheworld · #**604** Posted **Apr 19, 2017, 12:27 AM**

I'm having a tough time getting behind anybody. It seems like a race to the populist-policy bottom. A lot of pandering, not a lot of leadership.

At least both major parties are committing 40% to rapid transit.

LeftCoaster · #**605** Posted **Apr 19, 2017, 10:36 PM**

Ha I always thought of myself as a centrist.. apparently I was right.

Surprised I wasn't slightly more socially progressive, but the questions didn't really offer many chances to be IMO.

djmk · #**606** Posted **Apr 19, 2017, 10:45 PM**

I had always thought that the Greens were more "left" than the NDP. However, the candidates running in my offices riding in North Burnaby changed that.

I expect North Burnaby to be a serious fight for both the NDP and Libs. This riding wins on just a couple hundred votes each election

Stingray2004 · #**607** Posted **Apr 20, 2017, 1:51 AM**

Yeah. I have also "done" that CBC Vote Compass thingy. Frankly, the questions therein leave alot to be desired IMHO. I also dunno who was responsible for placing the 3 political parties on their purported position on the political spectrum.

The federal Greens, for example, are to the left of the BC Greens. For example, BC Green leader Weaver has rejected the fed Greens anti-Israel policy (albeit to me that is not a relevant matter). BTW, the fed Greens and BC Greens are not connected akin to the BC Libs/fed Libs.

https://thetyee.ca/News/2016/09/13/Green-Uproar/

As an aside, was just looking at the bio for the BC Green candidate in the riding of Vancouver-Fraserview and, based upon his statements therein, about sums up what most BC Green candidates have also stated both directly and indirectly that I have read:

Quote:

British Columbia has a history of highly polarized politics, at least during my lifetime. We used to have the New Democratic Party on the left, and the Social Credit on the right. In 1991 I was enthusiastic when Gordon Wilson brought back the Liberal Party of BC, but disappointed to see liberal displaced by what seemed to be the old Social Credit guard, resulting in a right of centre that more closely resembles a Social Credit agenda.

Not only do I want to see the Green Party succeed in British Columbia, giving voters a political choice between the NDP and Liberals, but I want to be part of that choice.

http://www.bcgreens.ca/vfv

I also notice that 2 above posters have mentioned the ridings of Burnaby-Deer Lake and Burnaby North (indirectly and directly respectively). In that vein and FWIW, I completed an analysis of all 4 Burnaby ridings back on January 29, 2017:

https://bcelection2017-87ridings.blog/2017/01/29/burnaby-4-provincial-ridings-analysis/

Jebby · #**608** Posted **Apr 20, 2017, 4:13 AM**

Unsurprising to say the least.

If I was in BC right now I'd almost definitely vote for the Liberals, 90% of the reason being to prevent the NDP from coming into power.

cornholio · #**609** Posted **Apr 20, 2017, 5:08 AM**

Well if we are sharing.

Figured I would be a bit more left economically. Each year I do feel I shift right and down. If the trend continues I will pass the vertical line within the next 30 years and drop closer to the bottom on the chart...who knows.

Bcasey25raptor · #**610** Posted **Apr 21, 2017, 1:13 AM**

This election is playing out exactly as Stingray said it would about a year ago.

logicbomb · #**611** Posted **Apr 21, 2017, 5:06 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

This election is playing out exactly as Stingray said it would about a year ago.

We all knew this would happen.

I would have to guess NDP support has tanked in the past 2 weeks. They seem to generate support early on only to screw it up with all these insane proposals. The Greens will likely take some of the orange vote and the Libs will retain a majority.

Bcasey25raptor · #**612** Posted **Apr 21, 2017, 5:27 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by logicbomb

We all knew this would happen.

I would have to guess NDP support has tanked in the past 2 weeks. They seem to generate support early on only to screw it up with all these insane proposals. The Greens will likely take some of the orange vote and the Libs will retain a majority.

I'm waiting for the debate next week, I expect Weaver will be extremely popular and the greens will see a surge in support, the NDP vote will collapse and the greens will take most of the NDP supporters, Liberals will win a super majority thanks to split votes.

GlassCity · #**613** Posted **Apr 21, 2017, 6:14 AM**

There was actually a debate today at News1130. I haven't watched it yet, but here's the link:

• Video Link

As far as how the election's going, anything could still happen. Seat projection by Eric Grenier had NDP at 44, Liberals at 39 and Green at 4 as of April 18 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-2017-poll-tracker-1.4054593)

Obviously it's hard to trust polls after last election, but I wouldn't panic yet. Seems to me like it's anyone's game at the moment.

Jebby · #**614** Posted **Apr 21, 2017, 3:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I'm waiting for the debate next week, I expect Weaver will be extremely popular and the greens will see a surge in support, the NDP vote will collapse and the greens will take most of the NDP supporters, Liberals will win a super majority thanks to split votes.

Will be praying for that outcome!

CanSpice · #**615** Posted **Apr 21, 2017, 4:46 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I'm waiting for the debate next week, I expect Weaver will be extremely popular and the greens will see a surge in support, the NDP vote will collapse and the greens will take most of the NDP supporters, Liberals will win a super majority thanks to split votes.

In New Westminster it looks like the Green candidate is splitting the vote, but pulling from both the NDP and Liberal candidates. It helps that she's a pretty popular school board trustee (formerly chair until she announced her candidacy) that pushed the Province hard enough to finally get a new high school built, something nobody's been able to do for the last twenty years. The last unofficial internal polling I heard (can't remember which party did the polling though) was something like 34% NDP, 32% Green, 27% Liberal. Compared to the last election (48.7% NDP, 8.4% Green, 33.4% Liberal) she's pulling more from the NDP but it's hardly the case where that's the only party she's stealing from.

People always say that New Westminster is a safe NDP seat. Those people aren't living in New West.

CanSpice · #**616** Posted **Apr 21, 2017, 5:05 PM**

It's also interesting to watch the Sauder Prediction Market, which has the popular vote at 41% Liberal, 40.1% NDP, 15.6% Green, and the seat share at 47.6% Liberal, 44.6% NDP, 6.3% Green. They say that their predictions of popular vote are often more accurate than public opinion polls.

Then again they got spanked in the 2013 election, predicting the NDP would get 61 seats to the Liberals' 35. Whoops.

Bcasey25raptor · #**617** Posted **Apr 21, 2017, 6:40 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanSpice

In New Westminster it looks like the Green candidate is splitting the vote, but pulling from both the NDP and Liberal candidates. It helps that she's a pretty popular school board trustee (formerly chair until she announced her candidacy) that pushed the Province hard enough to finally get a new high school built, something nobody's been able to do for the last twenty years. The last unofficial internal polling I heard (can't remember which party did the polling though) was something like 34% NDP, 32% Green, 27% Liberal. Compared to the last election (48.7% NDP, 8.4% Green, 33.4% Liberal) she's pulling more from the NDP but it's hardly the case where that's the only party she's stealing from.

People always say that New Westminster is a safe NDP seat. Those people aren't living in New West.

Yep, I can't watch, The NDP still thinks they stand a chance, it's depressing knowing they don't.

This election reminds me of what I've read about the 1991 election. Except the left is split and not the right.

logicbomb · #**618** Posted **Apr 27, 2017, 3:10 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Yep, I can't watch, The NDP still thinks they stand a chance, it's depressing knowing they don't.

This election reminds me of what I've read about the 1991 election. Except the left is split and not the right.

The NDP's slim hope is surely gone after that debate. What a gong-show by John Horgan and the NDP- not only did he lose his temper but he resorted to childish insults and was the sole person in that room rudely interrupting others.

Again, the NDP still has not learned from their past mistakes. They continue to put forth vague plans and flip-flop on big issues.

Weaver totally clowned him with the "so you're making a plan to plan for a plan?" to which Horgan got extremely defensive and went on a incoherent tirade after.

The NDP will get demolished this election.

csbvan · #**619** Posted **Apr 27, 2017, 3:30 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Yep, I can't watch, The NDP still thinks they stand a chance, it's depressing knowing they don't.

This election reminds me of what I've read about the 1991 election. Except the left is split and not the right.

And yet, the April trend lines don't look like that at all. If you look at Eric Grenier's polltracker, the Greens are making moderate gains, however the decrease in Liberal support is matched by an almost equal uptick in NDP support:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-2017-poll-tracker-1.4054593

I don't know what to make of the BC electorate, but I would not jump to conclusions about vote splits. If the province wants change, it will probably go for it. Look at the last Federal election, the Conservatives lost more votes in this province than the rest of the country combined, and the Liberals and NDP both saw gains. The vote didn't split so much as it went to different alternatives in different places.

Bcasey25raptor · #**620** Posted **Apr 27, 2017, 3:57 AM**

Betcha the greens surge in the polls after this, the NDP collapses, and the Liberals win a majority in 2 weeks.