Quote:
Originally Posted by optimusREIM
Toronto has the attitude of a big american city and having an NFL would help bolster that, I have no doubt that Torontonians would support a franchise in droves. The only reason the CFL does't do well is that the people in the GTA think that it's below them or something.
I don't know that the NFL would move in in the next 5 years even, but I would be shocked if it didn't happen at all. After all, the NFL must be salivating over an untapped market over 7 million strong. If lowly Green Bay, WI can support a team, surely Toronto is capable, and likely more than fit for the task.
The final factor to consider is that the NFL would love nothing more than to have a successful international footprint (talks about London etc.). Having a team in Canada would be a logical step and Toronto the most obvious beneficiary of NFL expansionism.
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Several notable obstacles will probably keep the NFL out of Toronto.
1. The Bills are ~150km away and draw a significant portion of their fanbase from Southern Ontario. Whereas, there are no competing NBA or MLB teams for hundreds of kilometers, so a Toronto team has exclusivity for a large area.
2. The Skydome is an inadequate venue for NFL needs. That means a new stadium. As new NFL stadiums run $1.5-2 billion each, it's far too rich for a government to consider supporting it, as it would compete with an existing venue in a prime location. Especially when several US cities will gladly subsidize venues (see: Las Vegas)
3. The Bills-Toronto series was not the success envisioned by Rogers and the NFL. After the initial novelty wore off attendance plummeted.
4. The CFL would object to it. The CFL has struggled in eastern Canada and a NFL team would likely help to kill the Argos. Eastern Canada isn't much of a football market, despite the population. The presence of the NFL would dilute those fans further.
5. As mentioned before, the TV contract. The NFL already makes money from Canada by licencing games to CTV/TSN. A Toronto team might help improve those numbers a bit, but I have my doubts if it would make enough of a difference to matter to the NFL. Also, as mentioned before, it's not good if the presence of a Canadian team hurts ratings in the US - the golden goose of markets. A small loss in ratings in the US would easily destroy any gain in Canadian ratings.
6. Green Bay is an anomaly as a market. It is something more akin to Saskatchewan for the Roughriders - an ultra dedicated fanbase that supports a team well out of proportion to its population. Aside from the Maple Leafs, no team has that kind of support in Toronto. The Jays and Raptors have lost attendance when their teams have played poorly. The only silver lining to the Toronto market is that it is so huge that attendance never declines enough to cause the team to fold.